2021 Kentucky Derby Preview

April 27, 2021Updated May 1st 10:15 AM CST

Note: For my update betting strategies, please visit this link and scroll to the bottom of the page: https://coxsportsnet.com/2021/04/27/2021-kentucky-derby-preview/

As we return to normalcy from the pandemic, the Run for the Roses also fortunately returns to its usual spot on the calendar–the first Saturday in May. Unlike last year, fans will be allowed but attendance will be capped at about 60% capacity. Overall, this is welcome news for the most exciting two-minutes spectacle in sports. I generally feel that this will be a good betting race and that it will live up to its billing by providing an exciting finish.

This will be “Must-See-TV” and NBC will once again televise the event. Coverage begins this Saturday at 12:30 p.m ET on NBCSN and from 2:30 to 7:30 p.m. on NBC.

Below is the starting field for the 147th Kentucky Derby with post-positions, morning line odds and jockey assignments. Note that all horses and their sires are hyperlinked to their Equibase profiles to facilitate personal handicapping.

2021 Kentucky Derby Starting Field

1) Known Agenda (6/1) – The Florida Derby winner. In the last 20 years, the Florida Derby has produced the most Kentucky Derby winners. He’s got a great trainer/jockey combination in Todd Pletcher and Irad Ortiz Jr.

Career: 6 Starts 3-1-1-0 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 1
Last 3 starts: 5th–>1st–>1st
Sire: Curlin (Finished 3rd in the 2007 Kentucky Derby)
Trainer: Todd Pletcher (2010 & 2017 Kentucky Derby Winning Trainer)
Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr
Fastest 1 1/8th Mile Time: 1:49.45 – 2021 Florida Derby
Career Best Brisnet Speed Figure: 101 – 2021 Florida Derby

2) Like the King (50/1) – The Jeff Ruby Steaks winner. His last three starts have all come on an all-weather surface at Turfway Park.

Career: 6 Starts 3-2-1-0 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 0
Last 3 starts: 1st–>2nd–>1st
Sire: Palace Malice (Finished 12th in the 2013 Kentucky Derby)
Trainer: Wesley Ward
Jockey: Drayden Van Dyke
Fastest 1 1/8th Mile Time: 1:50.22 – 2021 Jeff Ruby Steaks
Career Best Brisnet Speed Figure: 94- 2021 Jeff Ruby Steaks

3) Brooklyn Strong (50/1) – The Remsen Stakes winner where he produced a 107 Brisnet Speed Figure back in early December. That’s the best Brisnet Speed Figure that any horse has ever produced in this field. Brooklyn Strong disappointed in the Wood Memorial finishing fifth. But he was coming off a nearly four month layoff.

Career: 6 Starts 1-2-1-0 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 0
Last 3 starts: 1st-->1st-->5th
Sire: Wicked Strong
Trainer: Daniel Velazquez
Jockey: Umberto Rispoli
Fastest 1 1/8th Mile Time: 1:50.60 – 2020 Remsen Stakes
Career Best Brisnet Speed Figure: 107 – 2020 Remsen Stakes

4) Keepmeinmind (50/1) – The Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes winner back in November of last year. His three-year-old campaign has been lackluster. He finished sixth in the Rebel Stakes and fifth in the Blue Grass Stakes

Career: 6 Starts 1-2-1-0 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 0
Last 3 starts: 1st-->6th–>5th
Sire: Laoban
Trainer: Robertino Diodoro
Jockey: David Cohen
Fastest 1 1/8th Mile Time: 1:51.06 (estimated) – 2021 Blue Grass Stakes
Career Best Brisnet Speed Figure: 98 – 2020 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile

5) Sainthood (50/1) – An inexperienced colt with just three career starts. He finished second in the Jeff Ruby Steaks race but he had an absolutely horrible trip (shown below). A deserved 50-1 morning line longshot but he has Corie Lanerie as his jockey, one of the best at Churchill Downs.

Career: 3 Starts 1-2-0-0 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 0
Last 3 starts: 2nd–>1st–>2nd
Sire: Mshawish
Trainer: Todd Pletcher (2010 & 2017 Kentucky Derby Winning Trainer)
Jockey: Corie Lanerie
Fastest 1 1/8th Mile Time: 1:50.38 (estimated) – 2021 Jeff Ruby Steaks
Career Best Brisnet Speed Figure: 93 – 2021 Jeff Ruby Steaks

6) O Besos (20/1) – He finished 4th in the Risen Star Stakes and 3rd in the Louisiana Derby. He will be a longshot greater than 20/1 come post-time.

Career: 5 Starts 2-0-1-1 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 0
Last 3 starts: 1st-->4th–>3rd
Sire: Orb (2013 Kentucky Derby Winner)
Trainer: Gregory Foley
Jockey: Marcelino Pedroza
Fastest 1 1/8th Mile Time: 1:51.59 (estimated) – 2021 Risen Star Stakes
Career Best Brisnet Speed Figure: 94 – 2021 Louisiana Derby

7) Mandaloun (15/1) – Trainer Brad Cox’s other entry in the Derby. Mandaloun won the Risen Star Stakes in February but had a disappointing sixth place finish in the Louisiana Derby.

Career: 5 Starts 3-0-1-0 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 0
Last 3 starts: 3rd–>1st–>6th
Sire: Into Mischief
Trainer: Brad Cox
Jockey: Florent Geroux
Fastest 1 1/8th Mile Time: 1:50.39 – 2021 Risen Star Stakes
Career Best Brisnet Speed Figure: 100 – 2021 Risen Star Stakes

8) Medina Spirit (15/1) – Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert’s lone entry in the Kentucky Derby. Medina Spirit won the Robert B. Lewis Stakes in January. He then followed up this winning effort with two disappointing second place finishes in the San Felipe Stakes and Santa Anita Derby. Baffert and Velazquez won the Kentucky Derby last year with Authentic. I don’t see it happening again this year with Medina Spirit.

Career: 5 Starts 2-3-0-0 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 0
Last 3 starts: 1st-->2nd–>2nd
Sire: Protonico
Trainer: Bob Baffert (1997,1998, 2003, 2015, 2018 & 2020 Kentucky Derby Winning Trainer)
Jockey: John Velazquez (2011, 2017 and 2020 Kentucky Derby Winner)
Fastest 1 1/8th Mile Time: 1:49.85 (estimated) – 2021 Santa Anita Derby
Career Best Brisnet Speed Figure: 99 – 2021 Santa Anita Derby

9) Hot Rod Charlie (8/1)  – The Louisiana Derby winner. He finished 2nd in the 2020 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile to Essential Quality. He has a Kentucky Derby winning trainer (Doug O’Neill) and jockey (Flavian Prat).

Career: 7 Starts 2-1-2-1 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 0
Last 3 starts: 2nd->3rd–>1st
Sire: Oxbow (Finished 6th in the 2013 Kentucky Derby)
Trainer: Doug O’Neill (2012 & 2016 Kentucky Derby Winning Trainer)
Jockey: Flavian Prat (2019 Kentucky Derby Winner)
Fastest 1 1/8th Mile Time: N/A
Career Best Brisnet Speed Figure: 100 – 2020 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile

10) Midnight Bourbon (20/1) – The Lecomte Stakes winner. In 7 career starts, he has never finished out of the Trifecta. Plus he gets Hall of Fame jockey Mike Smith.

11) Dynamic One (20/1) – The runner-up in the Wood Memorial Stakes where he lost by a head to the 72-1 longshot Bourbonic.

Career: 5 Starts 1-2-0-1 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 0
Last 3 starts: 4th–>1st–>2nd
Sire: Union Rags (Finished 7th in the 2012 Kentucky Derby)
Trainer: Todd Pletcher (2010 & 2017 Kentucky Derby Winning Trainer) .
Jockey: Jose Ortiz
Fastest 1 1/8th Mile Time: 1:55.51 (estimated) – 2021 Wood Memorial Stakes
Career Best Brisnet Speed Figure: 95 – 2020 Maiden Special Weight at Gulfstream Park

12) Helium (50/1) – The Tampa Bay Derby winner is undefeated in three career starts. He is sort of a wildcard since he hasn’t raced since March 6th. He will be well-rested and you got to feel like he has improved since his last start.

Career: 3 Starts 3-0-0-0 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 0
Last 3 starts:  1st–>1st–>1st
Sire: Ironicus 
Trainer: Mark Casse
Jockey: Julien Leparoux
Fastest 1 1/8th Mile Time: N/A
Career Best Brisnet Speed Figure: 93 – 2021 Tampa Bay Derby

13) Hidden Stash (50/1) – He finished fourth in the Blue Grass Stakes and ten lengths behind the winner. His best finish was a second-place finish in the Tampa Bay Derby (shown below). He is a very deserving 50-1 longshot.

Career: 7 Starts 2-1-2-2 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 0
Last 3 starts: 3rd->2nd–>4th
Sire: Constitution
Trainer: Victoria Oliver
Jockey: Rafael Bejarano
Fastest 1 1/8th Mile Time: 1:50.10 (estimated) – 2021 Blue Grass Stakes
Career Best Brisnet Speed Figure: 93 – 2021 Tampa Bay Derby

14) Essential Quality (2/1) – The Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and Blue Grass Stakes winner and the consensus Kentucky Derby favorite. He’s undefeated in five career starts. However, he will be trying to become the first Blue Grass Stakes winner to win the Derby since Strike the Gold in 1991. He will be ridden by jockey Luis Saez who had his 2019 Kentucky Derby victory taken away from him by race stewards riding Maximum Security.

Career: 5 Starts 5-0-0-0  Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 1
Last 3 starts: 1st–>1st–>1st
Sire: Tapit (Finished 9th in the 2004 Kentucky Derby)
Trainer: Brad Cox
Jockey: Luis Saez
Fastest 1 1/8th Mile Time: 1:48.50 – 2021 Blue Grass Stakes
Career Best Brisnet Speed Figure: 102 – 2021 Blue Grass Stakes

15) Rock Your World (5/1) – The Santa Anita Derby winner. He is undefeated in three career starts. He will try to do what Justify did in 2018, win the Kentucky Derby without any prep races as a 2-year-old.

Career: 3 Starts 3-0-0-0 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 1
Last 3 starts: 1st–>1st–>1st
Sire: Candy Ride
Trainer: John Sadler
Jockey: Joel Rosario (2013 Kentucky Derby Winner)
Fastest 1 1/8th Mile Time: 1:49.17 – 2021 Santa Anita Derby
Career Best Brisnet Speed Figure: 102 – 2021 Santa Anita Derby

16) King Fury (20/1) – The Lexington Stakes winner in the mud. File that away in case we get an off-track on Saturday. He has never raced further than 8 1/2 furlongs (1 & 1/16th mile)

Career: 6 Starts 3-0-0-0 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 0
Last 3 starts: 7th->5th–>1st
Sire: Curlin (Finished 3rd in the 2007 Kentucky Derby)
Trainer: Ken McPeek
Jockey: Brian Hernandez Jr
Fastest 1 1/8th Mile Time: N/A
Career Best Brisnet Speed Figure: 95 – 2021 Lexington Stakes

17) Highly Motivated (10/1) – Although this colt finished second in his last two starts, he had produced three consecutive 102 Brisnet Speed Figures. He is consistent. So this is definitely a horse to include in your exotic bets.

Career: 5 Starts 2-2-1-0 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 0
Last 3 starts: 1st–>3rd–>2nd
Sire: Into Mischief
Trainer: Chad Brown
Jockey: Javier Castellano
Fastest 1 1/8th Mile Time: 1:48.54 (estimated) – 2021 Blue Grass Stakes
Career Best Brisnet Speed Figure: 102 – 2021 Blue Grass Stakes

18) Super Stock (30/1) – The surprise Arkansas Derby winner defeating the race favorite in the Baffert-trained Concert Tour. Super Stock is trained by Steve Asmussen and owned by Asmussen’s father Keith. They were happy to get this colt in the Derby field. Although I wouldn’t place any win bets on him, the Arkansas Derby usually produces good Derby runners. So consider him in your exotic bets.

Career: 8 Starts 2-2-2-1 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 1
Last 3 starts: 2nd–>4th–>1st
Sire: Dialed In (Finished 8th in the 2011 Kentucky Derby)
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
Jockey: Ricardo Santana Jr
Fastest 1 1/8th Mile Time: 1:50.92 – 2021 Arkansas Derby
Career Best Brisnet Speed Figure: 97 – 2021 Arkansas Derby

19) Soup and Sandwich (30/1) – The Mark Casse-trained colt finished second in the Florida Derby. He is inexperienced with just three career starts. That worked for Justify in 2018 but rarely ever did before.

Career: 3 Starts 2-0-0-0 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 0
Last 3 starts: 1st–>1st–>2nd
Sire: Into Mischief
Trainer: Mark Casse
Jockey: Tyler Gafflione
Fastest 1 1/8th Mile Time: 1:49.88 (estimated) – 2021 Florida Derby
Career Best Brisnet Speed Figure: 98 – 2021 Florida Derby

20) Bourbonic (30/1) – The 72-1 longshot won the Wood Memorial Stakes winner. He’s a closer and they always have a fighting chance in the Derby if the opening fractions are fast. I like him in my Superfectas.

Career: 6 Starts 3-1-0-0 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 0
Last 3 starts: 1st–>2nd–>1st
Sire: Bernardini
Trainer: Todd Pletcher (2010 & 2017 Kentucky Derby Winning Trainer)
Jockey: Kendrick Carmouche
Fastest 1 1/8th Mile Time: 1:54.49 – 2021 Wood Memorial Stakes
Career Best Brisnet Speed Figure: 94 – 2021 Wood Memorial Stakes

Who’s my Derby Favorite?

I think this race comes down to three contenders: Essential Quality, Known Agenda and Rock Your World. I was a bit surprised that Essential Quality was given 2/1 odds. I think 3/1 would be more appropriate. Although Essential Quality is my Derby favorite, he is no slam dunk. Why? Although he won the Eclipse Trainer of the Year award in 2020, Brad Cox (Essential Quality’s trainer) has never won the Kentucky Derby. In fact, he is fielding his first two Kentucky Derby runners in Essential Quality and Mandaloun. You kind of feel that you have to lose one before you win one. But maybe the Racing Gods will smile on Cox.

Also, very few Blue Grass Stakes runners have won the Kentucky Derby. Only four have found the Winner’s Circle. The last was Street Sense in 2007 who finished second in the Blue Grass Stakes. The only Blue Grass Stakes winner that went on to win the Derby was Strike the Gold in 1991.

My second favorite is the Florida Derby winner Known Agenda. The Florida Derby has produced the most Kentucky Derby winners the past twenty years. I like his trainer/jockey combo. I also love the way he dealt with traffic coming out onto the stretch in that Florida Derby. This is something that I have concerns about with Rock Your World, my third favorite.

Rock Your World got off to a great start in the Santa Anita Derby and had no traffic to deal with. He pretty much wired the Santa Anita Derby field. He is fast but I doubt that he will get that good of a trip in the 20 horse field of the Derby. Also, he is inexperienced with just three careers starts and did not run as a 2-year-old. That worked for Justify in 2018 but never did during the whole 20th Century. In case you have forgotten, before Justify, the last horse to win the Kentucky Derby without having run as a 2-year-old was Apollo in 1882.

I will post my betting strategies on Friday on my Cox Sportsnet website at: https://coxsportsnet.com/2021/04/27/2021-kentucky-derby-preview/

2020 Pegasus World Cup Preview

Pegasus 2020 Logo

January 22nd 2020 – Updated January 25th 2020 5:20 PM EST

Coming up Saturday, we get our first big horse race of the year with the fourth annual Pegasus World Cup at Gulfstream Park. The Pegasus World Cup was the richest horse race in the world in 2017 and 2018 with purses of $12 Million and $16 Million respectively. Last year, the purse was reduced to $9 Million. This year it was reduced again down to $3 Million, the same purse size as the Kentucky Derby.

This race would have been more interesting had Maximum Security been entered as everyone hoped. But Maximum Security’s owner Gary West is bypassing the Pegasus in favor of the $20 million Saudi Cup scheduled for February 29th.

Below are the official entries, post-positions, jockey assignments and morning line odds for this year’s Pegasus World Cup scheduled for Saturday, January 25th at Gulfstream Park. Post time is 5:34 PM EST.  The race will be televised on NBC with coverage beginning at 4:30 PM EST. All horses will carry 124 lbs weight.

2020 Pegasus World Cup 1 1/8th mile 

Post Position/ Horse/Jockey/Trainer/Odds
1. True Timber – Bravo/McLaughlin – 20/1
2. Tax – J. Ortiz/Gargan – 12/1  
3. Diamond Oops – Leparoux/Biancone – 20/1
4. Seeking the Soul – Velazquez/Stewart – 30/1   
5. Omaha Beach – Smith/Mandella – 7/5  (Scratched)
6. Higher Power – Prat/Sadler – 6/1  
7. War Story – Rosario/Dobles – 30/1
8. Mr Freeze – Saez/Romans – 30/1  
9. Spun to Run – Castellano/Guerrero – 7/2  (Scratched
10. Mucho Gusto – I. Ortiz Jr/Baffert – 9/2    
11. Tenfold – Gafflione/Asmussen – 30/1
12. Bodexpress – Jaramillo/Gargan – 30/1  

Race Analysis: With the scratches of Omaha Beach and Spun to Run, this scrambles up my original handicapping. The race favorite and my new favorite to win will be Mucho Gusto. Jockey Irad Ortiz Jr, who won beat Omaha Beach in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile aboard Spun to Run, opted to switch mounts and jump onboard Bob Baffert’s entry Mucho Gusto. This was a surprising move at the time but Baffert claims that Mucho Gusto has been training well of late.

Perhaps a step up from 8 to 9 furlongs is another reason that factored in Ortiz’s decision since Spun to Run’s best finish at 9 furlongs was his third place in the Haskell Invitational where he finished behind Maximum Security and Mucho Gusto.

I like Mucho Gusto being keyed to win in exotics with Tax, Higher Power, Mr Freeze, Diamond Oops and War Story. I will add that Mucho Gusto is no lock and I’m not betting big on this race. Respected handicappers are all over the board on who they think the race winner will be and a lot of them don’t like Mucho Gusto due to his last performance in the Remington Stakes. I asked my respected horse racing handicapping friends for their picks and nobody wants any part of this one. You have horses coming off long layoffs, so anything can happen. My advice, make smaller trifecta and superfecta bets. I did 10 over 2,6 over 2,6 over 2,3,6,7,12.

Right now, Mucho Gusto and Higher Power are both around 3-1. With Higher Power having issues eating a few days ago, you have to wonder how his stamina will be today.

I will update this blog clear up until post-time in case there are any scratches or the weather changes. Right now, weather.com shows it will be sunny and clear with temps in the 70s. Also note that you can find free past performances for this race by clicking HERE

Also, I am on Twitter and you can add me at https://twitter.com/totallyfearless

–Michael

The Crazy Money In Horse Racing

Reviewing my Facebook memories yesterday, I stumbled upon some pictures I took of my son Anthony and I’s trip to Lexington, Kentucky in 2015 for the Breeders’ Cup World Championships. We were there to see American Pharoah win the very first Grand Slam of Thoroughbred racing.

As a part of this trip, we took horse farm tours that I highly recommend to anyone visiting Lexington. I was saddened when I saw this picture of Holy Bull (shown below) that I took on my tour. Holy Bull passed away in 2017 at the ripe old age of 26. He loved visitors to his stable and he seemed to know that he was still sort of a big deal.

Now onto the mian point of this article, the crazy money in horse racing. As many of my readers already know from some of my previous blogs and articles on US Racing, I have been real critical of the foolish money thrown around for unproven yearlings and 2 year-olds. Millions of dollars are spent every year in these auctions.

Everyone thinks they have done their homework and are bidding on the next Kentucky Derby winner based on its pedigree, physical characteristics and demeanor during auction presentation.

I am used to seeing classic cars sold for hundreds of thousands of dollars and I understand that mostly. But some of these young horses fetch over seven figures in auctions. Yes that is right. One million dollars for totally unproven yearlings. Perhaps the best example of this is the American Pharoah filly who went for $8.2 million dollars last month in the Keeneland September Sale last month. See: https://www.wave3.com/2019/09/11/american-pharoah-filly-sells-record-million/

Here is a good story. One of the tours took us to the same farm and horse stable where Zenyatta was born and raised. At this stable, the opportunistic photographer in me took the picture below of one of the stalls that housed a weanling. From memory, this was the same stall where Zenyatta was born. I had hoped to potentially capture greatness in its infancy.

When reviewing this picture, I decided to research and see what became of this unnamed weanling, born 3/19/2015, whose sire was Bernardini and whose dam was Zardana.

This weanling from Bernadini and Zardana was sold for $520,000 under the name Dominant Strategy in the same 2016 Keeneland Yearling September Sale as Justify. Justify was sold for $20,000 less at an even $500,000  See Hip 149 and Hip 50 in the auction results linked here: https://www.bloodhorse.com/…/keeneland-2016-september-yearl…

Justify was the 13th Triple Crown Champion.

Dominant Strategy won two turf claiming races at Saratoga for trainer Chad Brown http://www.equibase.com/profiles/Results.cfm…

This is why I cringe when I see a million dollars spent on a yearling or a 2 year-old. It’s always a crapshoot.

Here is what recent Kentucky Derby winners sold for in auctions. I excluded this year’s Derby winner because it was debacle:

  • 2015 – American Pharoah – $300,000 as a yearling
  • 2016 – Nyquist – $230,000 as a yearling, $400,000 as a 2 year-old
  • 2017 – Always Dreaming – $350,000 as a yearling
  • 2018 – Justify – $500,000 as a yearling

I have always felt that one of my most untapped talents would be budget racehorse buying in auctions. I can’t save you hundreds of dollars on your auto insurance. But I feel that I could justify (no pun intended) a six figure salary identifying bargains.

With all the foolish dollars spent in horse racing, why don’t they have capologists like they do in professional sports? The capologist’s job is to maintain a budget and not overpay for free agents. And how long will it be before someone develops a software program and database used for prospective horse buyers that analyzes the future earning potential of every horse up for auction?

With all the crazy money spent in horse racing, if they don’t already have some of these concepts already, it won’t be long.

–Michael

Bucket List Horse Races: The Palio di Siena; Italy’s Oldest Horse Race. Part 2

2014-09-21 01.42.20

July 1st 2019

I just posted the 2nd part of my feature article for tomorrow’s Palio di Siena on my Cox Sportsnet website. The article can be accessed by clicking on the Hyperlink below:

Bucket List Horse Races: The Palio di Siena: Part 2

The first leg is set for tomorrow July 2nd at 7:30 PM local time which, for North American audiences, would be 1:30 PM EST, 12:30 PM CST, 11:30 AM MST and 10:30 AM PST.

–Michael