Seven Sensational Horses to consider for your Kentucky Derby Future Wagers Pool #2

With the Kentucky Future Wagers Pool #2 coming up February 6th, here are seven horses to consider. There are always a few sleepers that emerge every March. However, I feel this list represents your best 2015 Kentucky Derby potential winners provided that they remain healthy.

Last year, California Chrome wasn’t listed in Pool #1 but was included in Pool #2 and all subsequent pools. So I feel pretty confident that the eventual 2015 Kentucky Derby winner will be in this upcoming Pool #2. If you had the foresight to bet $25 in each of the four pools on California Chrome last year (by betting $25 on “All other 3 year olds” in Pool #1), your $100 would have paid out $1,942.50–a $1842.50 profit. Whereas, betting $100 Win bet on California Chrome on race day would have paid out $350.

The profile of a typical Kentucky Derby winner is that 75.7% are Kentucky bred. California Chrome was the exception and not the norm last year being a California bred horse. California has produced only four Kentucky Derby winners with the last (before California Chrome) being Decidedly who won in 1962.  Florida is the next best state at producing Kentucky Derby winners with six.

Another stat to consider is that the roughly 70% of Kentucky Derby winners won their first race in their first or second start–which California Chrome accomplished. As long as a horse wins in his first four starts and gets hot in February and March, I am fine with it. Also, probably a more important stat, thirteen out of the last fifteen Kentucky Derby winners broke their maiden by December 1st of their 2-year-old campaign. All the horses in my top seven won their first race by December 1st.

Note: blue bold fonts are linked to race videos or references

1) Texas Red  (Kentucky Bred – Won in 3rd start) – Derby Points: 12

Current Vegas Odds: 12-1 – Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool #1 Final Odds: 14-1
5 Starts, 2 Wins, Win Pct: 40%, Graded Stakes Pct: 50%
Last Three Starts:  1st, 3rd (93 Beyer), 1st (104 Beyer)
Average Beyer Speed Figure of Last Two Starts: 98.5

Best Performance: 11/1/2014 – Breeders’ Cup Juvenile – 1 1/16 mile race – 1st  1:41:91


Next Race: San Vincente Stakes – February 1st        Texas Red’s Equibase Profile


2) Dortmund (Kentucky Bred- Won in 1st start) – Derby Points:10

Current Vegas Odds: 9-1 – Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool #1 Final odds: 9-1
3 Starts, 3 Wins, Win Pct: 100%, Graded Stakes Win Pct: 100%
Last Three Starts: 1st, 1st (97 Beyer), 1st (91 Beyer)
Average Beyer Speed Figure of Last Two Starts:  94

Best Performance: 12/20/2014 – Los Alamitos Futurity –  1 1/16 mile race – 1st  1:40.86

Next Race: Robert B. Lewis Stakes – February 7th        Dortmund’s Equibase Profile


3) American Pharoah (Kentucky Bred – Won in 2nd start) – Derby Points: 10

Current Vegas Odds: 12-1 – Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool #1 Final Odds: 12-1
3 Starts, 2 Wins, Win Pct: 67%, Graded Stakes Win Pct: 100%
Last Three Starts: 5th, 1st (101 Beyer), 1st (101 Beyer)
Average Beyer Speed Figure of Last Two Starts: 101

Best Performance: 9/27/2014 – FrontRunner Stakes – 1 1/16 mile race – 1st 1:41.95


Next Race: Rebel Stakes – March 14th        American Pharoah’s Equibase Profile


4) Carpe Diem (Kentucky Bred – Won in 1st start) – Derby Points: 14

Current Vegas Odds: 22-1 – Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool #1 Final Odds: 15-1
3 Starts, 2 Wins, Win Pct: 67%, Graded Stakes Win Pct: 50%
Last Three Starts: 1st, 1st (91 Beyer), 2nd (93 Beyer)
Average Beyer Speed Figure of Last Two Starts: 92

Best Performance: 11/1/2014 – Breeders’ Cup Juvenile – 1 1/16 mile race – 2nd 1:42.95 (calculated)

Next Race: Unknown        Carpe Diem’s Equibase Profile


5) Upstart (New York Bred – Won in 1st start) – Derby Points: 16

Current Vegas Odds: 20-1 – Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool #1 Final Odds: 53-1
5 Starts, 3 Wins, Win Pct: 60%, Graded Stakes Win Pct: 33%
Last Three Starts: 2nd (102 Beyer), 3rd (93 Beyer), 1st (106 Beyer)
Average Beyer Speed Figure of Last Two Starts: 99

Best Performance: 1/24/2015 – Holy Bull Stakes – 1 1/16 mile race – 1st 1:43.61

Next Race: Fountain of Youth Stakes – February 21st        Upstart’s Equibase Profile


6)  El Kabeir (Florida Bred – Won in 2nd start) – Derby Points: 21

Current Vegas Odds: 18-1 – Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool #1 Final Odds: 74-1
6 Starts, 3 Wins, Win Pct: 50%, Graded Stakes Win Pct: 50%
Last Three Starts:  2nd, 1st (94 Beyer), 1st (95 Beyer)
Average Beyer Speed Figure of Last Two Starts: 94.5

Best Performance: 11/29/2014 – Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes – 1 1/16 mile race – 1st 1:44.82

Next Race: Withers Stakes – February 7th       El Kabeir’s Equibase Profile


7) Daredevil (Kentucky Bred – Won in 1st Start) – Derby Points: 10

Current Vegas Odds: 60-1 – Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool #1 Final Odds: 48-1
3 Starts, 2 Wins, Win Pct: 67%, Graded Stakes Win Pct: 50%
Last Three Starts: 1st (85 Beyer), 1st (107 Beyer), 11th

Best Performance: 10/4/2014 – Champagne Stakes – 1 mile race – 1st 1:36.62 (wet, sloppy track)

Next Race: Swale Stakes – February 28th        Daredevil’s Equibase Profile


Ranking By Average Beyer Speed Figures of Last Two Starts:
1) American Pharoah 101
2) Upstart 99.5
3) Texas Red  98.5
4) El Kabeir  94.5
5) Dortmund  94
6) Carpe Diem 92
7) Daredevil —

Overall, I think a good strategy is to wait until the results of the Robert B. Lewis Stakes on February 7th to see how Dortmund performs against rumored entries Calculator and Firing Line. Texas Red will run in the San Vincente Stakes February 1st, but I am not putting much stock in this 7 furlong race that I view as a 2015 tune-up race. I would feel confident in placing a bet on Texas Red provided that he finishes near the front because he is not a sprinter and is better suited for distance races.

As far as American Pharoah, bettor beware as he is coming off an injury.  Daredevil had a poor run in his last start but keep in mind that he produced a 107 Beyer Speed Figure on a wet sloppy track at Belmont. So if it rains this year at the Kentucky Derby like it did in 2013, Daredevil could be a great wild card. Upstart received a 105 Beyer Speed figure for his win in the Holy Bull Stakes but I wasn’t that impressed his run. His time of 1:43.61 was slower than the previous two Holy Bull winners (Itsmyluckyday 1:41.81 and Cairo Prince 1:42.16)

You can see the full Kentucky Derby points standings by clicking HERE.

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