Kentucky Derby and Oaks Future Wager Update

The Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool #3 and the only Pool for the Kentucky Oaks is underway. The live odds can be found by clicking HERE. These pools run all weekend until Sunday March 1st at 5PM CST

A bit more research, four out of the last five Kentucky Derby winners had four career starts by March 1st of their 3 year-old campaign. And all five had won in their last start. Another interesting finding, you probably want a horse that has won a 1 1/16th race with a time under 1:44 as four out of the previous five Kentucky Derby winners had done by this date. The only Kentucky Derby winner in the past five years who didn’t fit this description was Animal Kingdom. He only had two starts but his last start in his 2 year-old campaign was a win in a 1 1/8th mile race at Gulfstream Park with a time 1:49.01.  He would have eclipsed the 1:44 mark based upon his fraction times in that race.

What horses in Pool #3 best fit this criteria above? Dortmund, International Star, Prospect Park and Upstart (if you are like me and think his win in the Fountain of Youth should have stood). I still think Dortmund is the prototype of a Kentucky Derby winner and who I will be plunking $20 down on in this pool. His odds have teetered around 9-1 and 10-1 most of the day. I may plunk another $20 on Dortmund if I can’t get a price on Upstart. I generally like International Star but I prefer a more accomplished jockey in such a big race other than Miguel Mena who has been International Star’s main jock of late.

I still like Texas Red but already have $20 on him in Pool #1 that will pay out $302 with a win. I feel that with his recent foot abscess problem, that I need to hedge a bit in this pool. Otherwise, Bettor Beware on Texas Red but I think you will be able to get him a nice price over 15-1.

Also, Daredevil will be racing in a 7 furlong race tomorrow and I expect him to win and his odds to lower. Don’t get caught up in this Todd Pletcher horse with a win. He has new owners and I feel that they are targeting him more for mile races rather than the Kentucky Derby. I see him more as a Breeders’ Cup Mile contender later in the year.

As far as the Kentucky Oaks Pool, Take Charge Brandi has been the favorite (listed horse) of bettors thus far but I will still be placing $20 on Condo Commando who I feel is the more proven horse at the Oaks distance of 1 1/8th mile. But one bet that I am considering is a $10 Exacta 4-22 (Condo Commando-Take Charge Brandi).

–Michael

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