The 141st Kentucky Derby Starting Positions and Morning Line Odds

Below are the starting positions and morning line odds for the 141st Kentucky Derby. My thoughts are that Dortmund got the better draw than Bob Baffert’s other top contender American Pharoah. American Pharoah will have a longer trip starting on the outside. So I would lean towards Dortmund as the race winner. Dortmund stumbled out of the gate in the Santa Anita Derby and he won’t be able to do that in this field. I will probably place a 8-18 Boxed Exacta to be safe.

Some potential sleeper picks are Firing Line, Materiality and the Irish horse Mubtaahij. Mubtaahij won the UAE Derby at 1 3/16 ths mile handily with a time of 1:58.35. You can see this race by clicking HERE. So he was raced at a longer distance than any of the other entrants. I would consider him for your Superfecta but foreign horses usually don’t fare well in the Kentucky Derby.

The Kentucky Derby is an extremely difficult race to handicap with such a large field. There are always surprises. So I would probably place a combination of small trifecta and superfecta straight bets. If you want a big payout, throw some longshots in your superfectas that have great jockeys. Hitting a superfecta with this large of field is pure luck. War Story at 30/1 with Mike Smith as his jockey looks to be a good horse to throw into a Superfecta.

Firing Line starts in Gate 10, the winningest post position for the Kentucky Derby so I would him consider for your Superfecta. I may place a win bet of him too since he is 12/1 odds. I also kind of like a 8-18-10 Boxed Trifecta.

Gate 1: Ocho Ocho Ocho – 50/1
Gate 2: Carpe Diem – 8/1
Gate 3: Materiality – 12/1
Gate 4: Tencendur – 30/1
Gate 5: Danzig Moon – 30/1
Gate 6: Mubtaahij – 20/1
Gate 7: El Kabeir – 30/1
Gate 8: Dortmund – 3/1
Gate 9: Bolo – 30/1
Gate 10: Firing Line – 12/1
Gate 11: Stanford – 30/1
Gate 12: International Star – 20/1
Gate 13: Itsaknockout – 30/1
Gate 14: Keen Ice – 50/1
Gate 15: Frosted – 15/1
Gate 16: War Story – 50/1
Gate 17: Mr. Z – 50/1
Gate 18: American Pharoah – 5/2
Gate 19: Upstart – 15/1
Gate 20: Far Right – 30/1

–Michael

My Top Five 2015 Kentucky Derby Contenders

Below is my top 5 Kentucky Derby contenders. Far From Over was injured at the end of March and is off the Kentucky Derby Trail. My early pick for the Kentucky Derby and Kentucky Oaks are Dortmund and Condo Commando respectively. American Pharoah and Dortmund are close enough in talent that post position may cause me to lean one way or the other. As far as early betting strategies, I would probably be thinking about placing a nice boxed exacta on Dortmund and American Pharoah.

My feelings for why I favor Dortmund at this point is the fact that he has yet to be defeated. He was proven that he will dig in when challenged at the finish line (twice against Firing Line). He is a big, strong colt which should give him an advantage in going an extra 1/8th mile in the Kentucky Derby’s distance of 1 1/4th mile as opposed to these final prep races that have been 1 1/8th mile. His sire Big Brown was a Kentucky Derby winner in 2008 while American Pharoah’s sire Pioneerof the Nile finished 2nd in the Kentucky Derby in 2009.

1A) Dortmund (Kentucky Bred- Won in 1st start) – Derby Points: 170
Sire: Big Brown – 2008 Kentucky Derby & Preakness Stakes Winner
Jockey: Martin Garcia

6 Starts, 6 Wins, Win Pct: 100%, Graded Stakes Win Pct: 100%
Last Three Starts: 1st (103 Beyer), 1st (104 Beyer). 1st (106 Beyer)
Average Beyer Speed Figure of Last Two Starts:  105
Fastest 1 1/16 Mile Time: 1:40.86 at Los Alamitos 12/20/14
Fastest 1 1/8th Mile Time: 1:48.73 at Santa Anita Park 4/4/15
Dortmund’s Equibase Profile

1B) American Pharoah (Kentucky Bred – Won in 2nd start) – Derby Points: 160
Sire: Pioneerof the Nile – Finished 2nd in 2009 Kentucky Derby
Jockey: Victor Espinoza

5 Starts, 4 Wins, Win Pct: 80%, Graded Stakes Win Pct: 100%
Last Three Starts: 1st (101 Beyer), 1st (100 Beyer), 1st (105 Beyer)
Average Beyer Speed Figure of Last Two Starts: 102.5
Fastest 1 1/16th Mile Time: 1:41.95 at Santa Anita Park 9/27/14
Fastest 1 1/8th Mile Time: 1:48.52 at Oaklawn Park 4/11/15
American Pharoah’s Equibase Profile

3) Firing Line (Kentucky Bred – Won in 2nd start) – Derby Points: 58
Sire: Line of David – Won 2010 Arkansas Derby, finished 18th in 2010 Kentucky Derby
Jockey: Gary Stevens

5 Starts, 2 Wins, Win Pct: 40%, Graded Stakes Win Pct: 33%
Last Three Starts: 2nd (91 Beyer), 2nd (104 Beyer), 1st (97 Beyer)
Average Beyer Speed Figure of Last Two Starts: 100.5
Fastest 1 1/16th Mile Time: 1:40.88 (calculated) at Los Alamitos 12/20/14
Fastest 1 1/8th Mile Time: 1:47.39 (track record) at Sunland Park 3/22/15
Firing Line’s Equibase Profile

4) Carpe Diem (Kentucky Bred – Won in 1st start) – Derby Points: 164
Sire: Giant’s Causeway – Finished 2nd in the 2000 Breeders’ Cup Classic
Jockey: John Velazquez

5 Starts, 4 Wins, Win Pct: 80%, Graded Stakes Win Pct: 80%
Last Three Starts: 2nd (91 Beyer), 2nd (93 Beyer), 1st (98 Beyer)
Average Beyer Speed Figure of Last Two Starts: 95.5
Fastest 1 1/16th Mile Time: 1:42.95 (calculated) at Santa Anita Park 11/1/14
Fastest 1 1/8th Mile Time: 1:49.77 at Keeneland 4/4/2015
Carpe Diem’s Equibase Profile

5) Materiality (Kentucky Bred – Won in 1st start) – Derby Points: 100
Sire: Afleet Alex – 2005 Preakness Stakes & Belmont Stakes Winner
Jockey: Kent Desormeaux?

3 Starts, 3 Wins, Win Pct: 100%, Graded Stakes Win Pct: 100%
Last Three Starts: 1st (87 Beyer), 1st (104 Beyer), 1st (110 Beyer)
Average Beyer Speed Figure of Last Two Starts: 107
Fastest 1 1/16th Mile Time: n/a
Fastest 1 1/8th Mile Time: 1:49.32 at Gulfstream Park 3/6/15
Materiality’s Equibase Profile


The Santa Anita Derby, Blue Grass Stakes & Wood Memorial

Today is another important day on the Kentucky Derby Trail with three key point paying races in the Santa Anita Derby, Blue Grass Stakes and Wood Memorial Derby at Aqueduct. Dortmund highlights the Santa Anita Derby while Carpe Diem highlights the Blue Grass Stakes. Overall, all of these races have somewhat disappointing fields in terms of  depth and quality. The Santa Anita has six entries, the Wood Memorial has seven and the Blue Grass Stakes has eight. All three races are 1 1/8th mile races that pay out 100 points to the winner.

1) The Wood Memorial  Race #10 at Aqueduct- Post Time 4:30 PM CST 

This race has less starpower but should be an interesting battle between Frosted and El Kabeir. Daredevil is also entered but he is more of a sprinter. El Kabeir has distance limitations. I would place a $1 straight trifecta 4-5-6 (Frosted, El Kabeir and Daredevil) and $100 Show bet on Frosted (horse #4)

2) The Blue Grass Stakes Race #10 at Keeneland – Post Time 5:00 PM CST

I feel less confident about this race. Carpe Diem is the 1/1 Morning Line favorite but has Ocho Ocho Ocho is on the inside with 6/1 Morning Line Odds. I would place a $50 Place bet on Carpe Diem (horse #5).

3) The Santa Anita Derby Race #8 at Santa Anita Park – Post Time 5:38 PM CST

Dortmund is the 3/5 Morning Line favorite and my pick to win. You would have to shell out big money to get a decent payback just like his last three races. I would probably bet $150 on Dortmund to win and a $20 boxed 1-5 exacta (Dortmund, Prospect Park).

–Michael