My Top Five 2015 Kentucky Derby Contenders

Below is my top 5 Kentucky Derby contenders. Far From Over was injured at the end of March and is off the Kentucky Derby Trail. My early pick for the Kentucky Derby and Kentucky Oaks are Dortmund and Condo Commando respectively. American Pharoah and Dortmund are close enough in talent that post position may cause me to lean one way or the other. As far as early betting strategies, I would probably be thinking about placing a nice boxed exacta on Dortmund and American Pharoah.

My feelings for why I favor Dortmund at this point is the fact that he has yet to be defeated. He was proven that he will dig in when challenged at the finish line (twice against Firing Line). He is a big, strong colt which should give him an advantage in going an extra 1/8th mile in the Kentucky Derby’s distance of 1 1/4th mile as opposed to these final prep races that have been 1 1/8th mile. His sire Big Brown was a Kentucky Derby winner in 2008 while American Pharoah’s sire Pioneerof the Nile finished 2nd in the Kentucky Derby in 2009.

1A) Dortmund (Kentucky Bred- Won in 1st start) – Derby Points: 170
Sire: Big Brown – 2008 Kentucky Derby & Preakness Stakes Winner
Jockey: Martin Garcia

6 Starts, 6 Wins, Win Pct: 100%, Graded Stakes Win Pct: 100%
Last Three Starts: 1st (103 Beyer), 1st (104 Beyer). 1st (106 Beyer)
Average Beyer Speed Figure of Last Two Starts:  105
Fastest 1 1/16 Mile Time: 1:40.86 at Los Alamitos 12/20/14
Fastest 1 1/8th Mile Time: 1:48.73 at Santa Anita Park 4/4/15
Dortmund’s Equibase Profile

1B) American Pharoah (Kentucky Bred – Won in 2nd start) – Derby Points: 160
Sire: Pioneerof the Nile – Finished 2nd in 2009 Kentucky Derby
Jockey: Victor Espinoza

5 Starts, 4 Wins, Win Pct: 80%, Graded Stakes Win Pct: 100%
Last Three Starts: 1st (101 Beyer), 1st (100 Beyer), 1st (105 Beyer)
Average Beyer Speed Figure of Last Two Starts: 102.5
Fastest 1 1/16th Mile Time: 1:41.95 at Santa Anita Park 9/27/14
Fastest 1 1/8th Mile Time: 1:48.52 at Oaklawn Park 4/11/15
American Pharoah’s Equibase Profile

3) Firing Line (Kentucky Bred – Won in 2nd start) – Derby Points: 58
Sire: Line of David – Won 2010 Arkansas Derby, finished 18th in 2010 Kentucky Derby
Jockey: Gary Stevens

5 Starts, 2 Wins, Win Pct: 40%, Graded Stakes Win Pct: 33%
Last Three Starts: 2nd (91 Beyer), 2nd (104 Beyer), 1st (97 Beyer)
Average Beyer Speed Figure of Last Two Starts: 100.5
Fastest 1 1/16th Mile Time: 1:40.88 (calculated) at Los Alamitos 12/20/14
Fastest 1 1/8th Mile Time: 1:47.39 (track record) at Sunland Park 3/22/15
Firing Line’s Equibase Profile

4) Carpe Diem (Kentucky Bred – Won in 1st start) – Derby Points: 164
Sire: Giant’s Causeway – Finished 2nd in the 2000 Breeders’ Cup Classic
Jockey: John Velazquez

5 Starts, 4 Wins, Win Pct: 80%, Graded Stakes Win Pct: 80%
Last Three Starts: 2nd (91 Beyer), 2nd (93 Beyer), 1st (98 Beyer)
Average Beyer Speed Figure of Last Two Starts: 95.5
Fastest 1 1/16th Mile Time: 1:42.95 (calculated) at Santa Anita Park 11/1/14
Fastest 1 1/8th Mile Time: 1:49.77 at Keeneland 4/4/2015
Carpe Diem’s Equibase Profile

5) Materiality (Kentucky Bred – Won in 1st start) – Derby Points: 100
Sire: Afleet Alex – 2005 Preakness Stakes & Belmont Stakes Winner
Jockey: Kent Desormeaux?

3 Starts, 3 Wins, Win Pct: 100%, Graded Stakes Win Pct: 100%
Last Three Starts: 1st (87 Beyer), 1st (104 Beyer), 1st (110 Beyer)
Average Beyer Speed Figure of Last Two Starts: 107
Fastest 1 1/16th Mile Time: n/a
Fastest 1 1/8th Mile Time: 1:49.32 at Gulfstream Park 3/6/15
Materiality’s Equibase Profile


Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s