Month: May 2015

Triple Crown Fever: Thank You American Pharoah!

Posted on by Michael J. Cox

American Pharoah wins the Preakness Stakes – Patrick Smith/Getty Images

Santa Claus. He was a real at one time, long ago. As a kid, there was a time when you were told by a friend that Santa Claus wasn’t “real.” You denied it for a few years because you wanted to believe in Santa Claus. You were getting presents and you just didn’t want to believe that he didn’t exist. He did at one time just like a Triple Crown winning thoroughbred. We had three of them in the 1970s but they are deceased now.

Step back to 1978, the last time we had a Triple Crown Winner in Affirmed. Let’s see, Jimmy Carter was President and he taking advice on how to manage the country from his daughter Amy.

And this was the #1 song in 1978.

And we have been shadow dancing for a Triple Crown winner ever since.

I can’t tell you what this video does to me except I had to have a trashcan nearby. I liked this type of music at one time—like quite a few people reading this did at one time.

The Consensus: WE NEED A TRIPLE CROWN WINNER!

So we don’t have to go back in time and revisit this era (and the blurry race tape) every time we have a Triple Crown contender. Pretty Please? With whipcream and a cherry on top?

So that we can put an end to the bloody long streak. I was a teenager who loved sports, so I got a Sports Illustrated subscription as a birthday gift in the 70s. One of the issues that I remember vividly pulling out of the mailbox was an issue that had 18-year-old jockey Steve Cauthen on the cover riding Affirmed to a Belmont Stakes Victory–thus winning the Triple Crown. As a teenager myself, I could relate at that time. But nobody can relate now. I have children, and grandchildren, who have never seen a Triple Crown winner.

So what are American Pharoah’s Triple Crown chances? Much better than California Chrome’s.

Why? American Pharoah is a better horse than California Chrome.

Consider the following:

  • Experience. Victor Espinoza was California Chrome’s jockey for his Triple Crown run last year and he is also American Pharoah’s jockey. Is this man living right or what?
  • American Pharoah’s winning time in the Kentucky Derby was 0.64 seconds faster than California Chrome’s. This was backed up by American Pharoah’s Beyer Speed Figure of 105 compared to Chrome’s 97.
  • American Pharoah’s winning time in the Preakness Stakes was just 3.62 seconds off California Chrome’s on a sloppy wet track.. And American Pharoah wasn’t pressured for the win like California Chrome was by Ride On Curlin in last year’s Preakness—very Impressive!
  • American Pharoah’s average Beyer for the two Triple Crown races is 103.5. California Chrome’s was 101.

So “Yes, Virginia, there is a Santa Claus.” I am going against the odds and betting that American Pharoah wins the Belmont to capture the first Triple Crown in 37 years. Yes, just like you, I want to believe.

–Michael

Triple Crown Race #2 – The Preakness Stakes Preview

Posted on by Michael J. Cox

The second leg of the Triple Crown will occur this coming Saturday–May 16th–with the Preakness Stakes at Pimlico with a $1.5 million dollar purse. Approximate post time is 5:14PM CST and the race will be televised on NBC and HRTV. Kentucky Derby winner American Pharoah is expected to be the live odds race favorite.

Overall, I don’t think this is a race where you will hit a big payout. Last year, I hit two Superfectas, one keying California Chrome to win with 4 horses and another that was a Boxed Superfecta. A $1 Superfecta disappointingly paid out $178. I think I came out $300 ahead.

Anyway, American Pharoah, Firing Line and Dortmund should be in your Trifectas and Superfectas. These are the three top horses once again for this race. I will be placing some Boxed Trifectas using these three horses but I don’t expect as big of a payout as I received in the Kentucky Derby where a $10 Boxed Tri paid out $1010. I always like to bet some straight $1 superfectas as well. So I will be using Danzig Moon, Mr Z and Divining Rod to round out my Superfectas. If the Super High Five is an option this year with an 8 horse field, then I will place some of these type of bets. Last year a $2 Super High Five paid out $2,438.20 with a 10 horse field.

Who will win the race?

Tough call. Did Dortmund show that he was tired in the Derby due to the extra race he ran in 2015 compared to American Pharoah and Firing Line? Or will this extra work give him more stamina than the others coming back two weeks later. In the Kentucky Derby, American Pharoah also had the 2nd longest trip (6,720 feet) of any Derby runner (behind Frosted) according to Trakus. If it is a wet race, American Pharoah has experience winning the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park on a sloppy track. Currently, weather.com predicts an 80% chance of evening thunderstorms for Saturday. With this information, I am leaning towards American Pharoah as the winner.

Firing Line seems to be an upward trending horse, finally beating Dortmund in the Kentucky Derby in his third race against the Baffert colt. I felt good enough to place a $50 win bet on him in the Kentucky Derby as his odds were such that I would have received a nice payout if he won.

I expect that this year’s Preakness will be run in 1:54 second range so long as it is a dry race. I don’t see any fresh horse coming into this race and upsetting the favorites.

Below is my ranking of the field:

1) American Pharoah – Post Position: 1, Morning Line Odds: 4/5
Sire: Pioneerof the Nile – Finished 2nd in 2009 Kentucky Derby
Jockey: Victor Espinoza
6 Starts, 5 Wins, Win Pct: 83%, Graded Stakes Win Pct: 100%, Top 3 Finish Pct: 100%
Last Three Starts: 1st (100 Beyer), 1st (105 Beyer), 1st (105 Beyer)
Average Beyer Speed Figure of Last Two Starts: 105
Fastest 1 1/16th Mile Time: 1:41.95 at Santa Anita Park 9/27/2014
Fastest 1 1/8th Mile Time: 1:48.52 at Oaklawn Park 4/11/2015
Fastest 1 1/4th Mile TIme: 2:03.02 (Official Time) – 2.02.80 (Trakus Time) at Churchill Downs 5/2/2015
American Pharoah’s Equibase Profile

2) Dortmund – Post Position: 2, Morning Line Odds: 7/2
Sire: Big Brown – 2008 Kentucky Derby & Preakness Stakes Winner
Jockey: Martin Garcia
7 Starts, 6 Wins, Win Pct: 100%, Graded Stakes Win Pct: 100%
Last Three Starts: 1st (104 Beyer). 1st (106 Beyer), 3rd (101 Beyer)
Average Beyer Speed Figure of Last Two Starts:  103.5
Fastest 1 1/16th Mile Time: 1:40.86 at Los Alamitos 12/20/2014
Fastest 1 1/8th Mile Time: 1:48.73 at Santa Anita Park 4/4/2015
Fastest 1 1/4th Mile TIme: 2:03.16 (Trakus Time) at Churchill Downs 5/2/2015
 Dortmund’s Equibase Profile

3) Firing Line – Post Position: 8, Morning Line Odds: 4/1
Sire: Line of David – Won 2010 Arkansas Derby, finished 18th in 2010 Kentucky Derby
Jockey: Gary Stevens
5 Starts, 2 Wins, Win Pct: 40%, Graded Stakes Win Pct: 33%, Top 3 Finish Pct: 100%
Last Three Starts: 2nd (104 Beyer), 1st (97 Beyer), 2nd (104 Beyer)
Average Beyer Speed Figure of Last Two Starts: 100.5
Fastest 1 1/16th Mile Time: 1:40.88 (calculated) at Los Alamitos 12/20/2014
Fastest 1 1/8th Mile Time: 1:47.39 (track record) at Sunland Park 3/22/2015
Fastest 1 1/4th Mile Time: 2:03.18 (calculated) at Churchill Downs 5/2/2015
Firing Line’s Equibase Profile

4) Divining Rod – Post Position: 7, Morning Line Odds: 12/1
Sire: Tapit – 2004 Wood Memorial Winner, finished 9th in the 2004 Kentucky Derby
Jockey: Javier Castellano
5 Starts, 2 Wins, Win Pct: 40%, Graded Stakes Win Pct: 33%, Top 3 Finish Pct: 100%
Last Three Starts: 2nd, 3rd, 1st (98 Beyer)
Fastest 1 1/16th Mile Time: 1:43.29 at Keeneland 4/11/2015
Fastest 1 1/8th Mile Time: Never raced longer than 1 1/16th mile
Divining Rod’s Equibase Profile

5) Danzig Moon – Post Position: 4, Morning Line Odds: 15/1
Sire: Malibu Moon – One Maiden win in 2 starts
Jockey: Julien Leparoux
6 Starts, 1 Wins, Win Pct: 16.7%  Graded Stakes Win Pct: 0%, Top 3 Finish Pct: 50%
Last Three Starts: 4th, 2nd, 5th
Fastest 1 1/16th Mile Time: 1:45.60 (calculated) at Tampa Bay Downs 3/7/2015
Fastest 1 1/8th Mile Time: 1:50.25 (calculated) at Keeneland 4/4/2015
Fastest 1 1/4th Mile Time: 2:03.81 (Trakus Time) at Churchill Downs 5/2/2015
Danzig Moon’s Equibase Profile

6)  Mr. Z – Post Position: 3, Morning Line Odds: 20/1
Sire: Malibu Moon – one maiden win in 2 career starts
Jockey: Cory Nakatani
13 Starts, 1 Win, Win Pct: 7.7%, Graded Stakes Win Pct: 0%, Top 3 Finish Pct: 69.2%
Last Three starts: 9th, 3rd, 13th
Fastest 1 1/16th Mile Time: 1:40.89 at Los Alamitos 12/20/2014
Fastest 1 1/8th Mile Time: 1:49.92 at Oaklawn Park 4/11/2015
Fastest 1 1/4th Mile Time: 2:05.20 (Trakus) at Churchill Downs 5/2/2015
Mr Z’s Equibase Profile

7) Bodhisattva – Post Position: 6, Morning Line Odds: 20/1
Sire: Student Counsil – 2007 Pacific Classic Stakes Winner, finished 11th in 2008 Breeders’ Cup Classic
Jockey: Trevor McCarthy
11 Starts, 3 Wins, Win Pct: 27.3%, Graded Stakes Win Pct: 0%, Top 3 Finish Pct: 72.7%
Last Three Starts: 4th, 2nd, 1st (90 Beyer)
Fastest 1 1/16th Mile Time: 1:45.18 at Pimlico 4/18/2015
Fastest 1 1/8th Mile Time: 1:52.92 (calculated) at Laurel Park 3/21/2015
Bodhisattva Equibase Profile

8) Tale of Verve – Post Position: 5, Morning Line Odds: 30/1
Sire: Tale of Ekati – 2008 Wood Memorial Winner and finished 4th in 2008 Kentucky Derby
Jockey: Joel Rosario.
6 Starts, 1 Wins, Win Pct: 16.7%  Graded Stakes Win Pct: 0%, Top 3 Finish Pct: 66.7%
Last Three Starts: 4th, 2nd, 1st (72 Beyer)
Fastest 1 1/16th Mile Time: 1:47.85 at The Fair Grounds 3/5/2015
Fastest 1 1/8th Mile Time: 1:53.67 (estimated) at Keeneland 4/23/2015
Tale of Verve Equibase Profile

–Michael

Preakness Stakes Preview Coming Soon

Posted on by Michael J. Cox

Once the Preakness Stakes field is set, I will post a Preakness Preview. You can follow all of this via the Preakness Stakes website by clicking HERE.

So far American Pharoah, Dortmund and Firiing, Danzig Moon, Divining Rod and Bohistavva have been confirmed. Right now, I would recommend the same $10 Trifecta of American Pharoah, Firing Line and Dortmund that won me $1010 in the Kentucky Derby.

The key for the Preakness is to be on the look out for any fast and fresh horses that are entered but not get too caught up in the hoopla. Usually the best horses that will finish in the money in the Preakness were at least horses that were entered in the Kentucky Derby and competed or got scratched.

–Michael