Month: July 2015

American Pharoah Returns! The Jim Dandy Stakes and Haskell Invitational Preview

Posted on by Michael J. Cox

This coming weekend, there are two key races on the road to the Breeders’ Cup Classic. Saturday August 1st at Saratoga will be the Jim Dandy Stakes with a handful of familiar names from the Kentucky Derby trail. On Sunday August 2nd, American Pharoah makes his first start since winning the Triple Crown in The William Hill Haskell Invitational at Monmouth Park. Both races are 1 1/8th mile.

The Jim Dandy Stakes carries a $600,000 purse and has three notable entries in Frosted (2/1), Upstart (3/1) and Texas Red (7/2). Also entered are: Competitive Edge (8/1), Frammento (20/1), Tekton (10/1) and a horse on the rise named Japan (10/1). However, please note that Upstart and Competitive Edge are cross-entered in the Haskell Invitational, so the field could have as few as five horses. Post time will be 5:13 PM CST and the race will be televised on TVG.

Overall, this race is wide-open and I don’t feel good enough about this one to give betting advice. Texas Red has been rehabbing from an injury suffered earlier in the year and he is slowly working his way back to form. Upstart hasn’t raced since the Kentucky Derby. Frosted is best suited for distance races. Too many unknowns, so this is a race to watch but not one to bet on. Last year a $2 Superfecta in a 5 horse field only paid out a measly $69.

The Haskell Invitational carries a $1,750,000 dollar purse and is part of the Breeders’ Cup Classic “Win and You’re In” program. The race winner is assured one of the 14 spots in the $5,000,000 Breeders’ Cup Classic. The race will be aired on NBC and will have an approximate post time of 4:42 PM CST.

American Pharoah will have six challengers and here are the post positions and Morning Line Odds:

1. Upstart – Joe Bravo – 6-1
2. Competitive Edge – Mike Smith 8-1
3. Nonna’s Boy – SCRATCHED
4. American Pharoah – Victor Espinoza – 1-5
5. Mr. Jordan – Paco Lopez – 15-1
6. Keen Ice – Kent Desormeaux – 12-1
7. Top Clearance – Javier Castellano – 30-1
8. Dontbetwithbruno – TBA –  30-1

Overall, I expect American Pharoah to wire this field. Todd Pletcher has three horses entered: Competitive Edge, Nonna’s Boy and Dontbetwithbruno. (Update: Nonna’s Boy was scratched). I would recommend placing Superfectas keying American Pharoah to win. So I would recommend placing four 10 cent superfectas keying American Pharoah to win: 4 with ALL, with ALL, with ALL. Each would cost $12. And a $1 Superfecta Part Wheel: 4 with 1,5,6, with 1,2,5,6,8, with ALL. This bet would cost $48. Total bet $96. Put $4 on American Pharoah to Place and there is $100.

–Michael

Catch A Flight upsets Bayern & Hoppertunity – Updated Breeders’s Cup Classic Rankings

Posted on by Michael J. Cox

Catch A Flight wins the San Diego Handicap at Del Mar – (AP / BENOIT PHOTO)

The San Diego Handicap at Del Mar yesterday (shown below) provided a dramatic finish and much-needed information for any Breeders’ Cup Classic contender list. The San Diego Handicap was top-heavy in talent with entries Bayern, Hoppertunity and a very promising Argentinian horse named Catch A Flight. This race was 1 1/16th mile, so I am viewing it through 1 1/4 mile spectacles (same distance as the BCC).

My thoughts, Bayern is definitely not the same horse he was in 2014. He had no excuses with his 3rd place finish. He took the early lead where he has been successful in the past but tailed off at the end. But I take this a step forward after two last place finishes in 2015. Remember, he sat out earlier in the year due to a quarter crack in his hind foot  Overall, I was more impressed with Catch A Flight and Hoppertunity (who finished 4th) as both came on like gang-busters at the end.

So here is my updated Breeders’ Cup Classic Rankings with Wynn Las Vegas Odds

1) American Pharoah (5/2) – He currently is ranked #1 in Longines World’s Best Racehorse rankings and also ranked #1 in the most recent NTRA’s Top Thoroughbred poll. And much deserved as he is the first Triple Crown Winner in 37 years. His return to racing has been confirmed to be the Haskell Invitational August 2nd. His workouts are going well, he will wire the Haskell field. His next start after the Haskell is not confirmed but expected to be the Travers Stakes August 29th.

Career: 8 Starts 7-0-0-0, Win Pct: 87.5%, Top 3 Pct: 87.5%, Top 4 Pct: 87.5%
Fastest 1 1/8 Mile Time: 1:48.52 – 4/11/15 (2015 Arkansas Derby)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:03.02 – 5/2/15 (2015 Kentucky Derby)
Best Finish in a 1 1/4 Mile Grade 1 Stakes Race: 1st – 2015 Kentucky Derby

2) Tonalist (10/1) – Last year’s Belmont Stakes and Jockey Club Gold Cup winner. For 2015, he has one win in the Westchester Stakes and now two 2nd places finishes (Met Mile and Suburban Handicap). He finished 5th in the Breeders’ Cup Classic last year. His 108 Beyer in the Suburban Handicap ranks as the third highest speed figure this year for races 1 1/4 mile. His next start will be the Whitney Handicap on August 8th.

Career: 12 Starts 5-4-1-1, Win Pct: 41.7%, Top 3 Pct: 83.3%, Top 4 Pct: 91.7%
Fastest 1 1/8 Mile Time: 1:49.52 (calculated) – 7/26/14 (2014 Jim Dandy Stakes)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:00.69 (calculated)- 11/1/14 (2014 Breeders’ Cup Classic)
Best Finish in a 1 1/4 Mile Grade 1 Stakes Race: 1st – 2014 Jockey Club Gold Cup

3) Catch A Flight (20/1)  -The Argentinian horse has never finished below 3rd in his North American career thus far, so that is where I am placing him in my rankings. He has won 10 of 17 career starts, 4 out of 7 in North America. He is ridden by Hall of Fame jockey Gary Stevens and appears to be an upcoming horse who is getting better as his San Diego Handicap performance indicates. He finished 3rd in the Santa Anita Handicap in March behind Shared Belief and Moreno, but beat Moreno in the Californian Stakes on May 30th (106 Beyer Speed Figure). He finished third behind Hard Aces and Hoppertunity in the Gold Cup at Santa Anita June 27th, but beat Hoppertunity in the San Diego Handicap. His next start is confirmed as the TVG Pacific Classic at Del Mar on August 22nd.

Career (North America) : 7 Starts 4-0-3-0, Win Pct: 57.1%, Top 3 Pct: 100%, Top 4 Pct: 100%
Fastest 1 1/8 Mile Time: 1:47.73 – 5/30/14 (2015 Californian Stakes)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:01.37 (calculated) – 3/7/15 (2015 Santa Anita Handicap)
Best Finish in a 1 1/4 Mile Grade 1 Stakes Race: 3rd – 2015 Santa Anita Handicap

4) Lea (20/1) – In 2015, he has a win (Hal’s Hope Stakes), two second place finishes (Donn Handicap and Stephen Foster Handicap) and a third place finish. The third place finish was in the Dubai World Cup where he finished behind Prince Bishop and California Chrome. He has two impressive Beyer Speed Figures of 110 in the Hal’s Hope Stakes and 108 in the Stephen Foster Handicap. He is working out well at Saratoga. His next start will be the Whitney Handicap on August 8th.

Career: 16 Starts 7-4-3-1, Win Pct: 43.8%, Top 3 Pct: 87.5%, Top 4 Pct: 93.8%
Fastest 1 1/8 Mile Time: 1:46.86 – 2/9/14 (2014 Donn Handicap)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:03.88 (calculated)- 3/28/15 (2015 Dubai World Cup)
Best Finish in a 1 1/4 Mile Grade 1 Stakes Race: 3rd – 2015 Dubai World Cup

5) Palace Malice (6/1) – He finished 3rd in his only start in 2015 in the 6 furlong Diablo Stakes at Belmont on May 10th. He won four out of five races last year, most notably the Metropolitan Handicap. In 2013, he won the Belmont Stakes and Jim Dandy Stakes and finished 6th in the Breeders’ Cup Classic. Considered one of the best older horses last year. I will say that 6/1 odds for a horse that has yet to race this year is too rich. He did work out July 4th and July 20th at Saratoga. His next start will be the Whitney Handicap on August 8th.

Career: 18 Starts 7-4-2-1, Win Pct: 38.9%, Top 3 Pct: 72.2%, Top 4 Pct: 77.8%
Fastest 1 1/8 Mile Time: 1:47.37 – 7/27/13 (2013 Jim Dandy Stakes)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:00.78 (calculated)- 9/28/13 (2013 Jockey Club Gold Cup)
Best Finish in a 1 1/4 Mile Grade 1 Stakes Race: 2nd – 2013 Jockey Club Gold Cup

6) Effinex (50/1) – The Suburban Handicap winner, he has now produced two of the top four Beyer Speed Figures this year for races 1 1/4th mile or longer: 107 Beyer at Aqueduct on April 25th and his 108 Beyer on July 4th at Belmont. He could be peaking and maturing at the right time. He has yet to work out this month. His next start will be at Saratoga for the Whitney Handicap on August 8th.

Career: 16 Starts 6-1-2-2, Win Pct: 37.5%, Top 3 Pct: 56.25%, Top 4%: 68.8%
Fastest 1 1/8 Mile Time: 1:48.51 – 4/11/15 (2014 Empire Classic)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:01.55 – 7/4/15 (2015 Suburban Handicap)
Best Finish in a 1 1/4 Mile Grade 1 Stakes Race: N/A

7) Dortmund (12/1) – He finished 3rd in the Kentucky Derby and 4th in the Preakness Stakes. But remember that he has won 6 races out of 8 starts. Another Bob Baffert-trained horse that I expect to improve as I don’t think we have seen the best from him yet. He was supposed to be entered into the Los Alamitos Derby on July 4th but his next start appears to be the Jim Dandy Stakes on August 1st.

Career: 8 Starts 6-0-1-1, Win Pct: 75%, Top 3 Pct: 87.5%, Top 4 Pct: 100%
Fastest 1 1/8 Mile Time: 1:48.73 – 4/4/15 (2015 Santa Anita Derby)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:03.50 (calculated) – 5/2/15 (2015 Kentucky Derby)
Best Finish in a 1 1/4 Mile Grade 1 Stakes Race: 3rd – 2015 Kentucky Derby

8) Hoppertunity (10/1)  – In 2015, he has a win in the San Pasqual Stakes, two third place finishes in the San Antonio and Stephen Foster Handicap, lost to Hard Aces in the Gold Cup at Santa Anita by a nose and a fourth place finish in the San Diego Handicap. He is consistent and has never finished below 5th in 12 career starts. His next start will be the TVG Pacific Classic on August 22nd.

Career: 12 Starts 4-3-2-2, Win Pct: 33.3%, Top 3 Pct: 83.3%, Top 4 Pct: 91.7%
Fastest 1 1/8 Mile Time: 1:48.36 (calculated) – 4/5/14 (2014 Santa Anita Derby)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:02.47 (calculated) – 6/27/14 (2015 Gold Cup)
Best Finish in a 1 1/4 Mile Grade 1 Stakes Race: 2nd – 2015 Gold Cup

9) Frosted (15/1) – Like Tonalist and Constitution, the son of Tapit. The winner of the Wood Memorial where he posted a 103 Beyer Speed Figure. He finished 4th in the Kentucky Derby and 2nd in the Belmont Stakes. His next start is likely to be the Jim Dandy Stakes August 1st, followed by Travers Stakes on August 29th.

Career: 9 Starts 2-5-0-2, Win Pct: 22.2%, Top 3 Pct: 77.8%, Top 4 Pct: 100%
Fastest 1 1/8 Mile Time: 1:50.31 – 4/4/15 (2015 Wood Memorial)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:03.54 (calculated) – 5/2/2015 (2015 Kentucky Derby)
Best Finish in a 1 1/4 Mile Grade 1 Stakes Race: 4th – 2015 Kentucky Derby

10) Hard Aces* (25/1) –  He has qualified for the Breeders’ Cup Classic with his win in the Gold Cup at Santa Anita. For 2015, he has two wins, a 3rd, a 4th and a 6th place finish. One wonders if his big win in the Gold Cup was more a byproduct of Victor Espinoza’s jockeying. His workouts of late haven’t been impressive. No word on when his next start will be.

Career: 23 starts 6-3-7-2, Win Pct: 26.1%, Top 3 Pct: 69.6%, Top 4 Pct: 78.2%
Fastest 1 1/8 Mile Time: 1:48.37 (calculated) – 5/30/15 (2015 Californian Stakes)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:02.46 – 6/27/14 (2015 Gold Cup)
Best Finish in a 1 1/4 Mile Grade 1 Stakes Race: 1st – 2015 Gold Cup

11) Bayern (25/1) – Last year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic winner. He has had two consecutive last place finishes (6th, 10th) in two starts before his 3rd place finish in the San Diego Handicap. No word on when his next start will be.

Career: 13 Starts 6-1-2-0, Win Pct: 46.2%, Top 3 Pct: 69.2%, Top 4 Pct: 69.2%
Fastest 1 1/8 Mile Time: 1:46.96 – 9/20/14 (2014 Pennsylvania Derby)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 1:59.88 – 11/1/14 (2014 Breeders’ Cup Classic)
Best Finish in a 1 1/4 Mile Grade 1 Stakes Race: 1st – 2014 Breeders’ Cup Classic

12) Noble Bird* (No Odds) – He has qualified for the Breeders’ Cup Classic with his win in the Stephen Foster Handicap where he beat Lea while registering a 108 Beyer Speed Figure. Why Wynn Las Vegas has no odds listed for him is puzzling. He has won three out of his last four races. His only downside is that he has never raced longer than 1 1/8 mile. His next start is expected to be the Whitney Handicap August 8th.

Career: 10 Starts 4-3-0-1, Win Pct: 40%, Top 3 Pct: 70%, Top 4 Pct: 80%
Fastest 1 1/8 Mile Time: 1:47.94 – 6/13/15 (2015 Stephen Foster Handicap)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: N/A

13) Constitution (11/1) – Winner of 4 out 6 career starts which includes the Donn Handicap earlier in the year. Currently tied with Shared Belief for the Top Beyer Speed Figure in 2015 for races longer than a mile with a speed figure of 111. He has never raced longer than a 1 1/8th  mile. However, with his pedigree (Sire Tapit), I have no concerns that he will have distance issues. He has been working out, but no word on when this Todd Pletcher-trained horse’s next start will be.

Career: 6 Starts 4-0-1-1, Win Pct: 66.7%, Top 3 Pct: 83.3%, Top 4 Pct: 100%
Fastest 1 1/8 Mile Time: 1:49.16 – 3/29/14 (2014 Florida Derby)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: N/A

14) Honor Code (15/1) – The Met-Mile winner with a blazing 112 Beyer Speed Figure. He has a 5th place finish in th Alysheba Stakes and a win in the Gulfstream Park Handicap in his other two starts in 2015. He has a nice pedigree, the son of A.P. Indy and the grandson of Seattle Slew. He has yet to race longer than 1 1/8th mile but I am not concerned as he is bred for distance. He demonstrated that he has closing speed in the Met Mile. His last two workouts have been less than impressive but he is a closer. His next start will be the Whitney Handicap August 8th.

Career: 8 Starts 5-2-0-0, Win Pct: 62.5%, Top 3 Pct: 87.5%, Top 4 Pct: 87.5%, Top 4 Pct: 87.5%
Fastest 1 1/8 Mile Time: 1:52.92 – 11/30/14 (2014 Remsen Stakes)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: N/A

* – indicates horses who have already qualified for the Breeders’ Cup Classic

Below is a ranking by Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Times.  I used times at the 1 & 1/4 mile mark from the 2015 Belmont Stakes for American Pharoah and Frosted since these times were better than their times in the Kentucky Derby. For calculated times of non-winning horses, I used the official race time of the winner and the following to compute an estimated time [One length is equal to 0.16 seconds, three-quarters of a length is equal to 0.12, a half-length equals 0.08, a neck is equal to 0.04, a head is equal to 0.02 and a nose is 0.01].

1) Bayern –  1:59.88 – 11/1/14 (2014 Breeders’ Cup Classic)
2) Tonalist  – 2:00.69 (calculated) – 11/1/14 (2014 Breeders’ Cup Classic)
3) Palace Malice  – 2:00.78 (calculated) – 9/28/13 (2013 Jockey Club Gold Cup)
4) Catch A Flight   – 2:01.37 (calculated) – 3/7/15 (2015 Santa Anita Handicap)
5) Effinex  – 2:01.55 – 7/4/15 (2015 Suburban Handicap)
6) American Pharoah  –  2:02.37 – 6/5/15 (2015 Belmont Stakes)
7) Hard Aces  –  2:02.46 – 6/27/14 (2015 Gold Cup)
8) Hoppertunity  –  2:02.47 (calculated) – 6/27/14 (2015 Gold Cup)
9) Frosted  –   2:02.69 (calculated) – 6/5/2015 (2015 Belmont Stakes)
10) Dortmund –  2:03.50 (calculated) – 5/2/15 (2015 Kentucky Derby)
11) Lea –  2:03.88 (calculated) – 3/28/15 (2015 Dubai World Cup)

The remaining “Win and You’re In” Breeders’ Cup Classic Races:

Aug. 2nd – The Haskell Invitational at Monmouth Park – 1 1/8 Mile – Purse: $1,000,000 – NBC
Aug. 8th – The Whitney Handicap at Saratoga – 1 1/8 Mile – Purse: $1,500,000 – NBC
Aug. 22nd – The TVG Pacific Classic at Del Mar – 1 1/4 Mile – Purse: $1,000,000 – TVG
Sept. 26th – The Awesome Again Stakes at Santa Anita – 1 1/8 Mile – Purse: $250,000 – TVG
Oct. 3rd – Jockey Club Gold Cup Invitational at Belmont – 1 1/4 Mile – Purse: $1,000,000 – NBC

Other Notable Classic Division Races:

Aug. 29th – The Travers Stakes at Saratoga – 1 1/4 Mile – Purse: $1,000,000 – NBC
Sept. 5th – The Woodward Stakes at Saratoga – 1 1/8 Mile – Purse: $600,000 –  NBCSN

–Michael

2015 Breeders’ Cup Classic Contender Rankings

Posted on by Michael J. Cox

Photo credit: Mark Mahan

I decided to do more research and come up with a better, more detailed Breeders’ Cup Contender ranking list. This list relies more upon capability based upon past performances since the first half of the year is used as a tuneup for the latter half for most of these older horses. The month of August will tell us much more as many of these horses will race in one or two races. The key races are listed below.

Ranking with Wynn Las Vegas Odds

1) American Pharoah (5/2) – He currently is ranked #1 in Longines World’s Best Racehorse rankings and also ranked #1 in the most recent NTRA’s Top Thoroughbred poll. And much deserved as he is the first Triple Crown Winner in 37 years. His return to racing has been confirmed to be the Haskell Invitational August 2nd. Followed by the Travers Stakes August 29th.

Career: 8 Starts 7-0-0-0, Win Pct: 87.5%, Top 3 Pct: 87.5%, Top 4 Pct: 87.5%
Fastest 1 1/8 Mile Time: 1:48.52 – 4/11/15 (2015 Arkansas Derby)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:03.02 – 5/2/15 (2015 Kentucky Derby)
Best Finish in a 1 1/4 Mile Grade 1 Stakes Race: 1st – 2015 Kentucky Derby

2) Tonalist (10/1) – Last year’s Belmont Stakes and Jockey Club Gold Cup winner. For 2015, he has one win in the Westchester Stakes and now two 2nd places finishes (Met Mile and Suburban Handicap). He finished 5th in the Breeders’ Cup Classic last year. His 108 Beyer in the Suburban Handicap ranks as the third highest speed figure this year for races 1 1/4 mile. His next start will be the Whitney Handicap on August 8th.

Career: 12 Starts 5-4-1-1, Win Pct: 41.7%, Top 3 Pct: 83.3%, Top 4 Pct: 91.7%
Fastest 1 1/8 Mile Time: 1:49.52 (calculated) – 7/26/14 (2014 Jim Dandy Stakes)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:00.69 (calculated)- 11/1/14 (2014 Breeders’ Cup Classic)
Best Finish in a 1 1/4 Mile Grade 1 Stakes Race: 1st – 2014 Jockey Club Gold Cup

3) Bayern (25/1) – Last year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic winner. He has had two consecutive last place finishes (6th, 10th) in two starts this year. But both races were a mile or under. Many suspected that he might have an undetected ailment of some sort or not fully recovered from the quarter crack in his hind foot that kept him out of the San Antonio Stakes earlier in the year. However, Bob Baffert insists that he is in perfect health. He is training well so I expect Bayern to bounce back. His next start appears to be the San Diego Handicap on July 25th.

Career: 12 Starts 6-1-1-0, Win Pct: 50%, Top 3 Pct: 66.7%, Top 4 Pct: 66.7%
Fastest 1 1/8 Mile Time: 1:46.96 – 9/20/14 (2014 Pennsylvania Derby)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 1:59.88 – 11/1/14 (2014 Breeders’ Cup Classic)
Best Finish in a 1 1/4 Mile Grade 1 Stakes Race: 1st – 2014 Breeders’ Cup Classic

4) Palace Malice (6/1) – He finished 3rd in his only start in 2015 in the 6 furlong Diablo Stakes at Belmont on May 10th. He won four out of five races last year, most notably the Metropolitan Handicap. In 2013, he won the Belmont Stakes and Jim Dandy Stakes and finished 6th in the Breeders’ Cup Classic. Considered one of the best older horses last year. No word yet on when his next start will be but I am guessing it will be the Whitney Handicap on August 8th. He did work out July 4th at Saratoga.

Career: 18 Starts 7-4-2-1, Win Pct: 38.9%, Top 3 Pct: 72.2%, Top 4 Pct: 77.8%
Fastest 1 1/8 Mile Time: 1:47.37 – 7/27/13 (2013 Jim Dandy Stakes)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:00.78 (calculated)- 9/28/13 (2013 Jockey Club Gold Cup)
Best Finish in a 1 1/4 Mile Grade 1 Stakes Race: 2nd – 2013 Jockey Club Gold Cup

5) Lea (20/1) – In 2015, he has a win (Hal’s Hope Stakes), two second place finishes (Donn Handicap and Stephen Foster Handicap) and a third place finish. The third place finish was in the Dubai World Cup where he finished behind Prince Bishop and California Chrome. He has two impressive Beyer Speed Figures of 110 in the Hal’s Hope Stakes and 108 in the Stephen Foster Handicap. His next start will be the Whitney Handicap on August 8th.

Career: 16 Starts 7-4-3-1, Win Pct: 43.8%, Top 3 Pct: 87.5%, Top 4 Pct: 93.8%
Fastest 1 1/8 Mile Time: 1:46.86 – 2/9/14 (2014 Donn Handicap)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:03.88 (calculated)- 3/28/15 (2015 Dubai World Cup)
Best Finish in a 1 1/4 Mile Grade 1 Stakes Race: 3rd – 2015 Dubai World Cup

6) Effinex (50/1) – The Suburban Handicap winner, he has now produced two of the top four Beyer Speed Figures this year for races 1 1/4th mile or longer: 107 Beyer at Aqueduct on April 25th and his 108 Beyer on July 4th at Belmont. He could be peaking and maturing at the right time. His next start will be at Saratoga for the Whitney Handicap on August 8th.

Career: 16 Starts 6-1-2-2, Win Pct: 37.5%, Top 3 Pct: 56.25%, Top 4%: 68.8%
Fastest 1 1/8 Mile Time: 1:48.51 – 4/11/15 (2014 Empire Classic)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:01.55 – 7/4/15 (2015 Suburban Handicap)
Best Finish in a 1 1/4 Mile Grade 1 Stakes Race: N/A

7) Dortmund (12/1) – He finished 3rd in the Kentucky Derby and 4th in the Preakness Stakes. But remember that he has won 6 races out of 8 starts. Another Bob Baffert-trained horse that I expect to improve as I don’t think we have seen the best from him yet. He was supposed to be entered into the Los Alamitos Derby on July 4th but his next start appears to be the Jim Dandy Stakes on August 1st.

Career: 8 Starts 6-0-1-1, Win Pct: 75%, Top 3 Pct: 87.5%, Top 4 Pct: 100%
Fastest 1 1/8 Mile Time: 1:48.73 – 4/4/15 (2015 Santa Anita Derby)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:03.50 (calculated) – 5/2/15 (2015 Kentucky Derby)
Best Finish in a 1 1/4 Mile Grade 1 Stakes Race: 3rd – 2015 Kentucky Derby

8) Hoppertunity (10/1)  – In 2015, he has a win in the San Pasqual Stakes, two third place finishes in the San Antonio and Stephen Foster Handicap and lost to Hard Aces in the Gold Cup at Santa Anita by a nose. He is consistent and has never finished below fifth in eleven career starts. No word as to when his start start will be.

Career: 11 Starts 4-3-2-1, Win Pct: 36.4%, Top 3 Pct: 81.8%, Top 4 Pct: 90.9%
Fastest 1 1/8 Mile Time: 1:48.36 (calculated) – 4/5/14 (2014 Santa Anita Derby)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:02.47 (calculated) – 6/27/14 (2015 Gold Cup)
Best Finish in a 1 1/4 Mile Grade 1 Stakes Race: 2nd – 2015 Gold Cup

9) Hard Aces* (25/1) –  He has qualified for the Breeders’ Cup Classic with his win in the Gold Cup at Santa Anita. For 2015, he has two wins, a 3rd, a 4th and a 6th place finish. One wonders if his big win in the Gold Cup was more a byproduct of Victor Espinoza’s jockeying.

Career: 23 starts 6-3-7-2, Win Pct: 26.1%, Top 3 Pct: 69.6%, Top 4 Pct: 78.2%
Fastest 1 1/8 Mile Time: 1:48.37 (calculated) – 5/30/15 (2015 Californian Stakes)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:02.46 – 6/27/14 (2015 Gold Cup)
Best Finish in a 1 1/4 Mile Grade 1 Stakes Race: 1st – 2015 Gold Cup

10) Noble Bird* (No Odds) – He has qualified for the Breeders’ Cup Classic with his win in the Stephen Foster Handicap where he beat Lea while registering a 108 Beyer Speed Figure. Why Wynn Las Vegas has no odds listed for him is puzzling. He has won three out of his last four races. His only downside is that he has never raced longer than 1 1/8 mile.

Career: 10 Starts 4-3-0-1, Win Pct: 40%, Top 3 Pct: 70%, Top 4 Pct: 80%
Fastest 1 1/8 Mile Time: 1:47.94 – 6/13/15 (2015 Stephen Foster Handicap)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: N/A

11) Constitution (11/1) – Winner of 4 out 6 career starts which includes the Donn Handicap earlier in the year. Currently tied with Shared Belief for the Top Beyer Speed Figure in 2015 for races longer than a mile with a speed figure of 111. He has never raced longer than a 1 1/8th  mile. However, with his pedigree (Sire Tapit), I have no concerns that he will have distance issues. No word on when this Todd Pletcher-trained horse’s next start will be.

Career: 6 Starts 4-0-1-1, Win Pct: 66.7%, Top 3 Pct: 83.3%, Top 4 Pct: 100%
Fastest 1 1/8 Mile Time: 1:49.16 – 3/29/14 (2014 Florida Derby)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: N/A

12) Frosted (15/1) – Like Tonalist and Constitution, the son of Tapit. The winner of the Wood Memorial where he posted a 103 Beyer Speed Figure. He finished 4th in the Kentucky Derby and 2nd in the Belmont Stakes. His next start is likely to be the Jim Dandy Stakes August 1st, followed by Travers Stakes on August 29th.

Career: 9 Starts 2-5-0-2, Win Pct: 22.2%, Top 3 Pct: 77.8%, Top 4 Pct: 100%
Fastest 1 1/8 Mile Time: 1:50.31 – 4/4/15 (2015 Wood Memorial)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:03.54 (calculated) – 5/2/2015 (2015 Kentucky Derby)
Best Finish in a 1 1/4 Mile Grade 1 Stakes Race: 4th – 2015 Kentucky Derby

13) Honor Code (15/1) – The Met-Mile winner with a blazing 112 Beyer Speed Figure. He has a 5th place finish in th Alysheba Stakes and a win in the Gulfstream Park Handicap in his other two starts in 2015. He has a nice pedigree, the son of A.P. Indy and the grandson of Seattle Slew. He has yet to race longer than 1 1/8th mile but I am not concerned as he is bred for distance. He demonstrated that he has closing speed in the Met Mile. I expect this horse to move up the rankings. His next start will be the Whitney Handicap August 8th.

Career: 8 Starts 5-2-0-0, Win Pct: 62.5%, Top 3 Pct: 87.5%, Top 4 Pct: 87.5%, Top 4 Pct: 87.5%
Fastest 1 1/8 Mile Time: 1:52.92 – 11/30/14 (2014 Remsen Stakes)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: N/A

14) Texas Red (25/1) – He was my early Kentucky Derby favorite before his injury set-back. His closing style will be an asset in a 1 1/4 mile race. He finished 2nd in his most recent start in the 1 Mile Dwyer Stakes at Belmont on July 4th. He has never finished below 4th place in seven career starts. He has also never raced longer than 1 1/16 mile. His next start appears to be the Jim Dandy Stakes on August 1st.

Career: 7 Starts 2-3-1-1, Win Pct: 28.5%, Top 3 Pct: 85.7%, Top 4 Pct: 100%
Fastest 1 1/8 Mile Time: N/A
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: N/A

* – indicates horses who have already qualified for the Breeders’ Cup Classic

The remaining “Win and You’re In” Breeders’ Cup Classic Races:

Aug. 2nd – The Haskell Invitational at Monmouth Park – 1 1/8 Mile – Purse: $1,000,000 – NBC
Aug. 8th – The Whitney Handicap at Saratoga – 1 1/8 Mile – Purse: $1,500,000 – NBC
Aug. 22nd – The TVG Pacific Classic at Del Mar – 1 1/4 Mile – Purse: $1,000,000 – TVG
Sept. 26th – The Awesome Again Stakes at Santa Anita – 1 1/8 Mile – Purse: $250,000 – TVG
Oct. 3rd – Jockey Club Gold Cup Invitational at Belmont – 1 1/4 Mile – Purse: $1,000,000 – NBC

Other Notable Classic Division Races:

Aug. 29th – The Travers Stakes at Saratoga – 1 1/4 Mile – Purse: $1,000,000 – NBC
Sept. 5th – The Woodward Stakes at Saratoga – 1 1/8 Mile – Purse: $600,000 –  NBCSN

–Michael

California Chrome and Firing Line likely out for the season. Updated Breeders’ Cup Classic Contenders

Posted on by Michael J. Cox

With the recent news that California Chrome (cannon bone bruise) and Firing Line (foot bruise) are out for the rest of the year with injuries, below is my updated Breeder’s Cup Contender list. There is still a lot of talent left for the Classic.

1) American Pharoah – He currently is ranked #1 in Longines World’s Best Racehorse rankings and also ranked #1 in the most recent NTRA’s Top Thoroughbred poll. And much deserved as he is the first Triple Crown Winner in 37 years. His return to racing has been confirmed to be the Haskell Invitational August 2nd. Followed by the Travers Stakes August 29th. Career: 8 Starts 7-0-0-0, Win Pct: 87.5%, Top 3 Pct: 87.5%, Top 4 Pct: 87.5%

2) Effinex– The Suburban Handicap winner, he has now produced two of the top four Beyer Speed Figures this year for races 1 1/4th mile (or longer): 107 Beyer at Aqueduct in the Excelsior Stakes on April 25th and his 108 Beyer on July 4th at Belmont. He could be peaking and maturing at the right time. His next start will be at Saratoga for the Whitney Handicap on August 8th. Career: 16 Starts 6-1-2-2, Win Pct: 37.5%, Top 3 Pct: 56.25%, Top 4%: 68.8%

3) Tonalist – Last year’s Belmont Stakes and Jockey Club Gold Cup winner. For 2015, he has one win in the Westchester Stakes and now two 2nd places finishes (Met Mile and Suburban Handicap). He finished 5th in the Breeders’ Cup Classic last year. His 108 Beyer in the Suburban Handicap ranks as the third highest speed figure this year for races 1 1/4 mile. His next start will be the Whitney Handicap on August 8th. Career: 12 Starts 5-4-1-1, Win Pct: 41.7%, Top 3 Pct: 83.3%, Top 4 Pct: 91.7%

4) Bayern– Last year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic winner. His ranking is more due to his 2014 form. He has had two consecutive last place finishes (6th, 10th) in two starts this year. But both races were a mile or under. Many suspected that he might have an undetected ailment of some sort or not fully recovered from the quarter crack in his hind foot that kept him out of the San Antonio Stakes. However, Bob Baffert insists that he is in perfect health. I expect Bayern to bounce back. His next start appears to be the San Diego Handicap on July 25th. Another dud performance here and I wouldn’t be surprised if he gets put on the shelf. Career: 12 Starts 6-1-1-0, Win Pct: 50%, Top 3 Pct: 66.7%, Top 4 Pct: 66.7%

5) Dortmund– He finished 3rd in the Kentucky Derby and 4th in the Preakness Stakes. But remember that he has won 6 races out of 8 starts and he has never finished below 4th. Another Bob Baffert-trained horse that I expect to improve as I don’t think we have seen the best from him yet. He was supposed to be entered into the Los Alamitos Derby on July 4th but his next start appears to be the Jim Dandy Stakes on August 1st. Career: 8 Starts 6-0-1-1, Win Pct: 75%, Top 3 Pct: 87.5%, Top 4 Pct: 100%

6) Constitution – Winner of 4 out 6 career starts which includes the Donn Handicap earlier in the year. Currently tied with Shared Belief for the Top Beyer Speed Figure in 2015 for races longer than a mile with a speed figure of 111. He has never raced longer than a 1 1/8th  mile. However, with his pedigree (Sire Tapit), I have no concerns that he will have distance issues. No word on when this Todd Pletcher-trained horse’s next start will be. Career: 6 Starts 4-0-1-1, Win Pct: 66.7%, Top 3 Pct: 83.3%, Top 4 Pct: 100%

7) Lea – In 2015, he has a win (Hal’s Hope Stakes), two second place finishes (Donn Handicap and Stephen Foster Handicap) and a third place finish. The third place finish was in the Dubai World Cup where he finished behind Prince Bishop and California Chrome. He has two impressive Beyer Speed Figures of 110 in the Hal’s Hope Stakes and 108 in the Stephen Foster Handicap. His next start will be the Whitney Handicap on August 8th. Career: 16 Starts 7-4-3-1, Win Pct: 43.8%, Top 3 Pct: 87.5%, Top 4 Pct: 93.8%

8) Noble Bird* – He has qualified for the Breeders’ Cup Classic with his win in the Stephen Foster Handicap where he beat Lea while registering a 108 Beyer Speed Figure. He has won three out of his last four races. His only downside is that he has never raced longer than 1 1/8 mile. Career: 10 Starts 4-3-0-1, Win Pct: 40%, Top 3 Pct: 70%, Top 4 Pct: 80%

9) Palace Malice – He finished 3rd in his only start in 2015 in the 6 furlong Diablo Stakes at Belmont on May 10th. He won four out of five races last year, most notably the Metropolitan Handicap. In 2013, he won the Belmont Stakes and Jim Dandy Stakes. Considered one of the best older horses last year. No word yet on when his next start will be but I am guessing it will be the Whitney Handicap on August 8th. He did work out July 4th at Saratoga. Career: 18 Starts 7-4-2-1, Win Pct: 38.9%, Top 3 Pct: 72.2%, Top 4 Pct: 77.8%

10) Frosted – Like Tonalist and Constitution, the son of Tapit. The winner of the Wood Memorial where he posted a 103 Beyer Speed Figure. He finished 4th in the Kentucky Derby and 2nd in the Belmont Stakes. His next start is likely to be the Jim Dandy Stakes August 1st, followed by Travers Stakes on August 29th. Career: 9 Starts 2-5-0-2, Win Pct: 22.2%, Top 3 Pct: 77.8%, Top 4 Pct: 100%

11) Honor Code – The Met-Mile winner with a blazing 112 Beyer Speed Figure. He has a 5th place finish in th Alysheba Stakes and a win in the Gulfstream Park Handicap in his other two starts in 2015. He has a nice pedigree, the son of A.P. Indy and the grandson of Seattle Slew. He has yet to race longer than 1 1/8th mile but I am not concerned as he is bred for distance. He demonstrated that he has closing speed in the Met Mile. His next start will be the Whitney Handicap August 8th. Career: 8 Starts 5-2-0-0, Win Pct: 62.5%, Top 3 Pct: 87.5%, Top 4 Pct: 87.5%, Top 4 Pct: 87.5%

12) Hoppertunity  – In 2015, he has a win in the San Pasqual Stakes, two third place finishes in the San Antonio and Stephen Foster Handicap and lost to Hard Aces in the Gold Cup at Santa Anita by a nose. He is consistent and has never finished below fifth in eleven career starts. No word as to when his start start will be. Career: 11 Starts 4-3-2-1, Win Pct: 36.4%, Top 3 Pct: 81.8%, Top 4 Pct: 90.9%

13) Hard Aces* –  He has qualified for the Breeders’ Cup Classic with his win in the Gold Cup at Santa Anita. For 2015, he has two wins, a 3rd, a 4th and a 6th place finish. One wonders if his big win in the Gold Cup was more a byproduct of Victor Espinoza’s jockeying. Career: 23 starts 6-3-7-2, Win Pct: 26.1%, Top 3 Pct: 69.6%, Top 4 Pct: 78.2%

14) Texas Red – He was my early Kentucky Derby favorite before his injury set-back. His closing style will be an asset in a 1 1/4 mile race. He finished 2nd in his most recent start in the 1 Mile Dwyer Stakes at Belmont on July 4th. He has never finished below 4th place in seven career starts. His next start appears to be the Jim Dandy Stakes on August 1st. Career: 7 Starts 2-3-1-1, Win Pct: 28.5%, Top 3 Pct: 85.7%, Top 4 Pct: 100%

Other horses to keep an eye on:  Race Day, Wicked Strong, Moreno, Carpe Diem, Coach Inge, Commissioner and Protonico.

* – indicates horses who have already qualified for the Breeders’ Cup Classic

The remaining “Win and You’re In” Breeders’ Cup Classic Races:

Aug. 2nd – The Haskell Invitational at Monmouth Park – 1 1/8 Mile – Purse: $1,000,000 – NBC
Aug. 8th – The Whitney Handicap at Saratoga – 1 1/8 Mile – Purse: $1,500,000 – NBC
Aug. 22nd – The TVG Pacific Classic at Del Mar – 1 1/4 Mile – Purse: $1,000,000 – TVG
Sept. 26th – The Awesome Again Stakes at Santa Anita – 1 1/8 Mile – Purse: $250,000 – TVG
Oct. 3rd – Jockey Club Gold Cup Invitational at Belmont – 1 1/4 Mile – Purse: $1,000,000 – NBC

Other Notable Classic Division Races:

Aug. 29th – The Travers Stakes at Saratoga – 1 1/4 Mile – Purse: $1,250,000 – NBC
Sept. 5th – The Woodward Stakes at Saratoga – 1 1/8 Mile – Purse: $600,000 –  NBCSN

–Michael

American Pharoah: He’s “Pharoah” good. But where does he rank among the all-time great thoroughbreds?

Posted on by Michael J. Cox

American Pharoah (left) Secretariat (right)

With American Pharoah’s Triple Crown championship this year–the first in 37 years–it has generated a lot of discussion on where he ranks on the all-time greatest American thoroughbred lists. I decided to research this and give you my opinion. At first glance, he ranks somewhere between Secretariat and Seabiscuit–two horses who have had movies made about their careers.

Although Man o’War tops many lists, Secretariat, in my opinion, was the greatest thoroughbred of all-time. Both of these horses are usually 1-2 on most greatest thoroughbred lists. I give the nod to Secretariat because he was Triple Crown winner who still holds the track records for all three Triple Crown races (Kentucky Derby 1:59.4, Preakness Stakes 1:53 and Belmont Stakes 2:24). I personally don’t think any one horse will ever break two of these track records let alone all three. Secretariat was a total freak of nature.

In 1999, Blood-Horse magazine compiled a Top 100 Greatest U.S. Racehorses of All-Time which you can see by clicking HERE. The list generated a lot of controversy as Man o’War and Secretariat were virtually tied but a one voter ranked Secretariat 14th which gave the #1 spot to Man o’War. Seabiscuit, a horse known to many casual fans due to his Hollywood fame from several movies, ranked 25th in the poll.

Overall, I believe that American Pharoah is definitely one of the Top 20 racehorses of all-time because he is one of only 12 Triple Crown winners–the benchmark for great thoroughbreds. But not every great horse competed in all three Triple Crown races–most notably Man o’War because his owner didn’t think 3-year-olds should race 1 1/4 mile in May so he wasn’t entered into the Kentucky Derby. A few horses were late bloomers or had minor injuries that prevented them from a chance at a Triple Crown. So American Pharoah has to rank somewhere between Secretariat and Seabiscuit. But how close to the greatest horse of all-time?

I will state up front it is hard to compare horses from different eras. Advances in training and veterinary medicine along with air travel vs long hauls for a horse across the country in a trailer or train–have given the advantage to modern horses. However, there are also more thoroughbred foals today than the first part of the century, so that means more competition. And great horses in the modern era typically have shorter careers than horses of the first part of the 20th Century because owners don’t want to jeopardize injury and potential loss of lucrative stud-fees.

So with all of this in mind, below is how I would rank American Pharoah right now and his career is not over. On pure talent alone, I think has a chance to move up into the top 5. Note that his combined times in all three Triple Crown races ranks as the fourth best of all twelve Triple Crown Champions: 1) Secretariat (6:16.4), 2) Affirmed (6:22.4), 3) Seattle Slew (6:26.2) and 4) American Pharoah (6:28.13). And his Preakness Stakes win was on a sloppy wet track that hurt his time and cost him at least 2 seconds and maybe even as much 4 seconds. If he had run on a dry, fast track, I am convinced that his combined times would rank third.

My Top 10 Greatest American Thoroughbreds:

1) Secretariat – 1973 Triple Crown Champion, 16 wins in 21 career starts. Holds the track record for all 3 Triple Crown races. Also was 1973 American Male Turf Champion. ESPN’s Greatest Horse of the 20th Century. His 31-length victory in the 1973 Belmont Stakes ranks as the most impressive performance by a horse of all time.

2) Man o’War –  Won 20 of 21 starts, finished 2nd in his only non-win. Associated Press #1 horse of the Century. Sports Illustrated #1 greatest horse in racing history.

3) Citation – 1948 Triple Crown Champion, 32 wins in 45 career starts.

4) Kelso – His 3-Year-Old season started after the Triple Crown races. He won the US Horse of the Year a record five times (1960-1964). 39 wins in 63 career starts.

5) Seattle Slew – 1977 Triple Crown Champion, 14 wins in 17 career starts. The only Triple Crown winner to finish the series undefeated. He beat Affirmed head-to-head in the 1978 Marlboro Cup Invitational and finished ahead of him in the 1978 Jockey Club Gold Cup.

6) Affirmed – 1978 Triple Crown Champion, 22 wins in 29 career starts. Finished in the Top 3 in all but one start.

7) Count Fleet – 1943 Triple Crown Champion, 16 wins in 21 career starts. Never finished below third.

8) Native Dancer –  The first thoroughbred television star. 20 wins in 21 career starts. Won 1953 Preakness Stakes and Belmont Stakes. His only non-win was a 2nd place finish in the 1953 Kentucky Derby where he was bumped twice and lost by a head to Dark Star.

9) American Pharoah – 2015 Triple Crown Champion, 7 wins in 8 career starts. American Champion 2-Year-Old Male (2014) and he will undoubtedly will win 2015 Horse of the Year.

10) Dr Fagar – 18 wins in 21 career starts. Finished in the top 3 in every start except one where he was DQ’d but finished 1st. He is the only horse to ever hold four titles in one year (1968) when he was named the Horse of the Year, champion handicap horse, champion sprinter and co-champion grass horse.

In conclusion, I can say that we are truly blessed to see such a talent like American Pharoah. With movies having been made on Secretariat and Seabiscuit, we are watching the plot on the next big horse racing movie unfold. You’ve gotta love that!

–Michael

Holy Effinex! Updated Breeders’ Cup Classic Contenders

Posted on by Michael J. Cox

Effinex beats Tonalist in the Belmont Handicap – Photo Credit: NYRA/Adam Coglianese

If American Pharoah is going to become the first horse to win the Quadruple Crown (Triple Crown and Breeders’ Cup Classic), he has his work cut out for him. Yesterday’s Suburban Handicap at Belmont (video below) produced an exciting finish that saw Effinex beat Tonalist on a head bob. Both horses received 108 Beyer Speed Figures, the 2nd highest all year for races 1 & 1/4th mile or longer. (Note: Share Belief produced a 111 Beyer Speed Figure back in March in the 1 1/4th mile Santa Anita Handicap but is out for the year due to injury).

Effinex’s winning time was 2:01.55 for this 1 1/4 mile race–same distance as the Breeders’ Cup Classic. What was American Pharoah’s time in the Belmont Stakes through 1 1/4 miles 4 weeks ago? 2:02.37. But note that Effinex DNF’d on the same day at Belmont in the Brooklyn Invitational Stakes.

So here is my updated Breeder’s Cup Contender list:

1) American Pharoah – He currently is ranked #1 in Longines World’s Best Racehorse rankings and also ranked #1 in the most recent NTRA’s Top Thoroughbred poll. And much deserved as he is the first Triple Crown Winner in 37 years. His return to racing has been confirmed to be the Haskell Invitational August 2nd. Followed by the Travers Stakes August 29th

2) Effinex– He has now produced two of the top four Beyer Speed Figures this year for races 1 1/4th mile (or longer): 107 Beyer at Aqueduct on April 25th and his 108 Beyer on July 4th at Belmont. I will need to see another solid performance before I would move him ahead of American Pharoah. His next start will be at Saratoga for the Whitney Handicap on August 8th.

3) Tonalist– For 2015, he has one win in the Westchester Stakes and now two 2nd places finishes (Met Mile and Suburban Handicap). He finished 5th in the Breeders’ Cup Classic last year. His 108 Beyer in the Suburban Handicap ranks as the third highest speed figure this year for races 1 1/4 mile. His next start will be the Whitney Handicap on August 8th.

4) California Chrome – The 2014 Horse of the Year, he has had a decent 2015 with two 2nd places in two starts–the San Antonio Handicap (behind Shared Belief with a 105 Beyer Speed Figure) and Dubai World Cup. I really liked his performance in the Dubai World Cup even though he finished 2nd. He finished 3rd in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic. His next start is rumored to be the Arlington Million on August 15th. But note that if he runs in the Breeders’ Cup Classic, he will have a different jockey as Victor Espinoza will ride American Pharoah.

5) Firing Line – Although he bombed in the muddy Preakness Stakes, he never finished worst than 2nd before this race. And remember that he finished a length behind American Pharoah in the Kentucky Derby– the same 1 & 1/4 mile distance as the Breeders’ Cup Classic will be. Some horses don’t race well in the slop, so I think he deserves a Mulligan for his Preakness performance. He suffered a slight foot injury in June and is being pointed to return to racing for the Pacific Classic at Del Mar on August 22nd or the Travers Stakes at Saratoga on August 29th.

6) Bayern– Last year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic winner. He has had two consecutive last place finishes (6th, 10th) in two starts this year. But both races were a mile or under. However, this was thought to be his strength last year and many questioned how he would fare in two-turn races. Many suspected that he might have an undetected ailment of some sort but he is in perfect health. I expect this Bob Baffert-trained horse to bounce back. His next start appears to be the San Diego Handicap on July 25th. Another dud performance here and I wouldn’t be surprised if he gets put on the shelf.

7) Dortmund– He finished 3rd in the Kentucky Derby and 4th in the Preakness Stakes. But remember that he has won 6 races out of 8 starts. Another Bob Baffert-trained horse that I expect to improve as I don’t think we have seen the best from him yet. He was supposed to be entered into the Los Alamitos Derby on July 4th but his next start appears to be the Jim Dandy Stakes on August 1st.

8) Constitution– Winner of 4 out 6 career starts which includes the Donn Handicap earlier in the year. Currently tied with Shared Belief for the Top Beyer Speed Figure in 2015 for races longer than a mile with a speed figure of 111. He has never raced longer than a 1 1/8th  mile. However, with his pedigree (Sire Tapit), I have no concerns that he will have distance issues. No word on when his next start will be.

Other horses to keep an eye on: Lea, Noble Bird, Coach Inge, Palace Malice, Hard Aces, Moreno, Frosted, Honor Code, Hoppertunity, Texas Red and Toast of New York who finished 2nd in the Breeders’ Cup Classic last year but has yet to race this year. Texas Red was my early Kentucky Derby favorite before his injury set-back. His closing style will be an asset in a 1 1/4 mile race. He finished 2nd in his return to race yesterday in the 1 Mile Dwyer Stakes at Belmont.

–Michael