Month: August 2015

Keen Ice stuns Travers crowd. Updated Breeders’ Cup Rankings

Posted on by Michael J. Cox

After Keen Ice’s stunning upset of American Pharoah on Saturday (video shown below), there were hints from Zayat Stables that American Pharoah could be retired. This is premature and hopefully just an emotional response. The last Triple Crown winner to win the Travers Stakes was Whirlaway in 1941. Although the upset radar was in on in full force on Saturday at Saratoga–known as the Graveyard of Champions–nobody saw Keen Ice as the upset threat. Texas Red, Frosted, Upstart…yes but most had Keen Ice in their top 4 or 5. His recent workouts were mediocre.

The race played out like I thought it would through 9 furlongs–American Pharoah and Frosted. But Keen Ice came from literally nowhere and seemed to have an extragear that American Pharoah and Frosted didn’t have. You have got to be impressed with his effort. Keen Ice isn’t near the horse that American Pharoah is. He finished 7th in the Kentucky Derby, 3rd in the Belmont and 2nd in the Haskell Invitational behind American Pharoah. But he ran the race of his life Saturday and upset the Triple Crown champion.

American Pharoah will bounce back. But now the 5 year old mare Beholder is the odds-on favorite to win the Superbowl of horse racing in October–The Breeders’ Cup Classic.

Here is my updated Breeders’ Cup rankings and updated Vegas Odds. Please note that Palace Malice, who had been in some of my previous rankings, has been retired:

1) Beholder*  (6/1) – She confirmed that she likes distance and can race with the boys. She received a 114 Beyer Speed Figure for her TVG Pacific Classic win. The first female to win the Pacific Classic.  She has reeled off five straight wins. Her next start will be the Zenyatta Stakes at Santa Anita on September 26th.

Career: 20 Starts 15-3-0-2, Win Pct: 75%, Top 3 Pct: 90%, Top 4 Pct: 100%
Fastest 1 1/8 Mile Time: 1:47.77 – 11/1/13 (2013 Breeders Cup Distaffl)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 1:59.77 – 8/22/15 (2015 TVG Pacific Classic)
Best Finish in a 1 1/4 Mile Grade 1 Stakes Race: 1st – 2015 TVG Pacific Classic

2) American Pharoah* (5/2)  –  He drops to #2 due to his performance in the Travers that was good (he shook off Frosted) but not Pharoah good. I take this as a blip on the radar at Saratoga–known as the Graveyard of Champions. One thing that is concerning though. His two toughest races have been the Kentucky Derby and the Travers Stakes, both 1 1/4 mile distance races as the Breeders’ Cup Classic will be. And to make matters worse, he will face tougher competition in the Breeders’ Cup Classic. His next start is up in the air as his owner has hinted at retirement.

Career: 10 Starts 8-1-0-0, Win Pct: 80%, Top 3 Pct: 90%, Top 4 Pct: 90%
Fastest 1 1/8 Mile Time: 1:47.95 – 8/2/15 (2015 Haskell Invitational)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:01.69 (calculated) – 8/29/15 (2015 Travers Stakes)
Best Finish in a 1 1/4 Mile Grade 1 Stakes Race: 1st – 2015 Kentucky Derby

3) Honor Code* (6/1) – The Met-Mile winner with a blazing 112 Beyer Speed Figure. He produced another sizzling 113 Beyer Speed Figure in the Whitney Handicap. This makes his 5th place finish in the Alysheba Stakes puzzling. He has a nice pedigree, the son of A.P. Indy and the grandson of Seattle Slew. He has yet to race longer than 1 1/8th mile but I think he will fare even better in a 1 1/4 mile race–he is bred for distance. His next start could be the Jockey Gold Cup race October 3rd at Belmont Park.

Career: 9 Starts 6-2-0-0, Win Pct: 66.7%, Top 3 Pct: 88.9%, Top 4 Pct: 88.9%
Fastest 1 1/8 Mile Time: 1:47.82 – 8/8/15 (2015 Whitney Handicap)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: N/A

4) Tonalist (15/1)  – Last year’s Belmont Stakes and Jockey Club Gold Cup winner. For 2015, he has one win in the Westchester Stakes, two 2nd places finishes (Met Mile and Suburban Handicap) and a 3rd place finish (Whitney Handicap). His third place finish in the Whitney Handicap produced a 110 Beyer Speed Figure. He produced a 108 Beyer in the Suburban Handicap and a 111 Beyer in the Met Mile. And he is better at races 1 1/4 mile or longer. He finished 5th in the Breeders’ Cup Classic last year. His next start will be the Jockey Club Gold Cup on October 3rd.

Career: 13 Starts 5-4-2-1, Win Pct: 38.5%, Top 3 Pct: 84.6%, Top 4 Pct: 92.3%
Fastest 1 1/8 Mile Time: 1:48.1 (calculated) – 8/8/15 (2015 Whitney Handicap)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:00.69 (calculated) – 11/1/14 (2014 Breeders’ Cup Classic)
Best Finish in a 1 1/4 Mile Grade 1 Stakes Race: 1st – 2014 Jockey Club Gold Cup

5) Keen Ice (10/1) – A horse that finished 7th in the Kentucky Derby, 3rd in the Belmont Stakes and 2nd behind American Pharoah in the Haskell Invitational (105 Beyer Speed Figure) and then finally beat him in the Travers Stakes. His Beyer Speed Figure for the Travers was 106. He is improving. His next start is rumored to be the Jockey Club Gold Cup on October 3rd.

Career: 10 Starts 2-1-3-2, Win Pct: 20%, Top 3 Pct: 60%, Top 4 Pct: 80%
Fastest 1 1/8 Mile Time: 1:48.31 (calculated) – 8/2/15 (2015 Haskell Invitational)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:01.57 – 8/29/15 (2015 Travers Stakes)
Best Finish in a 1 1/4 Mile Grade 1 Stakes Race: 1st – 2015 Travers Stakes

6) Catch A Flight  (25/1) – The Argentinian horse has never finished below 3rd in his North American career thus far. He is ridden by Hall of Fame jockey Gary Stevens. He finished 3rd in the Santa Anita Handicap in March behind Shared Belief and Moreno, but beat Moreno in the Californian Stakes on May 30th (106 Beyer Speed Figure). He finished third behind Hard Aces and Hoppertunity in the Gold Cup at Santa Anita June 27th, but beat Hoppertunity in the San Diego Handicap. Then he finished 2nd and 8 1/4 lengths behind Beholder in the TVG Pacific Classic. No word on when and where his next start will be.

Career (North America) : 8 Starts 4-1-3-0, Win Pct: 50%, Top 3 Pct: 100%, Top 4 Pct: 100%
Fastest 1 1/8 Mile Time: 1:47.73 – 5/30/14 (2015 Californian Stakes)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:01.09 (calculated) – 8/22/15 (2015 TVG Pacific Classic)
Best Finish in a 1 1/4 Mile Grade 1 Stakes Race: 2nd –2015 TVG Pacific Classic

7) Frosted (18/1) – He has a 4th place finish in the Kentucky Derby, a 2nd place finish in the Belmont Stakes and a 3rd place finish in the Travers Stakes.  He is a quality horse who has never finished below 4th place in 11 career starts. His next start is rumored to be the Jockey Club Gold Cup on October 3rd.

Career: 11 Starts 2-6-1-2, Win Pct: 18.2%, Top 3 Pct: 81.8%, Top 4 Pct: 100%
Fastest 1 1/8 Mile Time: 1:48.85 (calculated) – 8/1/15 (2015 Jim Dandy Stakes)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:02.05 (calculated) – 8/29/2015 (2015 Travers Stakes)
Best Finish in a 1 1/4 Mile Grade 1 Stakes Race: 3rd – 2015 Travers Stakes

8) Liam’s Map (25/1) – Although it appeared that he faded a bit down the stretch in the Whitney Handicap, it was more like Honor Code dug in to beat him by a neck. You had to be impressed with this horse’s first graded stakes race against a highly talented field. Like Honor Code, he received a 113 Beyer Speed Figure in the Whitney. He has never finished below 2nd in 6 career starts. My only concern is how well will he be able to stretch out to a 1 1/4 mile? His next start is expected to be the Woodward Stakes September 5th.

Career: 6 Starts 4-2-0-0, Win Pct: 66.7%, Top 3 Pct: 100%, Top 4 Pct: 100%
Fastest 1 1/8 Mile Time: 1:47.86 (calculated) – 8/8/15 (2015 Whitney Handicap)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: N/A

9) Effinex (30/1)  – The Suburban Handicap winner, he has now produced two of the top four Beyer Speed Figures this year for races 1 1/4th mile or longer: 107 Beyer at Aqueduct on April 25th and his 107 Beyer on July 4th at Belmont. Sandwiched in between was a DNF in the Brooklyn Handicap where he oddly veered away from the rest of the pack coming around a turn. He worked out at Saratoga July 29th and August 2nd. His next start will be the Woodward Stakes at Saratoga on September 5th.

Career: 16 Starts 6-1-2-2, Win Pct: 37.5%, Top 3 Pct: 56.25%, Top 4%: 68.8%
Fastest 1 1/8 Mile Time: 1:48.51 – 4/11/15 (2014 Empire Classic)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:01.55 – 7/4/15 (2015 Suburban Handicap)
Best Finish in a 1 1/4 Mile Grade 1 Stakes Race: N/A

10) Hoppertunity  (22/1) – Not likely a Breeders’ Cup Classic winner but a horse who is consistent enough to finish in the money. In 10 career graded stakes race starts, he has never finished below 4th. In 2015, he has a win in the San Pasqual Stakes, two third place finishes in the San Antonio and Stephen Foster Handicap, lost to Hard Aces in the Gold Cup at Santa Anita by a nose and fourth place finishes in the San Diego Handicap and TVG Pacific Classic. No word on where his start will be.

Career: 13 Starts 4-3-2-3, Win Pct: 30.7%, Top 3 Pct: 69.2%, Top 4 Pct: 92.3%
Fastest 1 1/8 Mile Time: 1:48.36 (calculated) – 4/5/14 (2014 Santa Anita Derby)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:01.33 (calculated) – 8/22/15 (2015 TVG Pacific Classic)
Best Finish in a 1 1/4 Mile Grade 1 Stakes Race: 2nd – 2015 Gold Cup

11) Hard Aces* (25/1)  –  He has qualified for the Breeders’ Cup Classic with his win in the Gold Cup at Santa Anita. For 2015, he has two wins, a 3rd, a 4th and a 6th place finish. One wonders if his big win in the Gold Cup was more a byproduct of Victor Espinoza’s jockeying. His recent workouts at Del Mar have been good, most notably a 1:26.60 in 7 furlongs. His next start is uncertain.

Career: 23 starts 6-3-7-2, Win Pct: 26.1%, Top 3 Pct: 69.6%, Top 4 Pct: 78.2%
Fastest 1 1/8 Mile Time: 1:48.37 (calculated) – 5/30/15 (2015 Californian Stakes)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:02.01 (calculated) – 8/22/15 (2015 TVG Pacific Classic)
Best Finish in a 1 1/4 Mile Grade 1 Stakes Race: 1st – 2015 Gold Cup

12) Dortmund (25/1) – He finished 3rd in the Kentucky Derby and 4th in the Preakness Stakes. But remember that he has won 6 races out of 8 starts. Another Bob Baffert-trained horse that I expect to improve as I don’t think we have seen the best from him yet. However, he suffered bruised ribs in a gate mishap last week and his next start is uncertain.

Career: 8 Starts 6-0-1-1, Win Pct: 75%, Top 3 Pct: 87.5%, Top 4 Pct: 100%
Fastest 1 1/8 Mile Time: 1:48.73 – 4/4/15 (2015 Santa Anita Derby)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:03.50 (calculated) – 5/2/15 (2015 Kentucky Derby)
Best Finish in a 1 1/4 Mile Grade 1 Stakes Race: 3rd – 2015 Kentucky Derby

13) Texas Red (18/1) – A fifth place finish in the Travers was disappointing but he is still recoveringHe earned a 105 Beyer Speed Figure with his win in the Jim Dandy Stakes. He won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile as a two year old and was my early Kentucky Derby favorite before his injury. No word yet on when his next start will be.

Career: 9 Starts 3-3-1-1, Win Pct: 33.3%, Top 3 Pct: 77.8%, Top 4 Pct: 88.9%
Fastest 1 1/8 Mile Time: 1:48.77 – 8/1/2015 (2015 Jim Dandy Stakes)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:02.45 (calculated) – 8/29/2015 (2015 Travers Stakes)
Best Finish in a 1 1/4 Mile Grade 1 Stakes Race: 5th – 2015 Travers Stakes

14) Noble Bird* (20/1) – I am not sure what happened to Noble Bird in the Whitney Handicap where he finished dead last. He has qualified for the Breeders’ Cup Classic with his win in the Stephen Foster Handicap where he beat Lea while registering a 108 Beyer Speed Figure. His only downside is that he has never raced longer than 1 1/8 mile. His next start is uncertain.

Career: 11 Starts 4-3-0-1, Win Pct: 36.4%, Top 3 Pct:63.6%, Top 4 Pct: 73.7%
Fastest 1 1/8 Mile Time: 1:47.94 – 6/13/15 (2015 Stephen Foster Handicap)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: N/A

* Indicates a horse who has already qualified for the Breeders’ Cup Classic.

Below is a ranking by Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Times for 2015 Breeders’ Cup Contenders. For calculated times of non-winning horses, I used the official race time of the winner and the following to compute an estimated time [One length is equal to 0.16 seconds, three-quarters of a length is equal to 0.12, a half-length equals 0.08, a neck is equal to 0.04, a head is equal to 0.02 and a nose is 0.01].

1) Beholder*  – 1:59.77 – 8/22/15 at Del Mar (1st in 2015 TVG Pacific Classic)
2) Tonalist  – 2:00.69 (calculated) – 11/1/14 at Santa Anita (5th in 2014 Breeders’ Cup Classic)
3) Catch A Flight  – 2:01.09 (calculated) – 8/22/15 at Del Mar (2nd in 2015 TVG Pacific Classic)
4) Hoppertunity  – 2:01.33 (calculated) – 8/22/15 at Del Mar (4th in 2015 TVG Pacific Classic)
5) Effinex  – 2:01.55 – 7/4/15 at Belmont (1st in 2015 Suburban Handicap)
6) Keen Ice – 2:01.57 – 8/29/15 at Saratoga (1st in 2015 Travers Stakes)
7) American Pharoah*  –  2:01.69 (calculated) – 8/29/15 at Saratoga (2nd in 2015 Travers Stakes)
8) Hard Aces*  –  2:02.01 (calculated) – 8/22/15 at Del Mar (6th in 2015 TVG Pacific Classic)
9) Frosted – 2:02.05 (calculated) – 8/29/2015 at Saratoga (2nd in 2015 Travers Stakes)
10) Texas Red – 2:02.45 (calculated) – 8/29/2015 at Saratoga (5th in 2015 Travers Stakes)
11) Dortmund – 2:03.50 (calculated) – 5/2/2015 at Churchill Downs (3rd in 2015 Kentucky Derby)

Honor Code, Liam’s Map and Noble Bird have never raced at the 1 1/4 mile distance.

The remaining “Win and You’re In” Breeders’ Cup Classic Races:

Sept. 26th – The Awesome Again Stakes at Santa Anita – 1 1/8 Mile – Purse: $250,000 – TVG
Oct. 3rd – Jockey Club Gold Cup Invitational at Belmont – 1 1/4 Mile – Purse: $1,000,000 – NBC

Other Notable Classic Division Races:

Sept. 5th – The Woodward Stakes at Saratoga – 1 1/8 Mile – Purse: $600,000 –  NBCSN
–Michael

2015 Travers Stakes Preview: Should American Pharoah be on upset alert?

Posted on by Michael J. Cox

Today at 4:46 PM CST on NBC, American Pharoah gets a chance to extend his 8 race winning streak in the Travers Stakes at Saratoga. This 1 1/4 mile race has a $1.6 million dollar purse and will be a good gauge for the Breeders’ Cup Classic as it is run at the same 1 1/4 mile distance. Below are post positions, jockey/trainer and morning line odds:

1. Upstart – Ortiz Jr./Violette – 15-1
2. American Pharoah – Espinoza/Baffert – 1-5
3. Mid Ocean – Franco/Weaver – 50-1
4. Texas Red – Desormeaux/Desormeaux – 8-1
5. Frammento – Ortiz/Zito – 30-1
6. Frosted – Rosario/McLaughlin – 6-1
7. Keen Ice – Castellano/Romans – 12-1
8. Tale of Verve – Stevens/Stewart – 30-1
9. King of New York – Leparoux/McPeek – 50-1
10. Smart Transition – Velazquez/Shirreffs – 20-1

Saratoga has a history of producing upsets and many felt Bob Baffert should skip the Travers and run American Pharoah in the Woodward Stakes next weekend. As a result, a few members of the horse racing media (Kevin Cox, Mike Watchmaker and Michelle Yu) are calling for an upset today and predicting Texas Red as the race winner. My opinion? It is not going to happen. American Pharoah will prevail again.

Texas Red was my early Kentucky Derby favorite before his injury back in February. As a 2-year-old, he demonstrated in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile race (shown below) the ability as a closer that would make him a serious threat in a 1 1/4 mile race like the Kentucky Derby and especially with fast opening fractions. But he has had to slowly work his way back from injury and I just don’t think his workout times and two previous post-injury races (Dwyer Stakes and Jim Dandy Stakes) have given me any cause for upset alarm today.

Texas Red beat Frosted in the Jim Dandy Stakes (video click HERE) but this was a 1 1/8 mile race and like Frosted’s long strides to edge out Texas Red in a 1 1/4 mile race.

My predicted finishing order (I think the Saratoga track handicapper has got this one right): 1) American Pharoah, 2) Frosted, 3) Texas Red, 4) Keen Ice, 5) Upstart, 6) Smart Transition, 7) Tale of Verve, 8) Frammento, 9) King of New York, 10) Mid Ocean

–Michael

Behold! An impressive performance by Beholder

Posted on by Michael J. Cox

Beholder romps in the Pacific Classic – photo Nelvin C. Cepeda

A few weeks ago, it was Honor Code.  Yesterday, it was Beholder. Two great horses with a few question marks that have totally dazzled their skeptics. The 5-year-old mare Beholder had never raced longer than 1 1/8 mile. She had also never raced against this level of competition. But she romped in the 1 1/4 mile TVG Pacific Classic (video shown below), winning by 8 1/4 lengths and producing a sizzling time of 1:59.77. For comparison purposes, this time was faster than Shared Belief (2:00.28) and Game On Dude’s (2:00.69) times the two previous years. I had questioned Gary Stevens’ decision to ride Beholder over the more distance accomplished Catch a Flight from the Mandella stable. Catch a Flight is a great horse, he finished 2nd. But Gary Stevens knew what he was doing–Beholder liked the added distance. In fact, she excelled with the added distance.

Overall, this race gave us some valuable new information. Bayern, who finished 9th, is probably off the Breeders’ Cup Classic trail. Last year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic winner hasn’t been the same horse since his injury earlier in the year. He seems to start well but fades down the stretch. Hard Aces finished a disappointing 6th and it appears that his win in the 2015 Gold Cup may have been a fluke. Hoppertunity finished 4th. He has never finished below 4th in ten graded stakes races. Red Vine had a surprisingly nice run finishing 3rd. It will be interesting to see the Beyer Speed Figures for this race tomorrow.

At any rate, the 2015 Breeders Cup Classic is shaping up to be a monster media event if Beholder’s owner chooses to enter her and he is leaning that way. So here is your future Boxed Superfecta for the Breeders’ Cup Classic. I will post a more complete ranking list later in the week.

1) American Pharoah*  – He confirmed his #1 ranking with his performance in the Haskell Invitational with a sizzling 109 Beyer Speed Figure. He now has reeled off eight straight wins. He currently is ranked #1 in Longines World’s Best Racehorse rankings and ranked #1 in the most recent NTRA’s Top Thoroughbred poll. His next start has been confirmed to be the Travers Stakes August 29th.

Career: 9 Starts 8-0-0-0, Win Pct: 88.9%, Top 3 Pct: 88.9%, Top 4 Pct: 88.9%
Fastest 1 1/8 Mile Time: 1:47.95 – 8/2/15 (2015 Haskell Invitational)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:03.02 – 5/2/15 (2015 Kentucky Derby)
Best Finish in a 1 1/4 Mile Grade 1 Stakes Race: 1st – 2015 Kentucky Derby

2) Beholder*  – She confirmed that she likes distance and can race with the boys. She received a 114 Beyer Speed Figure for her TVG Pacific Classic win. The first female to win the Pacific Classic.  She has reeled off five straight wins. She is currently is ranked #3 in the August 17th NTRA’s Top Thoroughbred poll. My guess is that she will move up to #2 in the next poll. Her next start will be the Zenyatta Stakes at Santa Anita on September 26th.

Career: 20 Starts 15-3-0-2, Win Pct: 75%, Top 3 Pct: 90%, Top 4 Pct: 100%
Fastest 1 1/8 Mile Time: 1:47.77 – 11/1/13 (2013 Breeders Cup Distaffl)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 1:59.77 – 8/22/15 (2015 TVG Pacific Classic)
Best Finish in a 1 1/4 Mile Grade 1 Stakes Race: 1st – 2015 TVG Pacific Classic

3) Honor Code* – The Met-Mile winner with a blazing 112 Beyer Speed Figure. He produced another sizzling 113 Beyer Speed Figure in the Whitney Handicap. This makes his 5th place finish in the Alysheba Stakes puzzling. He has a nice pedigree, the son of A.P. Indy and the grandson of Seattle Slew. He ranks 2nd in NTRA’s Top Thoroughbred behind American Pharoah. He has yet to race longer than 1 1/8th mile and that is why I can’t rank him ahead of American Pharoah despite his impressive speed figures. But I am not concerned as I think he will fare even better in a 1 1/4 mile race–he is bred for distance. His next start could be the Jockey Gold Cup race October 3rd at Belmont Park.

Career: 9 Starts 6-2-0-0, Win Pct: 66.7%, Top 3 Pct: 88.9%, Top 4 Pct: 88.9%
Fastest 1 1/8 Mile Time: 1:47.82 – 8/8/15 (2015 Whitney Handicap)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: N/A

4) Tonalist  – Last year’s Belmont Stakes and Jockey Club Gold Cup winner. For 2015, he has one win in the Westchester Stakes, two 2nd places finishes (Met Mile and Suburban Handicap) and a 3rd place finish (Whitney Handicap). His third place finish in the Whitney Handicap produced a 110 Beyer Speed Figure. He produced a 108 Beyer in the Suburban Handicap and a 111 Beyer in the Met Mile. And he is better at races 1 1/4 mile or longer. He finished 5th in the Breeders’ Cup Classic last year. His next start will be the Jockey Club Gold Cup on October 3rd.

Career: 13 Starts 5-4-2-1, Win Pct: 38.5%, Top 3 Pct: 84.6%, Top 4 Pct: 92.3%
Fastest 1 1/8 Mile Time: 1:48.1 (calculated) – 8/8/15 (2015 Whitney Handicap)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:00.69 (calculated) – 11/1/14 (2014 Breeders’ Cup Classic)
Best Finish in a 1 1/4 Mile Grade 1 Stakes Race: 1st – 2014 Jockey Club Gold Cup

* – indicates horses who have already qualified for the Breeders’ Cup Classic

The remaining “Win and You’re In” Breeders’ Cup Challenge Races (Classic Division):

Sept. 26th – The Awesome Again Stakes at Santa Anita – 1 1/8 Mile – Purse: $250,000 – TVG
Oct. 3rd – Jockey Club Gold Cup Invitational at Belmont – 1 1/4 Mile – Purse: $1,000,000 – NBC

Other Notable Classic Division Races:

Aug. 29th – The Travers Stakes at Saratoga – 1 1/4 Mile – Purse: $1,000,000 – NBC
Sept. 5th – The Woodward Stakes at Saratoga – 1 1/8 Mile – Purse: $600,000 –  NBCSN

–Michael

TVG Pacific Classic Preview – Beholder vs The Boys

Posted on by Michael J. Cox

It is not too often that the girls compete against the boys but that is what we have tonight at 8:10pm CST in the TVG Pacific Classic at Del Mar with a 5 year old mare “Beholder” competing against some of the top Classic division horses like Bayern, Catch A Flight, Hard Aces and Hoppertunity. Beholder is great horse and she is the morning line favorite.

This 1 1/4 mile race is a “Win and You’re In” race for the Breeders’ Cup Classic and carries a $1 Million dollar purse. The race will be televised live on TVG. Due its 1 1/4 mile distance, this will be a good gauge for the Breeders’ Cup Classic. Below are post positions, weights, jockeys and morning line odds:

PP horse (weight) jockey/trainer odds

1. Class Leader (124) Smith/Sadler 15-1
2. Bailoutbobby (124) Graham/O’Neill 20-1
3. Bayern (124) Bejarano/Baffert 6-1
4. Hard Aces (124) Espinoza/Sadler 5-1
5. Red Vine (124) Rosario/Clement 6-1
6. Imperative (124) Nakatani/Baltas 12-1
7. Catch a Flight (124) Prat/Mandella 9-2
8. Hoppertunity (124) Garcia/Baffert 5-1
9. Beholder (119) Stevens/Mandella 5-2
10. Midnight Storm (124) Baze/D’Amato 20-1

Overall, my thoughts. Beholder is a formidable opponent. She is riden by Gary Stevens, who chose Beholder over Catch A Flight for his ride. I am a bit surprised by this decision because Beholder has never raced longer than 1 1/8 mile distance. Martin Garcia chose Hoppertunity over Bayern for his mount. No surprise there, Hoppertunity has been a better horse than Bayern this year.

Although she is the 5/2 morning line favorite, I don’t think Beholder will win this race. She has never raced longer than 1 1/8 mile. However, I do think she will finish in the money. I think the win will come down to three horses: Hoppertunity, Catch A Flight and Hard Aces, with Beholder being in the mix but fading a bit at the end. Red Vine is 6/1 odds but hasn’t raced longer than 1 3/8 miles where he finished 4th in an allowance race. Imperative is a 12/1 odds and finished 3rd in last year’s Pacific Classic. But he has had a few stinker performances since then.

Bayern hasn’t done anything this year to make me believe in will finish in the Top 4 as he has faded out down the stretch in shorter distance races. So this rules out an expensive Superfecta Box with five horses including Bayern. Bailoutbobby, Class Leader and Midnight Storm are the three longshots. As far as longshots having a chance to finish in the Top 4, I like Bailoutbobby’s chances the best. So here is my betting advice. How about a $4 Boxed Superfecta with four horses (4-7-8-9). This would cost $96. And hope that the longer odds horse of the four (most likely Hard Aces) wins the race as it will pay out nicer.

–Michael

Updated 2015 Breeders’ Cup Contender Rankings – American Pharoah and Honor Code 1-2

Posted on by Michael J. Cox

My updated Breeders’ Cup Classic Contender Rankings. Dropping out of my top 14 are Palace Malice and Lea. Palace Malice finished 4th in the Alydar Stakes. He didn’t seem to be much of a factor and really had labor to grind out a spot in the money against a mediocre field. Lea, who many experts picked to win the Whitney Handicap, had a disappointing 6th place finish and faded a bit towards the end. Nobody expected to see either of these horses backslide like they did. Same goes for Noble Bird who finished dead last in the Whitney but remains 14th in my rankings by virtue of already having secured a spot in the Breeders’ Cup Classic field.

1) American Pharoah*  – He confirmed his #1 ranking with his performance in the Haskell Invitational with a sizzling 109 Beyer Speed Figure. He now has reeled off eight straight wins. He currently is ranked #2 in Longines World’s Best Racehorse rankings and ranked #1 in the most recent NTRA’s Top Thoroughbred poll. His next start after the Haskell has not been confirmed but expected to be the Travers Stakes August 29th.

Career: 9 Starts 8-0-0-0, Win Pct: 88.9%, Top 3 Pct: 88.9%, Top 4 Pct: 88.9%
Fastest 1 1/8 Mile Time: 1:47.95 – 8/2/15 (2015 Haskell Invitational)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:03.02 – 5/2/15 (2015 Kentucky Derby)
Best Finish in a 1 1/4 Mile Grade 1 Stakes Race: 1st – 2015 Kentucky Derby

2) Honor Code* – The Met-Mile winner with a blazing 112 Beyer Speed Figure. He produced another sizzling 113 Beyer Speed Figure in the Whitney Handicap. This makes his 5th place finish in the Alysheba Stakes puzzling. He has a nice pedigree, the son of A.P. Indy and the grandson of Seattle Slew. He ranks 2nd in NTRA’s Top Thoroughbred behind American Pharoah. He has yet to race longer than 1 1/8th mile and that is why I can’t rank him ahead of American Pharoah despite his impressive speed figures. But I am not concerned as I think he will fare even better in a 1 1/4 mile race–he is bred for distance. His next start could be the Jockey Gold Cup race October 3rd at Belmont Park.

Career: 9 Starts 6-2-0-0, Win Pct: 66.7%, Top 3 Pct: 88.9%, Top 4 Pct: 88.9%
Fastest 1 1/8 Mile Time: 1:47.82 – 8/8/15 (2015 Whitney Handicap)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: N/A

3) Tonalist  – Last year’s Belmont Stakes and Jockey Club Gold Cup winner. For 2015, he has one win in the Westchester Stakes, two 2nd places finishes (Met Mile and Suburban Handicap) and a 3rd place finish (Whitney Handicap). His third place finish in the Whitney Handicap produced a 110 Beyer Speed Figure. He produced a 108 Beyer in the Suburban Handicap and a 111 Beyer in the Met Mile. And he is better at races 1 1/4 mile or longer. He finished 5th in the Breeders’ Cup Classic last year. His next start will be the Jockey Club Gold Cup on October 3rd.

Career: 13 Starts 5-4-2-1, Win Pct: 38.5%, Top 3 Pct: 84.6%, Top 4 Pct: 92.3%
Fastest 1 1/8 Mile Time: 1:48.1 (calculated) – 8/8/15 (2015 Whitney Handicap)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:00.69 (calculated) – 11/1/14 (2014 Breeders’ Cup Classic)
Best Finish in a 1 1/4 Mile Grade 1 Stakes Race: 1st – 2014 Jockey Club Gold Cup

4) Catch A Flight  – The Argentinian horse has never finished below 3rd in his North American career thus far. He has won 10 of 17 career starts, 4 out of 7 in North America. He is ridden by Hall of Fame jockey Gary Stevens and appears to be an upcoming horse who is getting better as his San Diego Handicap performance indicates. He finished 3rd in the Santa Anita Handicap in March behind Shared Belief and Moreno, but beat Moreno in the Californian Stakes on May 30th (106 Beyer Speed Figure). He finished third behind Hard Aces and Hoppertunity in the Gold Cup at Santa Anita June 27th, but beat Hoppertunity in the San Diego Handicap. His next start is confirmed as the TVG Pacific Classic at Del Mar on August 22nd.

Career (North America) : 7 Starts 4-0-3-0, Win Pct: 57.1%, Top 3 Pct: 100%, Top 4 Pct: 100%
Fastest 1 1/8 Mile Time: 1:47.73 – 5/30/14 (2015 Californian Stakes)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:01.37 (calculated) – 3/7/15 (2015 Santa Anita Handicap)
Best Finish in a 1 1/4 Mile Grade 1 Stakes Race: 3rd – 2015 Santa Anita Handicap

5) Liam’s Map – Although it appeared that he faded a bit down the stretch in the Whitney Handicap, it was more like Honor Code dug in to beat him by a neck. You had to be impressed with this horse’s first graded stakes race against a highly talented field. Like Honor Code, he received a 113 Beyer Speed Figure in the Whitney. He has never finished below 2nd in 6 career starts. My only concern is how well will he be able to stretch out to a 1 1/4 mile? However, he looks like a horse on the rise under the guise of one the top trainers in Todd Pletcher.

Career: 6 Starts 4-2-0-0, Win Pct: 66.7%, Top 3 Pct: 100%, Top 4 Pct: 100%
Fastest 1 1/8 Mile Time: 1:47.86 (calculated) – 8/8/15 (2015 Whitney Handicap)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: N/A

6) Effinex  – The Suburban Handicap winner, he has now produced two of the top four Beyer Speed Figures this year for races 1 1/4th mile or longer: 107 Beyer at Aqueduct on April 25th and his 107 Beyer on July 4th at Belmont. Sandwiched in between was a DNF in the Brooklyn Handicap where he oddly veered away from the rest of the pack coming around a turn. He worked out at Saratoga July 29th and August 2nd. His next start will be the Woodward Stakes at Saratoga on September 5th.

Career: 16 Starts 6-1-2-2, Win Pct: 37.5%, Top 3 Pct: 56.25%, Top 4%: 68.8%
Fastest 1 1/8 Mile Time: 1:48.51 – 4/11/15 (2014 Empire Classic)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:01.55 – 7/4/15 (2015 Suburban Handicap)
Best Finish in a 1 1/4 Mile Grade 1 Stakes Race: N/A

7) Hoppertunity  – Not likely a Breeders’ Cup Classic winner but a horse who is consistent enough to finish in the money. In 9 career graded stakes race starts, he has never finished below 4th. In 2015, he has a win in the San Pasqual Stakes, two third place finishes in the San Antonio and Stephen Foster Handicap, lost to Hard Aces in the Gold Cup at Santa Anita by a nose and a fourth place finish in the San Diego Handicap. He did 5 furlongs in one minute flat at Saratoga on August 7th. His next start will be the TVG Pacific Classic on August 22nd.

Career: 12 Starts 4-3-2-2, Win Pct: 33.3%, Top 3 Pct: 83.3%, Top 4 Pct: 91.7%
Fastest 1 1/8 Mile Time: 1:48.36 (calculated) – 4/5/14 (2014 Santa Anita Derby)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:02.47 (calculated) – 6/27/14 (2015 Gold Cup)
Best Finish in a 1 1/4 Mile Grade 1 Stakes Race: 2nd – 2015 Gold Cup

8) Hard Aces*  –  He has qualified for the Breeders’ Cup Classic with his win in the Gold Cup at Santa Anita. For 2015, he has two wins, a 3rd, a 4th and a 6th place finish. One wonders if his big win in the Gold Cup was more a byproduct of Victor Espinoza’s jockeying. His recent workouts at Del Mar have been good, most notably a 1:26.60 in 7 furlongs. His next start appears to be at Del Mar in the TVG Pacific Classic on August 22nd.

Career: 23 starts 6-3-7-2, Win Pct: 26.1%, Top 3 Pct: 69.6%, Top 4 Pct: 78.2%
Fastest 1 1/8 Mile Time: 1:48.37 (calculated) – 5/30/15 (2015 Californian Stakes)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:02.46 – 6/27/14 (2015 Gold Cup)
Best Finish in a 1 1/4 Mile Grade 1 Stakes Race: 1st – 2015 Gold Cup

9) Dortmund – He finished 3rd in the Kentucky Derby and 4th in the Preakness Stakes. But remember that he has won 6 races out of 8 starts. Another Bob Baffert-trained horse that I expect to improve as I don’t think we have seen the best from him yet. However, he suffered bruised ribs in a gate mishap last week and his next start that was pegged to be the TVG Pacific Classic at Del Mar on August 22nd, may be questionable.

Career: 8 Starts 6-0-1-1, Win Pct: 75%, Top 3 Pct: 87.5%, Top 4 Pct: 100%
Fastest 1 1/8 Mile Time: 1:48.73 – 4/4/15 (2015 Santa Anita Derby)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:03.50 (calculated) – 5/2/15 (2015 Kentucky Derby)
Best Finish in a 1 1/4 Mile Grade 1 Stakes Race: 3rd – 2015 Kentucky Derby

10) Frosted – He finished 2nd behind Texas Red in the Jim Dandy Stakes but he likes distance (his sire was Tapit). He finished 4th in the Kentucky Derby and 2nd in the Belmont Stakes–a quality horse who has never finished below 4th place in 10 career starts. His next start will be the Travers Stakes on August 29th.

Career: 10 Starts 2-6-0-2, Win Pct: 20%, Top 3 Pct: 80%, Top 4 Pct: 100%
Fastest 1 1/8 Mile Time: 1:48.85 (calculated) – 8/1/15 (2015 Jim Dandy Stakes)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:03.54 (calculated) – 5/2/2015 (2015 Kentucky Derby)
Best Finish in a 1 1/4 Mile Grade 1 Stakes Race: 4th – 2015 Kentucky Derby

11) Bayern – He stays in my top 14 due to past performance. He was last year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic winner. In 2015, he had two consecutive last place finishes (6th, 10th) in two starts before his 3rd place finish in the San Diego Handicap last month. It is blatantly obvious that he is not the horse he was in 2014 but he did improve in his last start. He worked out at Del Mar on August 5th and turned 6 furlongs in 1:11.60. That was an improvement over his last workout (1:13.20) at the same 6 furlong distance at Del Mar. His next start will be the TVG Pacific Classic on August 22nd, which will be very telling about his future.

Career: 13 Starts 6-1-2-0, Win Pct: 46.2%, Top 3 Pct: 69.2%, Top 4 Pct: 69.2%
Fastest 1 1/8 Mile Time: 1:46.96 – 9/20/14 (2014 Pennsylvania Derby)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 1:59.88 – 11/1/14 (2014 Breeders’ Cup Classic)
Best Finish in a 1 1/4 Mile Grade 1 Stakes Race: 1st – 2014 Breeders’ Cup Classic

12) Keen Ice – An improving horse who finished 7th in the Kentucky Derby, 3rd in the Belmont Stakes and 2nd behind American Pharoah in the Haskell Invitational with a 105 Beyer Speed Figure. His next start after the Haskell is not confirmed but expected to be the Travers Stakes August 29th.

Career: 10 Starts 1-1-3-2, Win Pct: 10%, Top 3 Pct: 50%, Top 4 Pct: 70%
Fastest 1 1/8 Mile Time: 1:48.31 (calculated) – 8/2/15 (2015 Haskell Invitational)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:03.02 – 5/2/15 (2015 Kentucky Derby)
Best Finish in a 1 1/4 Mile Grade 1 Stakes Race: 7th – 2015 Kentucky Derby

13) Texas Red – He earned a 105 Beyer Speed Figure with his win in the Jim Dandy Stakes. He won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile as a two year old and was my early Kentucky Derby favorite before his injury. He appears to be back on track heading down the stretch. His next start is expected to be the Travers Stakes August 29th.

Career: 8 Starts 3-3-1-1, Win Pct: 37.5%, Top 3 Pct: 75%, Top 4 Pct: 100%
Fastest 1 1/8 Mile Time: 1:48.77 – 8/1/2015 (2015 Jim Dandy Stakes)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: N/A

14) Noble Bird* – I am not sure what happened to Noble Bird in the Whitney Handicap where he finished dead last. Injury? No word yet. He has qualified for the Breeders’ Cup Classic with his win in the Stephen Foster Handicap where he beat Lea while registering a 108 Beyer Speed Figure. His only downside is that he has never raced longer than 1 1/8 mile. His next start is uncertain.

Career: 11 Starts 4-3-0-1, Win Pct: 36.4%, Top 3 Pct:63.6%, Top 4 Pct: 73.7%
Fastest 1 1/8 Mile Time: 1:47.94 – 6/13/15 (2015 Stephen Foster Handicap)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: N/A

* – indicates horses who have already qualified for the Breeders’ Cup Classic

Below is a ranking by Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Times for 2015 Breeders’ Cup Contenders.  I used times at the 1 & 1/4 mile mark from the 2015 Belmont Stakes for American Pharoah and Frosted since these times were better than their times in the Kentucky Derby. For calculated times of non-winning horses, I used the official race time of the winner and the following to compute an estimated time [One length is equal to 0.16 seconds, three-quarters of a length is equal to 0.12, a half-length equals 0.08, a neck is equal to 0.04, a head is equal to 0.02 and a nose is 0.01].

1) Bayern –  1:59.88 – 11/1/14 (2014 Breeders’ Cup Classic)
2) Tonalist  – 2:00.69 (calculated) – 11/1/14 (2014 Breeders’ Cup Classic)
3) Palace Malice  – 2:00.78 (calculated) – 9/28/13 (2013 Jockey Club Gold Cup)
4) Catch A Flight   – 2:01.37 (calculated) – 3/7/15 (2015 Santa Anita Handicap)
5) Effinex  – 2:01.55 – 7/4/15 (2015 Suburban Handicap)
6) American Pharoah  –  2:02.37 – 6/5/15 (2015 Belmont Stakes)
7) Hard Aces  –  2:02.46 – 6/27/14 (2015 Gold Cup)
8) Hoppertunity  –  2:02.47 (calculated) – 6/27/14 (2015 Gold Cup)
9) Frosted  –   2:02.69 (calculated) – 6/5/2015 (2015 Belmont Stakes)
10) Dortmund –  2:03.50 (calculated) – 5/2/15 (2015 Kentucky Derby)

Below is a ranking by Fastest 1 1/8 Mile Times for 2015 Breeders’ Cup Contenders. American Pharoah coasted home in the Haskell Invitational. Had Victor Espinoza raced him hard to the wire, his final time probably would have eclipsed the Haskell race record of 1:47.00.

1) Bayern – 1:46.96 – 9/20/14 (2014 Pennsylvania Derby)
2) Catch A Flight  – 1:47.73 – 5/30/14 (2015 Californian Stakes)
3) Honor Code* – 1:47.82 – 8/8/15 (2015 Whitney Handicap)
4) Liam’s Map – 1:47.86 (calculated) – 8/8/15 (2015 Whitney Handicap)
5) Noble Bird* – 1:47.94 – 6/13/15 (2015 Stephen Foster Handicap)
6) American Pharoah*  – 1:47.95 – 8/2/15 (2015 Haskell Invitational)
7) Tonalist  – 1:48.1 (calculated) – 8/8/15 (2015 Whitney Handicap)
8) Keen Ice – 1:48.31 (calculated) – 8/2/15 (2015 Haskell Invitational)
9) Hoppertunity  – 1:48.36 (calculated) – 4/5/14 (2014 Santa Anita Derby)
10) Hard Aces*  –  1:48.37 (calculated) – 5/30/15 (2015 Californian Stakes)
11) Effinex  – 1:48.51 – 4/11/15 (2014 Empire Classic)
12) Dortmund – 1:48.73 – 4/4/15 (2015 Santa Anita Derby)
13) Texas Red – 1:48.77 – 8/1/2015 (2015 Jim Dandy Stakes)
14) Frosted – 1:48.85 (calculated) – 8/1/15 (2015 Jim Dandy Stakes)

The remaining “Win and You’re In” Breeders’ Cup Challenge Races (Classic Division):

Aug. 22nd – The TVG Pacific Classic at Del Mar – 1 1/4 Mile – Purse: $1,000,000 – TVG
Sept. 26th – The Awesome Again Stakes at Santa Anita – 1 1/8 Mile – Purse: $250,000 – TVG
Oct. 3rd – Jockey Club Gold Cup Invitational at Belmont – 1 1/4 Mile – Purse: $1,000,000 – NBC

Other Notable Classic Division Races:

Aug. 29th – The Travers Stakes at Saratoga – 1 1/4 Mile – Purse: $1,000,000 – NBC
Sept. 5th – The Woodward Stakes at Saratoga – 1 1/8 Mile – Purse: $600,000 –  NBCSN

–Michael

Honor Code – A New Star is Born and Rival to American Pharoah

Posted on by Michael J. Cox

Honor Code Hero1

Honor Code edges out Liam’s Map by a neck in the Whitney Handicap – Photo: NYRA

Honor Code answered any questions that I had about him yesterday with his outstanding come-from-behind win in the Whitney Handicap (video shown below). The questions marks I had about this blazingly fast horse: Although he has the pedigree for distance, we hadn’t seen him accomplish much in two-turn races this year. He hadn’t competed in a race longer than 1 1/16th mile since his 2 year-old campaign when he won the Remsen Stakes in 2013. Folks, Honor Code is THE REAL DEAL. He is a huge threat to American Pharoah’s bid of capturing horse racing’s Grand Slam (The Triple Crown and Breeders Cup Classic win). Why? Consider this:

  1. Honor Code’s Whitney Handicap winning time of 1:47.82 compared to American Pharoah’s Haskell Invitational winning time of 1:47.95 just a week apart at the same 1 1/8th mile distance. Different track but Honor Code received a better Beyer Speed figure (113) for his run than American Pharoah (109). Granted, American Pharoah coasted in on his win but Honor Code’s closer style will make him a huge threat no matter what post position he draws in the 1 1/4 mile Breeders’ Cup Classic. He drew the dreaded rail in a talent laden Whitney HC and won.
  2. Honor Code now has two of the top three Beyer Speed Figures this year: 112 in the Met Mile and 113 in yesterday’s Whitney Handicap. He is the fastest horse in North America right now.

The Breeders’ Cup Classic in October is shaping up to be a showdown of epic proportions: American Pharoah vs Honor Code. I will post my updated Breeders’ Cup Classic Rankings by the end of the week but here is your future Breeders’ Cup Classic Boxed Trifecta. Palace Malice races today at Saratoga at the same 1 1/8th mile distance so that is why I am holding off on an updated rankings list.

1) American Pharoah  – He confirmed his #1 ranking with his performance in the Haskell Invitational with a sizzling 109 Beyer Speed Figure. He now has reeled off eight straight wins. He currently is ranked #2 in Longines World’s Best Racehorse rankings and ranked #1 in the most recent NTRA’s Top Thoroughbred poll. His next start after the Haskell has not been confirmed but expected to be the Travers Stakes August 29th.

Career: 9 Starts 8-0-0-0, Win Pct: 88.9%, Top 3 Pct: 88.9%, Top 4 Pct: 88.9%
Fastest 1 1/8 Mile Time: 1:47.95 – 8/2/15 (2015 Haskell Invitational)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:03.02 – 5/2/15 (2015 Kentucky Derby)
Best Finish in a 1 1/4 Mile Grade 1 Stakes Race: 1st – 2015 Kentucky Derby

2) Honor Code – The Met-Mile winner with a blazing 112 Beyer Speed Figure. He produced another 113 Beyer Speed Figure in the Whitney Handicap. This makes his 5th place finish in the Alysheba Stakes puzzling. He has a nice pedigree, the son of A.P. Indy and the grandson of Seattle Slew. He has yet to race longer than 1 1/8th mile and that is why I can’t rank him ahead of American Pharoah despite his impressive speed figures. But I am not concerned as I think he will fare even better in a 1 1/4 mile race–he is bred for distance. His next start could be the Jockey Gold Cup race October 3rd at Belmont Park.

Career: 9 Starts 6-2-0-0, Win Pct: 66.7%, Top 3 Pct: 88.9%, Top 4 Pct: 88.9%
Fastest 1 1/8 Mile Time: 1:47.82 – 8/8/15 (2015 Whitney Handicap)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: N/A

3) Tonalist  – Last year’s Belmont Stakes and Jockey Club Gold Cup winner. For 2015, he has one win in the Westchester Stakes, two 2nd places finishes (Met Mile and Suburban Handicap) and a 3rd place finish (Whitney Handicap). His third place finish in the Whitney Handicap produced a 110 Beyer Speed Figure. He produced a 108 Beyer in the Suburban Handicap and a 111 Beyer in the Met Mile. He finished 5th in the Breeders’ Cup Classic last year.

Career: 13 Starts 5-4-2-1, Win Pct: 38.5%, Top 3 Pct: 84.6%, Top 4 Pct: 92.3%
Fastest 1 1/8 Mile Time: 1:48.1 (calculated) – 8/8/15 (2015 Whitney Handicap)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:00.69 (calculated)- 11/1/14 (2014 Breeders’ Cup Classic)
Best Finish in a 1 1/4 Mile Grade 1 Stakes Race: 1st – 2014 Jockey Club Gold Cup

The remaining “Win and You’re In” Breeders’ Cup Classic Races:

Aug. 22nd – The TVG Pacific Classic at Del Mar – 1 1/4 Mile – Purse: $1,000,000 – TVG
Sept. 26th – The Awesome Again Stakes at Santa Anita – 1 1/8 Mile – Purse: $250,000 – TVG
Oct. 3rd – Jockey Club Gold Cup Invitational at Belmont – 1 1/4 Mile – Purse: $1,000,000 – NBC

Other Notable Classic Division Races:

Aug. 29th – The Travers Stakes at Saratoga – 1 1/4 Mile – Purse: $1,000,000 – NBC
Sept. 5th – The Woodward Stakes at Saratoga – 1 1/8 Mile – Purse: $600,000 –  NBCSN

–Michael

The 2015 Whitney Handicap Preview – A Can’t Miss Race!

Posted on by Michael J. Cox

Honor Code – The Race Favorite for The Whitney

Another “Win and You’re In” the Breeders’ Cup Classic race is scheduled this Saturday August 8th with the Whitney Handicap at Saratoga. This 1 1/8 Mile race carries a purse of $1,500,000 and will be broadcast on NBC. Post time will be roughly 4:45PM CST.

This is a very talented field and this will be a VERY GOOD RACE. As Todd Pletcher said: “I don’t know if I remember a Whitney with 10 horses being this deep. This is a pretty stellar group. You bring seven Grade I winners together … and who knows? After the race there might be eight.”

Therefore, I have no specific betting advice but I do think that Tonalist and Lea should be in your Superfectas. You may consider boxed Superfectas with 5 or 6 horses (Tonalist, Lea, Honor Code, Noble Bird, Coach Inge and Moreno). I see this race as more of a jockey’s race. Honor Code is the Morning Line favorite and is blazingly fast over a mile. Tonalist is the best horse in this field but he is better suited for distance (1 1/4 & 1 1/2 mile races). However, his jockey will be John Velazquez who has won 4 Whitney Handicaps.

V.E. Day won the prestigious Travers Stakes last year at Saratoga. Lea has proven to be the fastest horse at this distance. Liam’s Map has won 4 straight races. Noble Bird has already qualified for the Breeders’ Cup Classic with his win in the Stephen Foster Handicap in June. Wicked Strong beat Tonalist in last year’s Jim Dandy Stakes on this track at the same 1 1/8 mile distance. Moreno, at 12/1 Odds, is the reigning Whitney champion.

Below are the post positions, jockeys, trainers and Morning Line Odds:

1. Honor Code  – Javier Castellano -.Shug McGaughey – 3/1
2. Tonalist – John Velazquez – Christophe Clement – 4/1
3. Noble Bird – Shaun Bridgmohan – Mark Casse – 5/1
4. Liam’s Map – Mike Smith – Todd Pletcher – 6/1
5. Moreno – Cornelio Velasquez – Eric Guillot – 12/1
6. V.E. Day – Junior Alvarado – Jimmy Jerkens – 8/1
7. Lea – Joel Rosario – Bill Mott – 9/2
8. Coach Inge – Irad Ortiz Jr – Todd Pletcher – 15/1
9. Wicked Strong – Luis Saez – Jimmy Jerkens – 20/1
10. Normandy Invasion – Larry Jones – Kerwin Clark – 30/1

The remaining “Win and You’re In” Breeders’ Cup Classic Races:

Aug. 22nd – The TVG Pacific Classic at Del Mar – 1 1/4 Mile – Purse: $1,000,000 – TVG
Sept. 26th – The Awesome Again Stakes at Santa Anita – 1 1/8 Mile – Purse: $250,000 – TVG
Oct. 3rd – Jockey Club Gold Cup Invitational at Belmont – 1 1/4 Mile – Purse: $1,000,000 – NBC

Other Notable Classic Division Races:

Aug. 29th – The Travers Stakes at Saratoga – 1 1/4 Mile – Purse: $1,000,000 – NBC
Sept. 5th – The Woodward Stakes at Saratoga – 1 1/8 Mile – Purse: $600,000 –  NBCSN

–Michael

Updated 2015 Breeders’ Cup Contender Rankings

Posted on by Michael J. Cox

This past weekend, the Jim Dandy Stakes and Haskell Invitational gave us the following information: American Pharoah showed no rustiness coming off a layoff. And Texas Red is back, edging out Frosted.

I still like Frosted over Texas Red in 1 1/4 mile race. In the Haskell Invitational, American Pharoah continued to prove his dominance making it 8 straight wins in a row. I loved the performance of 2nd-place finisher, Keen Ice, who came off the pace like gangbusters. This will bode well in a 1 1/4 mile race. Keen Ice is an improving horse. I don’t see him as one who can beat American Pharoah but one that could finish in the money in the Breeders’ Cup Classic if he makes it into the field.

So here’s my updated Breeders’ Cup Classic Rankings. Dropping out of my Top 14 are Constitution and Honor Code. Two really good horses but we will see how they fare in their next start.

1) American Pharoah*  – He confirmed his #1 ranking with his performance in the Haskell Invitational with a sizzling 109 Beyer Speed Figure. He now has reeled off 8 straight wins. He currently is ranked #2 in Longines World’s Best Racehorse rankings and ranked #1 in the most recent NTRA’s Top Thoroughbred poll. And much deserved as he is the first Triple Crown Winner in 37 years. His next start after the Haskell has not been confirmed but expected to be the Travers Stakes August 29th.

Career: 9 Starts 8-0-0-0, Win Pct: 88.9%, Top 3 Pct: 88.9%, Top 4 Pct: 88.9%
Fastest 1 1/8 Mile Time: 1:47.95 – 8/2/15 (2015 Haskell Invitational)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:03.02 – 5/2/15 (2015 Kentucky Derby)
Best Finish in a 1 1/4 Mile Grade 1 Stakes Race: 1st – 2015 Kentucky Derby

2) Tonalist  – Last year’s Belmont Stakes and Jockey Club Gold Cup winner. For 2015, he has one win in the Westchester Stakes and now two 2nd places finishes (Met Mile and Suburban Handicap). He finished 5th in the Breeders’ Cup Classic last year. His 108 Beyer in the Suburban Handicap ranks as the third highest speed figure this year for races 1 1/4 mile. His next start will be the Whitney Handicap this weekend on August 8th.

Career: 12 Starts 5-4-1-1, Win Pct: 41.7%, Top 3 Pct: 83.3%, Top 4 Pct: 91.7%
Fastest 1 1/8 Mile Time: 1:49.52 (calculated) – 7/26/14 (2014 Jim Dandy Stakes)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:00.69 (calculated)- 11/1/14 (2014 Breeders’ Cup Classic)
Best Finish in a 1 1/4 Mile Grade 1 Stakes Race: 1st – 2014 Jockey Club Gold Cup

3) Catch A Flight  – The Argentinian horse has never finished below 3rd in his North American career thus far, so that is where I am placing him in my rankings. He has won 10 of 17 career starts, 4 out of 7 in North America. He is ridden by Hall of Fame jockey Gary Stevens and appears to be an upcoming horse who is getting better as his San Diego Handicap performance indicates. He finished 3rd in the Santa Anita Handicap in March behind Shared Belief and Moreno, but beat Moreno in the Californian Stakes on May 30th (106 Beyer Speed Figure). He finished third behind Hard Aces and Hoppertunity in the Gold Cup at Santa Anita June 27th, but beat Hoppertunity in the San Diego Handicap. His next start is confirmed as the TVG Pacific Classic at Del Mar on August 22nd.

Career (North America) : 7 Starts 4-0-3-0, Win Pct: 57.1%, Top 3 Pct: 100%, Top 4 Pct: 100%
Fastest 1 1/8 Mile Time: 1:47.73 – 5/30/14 (2015 Californian Stakes)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:01.37 (calculated) – 3/7/15 (2015 Santa Anita Handicap)
Best Finish in a 1 1/4 Mile Grade 1 Stakes Race: 3rd – 2015 Santa Anita Handicap

4) Lea – In 2015, he has a win (Hal’s Hope Stakes), two second place finishes (Donn Handicap and Stephen Foster Handicap) and a third place finish. The third place finish was in the Dubai World Cup where he finished behind Prince Bishop and California Chrome. He has two impressive Beyer Speed Figures of 110 in the Hal’s Hope Stakes and 108 in the Stephen Foster Handicap. He is working out well at Saratoga. His next start will be the Whitney Handicap on August 8th.

Career: 16 Starts 7-4-3-1, Win Pct: 43.8%, Top 3 Pct: 87.5%, Top 4 Pct: 93.8%
Fastest 1 1/8 Mile Time: 1:46.86 – 2/9/14 (2014 Donn Handicap)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:03.88 (calculated)- 3/28/15 (2015 Dubai World Cup)
Best Finish in a 1 1/4 Mile Grade 1 Stakes Race: 3rd – 2015 Dubai World Cup

5) Palace Malice  – He finished 3rd in his only start in 2015 in the 6 furlong Diablo Stakes at Belmont on May 10th. He won four out of five races last year, most notably the Metropolitan Handicap. In 2013, he won the Belmont Stakes and Jim Dandy Stakes and finished 6th in the Breeders’ Cup Classic. Considered one of the best older horses last year. He was supposed to be entered in the Whitney Handicap but instead will be entered into Sunday’s $100,000 Alydar Stakes at Saratoga.

Career: 18 Starts 7-4-2-1, Win Pct: 38.9%, Top 3 Pct: 72.2%, Top 4 Pct: 77.8%
Fastest 1 1/8 Mile Time: 1:47.37 – 7/27/13 (2013 Jim Dandy Stakes)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:00.78 (calculated)- 9/28/13 (2013 Jockey Club Gold Cup)
Best Finish in a 1 1/4 Mile Grade 1 Stakes Race: 2nd – 2013 Jockey Club Gold Cup

6) Effinex  – The Suburban Handicap winner, he has now produced two of the top four Beyer Speed Figures this year for races 1 1/4th mile or longer: 107 Beyer at Aqueduct on April 25th and his 108 Beyer on July 4th at Belmont. He could be peaking and maturing at the right time. He worked out at Saratoga July 29th. His next start will be the Woodward Stakes at Saratoga on September 5th.

Career: 16 Starts 6-1-2-2, Win Pct: 37.5%, Top 3 Pct: 56.25%, Top 4%: 68.8%
Fastest 1 1/8 Mile Time: 1:48.51 – 4/11/15 (2014 Empire Classic)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:01.55 – 7/4/15 (2015 Suburban Handicap)
Best Finish in a 1 1/4 Mile Grade 1 Stakes Race: N/A

7) Dortmund – He finished 3rd in the Kentucky Derby and 4th in the Preakness Stakes. But remember that he has won 6 races out of 8 starts. Another Bob Baffert-trained horse that I expect to improve as I don’t think we have seen the best from him yet. His next start appears to be the TVG Pacific Classic at Del Mar on August 22nd.

Career: 8 Starts 6-0-1-1, Win Pct: 75%, Top 3 Pct: 87.5%, Top 4 Pct: 100%
Fastest 1 1/8 Mile Time: 1:48.73 – 4/4/15 (2015 Santa Anita Derby)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:03.50 (calculated) – 5/2/15 (2015 Kentucky Derby)
Best Finish in a 1 1/4 Mile Grade 1 Stakes Race: 3rd – 2015 Kentucky Derby

8) Hoppertunity  – In 2015, he has a win in the San Pasqual Stakes, two third place finishes in the San Antonio and Stephen Foster Handicap, lost to Hard Aces in the Gold Cup at Santa Anita by a nose and a fourth place finish in the San Diego Handicap. He is consistent and has never finished below 5th in 12 career starts. His next start will be the TVG Pacific Classic on August 22nd.

Career: 12 Starts 4-3-2-2, Win Pct: 33.3%, Top 3 Pct: 83.3%, Top 4 Pct: 91.7%
Fastest 1 1/8 Mile Time: 1:48.36 (calculated) – 4/5/14 (2014 Santa Anita Derby)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:02.47 (calculated) – 6/27/14 (2015 Gold Cup)
Best Finish in a 1 1/4 Mile Grade 1 Stakes Race: 2nd – 2015 Gold Cup

9) Hard Aces*  –  He has qualified for the Breeders’ Cup Classic with his win in the Gold Cup at Santa Anita. For 2015, he has two wins, a 3rd, a 4th and a 6th place finish. One wonders if his big win in the Gold Cup was more a byproduct of Victor Espinoza’s jockeying. His recent workouts at Del Mar have been very good. His next start appears to be at Del Mar in the TVG Pacific Classic on August 22nd.

Career: 23 starts 6-3-7-2, Win Pct: 26.1%, Top 3 Pct: 69.6%, Top 4 Pct: 78.2%
Fastest 1 1/8 Mile Time: 1:48.37 (calculated) – 5/30/15 (2015 Californian Stakes)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:02.46 – 6/27/14 (2015 Gold Cup)
Best Finish in a 1 1/4 Mile Grade 1 Stakes Race: 1st – 2015 Gold Cup

10) Frosted – He finished 2nd behind Texas Red in the Jim Dandy Stakes but he likes distance (his sire was Tapit). He finished 4th in the Kentucky Derby and 2nd in the Belmont Stakes. His next start will be the Travers Stakes on August 29th.

Career: 10 Starts 2-6-0-2, Win Pct: 20%, Top 3 Pct: 80%, Top 4 Pct: 100%
Fastest 1 1/8 Mile Time: 1:48.85 (calculated) – 8/1/15 (2015 Jim Dandy Stakes)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:03.54 (calculated) – 5/2/2015 (2015 Kentucky Derby)
Best Finish in a 1 1/4 Mile Grade 1 Stakes Race: 4th – 2015 Kentucky Derby

11) Bayern – Last year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic winner. He has had two consecutive last place finishes (6th, 10th) in two starts before his 3rd place finish in the San Diego Handicap. He is not the horse he was in 2014 but he did improve in his last start. His next start will be the TVG Pacific Classic on August 22nd.

Career: 13 Starts 6-1-2-0, Win Pct: 46.2%, Top 3 Pct: 69.2%, Top 4 Pct: 69.2%
Fastest 1 1/8 Mile Time: 1:46.96 – 9/20/14 (2014 Pennsylvania Derby)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 1:59.88 – 11/1/14 (2014 Breeders’ Cup Classic)
Best Finish in a 1 1/4 Mile Grade 1 Stakes Race: 1st – 2014 Breeders’ Cup Classic

12) Noble Bird* – He has qualified for the Breeders’ Cup Classic with his win in the Stephen Foster Handicap where he beat Lea while registering a 108 Beyer Speed Figure. He has won three out of his last four races. His only downside is that he has never raced longer than 1 1/8 mile. His next start will be the Whitney Handicap August 8th.

Career: 10 Starts 4-3-0-1, Win Pct: 40%, Top 3 Pct: 70%, Top 4 Pct: 80%
Fastest 1 1/8 Mile Time: 1:47.94 – 6/13/15 (2015 Stephen Foster Handicap)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: N/A

13) Keen Ice – An improving horse who finished 7th in the Kentucky Derby, 3rd in the Belmont Stakes and 2nd behind American Pharoah in the Haskell Invitational with a 105 Beyer Speed Figure His next start after the Haskell is not confirmed but expected to be the Travers Stakes August 29th.

Career: 10 Starts 1-1-3-2, Win Pct: 10%, Top 3 Pct: 50%, Top 4 Pct: 70%
Fastest 1 1/8 Mile Time: 1:48.31 (calculated) – 8/2/15 (2015 Haskell Invitational)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:03.02 – 5/2/15 (2015 Kentucky Derby)
Best Finish in a 1 1/4 Mile Grade 1 Stakes Race: 7th – 2015 Kentucky Derby

14) Texas Red – He earned a 105 Beyer Speed Figure with his win in the Jim Dandy Stakes. He was my early Kentucky Derby favorite before his injury. He appears to be back on track heading down the stretch. Could he be this year’s version of Shared Belief? Both horses won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile as two year olds but missed the Kentucky Derby due to injury.

Career: 8 Starts 3-3-1-1, Win Pct: 37.5%, Top 3 Pct: 75%, Top 4 Pct: 100%
Fastest 1 1/8 Mile Time: 1:48.77 – 8/1/2015 (2015 Jim Dandy Stakes)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: N/A

* – indicates horses who have already qualified for the Breeders’ Cup Classic

Below is a ranking by Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Times.  I used times at the 1 & 1/4 mile mark from the 2015 Belmont Stakes for American Pharoah and Frosted since these times were better than their times in the Kentucky Derby. For calculated times of non-winning horses, I used the official race time of the winner and the following to compute an estimated time [One length is equal to 0.16 seconds, three-quarters of a length is equal to 0.12, a half-length equals 0.08, a neck is equal to 0.04, a head is equal to 0.02 and a nose is 0.01].

1) Bayern –  1:59.88 – 11/1/14 (2014 Breeders’ Cup Classic)
2) Tonalist  – 2:00.69 (calculated) – 11/1/14 (2014 Breeders’ Cup Classic)
3) Palace Malice  – 2:00.78 (calculated) – 9/28/13 (2013 Jockey Club Gold Cup)
4) Catch A Flight   – 2:01.37 (calculated) – 3/7/15 (2015 Santa Anita Handicap)
5) Effinex  – 2:01.55 – 7/4/15 (2015 Suburban Handicap)
6) American Pharoah  –  2:02.37 – 6/5/15 (2015 Belmont Stakes)
7) Hard Aces  –  2:02.46 – 6/27/14 (2015 Gold Cup)
8) Hoppertunity  –  2:02.47 (calculated) – 6/27/14 (2015 Gold Cup)
9) Frosted  –   2:02.69 (calculated) – 6/5/2015 (2015 Belmont Stakes)
10) Dortmund –  2:03.50 (calculated) – 5/2/15 (2015 Kentucky Derby)
11) Lea –  2:03.88 (calculated) – 3/28/15 (2015 Dubai World Cup)

The remaining “Win and You’re In” Breeders’ Cup Classic Races:

Aug. 8th – The Whitney Handicap at Saratoga – 1 1/8 Mile – Purse: $1,500,000 – NBC
Aug. 22nd – The TVG Pacific Classic at Del Mar – 1 1/4 Mile – Purse: $1,000,000 – TVG
Sept. 26th – The Awesome Again Stakes at Santa Anita – 1 1/8 Mile – Purse: $250,000 – TVG
Oct. 3rd – Jockey Club Gold Cup Invitational at Belmont – 1 1/4 Mile – Purse: $1,000,000 – NBC

Other Notable Classic Division Races:

Aug. 29th – The Travers Stakes at Saratoga – 1 1/4 Mile – Purse: $1,000,000 – NBC
Sept. 5th – The Woodward Stakes at Saratoga – 1 1/8 Mile – Purse: $600,000 –  NBCSN

–Michael