Pennsylvania Derby Preview

Scott Serio / AP Images

This Saturday September 19th at PARX is the Pennsylvania Derby. This 1 1/8 mile race for 3-year-olds carries a $1,000,000 purse and always attracts some top talent. Last year’s winner Bayern beat California Chrome and went on to win the Breeders’ Cup Classic. The 2013’s winner, Will Take Charge, went on to win American Champion Three-Year-Old honors.

Post time is 4:45 PM CST. Below are post-positions and odds.

Post Position/Weight/Jockey/Odds

1. War Story (117) Parker 20-1
2. Island Town (122) Hernandez Jr. 10-1
3. Frosted (124) Rosario 5-2 
4. Iron Fist (117) Smith 8-1
5. Madefromlucky (122) Velazquez 4-1  
6. Gimme Da Lute (122) Garcia 5-1    Scratched
7. Tommy Macho (117) Castellano 10-1
8. Battle Midway (117) Gryder 20-1
9. Upstart (122) Ortiz 9-2 
10. Mr. Z (119) Saez 10-1

Overall, my feeling was, before Gimmedalute was scratched, that race will come down to a battle between Frosted and Gimme Da Lute. I had previously felt that Frosted was not a great horse at 1 1/8 mile distances and was better suited for races 1 1/4 mile or greater. However, Frosted proved to me in the Travers Stakes that he could hang with American Pharoah through 9 furlongs.

Upstart and Madefromlucky are two very good horses that are capable of winning this race. I have no Superfecta recommendations but I would suggest a $25 Exacta keying Frosted (3) on top to win with two horses (5-Madefromlucky, 9-Upstart) because which Madefromlucky will show up? The one who won the Peter Pan Stakes with a time of 1:48.36? Or the one who won his last race, the West Virginia Derby with a pedestrian time of 1:51.40? Both of these races were 1 1/8 mile. The $25 exacta bet keying Frosted to win with 2 horses would cost $50.

–Michael

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