Super Saturday at Belmont Previews

Another Super Saturday at Belmont Park with two big “Win and You’re In” Breeders Cup races. Plus the Kelso Handicap that features Honor Code who is ranked #3 in my 2015 Breeders’ Cup Contenders:

UPDATE 10/3/15 2PM: Wet sloppy track today at Belmont. Throw out all handicapping advice. This should favor pace-setters. I am liking Coach Inge more and more in the Jockey Club Gold Cup race.

1) Kelso Handicap. Belmont Race #5. Post time: 1:33PM CST – this isn’t a “Win and You’re In’ race but high profile with race with Honor Code in the field.

Post Position/Horse/Jockey/Trainer/M/L Odds
1. Appealing Tale – Talamo/Miller – 6/1
2. Honor Code – Castellano/McGaughey – 3/5
3. Scarly Charly – Oriz/Hushion – 20/1
4. Tamarkuz – Ortiz/McLaughlin – 8/1
5. Red Vine – Rosario/Clement – 5/1
6. Mylute – Velazquez/Pletcher – 12/1
7.  Matterhorn – Bravo/Pletcher – 15/1

I like a $25 straight 2-5 Exacta (Honor Code-Red Vine). Honor Code is going to wire this field.

2) The Champagne Stakes (1 1/16 Mile). Belmont Race #8. Post time: 3:18PM CST. This race for 2 year-olds that guarantees entry into the Breeders Cup Juvenile (Sentient Jet)

Post Position/Horse/Jockey/Trainer/M/L Odds
1. Magna Light – Ortiz/Rodriguez – 6/1
2. Greenpointcrusader – Bravo/Schettino – 5/1
3. Ready Dancer – Velazquez/Pletcher – 5/1
4. Sail Ahoy – Rosario/McGaughey – 12/1
5. Ralis – Castellano/O’Neill – 3/1
6. Rafting – Ortiz/Motion – 8/1
7. Tale of S’avall – Velasquez/Tagg 7/2
8. Sunny Ridge – Alvarado/Servis – 20/1
9. Portfolio Manager – Franco/Brown – 12/1

Doug O’Neill’s Ralis is the best horse in this field but he is not as consistent as his stable mate Nyquist. I would only make a Place bet on Ralis but if you are feeling aggressive, I do *think* he will win. With 2 year-olds, they can be unpredictable and there could be a new star emerge in this race.

3) The Jockey Club Gold Cup (1 1/4 Mile). Belmont Race #10. Post time: 4:28PM CST. This guarantees entry into the Breeders’ Cup Classic that has four of my top 14 Breeders’ Cup Classic Contenders: #5 Tonalist, #8 Effinex, #9 Coach Inge, #14 Wicked Strong. As well as the Todd Pletcher-trained Constitution who has been in my Top 14 in the past.

Post Position/Horse/Jockey/Trainer/M/L Odds
1. Wicked Strong – Rosario/Jerkens – 6/1
2. Coach Inge – Ortiz/Pletcher – 5/1
3. Constitution – Castellano/Pletcher- 3/1
4. Effinex – Alvarado/Jerkens- 6/1
5. Looks to Spare – Parker/Dipima – 30/1
6. Tonalist – Velazquez/Clement – 6/5

In a six horse field, Trifectas and Superfectas won’t pay out much unless you make bigger bets. The only way to make money on this one is a large Exacta bet. I like a $25 Exacta 2 over 4,6 (Tonalist over Coach Inge and Effinex) which would cost $50. If you are willing to potentially lose $100, make it a $50 Exacta bet. Coach Inge is my potential upset favorite here. My prediction: Tonalist, Coach Inge, Effinex, Wicked Strong, Constitution and Looks to Spare.

–Michael

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