Black Friday Special-Effinex & Keen Ice duel in the Clark Handicap. Plus 2016 Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool #1

 

Updated: 11/28/15 11:30AM CST

If you have been suffering from horse racing withdrawal after the Breeders’ Cup World Championships, then you will have a lot to be thankful for this Thanksgiving Holiday weekend as there are several intriguing races for your viewing pleasure.

On tap for Black Friday will be one of the oldest horse races in North America (1875)–The Clark Handicap at Churchill Downs–that will include Effinex, Keen Ice, Hoppertunity and Race Day. If Effinex wins, he makes a great case to win Champion Older Male of the Year.

Saturday at Aqueduct will have two interesting races, the Cigar Mile with entries Tonalist, Private Zone  and Red Vine. And the Remsen Stakes for 2 year-olds that has two of my top 10 2016 Kentucky Derby Favorties: Mohaymen and Gift Box.

At Del Mar, Dortmund is entered in the Native Diver Handicap and will be competing against the 5 year old Mare Yahilwa, Iron Fist who finished 2nd in the Penn Derby this past September behind Frosted and Imperative who finished 4th in this year’s Awesome Again Stakes.

Plus the 2016 Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool #1 kicks off this weekend.

I will update this for all of these races once post positions and Morning Line Odds are known.

The Clark Handicap (Race #11) at Churchill Downs
Friday Nov 27th. Post time: 4:35 PM CST. Purse: $500,000. Distance: 1 1/8 miles. TV: TVG

Post Position/Horse (weight)/Jockey/Trainer/ML Odds
1. Keen Ice (120) Lanerie/Romans – 3/1
2. Looks to Spare (113) Lebron/Umarov – 30/1
3. Mr. Z (114) Santana Jr./Lukas – 15/1
4. Frivolous (115) Court/Oliver – 15/1
5. Protonico (117) Leparoux/Pletcher – 8/1
6. Hoppertunity (121) Garcia/Baffert – 7/2
7. Shotgun Kowboy (113) Berry/Trout – 20/1
8. Effinex (122) Smith/Jerkens – 5/2
9. Race Day (122) Velazquez/Pletcher – 7/2

My prediction: Effinex can be temperamental but surprisingly finished 2nd in the Breeders’ Cup Classic. I am not sure 1 1/8th mile is his or Keen Ice’s best distance. So this is a tough race to handicap. Right now, I like a $10 straight Supefecta with 9-6-8-1 and a $5 Boxed Exacta with three horses 6-8-9 that would cost $30. That is $40 and all that I would plunk down on this race that will have more spectator value as race just to watch.

Note: Effinex won and $40 advice would have paid back $72.50.

Remsen Stakes (Race #5) at Aqueduct
Saturday Nov 28th. Post time: 12:50 PM CST. Purse: $300,000. Distance: 1 1/8 miles. TV: TVG

Post Position/Horse (weight)/Jockey/Trainer/ML Odds
1. Donegal Moon (116) Velazquez/Pletcher – 15/1
2. Sail Ahoy (116) Rosario/McGaughey – 6/1
3. Mohaymen (122) Alvarado/McLaughlin – 8/5
4. Flexibility (116) I.Ortiz/Brown – 3/1
5. Ravenheart (116) Carmouche/Abbott – 30/1
6. Gift Box (116) Castellano/Brown -4/1
7. Hunter O’Riley (116) L.Saez/Sharp – 15/1
8. Runaway King (116) G.Saez/Ice – 20/1
9. Marengo Road (116) J.Ortiz/Trombetta – 12/1

My prediction: 2 year-old races can be unpredictable. I never bet more than $50 on them unless it is a huge win bet that I feel confident about. So I would probably place a $15 Boxed Exacta 3-6 that would cost $30.

Cigar Mile Handicap (Race #9) at Aqueduct
Saturday Nov 28th. Post time: 2:50 PM CST. Purse: $500,000. Distance: 1 mile. TV: TVG

Post Position/Horse (weight)/Jockey/Trainer/ML Odds
1. Marking (116) J.Ortiz/McLaughlin – 15/1
2. Mshawish (116) Castellano/Pletcher – 10/1
3. Red Vine (118) Rosario/Clement – 8/1
4. Matrooth (116) I.Ortiz/Brown – 6/1
5. Tonalist (124) Velazquez/Clement – 2/1
6. Full of Mine (108) Rodriquez/Chatterpaul – 50/1
7. Private Zone (123) L.Saez/Sharp – 6/5

My Prediction: Another tough race to handicap. Tonalist appeared to tire down the stretch in the Breeders’ Cup Classic and he is better in distance races. Private Zone, last year’s Cigar Mile winner, is the horse to beat in this field once again.  Marking has been scratched so Superfectas are out of play. Not sure how much trifectas would pay out in a 6 horse field. So you might opt for a large Boxed Exacta with 3 horses (3,5,7).

Native Diver Stakes (Race #8) at Del Mar
Saturday Nov 28th. Post time: 6:00 PM CST. Purse: $150,000. Distance: 1 1/8 miles. TV: TVG

Post Position/Horse (weight)/Jockey/Trainer/ML Odds
1. Cat Burglar (118) Espinosa/Baffert -12/1
2. Majestic City (120) Puglisi/Baltas – 20/1
3. Dortmund (124) Stevens/Baffert – 6/5
4. Iron Fist (115) Smith/Hollendorfer – 2/1
5. Big Cazanova (120) Velazquez/Miller – 10/1
6. Yahilwa (117) Graham/Cassidy – 12/1
7. Imperative (120) L.Saez/Baltas – 4/1

My Prediction: Dortmund wins this one with ease. He will probably have 2/5 final odds. He is coming off a win in his last race-the 1 mile Big Bear Stakes on October 24th-where he posted a 105 Beyer Speed Figure. The only question is who will finish 2nd. My guess is that it will be Iron Fist ridden by Mike Smith. So a 3-4 Straight Exacta is how I would bet.

2016 Derby Future Wager Pool 1 (Thursday Nov 26th-Sunday Nov 29th)

Morning line odds by Mike Battaglia.

1. Airoforce 20-1
2. Annual Report 30-1
3. Brody’s Cause 15-1
4. Cocked and Loaded 30-1
5. Conquest Big E 50-1
6. Drefong 30-1
7. Exaggerator 30-1
8. Flexibility 30-1
9. Gift Box 30-1
10. Greenpointcrusader 30-1
11. Gun Runner 30-1
12. Matt King Coal 20-1
13. Mohaymen 15-1
14. Mor Spirit 20-1
15. Nyquist 10-1
16. Rated R Superstar 50-1
17. Riker 30-1
18. Sail Ahoy 30-1
19. Sunny Ridge 50-1
20. Swipe 15-1
21. Synchrony 30-1
22. Toews On Ice 30-1
23. Unbridled Outlaw 30-1
24. All Others 7-5

Bold Font represents horses in my most recent Early Kentucky Derby Favorite Rankings which you can read by clicking HERE

My advice, take #24 All Others as no colt has really emerged as an overwhelming favorite in my opinion when looking at historical Beyer Speed Figures. Nyquist is the best 2 year-old colt thus far but I feel that this may be a late bloomer class like 2007. The filly Songbird is the best 2 year-old regardless of gender.

–Michael

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