2016 Belmont Stakes Entries, Odds and Analysis

June 10th 2016

Below are the entries, post-positions and morning line 0dds for the 148th running of the Belmont Stakes. Exaggerator is the morning line favorite at 9/5 odds. Expect his live race odds to lower. Suddenbreakingnews picks up Hall of Fame jockey Mike Smith for this race.

As far as Triple Crown races, Suddenbreakingnews finished the closest to Exaggerator in terms of distance in lengths of any horse in the field with his 5th place finish in the Kentucky Derby. Next closest would be Cherry Wine.

The only horse (in this field) who has beaten Exaggerator is Brody’s Cause who finished ahead of him twice as a 2 year-old in the Breeders’ Futurity and Breeders’ Cup Juvenile races at Keeneland.

Overall, there isn’t a lot of speed in this field. Trainer Todd Pletcher has two entries: Stradivari (4th place finisher in the Preakness Stakes) and Destin (6th place finisher in the Kentucky Derby). Todd Pletcher is the only trainer in this year’s Belmont Stakes to have won multiple Belmont Stakes races. He is one of the best at training horses for this 1 1/2 mile distance. Pletcher got a 2nd place finish out of a very average Derby trail horse in Commissioner in the 2014 Belmont Stakes.

So Destin, who hasn’t raced since the Kentucky Derby, and Stradivari should be two horses to watch out for and consider in your Trifectas. Stradivari’s sire Medaglia d’Oro finished 2nd in the 2002 Belmont Stakes by 1/2 length after a disappointing 8th place finish in the Preakness Stakes. Exaggerator’s sire Curlin lost by a head in the 2007 Belmont Stakes. I am predicting another win by Exaggerator. The Preakness Stakes was Stradivari’s first race in the slop and I feel that he is a big strong horse that will probably run better on a dry, fast track. So how about a Exaggerator-Stradivari Exacta?

Unless it is a wet race, I wouldn’t bother putting these three horses in your Superfectas: #7 Seeking The Soul, #8 Forever d’Oro and #9 Trojan Nation. They are all 30-1 for a reason because they aren’t fast enough to race with this caliber of competition. Jockey Paco Lopez is riding #6 Gettysburg and he is a very underrated jockey who sometimes can get surprise finishes out of longshots.

Betting Advice: This depends on if the race if run on a dry, fast track or in wet, sloppy conditions. If it is run on a wet, sloppy track, I would place win, place and show bets on Exaggerator and forget trying to come up with any combinations. Even on a dry, fast track, there are many unknowns so I wouldn’t recommend placing large sums of money on this race. I will probably play a $25 Exacta that would cost $50 that keys Exaggerator to win with two horses (4-Suddenbreakingnews and 5-Stradivari). So 11 over 4,5. Then take another $50 and make a Win bet on Exaggerator. But this depends on his live odds. I like win bets on Exaggerator at 4/5 or higher.

Below are post-positions and morning line odds for the 148th Belmont Stakes:

1) Governor Malibu (12/1) – He will assume a stalking position in this race. I consider him a serious play in Trifectas and Superfectas with the same trainer and jockey who propelled Tonalist to a 2014 Belmont Stakes victory. 

Career: 7 Starts 2-4-1-0
Last 3 starts: 1st–>2nd–>2nd
Sire:  Malibu Moon
Trainer:  Christopher Clement (2014 Belmont Stakes Winning Trainer)
Jockey: Joel Rosario (2014 Belmont Stakes Winner)
Last Two Beyer Speed Figures: 83, 94 – 88.5 avg
Best Beyer Speed Figure: 94 – 2016 Peter Pan Stakes

2) Destin (6/1) – A rested Todd Pletcher-trained horse could be dangerous in the Belmont. I like him for Superfecta plays. But he faded a bit down the stretch in the Kentucky Derby that is worrisome.

Career: 6 Starts 3-1-0-1
Last 3 starts: 1st–>1st–>6th
Sire: Giant’s Causeway  
TrainerTodd Pletcher (2007 & 2013 Belmont Stakes Winning Trainer)
Jockey: Javier Castellano
Last Two Beyer Speed Figures: 100, 93 – 96.5 avg
Best Beyer Speed Figure: 100 – 2016 Tampa Bay Derby

3) Cherry Wine  (8/1) – Although he finished 2nd in the Preakness Stakes, I would be concerned how he will perform on a dry, fast track.

Career: 9 Starts 2-2-2-1
Last 3 starts: 4th–>3rd–>2nd
Sire:  Paddy O’Prado 
Trainer: Dale Romans 
Jockey:  Corey Lanerie
Last Two Beyer Speed Figures: 88, 96 – 92 avg
Best Beyer Speed Figure:  97 – 2016 Preakness Stakes

4) Suddenbreakingnews (10/1) – With Mike Smith as his jockey and his penchant for making up considerable ground as a closer, he should be a candidate for your Trifectas and Superfectas. I really don’t understand why his morning line odds were set at 10/1 versus Destin’s at 6/1 when he finished ahead of him in the 1 1/4 mile Kentucky Derby.

Career: 9 Starts 3-4-0-0
Last 3 starts: 5th–>2nd–>5th
Sire: Mineshaft 
Trainer: Donnie Von Hemel
Jockey: Mike Smith  (2010 & 2013 Belmont Stakes Winner)
Last Two Beyer Speed Figures: 94, 96 –  95 avg
Best Beyer Speed Figure: 96 –  2016 Kentucky Derby

5) Stradivari (5/1) – I think he is a serious threat to win this race so long as it is on a dry, fast track. A candidate for your Exactas, Trifectas and Superfectas.

Career: 4 Starts 2-0-0-2
Last 3 starts: 1st–>1st–>4th
Sire: Medaglia d’Oro (Finished 2nd in 2002 Belmont Stakes)
Trainer: Todd Pletcher (2007 & 2013 Belmont Stakes Winning Trainer)
Jockey: John Velazquez (2007 & 2012 Belmont Stakes Winner)
Last Two Beyer Speed Figures: 100, 95 – 97.5 avg
Best Beyer Speed Figure: 100Keeneland Allowance Race 4/17/16

6) Gettysburg (30/1) – A longshot who is viewed as the potential pacesetter in the Belmont. He has very underrated Paco Lopez as his jockey. I like him best of all the 30/1 longshots for a Superfecta.

Career: 7 Starts 1-1-2-0
Last 3 starts: 2nd–>5th–>3rd
Sire:  Pioneerof the Nile
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
Jockey: Paco Lopez
Last Two Beyer Speed Figures: 87, 87 – 87 avg
Best Beyer Speed Figure: 87 – 2016 Arkansas Derby

7) Seeking The Soul (30/1) – The better of the two Dallas Stewart-trained horses but neither will hit the board on a dry, fast track.

Career: 3 Starts 1-1-0-0
Last 3 starts: 2nd–>5th–>1st
Sire: Perfect Soul (IRE)
Trainer: Dallas Stewart
Jockey: Florent Geroux
Last Two Beyer Speed Figures: 79, 88 – 83.5 avg
Best Beyer Speed Figure:  88 – Churchill Downs MSW 5/29/201

8) Forever d’Oro (30/1) – 30/1 for a reason, see above. But he does have the pedigree to go long.

Career: 3 Starts 1-0-0-0
Last 3 starts: 5th–>5th–>1st
Sire: Medaglia d’Oro (Finished 2nd in 2002 Belmont Stakes)
Trainer: Dallas Stewart
Jockey: Jose Ortiz
Last Two Beyer Speed Figures: 71, 81 – 76 avg
Best Beyer Speed Figure:  81 – Belmont MSW 5/29/16

9) Trojan Nation (30/1) – He has yet to win a race and it won’t be this either. Don’t bother using him in Superfectas unless it is a wet race.

Career: 7 Starts 0-1-3-1
Last 3 starts: 3rd–>2nd–>16th
Sire:  Street Cry
Trainer:  Patrick Gallagher
Jockey: Aaron Gryder
Last Two Beyer Speed Figures: 93, 63- 78 avg
Best Beyer Speed Figure:  93 – 2016 Wood Memorial

10) Lani (20/1) – A temperamental Japanese-trained horse who improved in his last start in the Preakness. A Superfecta candidate but not a threat to win.

Career: 8 Starts 3-1-0-1
Last 3 starts: 1st–>9th–>5th
Sire: Tapit
Trainer: Mikio Matsunaga 
Jockey:  Yukata Take
Last Two Beyer Speed Figures: 87, 93 – 90 avg
Best Beyer Speed Figure: 94 – 2016 Preakness Stakes

11) Exaggerator (9/5)  – He has never finished below 3rd as a 3 year-0ld. He has never finished below 2nd in his last three Grade 1 Stakes races. His live odds will go lower than 9/5. I think he will win but he is beatable. 

Career: 11 Starts 5-3-1-1 
Last 3 starts: 1st–>2nd–>1st
Sire: Curlin (Finished 2nd in 2007 Belmont Stakes)
Trainer: Keith Desormeaux
Jockey: Kent Desormeaux (2009 Belmont Stakes Winner)
Last Two Beyer Speed Figures: 101, 101 – 101 avg
Best Beyer Speed Figure: 103 – 2016 Santa Anita Derby

12) Brody’s Cause (20/1) – The only horse in this field who has beaten Exaggerator but this came as a 2 year-old. I haven’t been impressed with his 3 year-old campaign thus far. A candidate for your Superfecta.

Career: 7 Starts 3-0-1-0
Last 3 starts: 7th–>1st–>7th
Sire: Giant’s Causeway 
Trainer: Dale Romans
Jockey: Luis Saez
Last Two Beyer Speed Figures: 91, 89 – 90 avg
Best Beyer Speed Figure: 91 – 2016 Blue Grass Stakes

13) Creator (10/1) – At 10/1, I expect his odds to go higher. Will he bounce back after a disappointing 13th place finish in the Kentucky Derby? He is a big roll of the dice.

Career: 9 Starts 2-4-1-0
Last 3 starts: 3rd–>1st–>13th
Sire: Tapit
Trainer: Steve Asmussen 
Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr
Last Two Beyer Speed Figures: 96, 76 – 86 avg
Best Beyer Speed Figure: 96 – 2016 Arkansas Derby


–Michael

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