August | 2016 | Mike's Derby Picks

Arrogate dominates the Travers Stakes with a new track record. Updated 2016 Breeders’ Cup Classic Contender Rankings

Posted on August 30, 2016 by Michael J. Cox

August 30th 2016

Just when I was lamenting the fact that this year’s 3 year-old crop was slow when looking at their Beyer Speed Figures… and that none posed a huge threat to win this year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic…enter the Bob Baffert-trained late-bloomer Arrogate. He stunned the Saratoga crowd this past Saturday with a performance that spectators are still buzzing about (shown below). He received a 122 Beyer Speed Figure for this incredible effort. The highest Beyer Speed Figure ever earned by a 3 year-old is 124 set by Sunday Silence and Easy Goer in 1989.

Arrogate won by 13 1/2 lengths and his winning time of 1:59.36 set a Travers Stakes record and Saratoga track record for a mile and a quarter. The previous record for the Travers at 1 1/4 mile distance was 2 minutes flat. Saratoga is one of the oldest horse racing venues in North America and has never been considered a “fast track”.

Spectacular Bid holds the world record on dirt for a 1 1/4 mile at 1:57.80 but he accomplished this feat as a 4 year-old. For 3 year-olds, a horse named Quack holds the world record on dirt for 1 1/4th mile at 1:58.20 set in the 1972 Hollywood Gold Cup race.

Just when I thought California Chrome was a virtual lock to win this year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic, Arrogate muddies up the picture with a freakish performance. And if he draws an inside post, it could toast for Chrome in The Classic. Below is my updated Breeders’ Cup contender rankings:

Updated Top 12 Breeders’ Cup Classic Contenders

1) California Chrome* – He’s undefeated in five starts in 2016. The all-time North American leader in race earnings with $13.25 million dollars. In the San Diego Handicap, California Chrome displayed a fight that we have never seen before since he has usually won with ease. His win in the Pacific Classic was arguably the best performance of his career. Next Start: The Awesome Again Stakes at Santa Anita October 1st.

Career: 23 Starts 14-3-1-1 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 6
Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 6 Starts 4-1-1-0
Last 3 starts: 1st–>1st–>1st
Sire: Lucky Pulpit
Trainer: Art Sherman
Jockey: Victor Espinosa (2015 Breeders’ Cup Classic Winner)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 1:59.93 (calculated) – 2014 Breeders’ Cup Classic
Best Beyer in 1 1/4 Mile Race: 113 – 2014 Breeders’ Cup Classic & 2016 Pacific Classic
Career Beyer Speed Figure: 113 – 2014 Breeders’ Cup Classic & 2016 Pacific Classic

2) Arrogate – He lands at #2 in my rankings despite the fact that he has produced a mile and a quarter time faster than any other active horse on dirt. However, color me a slight bit skeptical until he can replicate anything close to his Travers Stakes performance. As a 3 year-old, Albert the Great ran a 1:59.24 mile and a quarter in the 2000 Jockey Club Gold Cup race and finished 4th in the Breeders’ Cup Classic that year. Then he finished 3rd in the BCC the following year. There is no doubt that Bob Baffert has a star colt in Arrogate and he will get a 4 pound advantage over Chrome and Frosted in the Breeders’ Cup Classic. I just need more than one awesome performance to elevate him higher. Unfortunately, it doesn’t look like we will get that. Next Start: Bob Baffert indicated that he is going to train Arrogate up to the Breeders’ Cup Classic like he did with American Pharoah. Although I think Arrogate would benefit from another start before The Classic, it is hard to argue with a strategy of one of the top trainers in the world.

Career: 5 Starts 4-0-1-0 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 1
Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 1 Starts 1-0-0-0
Last 3 starts: 1st–>1st–>1st
Sire: Unbridled’s Song
Trainer: Bob Baffert (2014 & 2015 Breeders’ Cup Classic Winning Trainer)
Jockey: Mike Smith (1997, 2009 & 2011 Breeders’ Cup Classic Winner)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 1:59.36 – 2016 Travers Stakes
Best Beyer in 1 1/4 Mile Race: 122 – 2016 Travers Stakes
Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 122 –2016 Travers Stakes

3) Frosted* – With his win in the Whitney Stakes, he received a 107 Beyer Speed Figure. He has set two track records thus far as a 4 year old. The first came at Meydan in the 1900 meter Al Maktoum Challenge in February. His most recent came in the 124th running of the Metropolitan Handicap with a time of 1:32.73 that resulted in the highest Beyer Speed Figure (123) of his career and the highest of any thoroughbred thus far in 2016. Next Start: the Woodward Stakes at Saratoga on September 3rd. Then he will train up to the Breeders’ Cup Classic.

Career: 17 Starts 6-6-1-2 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 3
Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 4 Starts 0-0-1-1
Last 3 starts: 5th–>1st–>1st
Sire: Tapit
Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin (2006 Breeders’ Cup Classic Winning Trainer)
Jockey: Joel Rosario
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:02.05 (calculated) – 2015 Travers Stakes
Best Beyer in 1 1/4 Mile Race: 103 – 2014 Breeders’ Cup Classic
Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 123 – 2016 Metropolitan Handicap

4) Melatonin* – He is undefeated at a mile and a quarter. He is a legitimate threat to California Chrome. The surprise winner of the 2016 Santa Anita Handicap. He proved his Big ‘Cap performance was no fluke by finishing 2nd behind Effinex in the Oaklawn Handicap and completing the Big ‘Cap-Gold Cup Double. His win in the Gold Cup at Santa Anita assures him a spot in this year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic. He is trained by David Hofmans who won the Breeders’ Cup Classic in 1996 with Alphabet Soup. He was originally pegged to start in the Pacific Classic but he wasn’t entered due to coming off a persistent illness. Next Start: The Awesome Again Stakes at Santa Anita on October 1st.

Career: 13 Starts 5-3-3-1 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 2
Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 2 Starts 2-0-0-0
Last 3 starts: 1st–>2nd–>1st
Sire: Kodiak Kowboy
Trainer: David Hofmans (1996 Breeders’ Cup Classic Winning Trainer)
Jockey: Joe Talamo
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 1:59.79 – 2016 Gold Cup at Santa Anita
Best Beyer in 1 1/4 Mile Race: 109 – 2016 Gold Cup at Santa Anita
Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 109 – 2016 Gold Cup at Santa Anita

5) Beholder – Her 2nd place finish in the Pacific Classic was a commendable performance. However, she has slipped a bit off of her 2015 form where she had the stunning performance in the 2015 TVG Pacific Classic (shown below) that put her #1 in many Breeders’ Cup Classic rankings last year. Her trainer Richard Mandella said that he may opt for the Breeders’ Cup Distaff instead of The Classic. Next Start: The Zenyatta Stakes at Santa Anita Park on October 1st.

Career: 24 Starts 17-5-0-2 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 10
Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 1 Starts 1-1-0-0
Last 3 starts: 1st–>2nd–>2nd
Sire: Henny Hughes
Trainer: Richard Mandella (2003 Breeders’ Cup Classic Winning Trainer)
Jockey: Gary Stevens (2013 Breeders’ Cup Classic Winner)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 1:59.77 – 2015 Pacific Classic
Best Beyer in 1 1/4 Mile Race: 114 – 2015 Pacific Classic
Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 114 – 2015 Pacific Classic

6) Dortmund – Nice performances in the San Diego Handicap (2nd) and Pacific Classic (3rd), but he still needs to prove himself beyond 9 furlongs. He has the pedigree for distance. His sire Big Brown won the 2008 Kentucky Derby. The rumor mill suggests that he might be entered in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile over The Classic. Next Start: Unknown.

Career: 12 Starts 8-1-2-1 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 2
Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 1 Starts 0-0-2-0
Last 3 starts: 1st–>2nd–>3rd
Sire: Big Brown
Trainer: Bob Baffert (2014 & 2015 Breeders’ Cup Classic Winning Trainer)
Jockey: Gary Stevens (2013 Breeders’ Cup Classic Winner)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:01.29 (calculated) – 2016 Pacific Classic
Best Beyer in 1 1/4 Mile Race: 101 – 2015 Kentucky Derby
Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 110 –2016 San Diego Handicap

7) Effinex – His 4th place finish in the Whitney Stakes was a bit of a disappointment. He finished 2nd to American Pharoah in the 2015 Breeders’ Cup Classic. For 2016, he has two wins in the Oaklawn Handicap and the Suburban Handicap. Next Start: Unknown but I am guessing the Jockey Club Gold Cup race at Belmont Park on October 8th.

Career: 25 Starts 9-2-4-4 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 1
Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 7 Starts 3-1-2-1
Last 3 starts: 6th–>1st–>4th
Sire: Mineshaft
Trainer: Jimmy Jerkens
Jockey: Mike Smith (1997, 2009, 2011 Breeders’ Cup Classic Winner)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:01.04 – 2016 Suburban Handicap
Best Beyer in 1 1/4 Mile Race: 112 – 2015 Breeders’ Cup Classic
Career Best Beyer Speed: 112 – 2015 Breeders’ Cup Classic

8) Hoppertunity – He kept his streak alive of finishing 4th or better in every graded stakes race in his career with a 4th place finish in the Pacific Classic. He is extremely consistent and probably would finish in the top 4 in any race no matter the talent in the field. Next Start: Unknown but probably the Awesome Again Stakes at Santa Anita on October 1st.

Career: 21 Starts 5-6-4-5 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 1
Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 4 Starts 0-1-1-3
Last 3 starts: 3rd–>4th–>4th
Sire: Any Given Saturday
Trainer: Bob Baffert (2014 & 2015 Breeders’ Cup Classic Winning Trainer)
Jockey: Flavien Prat
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:00.16 (calculated) – 2016 Gold Cup at Santa Anita
Best Beyer in 1 1/4 Mile Race: 104 – 2016 Gold Cup at Santa Anita
Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 108 – 2016 San Antonio Stakes

9) Nyquist – The 2016 Kentucky Derby winner needs a big win down the road if he wants to win the 2016 Eclipse 3 Year Old Male of the Year award. Next Start: The most recent news is that Nyquist will stay at San Luis Rey Downs through the entire month of August and is being pointed towards the Pennsylvania Derby at PARX on September 24th.

Career: 10 Starts 8-0-1-1 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 5
Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 1 Start 1-0-0-0
Last 3 starts: 1st–>3rd–>4th
Sire: Uncle Mo
Trainer: Doug O’Neill
Jockey: Mario Gutierrez
Fastest 1 1/4th Mile Time: 2:01.31 – 2016 Kentucky Derby
Best Beyer in 1 1/4 Mile Race: 103 – 2016 Kentucky Derby
Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 103 – 2016 Kentucky Derby

10) Exaggerator* – The Slopmeister. It is now evident after his disappointing finishes in the Belmont and Travers Stakes that Exaggerator is highly dependent on a fast pace and a sloppy track. With wins in the Santa Anita Derby, the Preakness Stakes and the Haskell Invitational (shown below), Exaggerator is in the mix for an Eclipse award for the best 3-year-0ld colt in 2016. But he needs a great dry track performance somewhere down the line. Next Start: Unknown but he has qualified for the Breeders’ Cup Classic.

Career: 14 Starts 6-3-1-1 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 3
Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 2 Start 0-1-0-0
Last 3 starts: 11th–>1st–>11th
Sire: Curlin (2007 Breeders’ Cup Classic Winner)
Trainer: Keith Desormeaux
Jockey: Kent Desormeaux
Fastest 1 1/4th Mile Time: 2:01.51 (calculated) – 2016 Kentucky Derby
Best Beyer in 1 1/4 Mile Race: 101 – 2016 Kentucky Derby
Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 103 – 2016 Santa Anita Derby

11) Bradester* – With his most recent win in the Monmouth Cup, Bradester now has won three races in three starts in 2016. Although he has never raced beyond 1 1/8th mile, Bradester qualified for the Breeders’ Cup Classic with his win in the Stephen Foster Handicap. It appears that he is being pointed towards the Breeders’ Cup Mile rather than The Classic. He finished a disappointing 9th in the 2015 Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile. 6 of his career 10 wins have come at the 1 1/16th mile distance. Next Start: Woodward Stakes at Saratoga September 3rd.

Career: 24 Starts 10-6-2-1 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 1
Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 0 Starts 0-0-0-0
Last 3 starts: 1st—>1st–>1st
Sire: Lion Heart
Trainer: Eddie Kenneally
Jockey: Joe Bravo
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: N/A
Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 109 – 2015 Salvator Mile Stakes

12) Gun Runner – The Louisiana Derby winner. He has achieved two 3rd finishes in two of the major 1 1/4 miles races for 3 year-olds in the Kentucky Derby and Travers Stakes. And he received his best Beyer Speed Figure of his career (102) in the Travers Stakes. I like the upward trend and this is Steve Asmussen’s best Classic contender after Creator bombed out in the Jim Dandy and Travers Stakes. Some may want to insert American Freedom in this spot but Baffert has Arrogate, Dortmund and Hoppertunity as BCC contenders. Next Start: The Pennsylvania Derby at PARX on September 24th.

Career: 9 Starts 5-0-2-1 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 0
Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 2 Start 0-0-2-0
Last 3 starts: 1st–>5th–>3rd
Sire: Candy Ride
Trainer: Steve Asmussen (2007 Breeders’ Cup Classic Winning Trainer)
Jockey: Florent Geroux
Fastest 1 1/4th Mile Time: 2:02.03 (calculated) – 2016 Kentucky Derby
Best Beyer in 1 1/4 Mile Race: 102 – 2016 Travers Stakes
Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 102 – 2016 Travers Stakes

Note: Horses who have qualified for the Breeders’ Cup Classic have an asterisk next to their name.

Below are the key upcoming races with “Win and You’re In” Breeders’ Cup Classic races in bold font:

September 3rd – Woodward Stakes – Saratoga – 1 1/8 Mile – Purse: $600,000 – NBCSN

September 24th – Pennsylvania Derby – PARX – 1 1/8 Mile – Purse: $1,000,000 – TVG

October 1st – Awesome Again Stakes – Santa Anita – 1 1/8 Mile – Purse: $300,000 – NBCSN

October 8th – Jockey Gold Cup – Belmont Park – 1 1/4 Mile – Purse: $1,000,000 – NBC

*****

November 5th – Breeders’ Cup Classic – Santa Anita – 1 1/4 Mile – Purse: $6,000,000 – NBC

I will have a Woodward Stakes preview by Friday evening September 2nd. Then another updated Breeders’ Cup Classic contender rankings list by Tuesday evening September 5th. After that, I will focus on the 2 year-old 2017 Kentucky Derby class for which I like Classic Empire, Straight Fire and Klimt thus far.

–Michael

2016 Travers Stakes Preview – Will Exaggerator prevail at the Graveyard of Champions?

Posted on August 24, 2016 by Michael J. Cox

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August 24th 2016 – Updated 8/26/16 (see below)

Coming this Saturday on NBC is the 147th running of the Travers Stakes for 3 year-olds. Consider the history of this race at the hallowed grounds of Saratoga. It was first run in 1864 when Abraham Lincoln was President. That was seven score and twelve years ago. It was once viewed as the fourth leg of the Triple Crown. It seems to produce upsets or controversy. Most notably in 1930 when the Triple Crown champion Gallant Fox was upset by the 100-1 longshot Jim Dandy. More fresh on everyour minds was last year when Keen Ice shocked the Saratoga crowd by beating American Pharoah.

Then there was the Affirmed vs Alydar showdown in 1978 that resulted in Affirmed being disqualified by a foul. To date, the only Triple Crown winner to ever win the Travers Stakes was Whirlaway in 1941.

There is no Triple Crown winner this year to test the Saratoga racing gods but we do have a number of horses in this field that competed in this year’s Triple Crown races:

Exaggerator – Preakness Stakes winner, 2nd in the Kentucky Derby, 11th in the Belmont Stakes
Creator – Belmont Stakes winner, 13th in the Kentucky Derby
Destin – 2nd in the Belmont Stakes, 6th in the Kentucky Derby
Gun Runner – 3rd in the Kentucky Derby
Governo Malibu – 4th in the Belmont Stakes
My Man Sam – 11th in the Kentucky Derby
Majesto – 18th in the Kentucky Derby
Laoban – the surprise Jim Dandy Stakes winner who finished 6th in the Preakness
Forever d’Oro – 13th in the Belmont Stakes

Plus some late bloomers like the Curlin Stakes winner Connect, Bob Baffert’s Iowa Derby winner American Freedom who finished 2nd to Exaggerator in the Haskell Invitational and Bob Baffert’s other promising colt–Arrogate–who produced a 103 Beyer Speed Figure at Santa Anita Park in June.

Then there’s the once promising Chad Brown colt Gift Box who was sidelined during the Derby trail season due to illness. He gave Connect a real battle in the Curlin Stakes. And the 50-1 odds horse Anaximandros. I think his name means longshot in Latin.

Here are the post-positions, riders and morning line odds:

The Travers Stakes – 1 1/4th Mile – Saturday August 27th – Race #11 at Saratoga – Post-Time: 4:44 PM CST. Televised by NBC

Post Horse/(Jockey/Trainer/ Odds
1. Arrogate – Smith/Baffert – 10-1
2. American Freedom – Bejarano/Baffert – 6-1
3. My Man Sam – Franco/Brown – 20-1
4. Governor Malibu – Rosario/Clement – 12-1
5. Forever d’Oro – Saez/Stewart – 30-1
6. Anaximandros – Reyes/Yakakov – 50-1
7. Exaggerator – Desormeax/Desormeax – 3-1
8. Destin – Castellano/Pletcher – 10-1
9. Gift Box – Alvarado/Brown- 12-1
10. Connect – Velazquez/Brown – 4-1
~~11. Majesto – Santana/Delgato – 30-1~~ SCRATCHED
12. Creator – Ortiz Jr./Asmussen – 15-1
13. Laoban – Ortiz/Guillot – 15-1
14. Gun Runner – Geroux/Asmussen – 10-1

My Prediction: This will be an interesting race. Exaggerator is the class of the field. He has won before at Saratoga as a 2 year old. He has a good starting position in the middle of pack. It would be hard to bet against him here but why would this year be any different for a race that typically springs upsets? Especially when there is no rain in the forecast. This race is very hard to handicap since a few of these horses, and some very promising ones like Connect, have yet to race 10 furlongs. And those who raced in the Kentucky Derby may have significantly improved by now. This race’s exotic bets should payout nice if you are lucky enough to hit one.

Here are the Top Beyer Speed Figures for horses in this field at races longer than one mile

Arrogate              SA           24 Jun   1 1/16M 103
Exaggerator SA           09 Apr   1 1/8M 103
Connect               SAR        29 Jul     1 1/8M 101
Exaggerator   CD          07 May 1 1/4M 101
Exaggerator MTH      31 Jul     1 1/8M 101
Exaggerator PIM        21 May 1 3/16M 101
Laoban SAR 30 Jul 1 1/8M 101
Destin TAM      12 Mar 1 1/16M 100

This is why I would lean towards picking Exaggerator (The Slopmeister) to win this race even on a dry track surface. Connect and American Freedom are probably good bets to finish in the superfecta. After that, it depends on which Gun Runner, Creator and Destin shows up. Arrogate is hurt by drawing the rail. I have no magic crystal ball for this one folks. Good luck and happy viewing!

Update! 8/26/16

One thing I noticed in my research tonight is how the top 3 finishers in Jim Dandy Stakes fared in the Travers Stakes the past 4 years. The Jim Dandy Stakes is a 9 furlong (1 1/8th mile) race that is a prep race for the Travers.

2015 – Frosted finished 2nd in the Jim Dandy and 3rd in the Travers
2014 – Wicked Strong and Tonalist finished 1-2 in the Jim Dandy and then 2nd and 3rd respectively in the Travers.
2013 – Will Take Charge finished 2nd in the Jim Dandy and won the Travers
2012 – Alpha and Neck ‘n Neck finished 1-2 in the Jim Dandy and tied in a dead heat in the Travers.

The Top 3 finishers in this year’s Jim Dandy Stakes were: 1) Laoban, 2) Governor Malibu and 3) Destin. So if you are looking for horses to put into your superfecta bets, it would be a good idea to include one or two of these horses. Of the three, Governor Malibu seems to be the safest bet of the three to hit the board based on his career history.

Two horses that I wouldn’t put in my superfectas are: Anaximandros and My Man Sam. Majesto has been scratched. Forever d’Oro is the only longshot that might have a chance to hit the board. He is a half-brother to Songbird but he has yet to run like it. He crapped out in the Belmont Stakes but moved up well in the Curlin Stakes to finish 3rd.

As I stated earlier, this will be an interesting race. Sort of a mini Kentucky Derby. Since the Haskell Invitational was a wet race, which some horses don’t run well in, we could see a return to form for a horse like Gun Runner. But I am not convinced he likes a mile and a quarter.

–Michael

California Chrome shines in the Pacific Classic. Songbird makes it 10 in a row. Where do they rank among the greatest thoroughbreds of all-time?

Posted on August 21, 2016 by Michael J. Cox

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August 21st 2016

When American Pharoah was retired last fall, there was concern how the sport would maintain interest moving forward in 2016 after losing such a huge star that brought so many new fans to the sport. Exactly, how would the sport fare in the post-American Pharoah hangover?

Well folks, the sport of thoroughbred horse racing is alive and doing extremely well thanks to a rehabilitated and rejuvenated California Chrome and the emergence of the star filly Songbird. Both are ranked in the Top 25 racehorses in the world by Longines and the two dominated their competition yesterday. And they both answered a few questions skeptics may have had about them along the way.

First, Songbird put her undefeated record on the line and faced a new challenge since she had never raced further than a 9 furlongs (1 1/8th mile). How well would she stretch out to the Classic distance of 10 furlongs (1 1/4 mile)? Although her winning time of 2 minutes, 3 seconds flat wasn’t astonishing, she answered that question beautifully, winning the Alabama Stakes (shown below) by 7 lengths. 10 career starts, 10 wins.

Then California Chrome faced the deepest, most talented field he has seen this year in the Pacific Classic. A rematch with Dortmund who battled him so well in the San Diego Handicap and the reigning Pacific Classic champion in Beholder. And to make the challenge greater, he drew the dreaded rail for the race. If Chrome has a weakness, it was running inside of horses. But he got out of gate quickly and proceeded to wire the field, winning easily by 5 lengths. He received a Beyer Speed Figure of 113 for the effort.

Greatest Racing Thoroughbreds

Now the question becomes, where does California Chrome rank among the greatest thoroughbreds of all-time? And does Songbird’s undefeated mark put her in the discussion of greatest thoroughbreds?

With Songbird’s undefeated record after 10 starts and how she dominates her competition, it is time to entertain the thought that Songbird might be one of the Top 100 race thoroughbreds of all-time and one of the Top 10 filly/mares of all-time. There have been many great fillies and mares in North American horse racing and especially in the last 50 years: Zenyatta, Ruffian, Personal Ensign, Susan’s Girl, Rags to Riches, Winning Colors, Rachel Alexandra, Azeri, Genuine Risk, Lady’s Secret, etc.

All I can say is that Songbird really needs to win the Cotillion Stakes next month at PARX and finish out the year with a win in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff to cement her position in the discussion of greatest filly/mares of all-time. Then a big win against the boys. She wasn’t able to compete in the Kentucky Oaks due to developing a fever and she lacks that one big signature win. She will race as a 4 year-old and probably face the boys at one point along the way next year.

With a win in the Cotillion Stakes and Breeders’ Cup Distaff, that would make her undefeated after 12 starts. For comparison purposes, Personal Ensign retired undefeated with 13 wins and had a win against the boys in the Whitney Handicap and a Breeders’ Cup Distaff championship on her resume. Personal Ensign was ranked 48th in the Top 100 Racehorses of the 20th Century by Blood Horse magazine in 2000.

So Songbird has got more work to do. It looks like she will face the Kentucky Oaks winner Cathryn Sophia in the Cotillion. And perhaps Beholder in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff as her trainer Richard Mandella is leaning that way after her 2nd place performance in the Pacific Classic.

Now on to California Chrome and where he ranks. I feel that he is easily Top 30 all-time, probably Top 20. He currently ranks as the all-time leader for North American racehorses in earnings at $13.25 Million dollars. As a comparison, I think he compares most favorably to Cigar who was ranked 18th in the Top 100 Racehorses of the 20th Century by Blood Horse. In 1996, Cigar retired as the North American all-time leader in earnings at nearly $10 million dollars ($9,999,815). This would equate to over $15 Million in today dollars.

In order to elevate California Chrome into the Top 15 and to cement his position in the Top 20, I think he needs to win this year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic or next year’s Pegasus World Cup. A Breeders’ Cup Classic win would push him over the $16 million mark in winnings. And he will then have wins in the Santa Anita Derby, Kentucky Derby, Preakness Stakes, Hollywood Derby (turf race), Dubai World Cup, Pacific Classic and Breeders’ Cup Classic on his resume.

In conclusion, I think we have been really blessed to watch these two horses compete this year. And a big KUDOS to Art and Alan Sherman for the job they have done training and rehabilitating California Chrome. The sport really needed a resurgent Chrome.

–Michael

2016 Pacific Classic Preview – California Chrome vs. Beholder vs. Dortmund. Updated Breeders Cup Classic Contender Rankings

Posted on August 17, 2016 by Michael J. Cox

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August 17th 2016 – Updated August 20th

If you have followed my Breeders’ Cup Classic contender rankings the past couple of months, a special treat is in store for you this coming Saturday evening. An unexpected “Clash of the Titans” at Del Mar in the Pacific Classic that matches California Chrome, Dortmund and Beholder. Need I say more? Below is the starting field and it resembles a Breeders’ Cup Classic Lite. The winner gets an automatic entry into The Classic.

Note that 6 of my Top 12 Breeders’ Cup Classic contenders are entered. And the 3 year-old Desormeaux brothers colt Dalmore is a potential “board-hitter” after producing a 102 Beyer Speed Figure in his last start at Santa Anita Park in the Affirmed Stakes (shown below). He didn’t have the most perfect trip, was forced wide and showed a willingness to battle and fight for a win.

Dalmore’s sire Colonel John won the Travers Stakes in 2008 and then finished 6th in a 12 horse field in the Breeders’ Cup Classic that year as a 3 year-0ld. Colonel John finished 5th as a 4 year-old in the Breeders’ Cup Classic. This is a good horse and his winning time in the 1 1/16th mile Affirmed Stakes was 1:40.84, the same time California Chrome had in the 1 1/16th mile San Diego Handicap. And he will race 6 pounds ligther than Chrome.

Dalmore is very unlikely to win in this heavy-hitter older talented field but you should consider him for you exotic bets and you could be seeing a new star for next season. He may be, at this stage, a better dry fast track runner from the Desormeaux brothers stable than Exaggerator. At least at 8 1/2 furlongs. We will see how well he stretches out to 10 furlongs.

Here are the post-positions and morning line odds:

The Pacific Classic – 1 1/4th Mile – Saturday August 20th – Race #9 at Del Mar – Post-Time: 8:15 PM CST. Televised by TVG.

Post Position/Horse/Weight/Jockey/Trainer/Odds
1. California Chrome (124) – Espinoza/Sherman – 8/5
2. Hoppertunity (124) – Pratt/Baffert – 8/1
3. War Story (124) – Mejas/Greenman – 30/1
4. Hard Aces (124) – Gonzalez/Sadler – 15/1
5. Win the Space (124) – Talamo/Papaprodromou – 15/1
6. Imperative (124) – Arroyo/Baltas – 20/1
7. Beholder (119) – Stevens/Mandella – 7/2
8. Dortmund (124) – Bejarano/Baffert – 5/2
9. Dalmore (118) – Desormeaux/Desormeaux – 20-1

My prediction: I think California Chrome wins a hardly contested battle against Dortmund and the surprise new shooter Dalmore. War Story will finish last. Imperative will finish 7th or 8th. What happens in between is guesswork with this good of a field and much of this depends on what type of performance we see from Beholder. If she is healthy and 100% ready to rumble, she can win this race.

Hoppertunity‘s streak of finishing 4th or better in every graded stakes race of his career could be in jeopardy. Hard Aces is a closer and he should get the early speed his style is looking for. Win the Space will have to race with 6 more pounds than he had to in the San Diego Handicap and he never really challenged California Chrome or Dortmund in that race. Ultimately, this is a better “sit back and watch” race rather than one to bet on. But if you nail a few of the “unexpecteds” (anybody beats Chrome, the 20-1 Dalmore wins or finishes 2nd) this could be very nice payday.

Also, there is a Cross-Country Pick 4 today between Saratoga and Del Mar. Here are my X-Country Pick 4 Picks: Race #1 Fourstardave Handicap (2-6-8–Grand Arch, Ring Weekend, Tourist), Race #2 Alabama Stakes (6–Songbird), Race #3 Del Mar Handicap (4-8–Metaboss-Ashleyluvsugar), Race #4 Pacific Classic (1-7–California Chrome, Beholder). $1 bet would cost $12. If you like a longshot and a potential huge payout, put Dalmore #8 into your Race #4 for $4 more dollars.

Breeders’ Cup Classic

As I said in my last blog, I don’t think the 2016 Kentucky Derby class has any serious threats yet to win “The Classic” this year. 3 year-olds have won the Breeders Cup Classic only 9 times in 32 runnings of the race. That is only 28%. I think an older horse will win it this year. But we have a few months more to go and these young horses can make huge strides as the year goes on. Exaggerator appears to the best of this 2016 3 year-old class.

Beyer Speed Figures

One thing to keep an eye on is Beyer Speed Figures. Below is the Beyer Speed Figures for the last ten runnings of the Breeders’ Cup Classic. The average Beyer Speed Figure for this 10 year period was 113.4.

2015       American Pharoah (120)
2014       Bayern (113)
2013       Mucho Macho Man (112)
2012       Fort Larned (117)
2011 Drosselmeyer (104)
2010       Blame (111)
2009       Zenyatta (112)
2008       Raven’s Pass (110)
2007       Curlin (119)
2006       Invasor (106)

I think it is going to take a 112+ Beyer Speed Figure to win this year’s Classic. This was the Beyer Speed Figure that Effinex received for his 2nd place finish behind American Pharoah in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic (BCC). American Pharoah’s highest Beyer Speed Figure entering last year’s classic was 109 before he reeled off a 120 to become the first Grand Slam winner of Thoroughbred racing. Bayern’s highest was 111 before he produced a career high 113 in the 2014 edition of the BCC. So a 109 Beyer Speed Figure could be a benchmark for three year olds to be viewed as serious threats to win The Classic. The highest Beyer Speed Figure a 3 year-old has produced thus far at more than a mile distance is 103 (Exaggerator, Nyquist and Arrogate).

Updated Top 12 Breeders’ Cup Classic Contenders

1) California Chrome – He’s undefeated in four starts in 2016. With his Dubai World Cup win in March, he became the all-time North American leader in race earnings with $12.5 million dollars. In the San Diego Handicap, California Chrome displayed a fight that we have never seen before since he has usually won with ease. He is expected to be an entry in the Breeders’ Cup Classic and the Pegasus World Cup next January. Next Start: The Pacific Classic at Del Mar on August 20th.

Career: 22 Starts 13-3-1-1 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 5
Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 5 Starts 3-1-1-0
Last 3 starts: 1st–>1st–>1st
Sire: Lucky Pulpit
Trainer: Art Sherman
Jockey: Victor Espinosa (2015 Breeders’ Cup Classic Winner)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 1:59.93 (calculated) – 2014 Breeders’ Cup Classic
Best Beyer in 1 1/4 Mile Race: 113 – 2014 Breeders’ Cup Classic
Career Beyer Speed Figure: 113 – 2014 Breeders’ Cup Classic

2) Frosted* – With his win in the Whitney Stakes, he received a 107 Beyer Speed Figure. He has set two track records thus far as a 4 year old. The first came at Meydan in the 1900 meter Al Maktoum Challenge in February. His most recent came in the 124th running of the Metropolitan Handicap with a time of 1:32.73 that resulted in the highest Beyer Speed Figure (123) of his career and the highest of any thoroughbred thus far in 2016. Next Start: the Woodward Stakes at Saratoga on September 3rd. Then he will train up to the Breeders’ Cup Classic.

Career: 17 Starts 6-6-1-2 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 3
Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 4 Starts 0-0-1-1
Last 3 starts: 5th–>1st–>1st
Sire: Tapit
Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin (2006 Breeders’ Cup Classic Winning Trainer)
Jockey: William Buick
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:02.05 (calculated) – 2015 Travers Stakes
Best Beyer in 1 1/4 Mile Race: 103 – 2014 Breeders’ Cup Classic
Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 123 – 2016 Metropolitan Handicap

3) Melatonin* – The surprise winner of the 2016 Santa Anita Handicap. He proved his Big ‘Cap performance was no fluke by finishing 2nd behind Effinex in the Oaklawn Handicap and completing the Big ‘Cap-Gold Cup Double. His win in the Gold Cup at Santa Anita assures him a spot in this year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic. He is trained by David Hofmans who won the Breeders’ Cup Classic in 1996 with Alphabet Soup. He was originally pegged to start in the Pacific Classic this coming weekend but he wasn’t entered due to coming off a persistent illness. Next Start: The Awesome Again Stakes at Santa Anita on October 1st.

Career: 13 Starts 5-3-3-1 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 2
Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 2 Starts 2-0-0-0
Last 3 starts: 1st–>2nd–>1st
Sire: Kodiak Kowboy
Trainer: David Hofmans (1996 Breeders’ Cup Classic Winning Trainer)
Jockey: Joe Talamo
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 1:59.79 – 2016 Gold Cup at Santa Anita
Best Beyer in 1 1/4 Mile Race: 109 – 2016 Gold Cup at Santa Anita
Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 109 – 2016 Gold Cup at Santa Anita

4) Dortmund – Despite Dortmund’s impressive battle with California Chrome in the San Diego Handicap, he still needs to prove himself beyond 9 furlongs. He has the pedigree for distance. His sire Big Brown won the 2008 Kentucky Derby. However, Dortmund has only raced once at the Classic distance of a miler and a quarter. That came in the 2015 Kentucky Derby where he finished 3rd behind American Pharoah and Firing Line. Next Start: The Pacific Classic at Del Mar on August 20th.

Career: 11 Starts 8-1-1-1 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 2

Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 1 Starts 0-0-1-0
Last 3 starts: 1st—>1st–>2nd
Sire: Big Brown
Trainer: Bob Baffert (2014 & 2015 Breeders’ Cup Classic Winning Trainer)
Jockey: Gary Stevens (2013 Breeders’ Cup Classic Winner)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:03.50 (calculated) – 2015 Kentucky Derby
Best Beyer in 1 1/4 Mile Race: 101 – 2015 Kentucky Derby
Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 110 –2016 San Diego Handicap

5) Effinex – His 4th place finish in the Whitney Stakes was a bit of a disappointment. Maybe he needs to skip a start. He finished 2nd to American Pharoah in the 2015 Breeders’ Cup Classic. For 2016, he has two wins in the Oaklawn Handicap and the Stephen Foster. Next Start: Unknown but I am guessing the Jockey Club Gold Cup race at Belmont Park on October 8th.

6) Exaggerator* – The Slopmeister. With wins in the Santa Anita Derby, the Preakness Stakes and the Haskell Invitational (shown below), Exaggerator has probably moved ahead of Nyquist as the best 3-year-0ld colt in 2016. Next Start: The Travers Stakes at Saratoga on August 27th. Then onto the Breeders’ Cup Classic on November 5th with roughly the same layoff as American Pharoah had.

Career: 13 Starts 6-3-1-1 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 3
Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 1 Start 0-1-0-0
Last 3 starts: 1st–>11th–>1st
Sire: Curlin (2007 Breeders’ Cup Classic Winner)
Trainer: Keith Desormeaux
Jockey: Kent Desormeaux
Fastest 1 1/4th Mile Time: 2:01.51 (calculated) – 2016 Kentucky Derby
Best Beyer in 1 1/4 Mile Race: 101 – 2016 Kentucky Derby
Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 103 – 2016 Santa Anita Derby

7) Beholder – Her lost to Stellar Wind in the Clement L. Hirsch Stakes was a surprise since she hadn’t lost a race in over 2 years. Her time and Beyer Speed Figure in this year’s Clement L. Hirsh was higher than last year’s. However, one big difference, she didn’t have to battle for the win in the 2015 edition where she won by 7 lengths. I think she has slipped a bit off of her 2015 form where she had the stunning performance in the 2015 TVG Pacific Classic (shown below) that put her #1 in many Breeders’ Cup Classic rankings last year. But she has been training well at Del Mar the past two weeks, so maybe she will bounce back into form. Next Start: She will defend her title in the Pacific Classic at Del Mar on August 20th.

Career: 23 Starts 17-4-0-2 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 10
Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 1 Starts 1-0-0-0
Last 3 starts: 1st–>1st–>2nd
Sire: Henny Hughes
Trainer: Richard Mandella (2003 Breeders’ Cup Classic Winning Trainer)
Jockey: Gary Stevens (2013 Breeders’ Cup Classic Winner)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 1:59.77 – 2015 Pacific Classic
Best Beyer in 1 1/4 Mile Race: 114 – 2015 Pacific Classic
Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 114 – 2015 Pacific Classic

8) Win the Space – A third place finish behind California Chrome and Dortmund in the San Diego Handicap was probably an expected result. However, I thought he ran more competitively in the Gold Cup race at Santa Anita. Perhaps he prefers 10 furlongs or the Santa Anita track surface? Or Gary Stevens as his rider? We will see soon. Next Start: The Pacific Classic at Del Mar on August 20th.

Career: 12 Starts 3-1-3-0 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 0
Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 1 Starts 0-1-0-0
Last 3 starts: 1st–>2nd–>3rd
Sire: Pulpit
Trainer: George Papaprodromou
Jockey: Gary Stevens (2013 Breeders’ Cup Classic Winner)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:00.03 (calculated) – 2016 Gold Cup at Santa Anita
Best Beyer in 1 1/4 Mile Race: 107 – 2016 Gold Cup at Santa Anita
Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 107 – 2016 Gold Cup at Santa Anita

9) Nyquist – It should be plain as day after the Haskell Invitational that Nyquist just doesn’t like wet, sloppy tracks. The 2016 Kentucky Derby winner needs a big win down the road if he wants to win the 2016 Eclipse 3 Year Old Male of the Year award. Next Start: The most recent news is that Nyquist will stay at San Luis Rey Downs through the entire month of August and is being pointed towards the Pennsylvania Derby at PARX on September 24th.

10) Hoppertunity – He finished 4th in the Gold Cup at Santa Anita. Bob Baffert admitted before the race that he wasn’t sure that he had him completely ready. Previous to this start, he finished 3rd (and just a neck from 2nd) in the Dubai World Cup. He is extremely consistent and probably would finish in the top 4 in any race no matter the talent in the field because he has never finished below 4th place in a graded stakes race. Next Start: The Pacific Classic at Del Mar on August 20th.

Career: 20 Starts 5-6-4-4 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 1
Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 4 Starts 0-1-1-2
Last 3 starts: 1st—>3rd–>4th
Sire: Any Given Saturday
Trainer: Bob Baffert (2014 & 2015 Breeders’ Cup Classic Winning Trainer)
Jockey: Flavien Prat
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:00.16 (calculated) – 2016 Gold Cup at Santa Anita
Best Beyer in 1 1/4 Mile Race: 104 – 2016 Gold Cup at Santa Anita
Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 108 – 2016 San Antonio Stakes

11) Bradester* – With his most recent win in the Monmouth Cup, Bradester now has won three races in three starts in 2016. Although he has never raced beyond 1 1/8th mile, Bradester qualified for the Breeders’ Cup Classic with his win in the Stephen Foster Handicap. He competed in the 2015 Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile and had a disappointing 9th place finish. 6 of his career 10 wins have come at the 1 1/16th mile distance. Next Start: Unknown.

12) Hard Aces – Still competitive as a 6 year-old, he won the Cougar II Handicap (shown below) a couple of weekends ago. He finished 6th in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic after qualifying with a win in the Gold Cup at Santa Anita. He is a closer and performs best when the opening fractions are fast. And he is running well this year at Santa Anita–producing a 2nd place finish in both the Santa Anita Handicap and California Stakes to go with his most recent 3rd place finish in the Gold Cup race. The 105 Beyer he received in the Gold Cup was a career best. He will throw a clunker in along the way and is not an early Vegas favorite to win The Classic but he has “hit the board” potential if the race sets up well for his closing style. Next Start: The Pacific Classic at Del Mar on August 20th.

Career: 33 Starts 9-6-5-3 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 1
Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 6 Starts 1-1-1-1
Last 3 starts: 2nd–>3rd–>1st
Sire: Hard Spun
Trainer: John Sadler
Jockey: Mario Pino
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:00.15 (calculated) – 2016 Gold Cup at Santa Anita
Best Beyer in 1 1/4 Mile Race: 105 – 2016 Gold Cup at Santa Anita
Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 105 – 2016 Gold Cup at Santa Anita

Note: Horses who have qualified for the Breeders’ Cup Classic have an asterisk next to their name.

Below are the key upcoming races with “Win and You’re In” Breeders’ Cup Classic races in bold font:

August 20th – Pacific Classic – Del Mar – 1 1/4 Mile – Purse: $1,000,000 – TVG

August 27th – Travers Stakes* – Saratoga – 1 1/4 Mile – Purse: $1,250,000 – NBC

September 3rd – Woodward Stakes – Saratoga – 1 1/8 Mile – Purse: $600,000 – NBCSN

September 24th – Pennsylvania Derby – PARX – 1 1/8 Mile – Purse: $1,000,000 – TVG

October 1st – Awesome Again Stakes – Santa Anita – 1 1/8 Mile – Purse: $300,000 – NBCSN

October 8th – Jockey Gold Cup – Belmont Park – 1 1/4 Mile – Purse: $1,000,000 – NBC

*****

November 5th – Breeders’ Cup Classic – Santa Anita – 1 1/4 Mile – Purse: $6,000,000 – NBC

* – 3 year olds only

–Michael

Whitney Stakes Preview–Another “Win and You’re In” Breeders Cup Classic race. Plus Updated 2016 Breeders’ Cup Classic Contender Rankings

Posted on August 3, 2016 by Michael J. Cox

challenge

August 3rd 2016 – Updated August 4th 2016

Below are the post-positions for the upcoming Whitney Stakes (aka Whitney Handicap) this Saturday evening at Saratoga. This is another “Win and You’re In” race for the Breeders’ Cup Classic and it will be televised on Fox Sports 2. Frosted will be the race favorite at 4/5 odds. He is well-deserving race favorite after coming off a track record and 123 Beyer Speed Figure performance in the Met Mile back in June.

Effinex will be the next betting favorite at 7/2 odds. However, note that Effinex did not run very well at Saratoga at this same distance (1 1/8th mile) last year in the Woodward Stakes where he finished 4th.

The Todd Pletcher-trained Comfort is probably the next best bet to hit the board. He has won both of his starts in 2016 at 8 1/2 furlongs (1 1/16th mile) and produced a great time of 1:40.76 and 105 Beyer Speed Figure in his last start in the State Dinner Stakes (shown below).

Noble Bird produced a 110 Beyer Speed Figure back in May in the 1 3/16th mile Pimlico Special but finished a disappointing 6th place in his next start–the Met Mile. He also had a poor performance in last year’s Whitney Handicap where he finished in last place. Upstart has been hit or miss this year in 3 starts: 1st in the Razorback Handicap, 5th in the Oaklawn Handicap and 3rd in the Met Mile.

El Kabeir has been less stellar this year with two 7th place finishes and a 4th place finish in his last start–the Stephen Foster Handicap.

The Whitney Stakes – 1 1/8th Mile – Saturday August 6th – Race #10 at Saratoga – Post-Time: 5:18 PM CST. Televised by Fox Sports 2

Post Position/Horse/Weight/Jockey/Trainer/Odds
1. El Kabeir (117) – Santana/Terranova – 20/1
2. Comfort (117) – Velazquez/Pletcher – 8/1
3. Upstart (119) – Ortiz/Violette – 10/1
4. Frosted (124) – Rosario/McLaughlin – 3/5
5. Noble Bird (124) – Leparoux/Casse – 10/1
6. Effinex (124) – Smith/Jerkens – 7/2

My Prediction: I think Frosted can be beaten, he has a 2nd and 3rd place finish at Saratoga in last year’s Jim Dandy and Travers Stakes respectively. Then he had a subpar 5th place finish earlier in the year at Meydan in the Dubai World Cup. Effinex has proven that he can rise up to the occasion and win some big races. But I just can’t bet against Frosted after that Met Mile performance. I really like Effinex, I just don’t think 1 1/8th mile and the Saratoga track is his best combination.

So here is my predicted order of finish: 1st-Frosted, 2nd-Comfort, 3rd-Effinex, 4th-Upstart, 5th-Noble Bird and 6th-El Kabeir.

Updated Top 12 Breeders’ Cup Classic Contenders

Overall, I don’t think the 2016 Kentucky Derby class has any serious threats yet to pull off a win in “The Classic” as a 3 year-old like American Pharoah did last year and Bayern the year before. An interesting stat: 3 year-olds have won the Breeders Cup Classic 9 times in 32 runnings of the race. That is only 28%. I think an older horse will win it this year. But we have a few months more to go and these young horses can make huge strides as the year goes on. Exaggerator appears to the best of this 2016 3 year-old class.

1) California Chrome – He’s undefeated in four starts in 2016. With his Dubai World Cup win in March, he became the all-time North American leader in race earnings with $12.5 million dollars. In the San Diego Handicap, California Chrome displayed a fight that we have never seen before since he has usually won with ease. He is expected to be an entry in the Breeders’ Cup Classic and the Pegasus World Cup next January. But his next start appears to be another showdown at Del Mar on August 20th in the Pacific Classic vs Dortmund.

2) Frosted – He has set two track records thus far as a 4 year old. The first came at Meydan in the 1900 meter Al Maktoum Challenge in February. His most recent came in the 124th running of the Metropolitan Handicap with a time of 1:32.73 that resulted in the highest Beyer Speed Figure (123) of his career and the highest of any thoroughbred thus far in 2016. So now the question becomes, should he be entered in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile or The Classic? He was always viewed as a horse who liked distance and never a “miler” prior to his stunning performance in the Met Mile. His next start will be in this Satuerday’s Whitney Stakes at Saratoga on August 6th.

Career: 16 Starts 5-6-1-2 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 2
Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 4 Starts 0-0-1-1
Last 3 starts: 1st–>5th–>1st
Sire: Tapit
Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin (2006 Breeders’ Cup Classic Winning Trainer)
Jockey: William Buick
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:02.05 (calculated) – 2015 Travers Stakes
Best Beyer in 1 1/4 Mile Race: 103 – 2014 Breeders’ Cup Classic
Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 123 – 2016 Metropolitan Handicap

3) Melatonin* – The surprise winner of the 2016 Santa Anita Handicap. He proved his Big ‘Cap performance was no fluke by finishing 2nd behind Effinex in the Oaklawn Handicap and completing the Big ‘Cap-Gold Cup Double. His win in the Gold Cup at Santa Anita assures him a spot in this year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic. He is trained by David Hofmans who won the Breeders’ Cup Classic in 1996 with Alphabet Soup. His next start is undetermined since he has battled a persistent illness but it appears that he is being targeted for the Awesome Again Stakes on October 1st.

Career: 13 Starts 5-3-3-1 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 2
Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 2 Starts 2-0-0-0
Last 3 starts: 1st–>2nd–>1st
Sire: Kodiak Kowboy
Trainer: David Hofmans (1996 Breeders’ Cup Classic Winning Trainer)
Jockey: Joe Talamo
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 1:59.79 – 2016 Gold Cup at Santa Anita
Best Beyer in 1 1/4 Mile Race: 109 – 2016 Gold Cup at Santa Anita
Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 109 – 2016 Gold Cup at Santa Anita

4) Effinex – He finished 2nd to American Pharoah in the 2015 Breeders’ Cup Classic. For 2016, he has a 3rd place finish in the Santa Anita Derby, a win in the Oaklawn Handicap, a head-scratching 6th place finish in the Stephen Foster but bounced back with a big win in the Suburban Handicap (shown below). His next start will be this Saturday’s Whitney Stakes August 6th.

Career: 24 Starts 9-2-4-3 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 1

Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 7 Starts 3-1-2-1
Last 3 starts: 1st–>6th–>1st
Sire: Mineshaft
Trainer: Jimmy Jerkens
Jockey: Mike Smith (1997, 2009, 2011 Breeders’ Cup Classic Winner)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:01.04 – 2016 Suburban Handicap
Best Beyer in 1 1/4 Mile Race: 112 – 2015 Breeders’ Cup Classic
Career Best Beyer Speed: 112 – 2015 Breeders’ Cup Classic

5) Dortmund – Despite Dortmund’s impressive battle with the #1 ranked horse in the world in the San Diego Handicap, he still needs to prove himself beyond 9 furlongs. He has the pedigree for distance. His sire Big Brown won the 2008 Kentucky Derby. However, Dortmund has only raced once at the Classic distance of a miler and a quarter. That came in the 2015 Kentucky Derby where he finished 3rd behind American Pharoah and Firing Line. His next start may be a rematch vs California Chrome in the Pacific Classic at Del Mar August 20th.

Career: 11 Starts 8-1-1-1 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 2
Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 1 Starts 0-0-1-0
Last 3 starts: 1st—>1st–>2nd
Sire: Big Brown
Trainer: Bob Baffert (2014 & 2015 Breeders’ Cup Classic Winning Trainer)
Jockey: Gary Stevens (2013 Breeders’ Cup Classic Winner)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:03.50 (calculated) – 2015 Kentucky Derby
Best Beyer in 1 1/4 Mile Race: 101 – 2015 Kentucky Derby
Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 110 –2016 San Diego Handicap

6) Exaggerator* – The Slopmeister! With wins in the Santa Anita Derby, the Preakness Stakes and the Haskell Invitational (shown below), Exaggerator has probably moved ahead of Nyquist as the best 3-year-0ld colt in 2016. His future plans appear to be the Travers Stakes on August 27th and then onto the Breeders’ Cup Classic on November 5th with roughly the same layoff as American Pharoah had. I think this horse’s future is very bright and would love to see him entered into a high profile turf race.

7) Beholder – Her lost to Stellar Wind in the Clement L. Hirsch Stakes was surprising as she hadn’t lost a race since June 2014. Maybe she has slipped a bit from her 2015 form? Her time and Beyer Speed Figure this year was higher in the Clement L. Hirsch than last year. Then she had the stunning performance in the 2015 TVG Pacific Classic (shown below) that put her #1 in many Breeders’ Cup Classic rankings last year. Her entry into this year’s TVG Pacific Classic is now questionable according to recent reports.

Career: 23 Starts 17-4-0-2 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 10

Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 1 Starts 1-0-0-0
Last 3 starts: 1st–>1st–>2nd
Sire: Henny Hughes
Trainer: Richard Mandella (2003 Breeders’ Cup Classic Winning Trainer)
Jockey: Gary Stevens (2013 Breeders’ Cup Classic Winner)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 1:59.77 – 2015 Pacific Classic
Best Beyer in 1 1/4 Mile Race: 114 – 2015 Pacific Classic
Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 114 – 2015 Pacific Classic

8) Win the Space – A third place finish behind California Chrome and Dortmund in the San Diego Handicap was probably par for the course but I thought he ran a better in the Gold Cup race at Santa Anita. No word yet on where his next start will come but I imagine it will be at Santa Anita or Del Mar.

10) Hoppertunity – He finished 4th in the Gold Cup at Santa Anita. Bob Baffert admitted before the race that he wasn’t sure that he had him completely ready. Previous to this start, he finished 3rd (and just a neck from 2nd) in the Dubai World Cup. He is extremely consistent and probably would finish in the top 4 in any race no matter the talent in the field because he has never finished below 4th place in a graded stakes race. He was pegged to start in either the San Diego or Cougar II Handicap races at Del Mar a few weekends ago but spiked a fever and was scratched from both races.

11) Bradester* – With his most recent win in the Monmouth Cup, Bradester now has won three races in three starts in 2016. Although he has never raced beyond 1 1/8th mile, Bradester qualified for the Breeders’ Cup Classic with his win in the Stephen Foster Handicap. He competed in the 2015 Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile and had a disappointing 9th place finish. 6 of his career 10 wins have come at the 1 1/16th mile distance. So one wonders if he is better suited to for the 1 1/8th mile Pegasus World Cup than the Breeders’ Cup Classic.

Below are the key upcoming races with “Win and You’re In” Breeders’ Cup Classic races in bold font:

August 6th – Whitney Handicap – Saratoga – 1 1/4 Mile – Purse: $1,250,000 – Fox Sports 2

August 20th – Pacific Classic – Del Mar – 1 1/4 Mile – Purse: $1,000,000 – TVG

August 27th – Travers Stakes* – Saratoga – 1 1/4 Mile – Purse: $1,250,000 – NBC

September 3rd – Woodward Stakes – Saratoga – 1 1/8 Mile – Purse: $600,000 – NBCSN

October 1st – Awesome Again Stakes – Santa Anita – 1 1/8 Mile – Purse: $300,000 – NBCSN

October 8th – Jockey Gold Cup – Belmont Park – 1 1/4 Mile – Purse: $1,000,000 – NBC

*****

November 5th – Breeders’ Cup Classic – Santa Anita – 1 1/4 Mile – Purse: $6,000,000 – NBC

* – 3 year olds only

–Michael

Mike's Derby Picks

The Road to the Kentucky Derby and Breeders' Cup Classic

Month: August 2016

Arrogate dominates the Travers Stakes with a new track record. Updated 2016 Breeders’ Cup Classic Contender Rankings

2016 Travers Stakes Preview – Will Exaggerator prevail at the Graveyard of Champions?

California Chrome shines in the Pacific Classic. Songbird makes it 10 in a row. Where do they rank among the greatest thoroughbreds of all-time?

2016 Pacific Classic Preview – California Chrome vs. Beholder vs. Dortmund. Updated Breeders Cup Classic Contender Rankings

Whitney Stakes Preview–Another “Win and You’re In” Breeders Cup Classic race. Plus Updated 2016 Breeders’ Cup Classic Contender Rankings