August 3rd 2016 – Updated August 4th 2016
Below are the post-positions for the upcoming Whitney Stakes (aka Whitney Handicap) this Saturday evening at Saratoga. This is another “Win and You’re In” race for the Breeders’ Cup Classic and it will be televised on Fox Sports 2. Frosted will be the race favorite at 4/5 odds. He is well-deserving race favorite after coming off a track record and 123 Beyer Speed Figure performance in the Met Mile back in June.
Effinex will be the next betting favorite at 7/2 odds. However, note that Effinex did not run very well at Saratoga at this same distance (1 1/8th mile) last year in the Woodward Stakes where he finished 4th.
The Todd Pletcher-trained Comfort is probably the next best bet to hit the board. He has won both of his starts in 2016 at 8 1/2 furlongs (1 1/16th mile) and produced a great time of 1:40.76 and 105 Beyer Speed Figure in his last start in the State Dinner Stakes (shown below).
Noble Bird produced a 110 Beyer Speed Figure back in May in the 1 3/16th mile Pimlico Special but finished a disappointing 6th place in his next start–the Met Mile. He also had a poor performance in last year’s Whitney Handicap where he finished in last place. Upstart has been hit or miss this year in 3 starts: 1st in the Razorback Handicap, 5th in the Oaklawn Handicap and 3rd in the Met Mile.
El Kabeir has been less stellar this year with two 7th place finishes and a 4th place finish in his last start–the Stephen Foster Handicap.
The Whitney Stakes – 1 1/8th Mile – Saturday August 6th – Race #10 at Saratoga – Post-Time: 5:18 PM CST. Televised by Fox Sports 2
Post Position/Horse/Weight/Jockey/Trainer/Odds
1. El Kabeir (117) – Santana/Terranova – 20/1
2. Comfort (117) – Velazquez/Pletcher – 8/1
3. Upstart (119) – Ortiz/Violette – 10/1
4. Frosted (124) – Rosario/McLaughlin – 3/5
5. Noble Bird (124) – Leparoux/Casse – 10/1
6. Effinex (124) – Smith/Jerkens – 7/2
My Prediction: I think Frosted can be beaten, he has a 2nd and 3rd place finish at Saratoga in last year’s Jim Dandy and Travers Stakes respectively. Then he had a subpar 5th place finish earlier in the year at Meydan in the Dubai World Cup. Effinex has proven that he can rise up to the occasion and win some big races. But I just can’t bet against Frosted after that Met Mile performance. I really like Effinex, I just don’t think 1 1/8th mile and the Saratoga track is his best combination.
So here is my predicted order of finish: 1st-Frosted, 2nd-Comfort, 3rd-Effinex, 4th-Upstart, 5th-Noble Bird and 6th-El Kabeir.
Updated Top 12 Breeders’ Cup Classic Contenders
Overall, I don’t think the 2016 Kentucky Derby class has any serious threats yet to pull off a win in “The Classic” as a 3 year-old like American Pharoah did last year and Bayern the year before. An interesting stat: 3 year-olds have won the Breeders Cup Classic 9 times in 32 runnings of the race. That is only 28%. I think an older horse will win it this year. But we have a few months more to go and these young horses can make huge strides as the year goes on. Exaggerator appears to the best of this 2016 3 year-old class.
1) California Chrome – He’s undefeated in four starts in 2016. With his Dubai World Cup win in March, he became the all-time North American leader in race earnings with $12.5 million dollars. In the San Diego Handicap, California Chrome displayed a fight that we have never seen before since he has usually won with ease. He is expected to be an entry in the Breeders’ Cup Classic and the Pegasus World Cup next January. But his next start appears to be another showdown at Del Mar on August 20th in the Pacific Classic vs Dortmund.
Career: 22 Starts 13-3-1-1 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 5
Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 5 Starts 3-1-1-0
Last 3 starts: 1st–>1st–>1st
Sire: Lucky Pulpit
Trainer: Art Sherman
Jockey: Victor Espinosa (2015 Breeders’ Cup Classic Winner)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 1:59.93 (calculated) – 2014 Breeders’ Cup Classic
Best Beyer in 1 1/4 Mile Race: 113 – 2014 Breeders’ Cup Classic
Career Beyer Speed Figure: 113 – 2014 Breeders’ Cup Classic
2) Frosted – He has set two track records thus far as a 4 year old. The first came at Meydan in the 1900 meter Al Maktoum Challenge in February. His most recent came in the 124th running of the Metropolitan Handicap with a time of 1:32.73 that resulted in the highest Beyer Speed Figure (123) of his career and the highest of any thoroughbred thus far in 2016. So now the question becomes, should he be entered in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile or The Classic? He was always viewed as a horse who liked distance and never a “miler” prior to his stunning performance in the Met Mile. His next start will be in this Satuerday’s Whitney Stakes at Saratoga on August 6th.
Career: 16 Starts 5-6-1-2 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 2
Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 4 Starts 0-0-1-1
Last 3 starts: 1st–>5th–>1st
Sire: Tapit
Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin (2006 Breeders’ Cup Classic Winning Trainer)
Jockey: William Buick
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:02.05 (calculated) – 2015 Travers Stakes
Best Beyer in 1 1/4 Mile Race: 103 – 2014 Breeders’ Cup Classic
Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 123 – 2016 Metropolitan Handicap
3) Melatonin* – The surprise winner of the 2016 Santa Anita Handicap. He proved his Big ‘Cap performance was no fluke by finishing 2nd behind Effinex in the Oaklawn Handicap and completing the Big ‘Cap-Gold Cup Double. His win in the Gold Cup at Santa Anita assures him a spot in this year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic. He is trained by David Hofmans who won the Breeders’ Cup Classic in 1996 with Alphabet Soup. His next start is undetermined since he has battled a persistent illness but it appears that he is being targeted for the Awesome Again Stakes on October 1st.
Career: 13 Starts 5-3-3-1 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 2
Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 2 Starts 2-0-0-0
Last 3 starts: 1st–>2nd–>1st
Sire: Kodiak Kowboy
Trainer: David Hofmans (1996 Breeders’ Cup Classic Winning Trainer)
Jockey: Joe Talamo
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 1:59.79 – 2016 Gold Cup at Santa Anita
Best Beyer in 1 1/4 Mile Race: 109 – 2016 Gold Cup at Santa Anita
Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 109 – 2016 Gold Cup at Santa Anita
4) Effinex – He finished 2nd to American Pharoah in the 2015 Breeders’ Cup Classic. For 2016, he has a 3rd place finish in the Santa Anita Derby, a win in the Oaklawn Handicap, a head-scratching 6th place finish in the Stephen Foster but bounced back with a big win in the Suburban Handicap (shown below). His next start will be this Saturday’s Whitney Stakes August 6th.
Career: 24 Starts 9-2-4-3 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 1
Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 7 Starts 3-1-2-1
Last 3 starts: 1st–>6th–>1st
Sire: Mineshaft
Trainer: Jimmy Jerkens
Jockey: Mike Smith (1997, 2009, 2011 Breeders’ Cup Classic Winner)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:01.04 – 2016 Suburban Handicap
Best Beyer in 1 1/4 Mile Race: 112 – 2015 Breeders’ Cup Classic
Career Best Beyer Speed: 112 – 2015 Breeders’ Cup Classic
5) Dortmund – Despite Dortmund’s impressive battle with the #1 ranked horse in the world in the San Diego Handicap, he still needs to prove himself beyond 9 furlongs. He has the pedigree for distance. His sire Big Brown won the 2008 Kentucky Derby. However, Dortmund has only raced once at the Classic distance of a miler and a quarter. That came in the 2015 Kentucky Derby where he finished 3rd behind American Pharoah and Firing Line. His next start may be a rematch vs California Chrome in the Pacific Classic at Del Mar August 20th.
Career: 11 Starts 8-1-1-1 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 2
Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 1 Starts 0-0-1-0
Last 3 starts: 1st—>1st–>2nd
Sire: Big Brown
Trainer: Bob Baffert (2014 & 2015 Breeders’ Cup Classic Winning Trainer)
Jockey: Gary Stevens (2013 Breeders’ Cup Classic Winner)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:03.50 (calculated) – 2015 Kentucky Derby
Best Beyer in 1 1/4 Mile Race: 101 – 2015 Kentucky Derby
Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 110 –2016 San Diego Handicap
6) Exaggerator* – The Slopmeister! With wins in the Santa Anita Derby, the Preakness Stakes and the Haskell Invitational (shown below), Exaggerator has probably moved ahead of Nyquist as the best 3-year-0ld colt in 2016. His future plans appear to be the Travers Stakes on August 27th and then onto the Breeders’ Cup Classic on November 5th with roughly the same layoff as American Pharoah had. I think this horse’s future is very bright and would love to see him entered into a high profile turf race.
Career: 13 Starts 6-3-1-1 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 3
Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 1 Start 0-1-0-0
Last 3 starts: 1st–>11th–>1st
Sire: Curlin (2007 Breeders’ Cup Classic Winner)
Trainer: Keith Desormeaux
Jockey: Kent Desormeaux
Fastest 1 1/4th Mile Time: 2:01.51 (calculated) – 2016 Kentucky Derby
Best Beyer in 1 1/4 Mile Race: 101 – 2016 Kentucky Derby
Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 103 – 2016 Santa Anita Derby
7) Beholder – Her lost to Stellar Wind in the Clement L. Hirsch Stakes was surprising as she hadn’t lost a race since June 2014. Maybe she has slipped a bit from her 2015 form? Her time and Beyer Speed Figure this year was higher in the Clement L. Hirsch than last year. Then she had the stunning performance in the 2015 TVG Pacific Classic (shown below) that put her #1 in many Breeders’ Cup Classic rankings last year. Her entry into this year’s TVG Pacific Classic is now questionable according to recent reports.
Career: 23 Starts 17-4-0-2 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 10
Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 1 Starts 1-0-0-0
Last 3 starts: 1st–>1st–>2nd
Sire: Henny Hughes
Trainer: Richard Mandella (2003 Breeders’ Cup Classic Winning Trainer)
Jockey: Gary Stevens (2013 Breeders’ Cup Classic Winner)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 1:59.77 – 2015 Pacific Classic
Best Beyer in 1 1/4 Mile Race: 114 – 2015 Pacific Classic
Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 114 – 2015 Pacific Classic
8) Win the Space – A third place finish behind California Chrome and Dortmund in the San Diego Handicap was probably par for the course but I thought he ran a better in the Gold Cup race at Santa Anita. No word yet on where his next start will come but I imagine it will be at Santa Anita or Del Mar.
Career: 12 Starts 3-1-3-0 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 0
Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 1 Starts 0-1-0-0
Last 3 starts: 1st–>2nd–>3rd
Sire: Pulpit
Trainer: George Papaprodromou
Jockey: Gary Stevens (2013 Breeders’ Cup Classic Winner)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:00.03 (calculated) – 2016 Gold Cup at Santa Anita
Best Beyer in 1 1/4 Mile Race: 107 – 2016 Gold Cup at Santa Anita
Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 107 – 2016 Gold Cup at Santa Anita
9) Nyquist – It should be plain as day after the Haskell Invitational that Nyquist just doesn’t like wet, sloppy tracks. The 2016 Kentucky Derby winner needs a big win down the road if he wants to win the 2016 Eclipse 3 Year Old Male of the Year award.
Career: 10 Starts 8-0-1-1 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 5
Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 1 Start 1-0-0-0
Last 3 starts: 1st–>3rd–>4th
Sire: Uncle Mo
Trainer: Doug O’Neill
Jockey: Mario Gutierrez
Fastest 1 1/4th Mile Time: 2:01.31 – 2016 Kentucky Derby
Best Beyer in 1 1/4 Mile Race: 103 – 2016 Kentucky Derby
Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 103 – 2016 Kentucky Derby
10) Hoppertunity – He finished 4th in the Gold Cup at Santa Anita. Bob Baffert admitted before the race that he wasn’t sure that he had him completely ready. Previous to this start, he finished 3rd (and just a neck from 2nd) in the Dubai World Cup. He is extremely consistent and probably would finish in the top 4 in any race no matter the talent in the field because he has never finished below 4th place in a graded stakes race. He was pegged to start in either the San Diego or Cougar II Handicap races at Del Mar a few weekends ago but spiked a fever and was scratched from both races.
Career: 20 Starts 5-6-4-4 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 1
Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 4 Starts 0-1-1-2
Last 3 starts: 1st—>3rd–>4th
Sire: Any Given Saturday
Trainer: Bob Baffert (2014 & 2015 Breeders’ Cup Classic Winning Trainer)
Jockey: Flavien Prat
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:00.16 (calculated) – 2016 Gold Cup at Santa Anita
Best Beyer in 1 1/4 Mile Race: 104 – 2016 Gold Cup at Santa Anita
Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 108 – 2016 San Antonio Stakes
11) Bradester* – With his most recent win in the Monmouth Cup, Bradester now has won three races in three starts in 2016. Although he has never raced beyond 1 1/8th mile, Bradester qualified for the Breeders’ Cup Classic with his win in the Stephen Foster Handicap. He competed in the 2015 Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile and had a disappointing 9th place finish. 6 of his career 10 wins have come at the 1 1/16th mile distance. So one wonders if he is better suited to for the 1 1/8th mile Pegasus World Cup than the Breeders’ Cup Classic.
Career: 24 Starts 10-6-2-1 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 1
Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 0 Starts 0-0-0-0
Last 3 starts: 1st—>1st–>1st
Sire: Lion Heart
Trainer: Eddie Kenneally
Jockey: Joe Bravo
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: N/A
Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 109 – 2015 Salvator Mile Stakes
12) Hard Aces – Still competitive as a 6 year-old, he won the Cougar II Handicap (shown below) a couple of weekends ago. He finished 6th in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic after qualifying with a win in the Gold Cup at Santa Anita. He is a closer and performs best when the opening fractions are fast. And he is running well this year at Santa Anita–producing a 2nd place finish in both the Santa Anita Handicap and California Stakes to go with his most recent 3rd place finish in the Gold Cup race. The 105 Beyer he received in the Gold Cup was a career best. He will throw a clunker in along the way and is not an early Vegas favorite to win The Classic but he has “hit the board” potential if the race sets up well for his closing style.
Career: 33 Starts 9-6-5-3 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 1
Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 6 Starts 1-1-1-1
Last 3 starts: 2nd–>3rd–>1st
Sire: Hard Spun
Trainer: John Sadler
Jockey: Mario Pino
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:00.15 (calculated) – 2016 Gold Cup at Santa Anita
Best Beyer in 1 1/4 Mile Race: 105 – 2016 Gold Cup at Santa Anita
Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 105 – 2016 Gold Cup at Santa Anita
Below are the key upcoming races with “Win and You’re In” Breeders’ Cup Classic races in bold font:
November 5th – Breeders’ Cup Classic – Santa Anita – 1 1/4 Mile – Purse: $6,000,000 – NBC
* – 3 year olds only
–Michael
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