2016 Breeders Cup Classic Post-Positions, Odds and Analysis

Posted on October 31, 2016 by Michael J. Cox

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October 31st 2016 – Updated November 5th 2016

Below are the post-positions and morning line odds for the 2016 Breeders Cup Classic. Post-time for the race will be 7:35 PM CST and it will be aired on NBC. Found and Highland Reel, who were cross-entered into both the Breeders Cup Turf and Breeders Cup Classic, will opt for the Turf race. Nyquist was also entered in The Classic but developed a puffy ankle after an October 27th workout and was scratched. Consequently, he has been retired. Gun Runner was cross-entered in both the Breeders Cup Dirt Mile and the Breeders Cup Classic but will opt for the Dirt Mile. Shaman Ghost has been scratched.

Overall, I would recommend a 4-10 Boxed Exacta as I think the race will come down to California Chrome and Arrogate. Arrogate drew the outside post and will have to come across traffic. If Arrogate had an inside post and Chrome and outside post, I would pick Arrogate to win. Now I think it will be a toss-up but California Chrome will have to have the lead at the three-quarters pole if he expects to win.

2016 Breeders’ Cup Classic Post-Positions & Odds

1) Effinex (15/1) – He finished 2nd to Hoppertunity in the Jockey Club Gold Cup race. He also finished 2nd to American Pharoah in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic. For 2016, it is very clear that he has slipped a bit, only capturing wins in the Oaklawn and Suburban Handicaps. The Jimmy Jerkens-trained 5 year old can be enigmatic at times and prone to get off to bad starts (see 2016 Stephen Foster Handicap). But then he can bounce back with a nice performance like he had in the Suburban Handicap in July. Note that Effinex has never finished below 4th in a 10 furlong (1 1/4th mile) race. Jockey Mike Smith seems to get the best out of him but Smith will ride Arrogate in The Classic.

Career: 26 Starts 9-3-4-4 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 1
Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 8 Starts 3-2-2-1
Last 3 starts: 1st–>4th–>1st Average Beyer Speed Figure: 103.3
Sire: Mineshaft
Trainer: Jimmy Jerkens
Jockey: Flavian Prat
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:00.76 (calculated) – 2016 Jockey Club Gold Cup
Best Beyer Speed Figure in 1 1/4 Mile Race: 112 – 2015 Breeders’ Cup Classic
Best Beyer Speed Figure in 2016: 106 – 2016 Oaklawn Handicap
Career Best Beyer Speed: 112 – 2015 Breeders’ Cup Classic

2) Frosted* (5/1) – I feel that the added rest after his disappointing Woodward performance will do him good. I still think he would be better suited for the Dirt Mile but that will be a tough race as well. He set the track record in the 124th running of the Metropolitan Handicap with a time of 1:32.73 that resulted in the highest Beyer Speed Figure (123) of his career and the highest of any thoroughbred thus far in 2016. As he has stretched out past a mile, his Beyer Speed Figures have declined (107 in the Whitney Stakes and 105 in the Woodward Stakes). But he got off to a bad start in the Woodward Stakes and that may have cost him a win.

Career: 18 Starts 6-6-2-2 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 3
Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 4 Starts 0-0-1-1
Last 3 starts: 1st–>1st–>3rd Average Beyer Speed Figure: 111.7
Sire: Tapit
Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin (2006 Breeders’ Cup Classic Winning Trainer)
Jockey: Joel Rosario
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:02.05 (calculated) – 2015 Travers Stakes
Best Beyer in 1 1/4 Mile Race: 103 – 2014 Breeders’ Cup Classic
Best Beyer Speed Figure in 2016: 123 – 2016 Metropolitan Handicap
Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 123 – 2016 Metropolitan Handicap

3) Keen Ice (20/1) – The only living horse to have beaten a Triple Crown Champion. He shocked a nation by beating American Pharoah in last year’s Travers Stakes (shown below). He also finished 4th in the 2015 Breeders Cup Classic. However, this year will be a taller order. Keen Ice is coming back from a long layoff due to injury and he finished 3rd in a mile allowance race at Belmont on October 7th.

Career: 17 Starts 2-1-4-4 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 1
Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 5 Start 1-0-0-1
Last 3 starts: 7th–>8th–>3rd
Sire: Uncle Mo
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Jockey: Javier Castellano ( 2004 Breeders’ Cup Classic Winner)
Fastest 1 1/4th Mile Time: 2:01.57 – 2015 Travers Stakes
Best Beyer in 1 1/4 Mile Race: 106 –2015 Travers Stakes
Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 106 –2015 Travers Stakes

4) California Chrome* (1/1) – He’s now undefeated in six starts in 2016. The all-time North American leader in race earnings with $13.4 million dollars. He is currently ranked #1 in Longines World’s Best Racehorse Rankings (SEE). His win in the Pacific Classic was arguably the best performance of his career.

Career: 24 Starts 15-3-1-1 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 7
Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 6 Starts 4-1-1-0
Last 3 starts: 1st–>1st–>1st Average Beyer Speed Figure: 112
Sire: Lucky Pulpit
Trainer: Art Sherman
Jockey: Victor Espinosa (2015 Breeders’ Cup Classic Winner)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 1:59.93 (calculated) – 2014 Breeders’ Cup Classic
Best Beyer in 1 1/4 Mile Race: 113 – 2014 Breeders’ Cup Classic & 2016 Pacific Classic
Best Beyer Speed Figure in 2016: 113 – 2016 Pacific Classic
Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 113 – 2014 Breeders’ Cup Classic & 2016 Pacific Classic

5) Win the Space (30/1) – A third place finish behind California Chrome and Dortmund in the San Diego Handicap was probably par for the course but I thought he ran a better in the Gold Cup race at Santa Anita.

Career: 14 Starts 3-1-4-0 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 0
Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 4 Starts 0-1-0-0
Last 3 starts: 3rd–>DNF–>3rd Average Beyer Speed Figure: ?
Sire:Pulpit
Trainer: George Papaprodromou
Jockey: Gary Stevens (2013 Breeders’ Cup Classic Winner)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:00.03 (calculated) – 2016 Gold Cup at Santa Anita
Best Beyer in 1 1/4 Mile Race: 107 – 2016 Gold Cup at Santa Anita
Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 107 – 2016 Gold Cup at Santa Anita

6) Melatonin* (12/1) – The Rodney Dangerfield of thoroughbreds because he gets no respect. At the Classic distance of a miler and a quarter, he is undefeated in two starts and has an average Beyer Speed Figure of 108. The surprise winner of the 2016 Santa Anita Handicap. He proved his Big ‘Cap performance was no fluke by finishing 2nd behind Effinex in the Oaklawn Handicap and completing the Big ‘Cap-Gold Cup Double. His win in the Gold Cup at Santa Anita assures him a spot in this year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic. He is trained by David Hofmans who won the Breeders’ Cup Classic in 1996 with Alphabet Soup. He was originally pegged to start in the Pacific Classic but he wasn’t entered due to coming off a persistent illness. However, he is training very well currently.

Career: 13 Starts 5-3-3-1 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 2
Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 2 Starts 2-0-0-0
Last 3 starts: 1st–>2nd–>1st Average Beyer Speed Figure: 106.7
Sire: Kodiak Kowboy
Trainer: David Hofmans (1996 Breeders’ Cup Classic Winning Trainer)
Jockey: Joe Talamo
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 1:59.79 – 2016 Gold Cup at Santa Anita
Best Beyer Speed Figure in 1 1/4 Mile Race: 109 – 2016 Gold Cup at Santa Anita
Best Beyer Speed Figure in 2016: 109 – 2016 Gold Cup at Santa Anita
Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 109 – 2016 Gold Cup at Santa Anita

7) War Story (30/1) – Although he was given 30/1 morning line odds, it really should have been 50/1. War Story has never finished in the Top 4 in a 10 furlong race and has yet to win a Grade 1 race. He finished 16th in the 2015 Kentucky Derby and 7th in the 2016 Pacific Classic. He most recent performance, a 2nd place finish in the Pa Derby Champion Stakes, is shown below.

Career: 14 Starts 3-3-1-1 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 0
Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 2 Starts 0-0-0-0
Last 3 starts: 1st–>7th–>2nd
Sire: Northern Afleet
Trainer: Mario Serey Jr.
Jockey: Scott Speith
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:03.77 (calculated) – 2016 Pacific Classic
Best Beyer in 1 1/4 Mile Race: Unknown
Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 92 – Thistletown Allowance Race 7/30/16

8) ~~Shaman Ghost (20/1)~~ – After rewatching his Woodward Stakes performance and also learning that had a post-race cough after his disappointing 5th place finish in the Suburban Handicap, I am once again a believer in this Jimmy Jerkens-trained son of Ghostzapper. When you watch the Woodward Stakes race (shown below), Shaman Ghost ran one helluva race. He displayed a willingness to fight for a win and also an ability to go wide and snake through traffic. This is a very talented 4 year-old with a bright future.

Career: 12 Starts 6-1-1-1 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 1
Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 2 Starts 1-0-0-0
Last 3 starts: 1st–>5th–>1st Average Beyer Speed Figure: 99.7
Sire: Ghostzapper
Trainer: Jimmy Jerkens
Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr/
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:02.12 – 2016 Suburban Handicap
Best Beyer Speed Figure in 1 1/4 Mile Race: ? – 2016 Suburban Handicap
Best Beyer Speed Figure in 2016: 106 – 2016 Woodward Stakes
Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 106 – 2016 Woodward Stakes

9) Hoppertunity* (15/1) – A surprise winner of the Jockey Gold Cup race. A well earned victory for a horse who has been the bridesmaid way too often. He has finished 4th or better in every graded stakes race in his career. Hopps is extremely consistent and you get the feeling that he would probably finish in the top 4 in any race no matter the talent in the field. This is why I am ranking him 4th in these rankings. Some how, he always finds a way to finish in the Superfecta.

Career: 22 Starts 6-6-4-5 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 2
Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 6 Starts 1-1-1-3
Last 3 starts: 4th–>4th–>1st Average Beyer Speed Figure: 103.3
Sire: Any Given Saturday
Trainer: Bob Baffert (2014 & 2015 Breeders’ Cup Classic Winning Trainer)
Jockey: John Velazquez
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:00.16 (calculated) – 2016 Gold Cup at Santa Anita
Best Beyer in 1 1/4 Mile Race: 105 – 2016 Gold Cup at Santa Anita
Best Beyer Speed Figure in 2016: 105 – 2016 Gold Cup at Santa Anita
Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 105 – 2016 San Antonio Stakes

10) Arrogate (5/2) – There is no doubt that Bob Baffert has a star colt in Arrogate who set a Travers Stakes and Saratoga track record (1:59.36) for a 1 1/4 mile race. His final quarter mile fraction was 23.84. American Pharoah’s final fraction in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic was 24.60. Here are the best career final fractions of his competition in mile and a quarter races: California Chrome 24.44 2016 Pacific Classic, Melatonin 24.27 2016 Gold Cup race at Santa Anita, Beholder 24.65 2015 Pacific Classic. Arrogate will get a 4 pound advantage over California Chrome and older horses in the Breeders’ Cup Classic.

Career: 5 Starts 4-0-1-0 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 1
Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 1 Starts 1-0-0-0
Last 3 starts: 1st–>1st–>1st Average Beyer Speed Figure: 108
Sire: Unbridled’s Song
Trainer: Bob Baffert (2014 & 2015 Breeders’ Cup Classic Winning Trainer)
Jockey: Mike Smith (1997, 2009 & 2011 Breeders’ Cup Classic Winner)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 1:59.36 – 2016 Travers Stakes
Best Beyer Speed Figure in 1 1/4 Mile Race: 122 – 2016 Travers Stakes
Best Beyer Speed Figure in 2016: 122 – 2016 Travers Stakes
Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 122 –2016 Travers Stakes

–Michael

2016 Breeders Cup Classic Pre-Entries and Analysis. Arrogate a serious threat to California Chrome

Posted on October 28, 2016 by Michael J. Cox

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Updated October 31st 2016

We are now five days away from the 2016 Breeders’ Cup Classic. Below are post-position and morning line odds for this year’s Classic and how I would rank them. This is a very talented field. Nyquist was pre-entered for The Classic but he will be scratched due to having a puffy ankle after a workout October 27th. He has been subsequently been retired. Gunner Runner will opt for the Breeders Cup Dirt Mile. Found and Highland Reel will opt for the Breeders Cup Turf race.

Although California Chrome is the morning line even-money favorite, don’t discount Arrogate. Since all the money will be on Chrome, I would highly recommend a Boxed Exacta including both horses. Arrogate’s jockey Mike Smith has won The Classic three times, the most of any active jockey. His trainer Bob Baffert has won The Classic twice. They will be a formidable foe for California Chrome because Arrogate has demonstrated that he has a higher closing speed. Below are California Chrome and Arrogate’s final fractions from their last 4 US races. I have included their weights for each race in parenthesis.

California Chrome

Awesome Again Stakes – 10/1/16 (125) – 38.79 sec in final 3 furlongs = 34.08 mph
Pacific Classic – 8/20/16 (124) – 24.17 sec in final 2 furlongs = 37.24 mph, 48.91 sec in final 4 furlongs = 36.80 mph
San Diego Handicap – 7/23/16 ( 126) – 30.31 sec in final 2 1/2 furlongs = 37.12 mph
San Pasqual Stakes – 1/9/16 (119) – 30.37 sec in final 2 1/2 furlongs = 37.0 mph

Arrogate

Travers Stakes – 8/27/16 (126) – 23.84 sec in final 2 furlongs = 37.75 mph, 48.51 sec in final 4 furlongs = 37.11 mph

Del Mar – 8/4/16 (117) – 29.4 sec in final 2 1/2 furlongs = 38.27 mph

Santa Anita – 6/24/16 (118) – 30.42 sec in final 2 1/2 furlongs = 36.98 mph

Santa Anita MSW- 6/5/16 (120) – 29.87 sec in final 2 1/2 furlongs = 37.66 mph

2016 Breeders’ Cup Classic Entries

1) California Chrome* (1/1) – He’s now undefeated in six starts in 2016. The all-time North American leader in race earnings with $13.4 million dollars. He is currently ranked #1 in Longines World’s Best Racehorse Rankings (SEE). His win in the Pacific Classic was arguably the best performance of his career. Next Start: The Breeders’ Cup Classic at Santa Anita Park on Saturday November 5th.

2) Arrogate (5/2) – There is no doubt that Bob Baffert has a star colt in Arrogate who set a Travers Stakes and Saratoga track record (1:59.36) for a 1 1/4 mile race. His final quarter mile fraction was 23.84. American Pharoah’s final fraction in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic was 24.60. Here are the best career final fractions of his competition in mile and a quarter races: California Chrome 24.44 2016 Pacific Classic, Melatonin 24.27 2016 Gold Cup race at Santa Anita, Beholder 24.65 2015 Pacific Classic. Arrogate will get a 4 pound advantage over California Chrome and older horses in the Breeders’ Cup Classic. I just need more than one great performance to elevate him higher over Chrome who is undefeated in 2016. Next Start: The Breeders’ Cup Classic at Santa Anita Park on Saturday November 5th.

3) Melatonin* (12/1) – The Rodney Dangerfield of thoroughbreds because he gets no respect. At the Classic distance of a miler and a quarter, he is undefeated in two starts and has an average Beyer Speed Figure of 108. The surprise winner of the 2016 Santa Anita Handicap. He proved his Big ‘Cap performance was no fluke by finishing 2nd behind Effinex in the Oaklawn Handicap and completing the Big ‘Cap-Gold Cup Double. His win in the Gold Cup at Santa Anita assures him a spot in this year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic. He is trained by David Hofmans who won the Breeders’ Cup Classic in 1996 with Alphabet Soup. He was originally pegged to start in the Pacific Classic but he wasn’t entered due to coming off a persistent illness. However, he is training very well currently. Next Start: The Breeders’ Cup Classic at Santa Anita Park on Saturday November 5th.

4) Hoppertunity* (15/1) – A surprise winner of the Jockey Gold Cup race. A well earned victory for a horse who has been the bridesmaid way too often. He has finished 4th or better in every graded stakes race in his career. Hopps is extremely consistent and you get the feeling that he would probably finish in the top 4 in any race no matter the talent in the field. This is why I am ranking him 4th in these rankings. Some how, he always finds a way to finish in the Superfecta. Next Start: The Breeders’ Cup Classic at Santa Anita Park on Saturday November 5th.

5) Frosted* (5/1) – I feel that the added rest after his disappointing Woodward performance will do him good. I still think he would be better suited for the Dirt Mile but that will be a tough race as well. He set the track record in the 124th running of the Metropolitan Handicap with a time of 1:32.73 that resulted in the highest Beyer Speed Figure (123) of his career and the highest thus far in 2016. As he has stretched out past a mile, his Beyer Speed Figures have declined (107 in the Whitney Stakes and 105 in the Woodward Stakes). But he got off to a bad start in the Woodward Stakes and that may have cost him a win. Next Start: The Breeders’ Cup Classic at Santa Anita Park on Saturday November 5th.

6) Effinex (15/1) – He finished 2nd to Hoppertunity in the Jockey Club Gold Cup race. He also finished 2nd to American Pharoah in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic. For 2016, it is very clear that he has slipped a bit, only capturing wins in the Oaklawn and Suburban Handicaps. The Jimmy Jerkens-trained 5 year old can be enigmatic at times and prone to get off to bad starts (see 2016 Stephen Foster Handicap). But then he can bounce back with a nice performance like he had in the Suburban Handicap in July. Note that Effinex has never finished below 4th in a 10 furlong (1 1/4th mile) race. Jockey Mike Smith seems to get the best out of him but Smith will ride Arrogate in The Classic. Next Start: The Breeders’ Cup Classic at Santa Anita Park on Saturday November 5th.

7) Shaman Ghost (20/1) – After rewatching his Woodward Stakes performance and also learning that had a post-race cough after his disappointing 5th place finish in the Suburban Handicap, I am once again a believer in this Jimmy Jerkens-trained son of Ghostzapper. When you watch the Woodward Stakes race (shown below), Shaman Ghost ran one helluva race. He displayed a willingness to fight for a win and also an ability to go wide and snake through traffic. This is a very talented 4 year-old with a bright future. His jockey Javier Castellano won the 2004 Breeders’ Cup Classic on his father. Next Start: The Breeders’ Cup Classic at Santa Anita Park on Saturday November 5th.

Career: 12 Starts 6-1-1-1 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 1
Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 2 Starts 1-0-0-0
Last 3 starts: 1st–>5th–>1st Average Beyer Speed Figure: 99.7
Sire: Ghostzapper
Trainer: Jimmy Jerkens
Jockey: Javier Castellano (2004 Breeders’ Cup Classic Winner)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:02.12 – 2016 Suburban Handicap
Best Beyer Speed Figure in 1 1/4 Mile Race: ? – 2016 Suburban Handicap
Best Beyer Speed Figure in 2016: 106 – 2016 Woodward Stakes
Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 106 – 2016 Woodward Stakes

8) Win the Space (30/1) – A third place finish behind California Chrome and Dortmund in the San Diego Handicap was probably par for the course but I thought he ran a better in the Gold Cup race at Santa Anita. He is also cross-entered in the Breeders Cup Turf race. Next Start: The Breeders’ Cup Classic or the Breeders Cup Turf race on November 5th.

Career: 14 Starts 3-1-4-0 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 0
Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 4 Starts 0-1-0-0
Last 3 starts: 3rd–>DNF–>3rd Average Beyer Speed Figure: ?
Sire: Pulpit
Trainer: George Papaprodromou
Jockey: Gary Stevens (2013 Breeders’ Cup Classic Winner)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:00.03 (calculated) – 2016 Gold Cup at Santa Anita
Best Beyer in 1 1/4 Mile Race: 107 – 2016 Gold Cup at Santa Anita
Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 107 – 2016 Gold Cup at Santa Anita

9) Keen Ice (20/1) – The only living horse to have beaten a Triple Crown Champion. He shocked a nation by beating American Pharoah in last year’s Travers Stakes (shown below). He also finished 4th in the 2015 Breeders Cup Classic. However, this year will be a taller order. Keen Ice is coming back from a long layoff due to injury and he finished 3rd in a mile allowance race at Belmont on October 7th. Next Start: The Breeders’ Cup Classic at Santa Anita Park on Saturday November 5th.

Career: 17 Starts 2-1-4-4 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 1
Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 5 Start 1-0-0-1
Last 3 starts: 7th–>8th–>3rd
Sire: Uncle Mo
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Jockey: Unknown
Fastest 1 1/4th Mile Time: 2:01.57 – 2015 Travers Stakes
Best Beyer in 1 1/4 Mile Race: 106 –2015 Travers Stakes
Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 106 –2015 Travers Stakes

10) War Story (30/1) – Although he was given 30/1 morning line odds, it really should have been 50/1. War Story has never finished in the Top 4 in a 10 furlong race and has yet to win a Grade 1 race. He finished 16th in the 2015 Kentucky Derby and 7th in the 2016 Pacific Classic. He most recent performance, a 2nd place finish in the Pa Derby Champion Stakes, is shown below.

–Michael

Looking ahead to the 2016 Breeders’ Cup Sentient Jet Juvenile and early 2017 Kentucky Derby Contenders

Posted on October 18, 2016 by Michael J. Cox

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October 18th 2016

With the Breeders’ Cup Sentient Jet Juvenile race coming up in 18 days on November 5th, it is time to take a closer look at the possible entries for that race which serves as a nice preview of next year’s Kentucky Derby contenders.

As I have maintained in previous blogs, this is a very deep and talented crop. In terms of Beyer Speed Figures and times, the 2017 Kentucky Derby class appears to be much better than last year’s at this stage of the game and it is probably better than California Chrome’s class three years ago.

I will be at the Breeders’ Cup World Championships again this year to view this race as well as all the others. Here are eight 2-year-old colts to keep an eye on. Note: An asterisk indicates horses who have won a “Win and You’re In” race for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.

2016 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Contenders

1) Not This Time* – Dale Romans is very high on this Giant’s Causeway colt, calling him “spooky good”. He reminds him of his half-brother Brody’s Cause. He is also Liam’s Map half-brother, the two sharing the same dam (mother) in Miss Macy Sue. He has won his last two starts by nearly 19 lengths and seems to be able to kick it into a higher gear with great acceleration in the final couple of furlongs. We probably won’t get the full understanding of what he can really do until he races against some stiffer competition.

Career: 3 Starts 2-0-0-0 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 0
Last 3 starts: 5th–>1st–>1st
Sire: Giant’s Causeway
Trainer: Dale Romans
Jockey: Robby Albarado
Fastest 1 Mile Time: 1:35.99 – 2016 Ellis Park MSW 8/12/16
Fastest 1 1/16th Mile Time: 1:45.22 (muddy conditions) – 2016 Iroquios Stakes
Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 86 – 2016 Iroquios Stakes

2) Classic Empire* – American Pharoah’s half-brother. Looks like Blinkers On helped him through his gate issues in the Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity. I have been very high on the Pioneerof the Nile colt and wrote about him back in July (SEE). He is right where I thought he would be after his hiccup in the Hopeful Stakes.

Career: 4 Starts 3-0-0-0 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 1
Last 3 starts: 1st–>DNF–>1st
Sire: Pioneerof the Nile (Finished 2nd in 2009 Kentucky Derby)
Trainer: Mark Casse
Jockey: Julien Leparoux
Fastest 1 Mile Time: 1:36.89* – time from 2016 Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity
Fastest 1 1/16th Mile Time: 1:43.41 – 2016 Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity
Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 88 – 2016 Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity

3) Gormley* – He comes from the same owner/trainer combination that produced Zenyatta. He earned a 93 Beyer Speed Figure with his win in the 2nd start of his career–the FrontRunner Stakes (shown below)–beating the race favorite Klimt. So far, this is the highest Beyer Speed Figure for a 2 year-old at more than a mile distance. My only concern is, he probably won’t be able to run like he did in FrontrRunner Stakes and win a 10 furlong race. But give him credit, he used the rail post to his advantage and didn’t tire at the end. Expect many more Gormley vs Klimt battles on the west coast in the future.

Career: 2 Starts 2-0-0-0 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 1
Last 3 starts: N/A–>1st–>1st
Sire: Malibu Moon
Trainer: John Shirreffs (2005 Kentucky Derby Winning Trainer)
Jockey: Victor Espinosa (2002, 2014 & 2015 Kentucky Derby Winner)
Fastest Mile Time: 1:36.87* – time from 2016 FrontRunner Stakes
Fastest 1 1/16th Mile Time: 1:43.57 – 2016 FrontRunner Stakes
Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 93 – 2016 FrontRunner Stakes

4) Klimt – Owned by Kaleem Shah and trained by Bob Baffert–the same combination that produced Bayern and Dortmund. He lost to Gormley in the FrontRunner Stakes but gained valuable experience sitting off the pace as a stalker. Klimt’s sire Quality Road won the Florida Derby, Met Mile, Donn Handicap, Woodward Stakes. Quality Road suffered two quarter cracks that prevented him from competing in all three legs of the Triple Crown.

Career: 4 Starts 3-0-0-1 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 1
Last 3 starts: 1st–>1st–>1st
Sire: Quality Road
Trainer: Bob Baffert (1997, 1998, 2002, 2015 Kentucky Derby Winning Trainer)
Jockey: Rafael Bejarano
Fastest 1 Mile Time: 1:37.51* – estimated time from 2016 FrontRunner Stakes
Fastest 1 1/16th Mile Time: 1:44.05 (calculated) – 2016 FrontRunner Stakes
Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 94 – 2016 Del Mar Futurity

5) Practical Joke* – The Chad Brown-trainee now has two Grade 1 stakes wins. His time of 1:34.68 in the Champagne Stakes was a great time, even considering that this was a one turn race. However, like Syndergaard whom he beat by a nose, neither have competed in a two-turn race thus far. This is why both aren’t ranked higher. Plus, East Coast colts haven’t fared as well as their West Coast counterparts the past few years on the Derby trail. Practical Joke is the son of Into Mischief. I have some pedigree concerns and especially beyond 9 furlongs.

Career: 3 Starts 3-0-0-0 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 2
Last 3 starts: 1st–>1st–>1st
Sire: Into Mischief
Trainer: Chad Brown
Jockey: Jose Ortiz
Fastest 1 Mile Time: 1:34.68 – 2016 Champagne Stakes
Fastest 1 1/16th Mile Time: N/A
Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 88 – 2016 Champagne Stakes

6) Syndergaard – He lost by a nose to Practical Joke in the Champagne. This Todd Pletcher-trainee has an average Beyer Speed Figure of 88 in 3 starts. However, I am concerned that he will like distance. His sire Majesticperfection was a sprinter that didn’t race until he was 4 years old but won 5 out of 6 sprint races.

Career: 3 Starts 2-1-0-0 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 0
Last 3 starts: 1st–>1st–>2nd
Sire: Majesticperfection
Trainer: Todd Pletcher (2010 Kentucky Derby Winning Trainer)
Jockey: John Velazquez (2011 Kentucky Derby Winner)
Fastest 1 Mile Time: 1:34.69 (calculated) – 2016 Champagne Stakes
Fastest 1 1/16th Mile Time: N/A
Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 90 – 2016 Funny Cide Stakes

7) Three Rules – He has owned the 2 year-old races at Gulfstream Park thus far and is the current winnings leader for 2 year-old colts at $680,640. His sire Gone Astray never raced further than 9 furlongs and his biggest win was the 2009 Pennsylvania Derby. He appears to be the early favorite for the Florida Derby.

Career: 5 Starts 5-0-0-0 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 0
Last 3 starts: 1st–>1st–>1st
Sire: Gone Astray
Trainer: Jose Pinchin
Jockey: Cornelio Velasquez
Fastest Mile Time: 1:37.81 – 2016 Florida In Reality Stakes
Fastest 1 1/16th Mile Time: 1:44.63 – 2016 Florida In Reality Stakes
Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 94 – 2016 Florida Dr Fagar Stakes

8) Theory – When it comes to the pedigree, trainer and jockey combination, Theory is probably the most attractive 2 year-old colt. Trained by Todd Pletcher who won the 2010 Kentucky Derby with Super Saver. Ridden by jockey John Velazquez who won the 2011 Kentucky Derby on Animal Kingdom. Theory has raced twice at the 6 furlong distance and received 85 Beyer Speed Figures for both races. His sire Gemologist went undefeated in five starts heading into the 2012 Kentucky Derby where he finished 16th.

Career: 2 Starts 2-0-0-0 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 0
Sire: Gemologist (Finished 16th in 2012 Kentucky Derby)
Trainer: Todd Pletcher (2010 Kentucky Derby Winning Trainer)
Jockey: John Velazquez (2011 Kentucky Derby Winner)
Fastest 1 Mile Time: N/A
Fastest 1 1/16th Mile Time: N/A
Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 85 – 2016 Futurity Stakes

In addition to the above horses, here are three more talented 2 year-olds that could be entries in the Juvenile race: Royal Copy, Big Gray Rocket and Lookin At Lee.

–Michael

2016 Breeders’ Cup Classic Rankings and Expected Entries

Posted on October 11, 2016 by Michael J. Cox

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Updated October 24th 2016

We are less than 2 weeks away from the 2016 Breeders’ Cup Classic. Below are the expected entries for this year’s Classic and how I would rank them currently. I will monitor their published workouts and post at least one more set of rankings before The Classic. Please note the following news bits:

Surprising news. Found, the 4 year old filly from Ireland, will be cross-entered into the Breeders Cup Classic and Breeders’ Cup Turf race. She has never raced on dirt before.
Keen Ice will be entered in the Breeders’ Cup Classic. His jockey will be confirmed within a few days.
Mubtaahij has been removed from my rankings. He hasn’t worked out since the Jockey Club Gold Cup, so he is unlikely to be a starter in the Breeders’ Cup Classic.
Exaggerator qualified for The Classic but was retired to begin his stud career at WinStar Farm.
Nyquist will be entered into the Breeders’ Cup Classic and then retired after the race to stand stud at Darley America.
Dortmund will be entered into the Breeders’ Cup Las Vegas Dirt Mile.
Beholder is expected to be entered into the Breeders’ Cup Distaff.
Shaman Ghost wasn’t entered into the Jockey Club Gold Cup race this past Saturday so that he could train up to the Breeders’ Cup Classic.
Todd Pletcher’s Destin was thought to be a possible entry in the Classic a few months ago but he hasn’t had any published workouts since August 19th.

Although California Chrome will be the favorite in this year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic, probably around 4/5 morning line odds, don’t discount Arrogate. Arrogate’s jockey Mike Smith has won The Classic three times, the most of any active jockey. His trainer Bob Baffert has won The Classic twice. They will be a formidable foe for California Chrome.

2016 Breeders’ Cup Classic Contenders

1) California Chrome* – He’s now undefeated in six starts in 2016. The all-time North American leader in race earnings with $13.4 million dollars. He is currently ranked #1 in Longines World’s Best Racehorse Rankings (SEE). His win in the Pacific Classic was arguably the best performance of his career. Next Start: The Breeders’ Cup Classic at Santa Anita Park on Saturday November 5th.

2) Arrogate – There is no doubt that Bob Baffert has a star colt in Arrogate who set a Travers Stakes and Saratoga track record (1:59.36) for a 1 1/4 mile race. His final quarter mile fraction was 23.84. American Pharoah’s final fraction in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic was 24.60. Here are the best career final fractions of his competition in mile and a quarter races: California Chrome 24.44 2016 Pacific Classic, Melatonin 24.27 2016 Gold Cup race at Santa Anita, Beholder 24.65 2015 Pacific Classic. Arrogate will get a 4 pound advantage over California Chrome and older horses in the Breeders’ Cup Classic. I just need more than one great performance to elevate him higher over Chrome who is undefeated in 2016. Next Start: The Breeders’ Cup Classic at Santa Anita Park on Saturday November 5th.

3) Melatonin* – The Rodney Dangerfield of thoroughbreds because he gets no respect. At the Classic distance of a miler and a quarter, he is undefeated in two starts and has an average Beyer Speed Figure of 108. The surprise winner of the 2016 Santa Anita Handicap. He proved his Big ‘Cap performance was no fluke by finishing 2nd behind Effinex in the Oaklawn Handicap and completing the Big ‘Cap-Gold Cup Double. His win in the Gold Cup at Santa Anita assures him a spot in this year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic. He is trained by David Hofmans who won the Breeders’ Cup Classic in 1996 with Alphabet Soup. He was originally pegged to start in the Pacific Classic but he wasn’t entered due to coming off a persistent illness. However, he is training very well currently. Next Start: The Breeders’ Cup Classic at Santa Anita Park on Saturday November 5th.

4) Hoppertunity* – A surprise winner of the Jockey Gold Cup race. A well earned victory for a horse who has been the bridesmaid way too often. He has finished 4th or better in every graded stakes race in his career. Hopps is extremely consistent and you get the feeling that he would probably finish in the top 4 in any race no matter the talent in the field. This is why I am ranking him 4th in these rankings. Some how, he always finds a way to finish in the Superfecta. Next Start: The Breeders’ Cup Classic at Santa Anita Park on Saturday November 5th.

5) Frosted* – I feel that the added rest after his disappointing Woodward performance will do him good. I still think he would be better suited for the Dirt Mile but that will be a tough race as well. He set the track record in the 124th running of the Metropolitan Handicap with a time of 1:32.73 that resulted in the highest Beyer Speed Figure (123) of his career and the highest thus far in 2016. As he has stretched out past a mile, his Beyer Speed Figures have declined (107 in the Whitney Stakes and 105 in the Woodward Stakes). But he got off to a bad start in the Woodward Stakes and that may have cost him a win. Next Start: The Breeders’ Cup Classic at Santa Anita Park on Saturday November 5th.

6) Effinex – He finished 2nd to Hoppertunity in the Jockey Club Gold Cup race. He also finished 2nd to American Pharoah in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic. For 2016, it is very clear that he has slipped a bit, only capturing wins in the Oaklawn and Suburban Handicaps. The Jimmy Jerkens-trained 5 year old can be enigmatic at times and prone to get off to bad starts (see 2016 Stephen Foster Handicap). But then he can bounce back with a nice performance like he had in the Suburban Handicap in July. Note that Effinex has never finished below 4th in a 10 furlong (1 1/4th mile) race. Jockey Mike Smith seems to get the best out of him but Smith will ride Arrogate in The Classic. Next Start: The Breeders’ Cup Classic at Santa Anita Park on Saturday November 5th.

7) Shaman Ghost – After rewatching his Woodward Stakes performance and also learning that had a post-race cough after his disappointing 5th place finish in the Suburban Handicap, I am once again a believer in this Jimmy Jerkens-trained son of Ghostzapper. When you watch the Woodward Stakes race (shown below), Shaman Ghost ran one helluva race. He displayed a willingness to fight for a win and also an ability to go wide and snake through traffic. This is a very talented 4 year-old with a bright future. His jockey Javier Castellano won the 2004 Breeders’ Cup Classic on his father. Next Start: The Breeders’ Cup Classic at Santa Anita Park on Saturday November 5th.

Career: 12 Starts 6-1-1-1 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 1
Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 2 Starts 1-0-0-0
Last 3 starts: 1st–>5th–>1st Average Beyer Speed Figure: 99.7
Sire: Ghostzapper
Trainer: Jimmy Jerkens
Jockey: Javier Castellano (2004 Breeders’ Cup Classic Winner)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:02.12 – 2016 Suburban Handicap
Best Beyer Speed Figure in 1 1/4 Mile Race: ? – 2016 Suburban Handicap
Best Beyer Speed Figure in 2016: 106 – 2016 Woodward Stakes
Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 106 – 2016 Woodward Stakes

8) Found – The 4 year-old turf filly from Ireland will be cross-entered in both the Breeders Cup Turf race and The Classic. But before you think this is just a publicity move, and that Found will find herself in the Turf race vs Flintshire, remember that her trainer Aiden O’Brien entered Gleneagles (also a Galileo progeny with no dirt experience) into last year’s Breeders Cup Classic. Glenegales finished 8th and dead last. Found, I think, is a better horse. She won the Breeders Cup Turf race last year (shown below). In 2016, she won the most prestigious turf race of the year–the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe in France. Since she is a turf horse, I would expect that she will have a closer race style. However, I don’t think Santa Anita Park dirt surface plays too kindly to closers. She is better off giving Flintshire a run for his money in the turf race. Maybe this is Euro-ego driven, but the truth is that her times in a mile and a quarter are much slower than this field and turf surfaces are generally regarded as faster than dirt. See world records at distance for proof. Next Start: The Breeders’ Cup Classic or the Breeders’ Cup Turf race at Santa Anita Park on Saturday November 5th.

Career (Turf): 20 Starts 6-11-2-0 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 3
Career in 1 1/4 Mile Turf Races: 8 Start 2-5-1-0
Last 3 starts: 2nd–>1st–>2nd
Sire: Galileo
Trainer: Aidan O’Brien
Jockey: Ryan Moore

9) Win the Space – A third place finish behind California Chrome and Dortmund in the San Diego Handicap was probably par for the course but I thought he ran a better in the Gold Cup race at Santa Anita. Next Start: Uncertain but possibly the Breeders’ Cup Classic on November 5th.

Career: 14 Starts 3-1-4-0 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 0
Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 4 Starts 0-1-0-0
Last 3 starts: 3rd–>DNF–>3rd Average Beyer Speed Figure: ?
Sire: Pulpit
Trainer: George Papaprodromou
Jockey: Gary Stevens (2013 Breeders’ Cup Classic Winner)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:00.03 (calculated) – 2016 Gold Cup at Santa Anita
Best Beyer in 1 1/4 Mile Race: 107 – 2016 Gold Cup at Santa Anita
Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 107 – 2016 Gold Cup at Santa Anita

10) Nyquist – Probably a better fit for the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile but it was announced recently that he will be entered in the Breeders’ Cup Classic and then retired. He has shown signs of a tired horse, finishing 5th in the Haskell Invitational and 6th and behind lesser competition in his most recent start in the Pennsylvania Derby. If it were my decision, I would rest him and bring him back in January to run at Gulfstream Park in the Pegasus World Cup before retiring him. The 9 furlong distance at Gulfstream would be a better fit for him since he won the Florida Derby there at this distance. Next Start: The Breeders’ Cup Classic at Santa Anita Park on Saturday November 5th.

Career: 11 Starts 8-0-1-1 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 5
Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 1 Start 1-0-0-0
Last 3 starts: 3rd–>4th–>6th Average Beyer Speed Figure: 95.7
Sire: Uncle Mo
Trainer: Doug O’Neill
Jockey: Mario Gutierrez
Fastest 1 1/4th Mile Time: 2:01.31 – 2016 Kentucky Derby
Best Beyer in 1 1/4 Mile Race: 103 – 2016 Kentucky Derby
Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 103 – 2016 Kentucky Derby

11) Keen Ice – The only living horse to have beaten a Triple Crown Champion. He shocked a nation by beating American Pharoah in last year’s Travers Stakes (shown below). He also finished 4th in the 2015 Breeders Cup Classic. However, this year will be a taller order. Keen Ice is coming back from a long layoff due to injury and he finished 3rd in a mile allowance race at Belmont on October 7th. Next Start: The Breeders’ Cup Classic at Santa Anita Park on Saturday November 5th.

–Michael

Exaggerator Retired

Posted on October 10, 2016 by Michael J. Cox

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October 10th 2016

It was announced today that the popular 3 year-old colt Exaggerator was retired from racing and he will stand at WinStar Farm in Versailles, Kentucky to begin his stud career. The son of Curlin is the only 3 year-old to win three Grade 1 stakes races in 2016 (shown below). He had qualified for the Breeders’ Cup Classic with his win in the Haskell Invitational back in late July. So it appears that Arrogate and Nyquist will be the only two 3 year-olds competing in this year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic. And Nyquist will stand at Darley America following his final start in the Breeders’ Cup Classic.

The decision shouldn’t be much of a surprise given that Exaggerator seemed to only excel on wet, sloppy tracks and had an 11th place and 7th place finish in his last two starts. I will add that I think his running style and penchant to like an off track, that this would translated very well to turf and hoped that the Desormeaux brothers tried he once on that surface.

Exaggerator retires with six wins in 15 starts, five of which were stakes wins and earnings of $3,581,120. A look back at Exaggerator’s three biggest wins.

The 2016 Santa Anita Derby

The 2016 Preakness Stakes

The 2016 Haskell Invitational

I will be posting updated Breeders’ Cup Classic contender rankings by Wednesday evening.

–Michael

The 2016 Jockey Club Gold Cup Preview

Posted on October 6, 2016 by Michael J. Cox

October 6th 2016 – Updated October 8th 2016 at 1:45 PM CST

This coming Saturday, we have three important “Win and You’re In” races for the Breeders’ Cup World Championships. The Champagne Stakes and Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity are automatic qualifiers for the Sentient Jet Juvenile race and also a preview of next year’s Kentucky Derby hopefuls. Then the Jockey Club Gold Cup Invitational, which is an auto-qualifier for the Breeders’ Cup Classic and a date with California Chrome on November 5th.

Below are the post-positions and morning line odds for all three races. I have a feeling that all three will wide-open and highly contested races. I will probably update this blog on Saturday.

Champagne Stakes – 1 Mile – Saturday October 8th – Race #8 at Belmont Park – Post-Time: 3:13 PM CST. Televised by TVG

Post/ Horse/Jockey/Trainer/ Odds
1. Practical Joke – Rosario/Brown – 4/1
2. Thirst for Victory – Franco/Pletcher – 15/1
3. Syndergaard – Velazquez/Pletcher – 9/5
4. Lookin At Blessing – I. Ortiz Jr/Zito – 12/1
5. Favorable Outcome – Castellano/Brown – 2/1
6. Big Gray Rocket – Smith/Baffert – 6/1

Race Commentary: Although this field is small, it has talent and some of the top trainers in the world behind them. I am very curious to see how the Tapit-colt–Big Gray Rocket–performs. I really feel that any of these horses have a realistic shot at winning. So watch the live odds and if a couple of these horses odds grow long, perhaps box the entire field in a Superfecta bet. But maybe a boxed Trifecta (3,5,6) would be a better play.

Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity – 1 1/16th Mile – Saturday October 8th – Race #8 at Keeneland – Post-Time: 4:10 PM CST. Televised by NBC

Post/ Horse/Jockey/Trainer/ Odds
1. Bitumen – Lanerie/Kenneally – 9/2
2. Gunnerva – Rios/Sano – 4/1
3. Singing Bullet – Lezcano/Romans – 8/1
4. Perro Rojo – Saez/Zito – 20/1
5. Tiz Trevor – Kennedy/Cook – 50/1
6. Blame Will – Albarado/Lukas – 12/1
7. Holiday Bonus – Ortiz/Motion – 8/1
8. Wild Shot – Hernandez/Arnold – 15/1
9. No Dozing – Bravo/Delacour – 12/1
10. Honor Thy Father – Borel/McPeek – 15/1
11. Classic Empire – Leparoux/Casse – 5/2
12. Lookin At Lee – Santana/Asmussen – 6-1

Race Commentary: Has Classic Empire gotten over his gate issues? He did an about-face after leaving the gate in the Hopeful Stakes and dumped his rider. I am still a believer in his talent but 5/2 odds seem too short on him right until we know for sure that he has matured. Plus this is a large field and he is starting on one of the outside posts. I would steer clear of laying any larges amounts of money on this race as the chances are high that we could have a surprise winner. If there is a surprise winner, I think it will be Gunnevera or Lookin At Lee.

The Jockey Club Gold Cup – 1 1/4th Mile – Saturday October 8th – Race #10 at Belmont Park – Post-Time: 4:23 PM CST. Televised by NBC

Post Position/Horse/Weight/Jockey/Trainer/Odds
1. Protonico (126) – Castellano/Pletcher – 12/1
2. Mubtaahij (126) – I.Ortiz/McLaughlin – 8/5
3. Hoppertunity (126) – Velazquez/Baffert – 7/2
~~4. War Story (126) – Gallardo/Serey Jr. – 30/1~~ SCRATCHED
5. Watershed (126) – Rosario/Mclaughlin – 10/1
6. Effinex (126) – Smith/Jerkens – 7/5

Race Commentary: Surprisingly, Jimmy Jerkens did not enter Shaman Ghost. He is going to train him up to the Breeders Cup Classic. So this appears to be an interesting battle between Effinex, Hoppertunity and Mubtaahij. Effinex ridden by Mike Smith is probably the winner in this one because Effinex runs well at Belmont Park and seems to like the 10 furlong distance. But one horse who might surprise and bust up your Trifectas is Protonico. He ran a mile in his last start at Belmont Park with a very nice time of 1:34 flat. He is a fresh horse having just raced once this year. Todd Pletcher always seems to produce a surprise new star every year.

Update: There is now a 70% chance of rain at Belmont Park for this race. I feel that this favors inside runners who can get off to good starts.

–Michael

California Chrome–Awesome Again! Updated 2016 Breeders’ Cup Classic Contenders

Posted on October 4, 2016 by Michael J. Cox

October 4th 2016

One thing that the Awesome Again Stakes (shown below) proved this past Saturday is that California Chrome is sharp and still the horse to beat in Breeders’ Cup Classic. He won so handily that Victor Espinoza coasted home in the last half furlong. He received a 112 Beyer Speed Figure for the performance which is just one point shy of his career best Beyer Speed Figure of 113.

In my Breeders’ Cup Classic contender rankings below, I have removed Dortmund and Beholder as both appear to be better fits for other Breeders Cup races. For Dortmund, the Dirt Mile since he has lost to California Chrome three consecutive times. For Beholder, the Distaff since she was once again beaten by Stellar Wind. If you aren’t beating the Ladies, you’re not going to have a serious chance against California Chrome and the new upstart Arrogate.

There is one last “Win and You’re In” race for the Breeders’ Cup Classic coming up this Saturday October 8th at Belmont Park–the Jockey Club Gold Cup. It is expected to feature Effinex, Hoppertunity, Mubtaahij and Shaman Ghost. I will preview this race in my next blog on Thursday evening.

2016 Breeders’ Cup Classic Contenders

The Big Three – West Coast Triumvirate

Career: 24 Starts 15-3-1-1 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 7
Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 6 Starts 4-1-1-0
Last 3 starts: 1st–>1st–>1st
Sire: Lucky Pulpit
Trainer: Art Sherman
Jockey: Victor Espinosa (2015 Breeders’ Cup Classic Winner)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 1:59.93 (calculated) – 2014 Breeders’ Cup Classic
Best Beyer in 1 1/4 Mile Race: 113 – 2014 Breeders’ Cup Classic & 2016 Pacific Classic
Best Beyer Speed Figure in 2016: 113 – 2016 Pacific Classic
Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 113 – 2014 Breeders’ Cup Classic & 2016 Pacific Classic

2) Arrogate – There is no doubt that Bob Baffert has a star colt in Arrogate who set a Travers Stakes and Saratoga track record (1:59.36) for a 1 1/4 mile race. His final quarter mile fraction was 23.84. American Pharoah’s final fraction in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic was 24.60. Here are the best career final fractions of his competition in mile and a quarter races: California Chrome 24.44 2016 Pacific Classic, Melatonin 24.27 2016 Gold Cup race at Santa Anita, Beholder 24.65 2015 Pacific Classic. Arrogate will get a 4 pound advantage over California Chrome and older horses in the Breeders’ Cup Classic. I just need more than one great performance to elevate him higher over Chrome who is undefeated in 2016. Unfortunately, it doesn’t look like we will get that. Next Start: The Breeders’ Cup Classic at Santa Anita Park on Saturday November 5th.

Career: 5 Starts 4-0-1-0 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 1
Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 1 Starts 1-0-0-0
Last 3 starts: 1st–>1st–>1st
Sire: Unbridled’s Song
Trainer: Bob Baffert (2014 & 2015 Breeders’ Cup Classic Winning Trainer)
Jockey: Mike Smith (1997, 2009 & 2011 Breeders’ Cup Classic Winner)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 1:59.36 – 2016 Travers Stakes
Best Beyer Speed Figure in 1 1/4 Mile Race: 122 – 2016 Travers Stakes
Best Beyer Speed Figure in 2016: 122 – 2016 Travers Stakes
Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 122 –2016 Travers Stakes

3) Melatonin* – The Rodney Dangerfield of thoroughbreds because he gets no respect. At the Classic distance of a miler and a quarter, he is undefeated in two starts and has an average Beyer Speed Figure of 108. The surprise winner of the 2016 Santa Anita Handicap. He proved his Big ‘Cap performance was no fluke by finishing 2nd behind Effinex in the Oaklawn Handicap and completing the Big ‘Cap-Gold Cup Double. His win in the Gold Cup at Santa Anita assures him a spot in this year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic. He is trained by David Hofmans who won the Breeders’ Cup Classic in 1996 with Alphabet Soup. He was originally pegged to start in the Pacific Classic but he wasn’t entered due to coming off a persistent illness. Next Start: The Breeders’ Cup Classic at Santa Anita Park on Saturday November 5th.

Career: 13 Starts 5-3-3-1 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 2
Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 2 Starts 2-0-0-0
Last 3 starts: 1st–>2nd–>1st
Sire: Kodiak Kowboy
Trainer: David Hofmans (1996 Breeders’ Cup Classic Winning Trainer)
Jockey: Joe Talamo
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 1:59.79 – 2016 Gold Cup at Santa Anita
Best Beyer Speed Figure in 1 1/4 Mile Race: 109 – 2016 Gold Cup at Santa Anita
Best Beyer Speed Figure in 2016: 109 – 2016 Gold Cup at Santa Anita
Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 109 – 2016 Gold Cup at Santa Anita

Slim chance of winning, top picks for your Superfecta

4) Frosted* – I feel that the added rest after his disappointing Woodward performance will do him good. I still think he would be better suited for the Dirt Mile but that will be a tough race as well. He set the track record in the 124th running of the Metropolitan Handicap with a time of 1:32.73 that resulted in the highest Beyer Speed Figure (123) of his career and the highest of any thoroughbred thus far in 2016. As he has stretched out past a mile, his Beyer Speed Figures have declined (107 in the Whitney Stakes and 105 in the Woodward Stakes). But he got off to a bad start in the Woodward Stakes and that may have cost him a win. Next Start: The Breeders’ Cup Classic at Santa Anita Park on Saturday November 5th.

Career: 18 Starts 6-6-2-2 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 3
Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 4 Starts 0-0-1-1
Last 3 starts: 1st–>1st–>3rd
Sire: Tapit
Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin (2006 Breeders’ Cup Classic Winning Trainer)
Jockey: Joel Rosario
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:02.05 (calculated) – 2015 Travers Stakes
Best Beyer in 1 1/4 Mile Race: 103 – 2014 Breeders’ Cup Classic
Best Beyer Speed Figure in 2016: 123 – 2016 Metropolitan Handicap
Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 123 – 2016 Metropolitan Handicap

5) Effinex – His 4th place finish in the Whitney Stakes was a disappointment. He finished 2nd to American Pharoah in the 2015 Breeders’ Cup Classic. For 2016, it is very clear that he has slipped a bit, only capturing wins in the Oaklawn and Suburban Handicaps. The Jimmy Jerkens-trained 5 year old can be enigmatic at times and prone to get off to bad starts (see 2016 Stephen Foster Handicap). But then he can bounce back with a nice performance like he had in the Suburban Handicap in July. Jockey Mike Smith seems to get the best out of him but Smith will ride Arrogate in The Classic. Next Start: The Jockey Club Gold Cup race at Belmont Park on October 8th.

Career: 25 Starts 9-2-4-4 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 1
Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 7 Starts 3-1-2-1
Last 3 starts: 6th–>1st–>4th
Sire: Mineshaft
Trainer: Jimmy Jerkens
Jockey: Mike Smith (1997, 2009, 2011 Breeders’ Cup Classic Winner)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:01.04 – 2016 Suburban Handicap
Best Beyer Speed Figure in 1 1/4 Mile Race: 112 – 2015 Breeders’ Cup Classic
Best Beyer Speed Figure in 2016: 106 – 2016 Oaklawn Handicap
Career Best Beyer Speed: 112 – 2015 Breeders’ Cup Classic

Not a serious threat to win but ‘hit the board’ potential

Hoppertunity – He kept his streak alive of finishing 4th or better in every graded stakes race in his career with a 4th place finish in the Pacific Classic. He is extremely consistent and you get the feeling that he would probably finish in the top 4 in any race no matter the talent in the field. Next Start: The Jockey Club Gold Cup race at Belmont Park on October 8th.

Career: 21 Starts 5-6-4-5 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 1
Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 5 Starts 0-1-1-3
Last 3 starts: 3rd–>4th–>4th
Sire: Any Given Saturday
Trainer: Bob Baffert (2014 & 2015 Breeders’ Cup Classic Winning Trainer)
Jockey: Flavien Prat
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:00.16 (calculated) – 2016 Gold Cup at Santa Anita
Best Beyer in 1 1/4 Mile Race: 105 – 2016 Gold Cup at Santa Anita
Best Beyer Speed Figure in 2016: 105 – 2016 Gold Cup at Santa Anita
Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 105 – 2016 San Antonio Stakes

Shaman Ghost – After rewatching his Woodward Stakes performance and also learning that had a post-race cough after his disappointing 5th place finish in the Suburban Handicap, I am once again a believer in this Jimmy Jerkens-trained son of Ghostzapper. When you watch the Woodward Stakes race (shown below), Shaman Ghost ran one helluva race. He displayed a willingness to fight for a win and also an ability to go wide and snake through traffic. This is a very talented 4 year-old with a bright future. His jockey Javier Castellano won the 2004 Breeders’ Cup Classic on his father. Next Start: The Jockey Club Gold Cup race at Belmont Park on October 8th.

Career: 12 Starts 6-1-1-1 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 1
Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 2 Starts 1-0-0-0
Last 3 starts: 1st–>5th–>1st
Sire: Ghostzapper
Trainer: Jimmy Jerkens
Jockey: Javier Castellano (2004 Breeders’ Cup Classic Winner)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:02.12 – 2016 Suburban Handicap
Best Beyer Speed Figure in 1 1/4 Mile Race: ? – 2016 Suburban Handicap
Best Beyer Speed Figure in 2016: 106 – 2016 Woodward Stakes
Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 106 – 2016 Woodward Stakes

Mubtaahij – This once enigmatic colt has been a fairly consistent in his last three starts. He finished 2nd in the Dubai World Cup behind California Chrome, 3rd in the Suburban Handicap and finished 2nd in a photo finish for the win in the Woodward Stakes. He appears to be a rail-runner which limits his options down the stretch and he has yet to win a Grade 1 stakes race. Next Start: The Jockey Club Gold Cup race at Belmont Park on October 8th.

Career: 14 Starts 4-3-1-2 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 0
Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 3 Starts 0-1-1-0
Last 3 starts: 2nd–>3rd–>2nd
Sire: Dubawi
Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin (2006 Breeders’ Cup Classic Winning Trainer)
Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr
Best 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:01.28 – 2016 Suburban Handicap
Best Beyer in 1 1/4 Mile Race: 99 – 2016 Suburban Handicap
Best Beyer Speed Figure in 2016: 106 – 2016 Woodward Stakes
Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 106 – 2016 Woodward Stakes

Qualified for ‘The Classic’ but would be longshots

Exaggerator* – The Slopmeister is dependent on a fast pace and an off track. If it rains in the Breeders’ Cup Classic, his odds will shorten.

Career: 15 Starts 6-3-1-1 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 3
Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 2 Start 0-1-0-0
Last 3 starts: 1st–>11th–>7th
Sire: Curlin (2007 Breeders’ Cup Classic Winner)
Trainer: Keith Desormeaux
Jockey: Kent Desormeaux
Fastest 1 1/4th Mile Time: 2:01.51 (calculated) – 2016 Kentucky Derby
Best Beyer Speed Figure in 1 1/4 Mile Race: 101 – 2016 Kentucky Derby
Best Beyer Speed Figure in 2016: 103 – 2016 Santa Anita Derby
Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 103 – 2016 Santa Anita Derby

Bradester* – Rumored to be entered in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile. He has never raced further than 9 furlongs.

Career: 25 Starts 10-6-2-1 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 1
Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 0 Starts 0-0-0-0
Last 3 starts: 1st–>1st–>8th
Sire: Lion Heart
Trainer: Eddie Kenneally
Jockey: Joe Bravo
Fastest 1 1/4th Mile Time: N/A
Best Beyer Speed Figure in 1 1/4 Mile Race: N/A
Best Beyer Speed Figure in 2016: 101 – Stephen Foster Handicap
Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 109 – 2015 Salvator Mile Stakes

3 Year-Olds who could be big Classic contenders next year

American Freedom – He will be entered in either Breeders’ Cup Classic or the Las Vegas Dirt Mile.

Career: 6 Starts 3-2-0-0 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 0
Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 1 Starts 0-1-0-0
Last 3 starts: 1st–>2nd–>2nd
Sire: Pulpit
Trainer: Bob Baffert (2014 & 2015 Breeders’ Cup Classic Winning Trainer)
Jockey: Rafael Bejarano
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:01.52 (calculated) – 2016 Travers Stakes
Best Beyer in 1 1/4 Mile Race: 104 – 2016 Travers Stakes
Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 104 – 2016 Travers Stakes

Connect – The surprise winner of the Pennsylvania Derby. He makes up for a disappointing 6th place finish in the Travers Stakes.

Career: 6 Starts 4-2-0-0 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 0
Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 1 Starts 0-0-0-0
Last 3 starts: 1st–>6th–>1st
Sire: Pulpit
Trainer: Chad Brown
Jockey: Javier Castellano (2004 Breeders’ Cup Classic Winner)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:02.84 (calculated) – 2016 Travers Stakes
Best Beyer in 1 1/4 Mile Race: ?? – 2016 Travers Stakes
Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 103 – 2016 Pennsylvania Derby

Gun Runner – A very consistent runner who could star as a 4 year-old. He is rumored to be an entry in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile.

Career: 10 Starts 5-1-2-1 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 0
Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 2 Start 0-0-2-0
Last 3 starts: 5th–>3rd–>2nd
Sire: Candy Ride
Trainer: Steve Asmussen (2007 Breeders’ Cup Classic Winning Trainer)
Jockey: Florent Geroux
Fastest 1 1/4th Mile Time: 2:02.03 (calculated) – 2016 Kentucky Derby
Best Beyer in 1 1/4 Mile Race: 102 – 2016 Travers Stakes
Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 102 – 2016 Travers Stakes

Nyquist – Probably a better fit for the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile at this point since he has faded down the stretch in two 9 furlong races.

Career: 11 Starts 8-0-1-1 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 5
Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 1 Start 1-0-0-0
Last 3 starts: 3rd–>4th–>6th
Sire: Uncle Mo
Trainer: Doug O’Neill
Jockey: Mario Gutierrez
Fastest 1 1/4th Mile Time: 2:01.31 – 2016 Kentucky Derby
Best Beyer in 1 1/4 Mile Race: 103 – 2016 Kentucky Derby
Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 103 – 2016 Kentucky Derby

–Michael

Mike's Derby Picks

The Road to the Kentucky Derby and Breeders' Cup Classic

Month: October 2016