Not This Time Retired. 2017 Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool #1 Odds

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Not This Time (#10) battles Classic Empire (#9) in the 2016 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile 

November 21st 2016 (Updated November 26th 2016 @12:30PM CST)

Unfortunate news, the extremely promising Dale Romans-trained 2 year old colt, Not This Time, was retired today due to a soft tissue injury to his right front leg. The good news is that he will be fine and will begin a stud career next year at Taylor Made Stallions in Nicholasville, Kentucky. His stud fee was set at $15,000. A very reasonable price.

Not This Time was my early Kentucky Derby favorite. I will add that I correctly named Nyquist as my way too early 2016 Kentucky Derby favorite seven months in advance of the Derby. So this a huge blow. Not This Time shared 8-1 odds with Classic Empire in the recently released 2017 Kentucky Derby Future Wagers Pool #1. This pool can be viewed by clicking HERE.

Not This Time and Classic Empire had a wonderful battle in the 2016 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile race shown below. Classic Empire won by a neck but I feel that if this race had been 9 or 10 furlongs, Not This Time would caught and passed him for the win. When you rewatch the race, Not This Time got hemmed in a little behind the lead pack around the three-quarter pole and was forced to go wide to the outside. This is disappointing and unfortunate news but part of thoroughbred racing.

With the first Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool #1 coming up in three days, below are six horses to consider for your future wager. The Pool will run from Thursday, November 24th at 11 AM CST until Sunday, November 27th at 5 PM CST. You can access the live odds starting on Thursday afternoon by clicking HERE.

Six horses to consider for you 2017 Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool #1

Next to their name, I have included each horse’s Kentucky Derby Future Wager Morning Line Odds and their sire odds in the Kentucky Derby Sire Future Wager Pool in parenthesis. You can see the the Sire Future Wager Odds by clicking HERE.

1) Classic Empire (8/1)  – American Pharoah’s half-brother. Looks like his gate issues are behind him. I have been very high on the Pioneerof the Nile colt and wrote about him back in July (SEE). With Not This Time’s unfortunate and unexpected early retirement, Classic Empire becomes my early Kentucky Derby favorite by default.

Career: 5 Starts 4-0-0-0   Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 2
Last 3 starts: DNF–>1st–>1st
Sire: Pioneerof the Nile  (12/1) (Finished 2nd in 2009 Kentucky Derby)
Trainer: Mark Casse
Jockey: Julien Leparoux
Fastest 1 1/16th Mile Time: 1:42.60 – 2016 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile
Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 102 – 2016 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile

2) Gormley (20/1) – He comes from the same owner/trainer combination that produced Zenyatta. He earned a 93 Beyer Speed Figure with his win in the 2nd start of his career–the FrontRunner Stakes (shown below)–beating the race favorite Klimt. He followed this effort with a disappointing 7th place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Since this was only his 3rd start, he deserves a mulligan because we know he can do better. I like the owner/trainer and jockey combination here and especially at 20/1 morning line odds.

Career: 3 Starts 2-0-0-0   Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 1
Last 3 starts: 1st–>1st->7th
Sire: Malibu Moon (20/1)
Trainer: John Sherreffs (2005 Kentucky Derby Winning Trainer)
Jockey: Victor Espinosa (2002, 2014 & 2015 Kentucky Derby Winner)
Fastest 1 1/16th Mile Time: 1:43.57 – 2016 FrontRunner Stakes
Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 93 – 2016 FrontRunner Stakes

3) Practical Joke (15/1) The Chad Brown-trainee has two Grade 1 stakes wins. Practical Joke is the son of Into Mischief. I have some pedigree concerns and especially beyond 9 furlongs. But he is probably the most accomplished 2 year old after Classic Empire since Not This Time has been retired.

Career: 4 Starts 3-0-1-0   Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 2
Last 3 starts: 1st–>1st–>3rd
Sire: Into Mischief (8/1 – ALL Others)
Trainer: Chad Brown
Jockey: Joel Rosario (2013 Kentucky Derby Winner)
Fastest 1 1/16th Mile Time: 1:43.84 (calculated) – 2016 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile
Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 90 – 2016 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile

4) Mastery (12/1)   He is trained by Bob Baffert. His jockey is Mike Smith. He is a half brother to the late Shared Belief. He received a 93 Beyer Speed Figure in his very first start, the best Beyer Speed Figure for a first-time starter in this 2 year old class. He followed this impressive maiden victory at Santa Anita Park with another win at Del Mar in the Bob Hope Stakes (shown below) this past Saturday. He received an 86 Beyer Speed Figure. Bob Baffert is very high on this colt. He will just need to prove himself past 7 furlongs. I suspect we might see him race next in the Los Alamitos Futurity on December 10th. 

Career: 2 Starts 2-0-0-0   Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 0
Last 3 starts: N/A–>1st–>1st
Sire:  Candy Ride (15/1)
Trainer: Bob Baffert (1997, 1998, 2002, 2015 Kentucky Derby Winning Trainer)
Jockey: Mike Smith (2005 Kentucky Derby Winner)
Fastest 1 1/16th Mile Time: N/A
Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 93 – Santa Anita Park MSW – 10/22/16

5) Klimt (15/1)  Like Gormley in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, a disappointing effort with an 8th place finish. Owned by Kaleem Shah and trained by Bob Baffert–the same combination that produced Bayern and Dortmund. Klimt’s sire Quality Road won the Florida Derby, Met Mile, Donn Handicap, Woodward Stakes. Quality Road suffered two quarter cracks that prevented him from competing in all three legs of the Triple Crown. So Buyer Beware when it comes to your future wager.

Career: 6 Starts 3-0-0-1   Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 1
Last 3 starts: 1st–>2nd->8th
Sire: Quality Road (8/1 – ALL Others)
Trainer: Bob Baffert (1997, 1998, 2002, 2015 Kentucky Derby Winning Trainer)
Jockey: Rafael Bejarano
Fastest 1 1/16th Mile Time: 1:44.05 (calculated) – 2016 FrontRunner Stakes
Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 94 – 2016 Del Mar Futurity

6) Gunnevera (15/1) – The 2016 Delta Downs Jackpot Stakes winner (shown below). His sire Dialed In won the 2011 Holy Bull Stakes, the 2011 Florida Derby and then finished 8th in the Kentucky Derby and 4th in the Preakness Stakes. Gunnevera’s winning time of 1:45.15 was the 4th fastest Delta Downs Jackpot Stakes in thirteen runnings at the 8 1/2 furlong distance. Exaggerator won last year’s Delta Downs Jackpot in sloppy track conditions with a time of 1:46.48.

Career: 6 Starts 3-1-0-1   Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 0
Last 3 starts: 1st–>5th–>1st
Sire: Dialed In (8/1 – ALL Others)
Trainer: Antonio Sano
Jockey: Javier Castellano
Fastest 1 1/16th Mile Time: 1:44.51 (calculated) – 2016 Breeders’ Futurity
Career Best Beyer Speed Figure:  87 – Delta Downs Jackpot Stakes

Three other horses that are on my radar if their live odds are greater than 30-1 or if they entered as expected and perform well this weekend in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes: McCraken and Just Move On

Takaful is expected to be an entry in the Remsen Stakes and was impressive in his first and only start thus far.


LIVE ODDS COMMENTARY – Updated 11/27/16 12:30 PM CST

Links to Live Future Wager Odds: Derby Horses and Sires

Generally speaking for these future wager pools, you try to get at least 3 times the Morning Line Odds for the Kentucky Derby favorite on Derby Day. Morning Line Odds for the last three Kentucky Derby favorites were: Nyquist 3-1, American Pharoah 5-2 and California Chrome 5-2. So question betting on any horse right now when their live odds are less than 7-1. A lot can happen over the next 23 weeks.

Currently, Classic Empire is at 5-1 and his sire Pioneerof the Nile is at 5-1. I would suggest watching Pioneerof the Nile‘s Sire odds vs Classic Empire‘s over the weekend. If they are about the same, you might as well place your bet on Pioneerof the Nile and pick up a few more prospects (ie. Irish Freedom who should be coming back from a pastern injury in late December).

“ALL Others” live odds–For Derby horses is 5-2. For Sires it is 6-1. All Others for Sires picks up some decent Derby contenders in Practical Joke, Klimt, Gunnevera, Lookin At Lee and Three Rules. That is a lot of eggs in the basket. You can usually hedge your way to a profit in these pools if you play it right.

Mastery at 8-1 is getting too much money thrown his way for a horse that has yet to run past 7 furlongs or compete in a two-turn race. Gormley at 26-1 and Klimt at 27-1 are more attractive hedge bets for my Kentucky Derby favorite (Classic Empire) at this point.

I would forget placing any bets on horses with 50-1 Morning Line Odds. None of them really entice me to waste one dollar on at this stage. Syndergaard at 15/1 Morning Line Odds will get a significant amount of money bet on him because he is trained by Todd Pletcher. Right now he is at 28-1. But note that he his sire Majesticperfection was a sprinter and Syndergaard’s speed figures have gone down as he has stretched out past 6 1/2 furlongs.

Also, I recommend placing a few Boxed Exacta bets using Classic Empire and his sire Pioneerof the Nile. Pairing them with “All Others” might be a good option here.

I watched the Remsen and Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes today and I wasn’t overly impressed with any of the horses that ran in these races. Takaful had a disappointing, fading effort for third. McCraken seems to be the best of the horses in the future wager pool that ran today but his winning time of 1:44.15 wouldn’t elevate him into my Top 5. And Mo Town’s time of 1:51.58 was way off of what Mohaymen produced last year in this race at 1:50.69. He did display a nice closing speed that times out better than Gunnevera’s time in the Delta Downs Jackpot. McCraken, Wild Shot, Mo Town and No Dozing are probably Derby runners next May but none of them appear to be “hit the board” potential with these efforts.

–Michael

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