January 29th 2017

Arrogate won his 6th consecutive race yesterday in the Pegasus World Cup Invitational in dominating fashion. Mike Smith admitted that he coasted him home in the final 100 yards. Now the next question is, who is going to be able to beat him in 2017? Nobody in my opinion.

In his last three starts, Arrogate has produced Beyer Speed Figures of 122 in the Travers Stakes, 120 in the Breeders’ Cup Classic and 119 in the Pegasus World Cup. He just turned 4 years-old and thoroughbreds typically peak around 4 1/2 years-old.

Arrogate is undeniably fast, the #1 ranked horse in the world by Longines and he confirmed that yesterday. Out of curiosity, this led me to research the fastest thoroughbreds of the last 20 years to see how Arrogates rates with some of the best from this time frame.

Well, Arrogate is arguably faster than American Pharoah. He proved that in the Travers Stakes by setting an event and track record of 1:59.36. American Pharoah got upset by Keen Ice in the 2015 Travers. Both horses received Beyer Speed Figures of 120 in their Breeders’ Cup Classic races. American Pharoah’s previous best Beyer Speed Figure before the Classic was 109 in the Haskell Invitational. And then 105 in the Belmont Stakes before the Haskell.

You could argue that American Pharoah was never pressed in his Breeders’ Cup Classic run like Arrogate was with California Chrome and thus could have produced a faster time and higher Beyer Speed Figure (BSF).  And that he was on an upward plain and would have accomplished much more as a 4 year-old. I agree. However, he never produced two 120+ Beyer Speed Figures or matched Arrogates times at the 9 and 10 furlong distances.

So what North American Thoroughbred is Arrogate the fastest since? Answer: Ghostzapper and it isn’t real close. But note that Ghostzapper accomplished most of his eye-popping Beyer Speed Figures and times as a 4 year-old. Here is what Ghostzapper produced in 2004 as a 4-year-old:

Tom Fool Handicap – 7 Furlongs – 7/04/2004 – Time of 1:20.42 and BSF of 120
Philip H. Iselin Handicap – 9 Furlongs – 8/21/2004 – Time of 1:47.66 and BSF of 128
Woodward Stakes – 9 Furlongs – 9/11/2004 – Time of 1:46.38 and BSF of 114
Breeders’ Cup Classic – 10 Furlongs – 10/30/2004 – Time of 1:59.02 and BSF of 124

So it will be interesting to see what Arrogate accomplishes as a 4 year-old in 2017. It is unbelievable to think, that this horse who seemingly came out of nowhere, already ranks 3rd all-time in career earnings. He is just $3.66 million in race winnings behind California Chrome and should surpass him this year if he stays healthy. 

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On the docket…

My next blog will be updated 2017 Kentucky Derby Contender Rankings. And I have a new rising 3 year-old star that I feel you need to keep a close eye on. I hope to have this blog out by next Friday evening at the latest and if time permits, race previews of the Holy Bull Stakes and the San Antonio Handicap. The Holy Bull Stakes is expected to include three of my top 10 Derby contenders in Classic Empire, Three Rules, Gunnevera. Expected entries in the San Antonio Handicap are Melatonin, Hoppertunity, Dalmore, Mor Spirit and Accelerate.

–Michael