The Big ‘Cap and San Felipe Stakes Previews

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March 10th 2017 – Updated March 11th 2017

A big day of racing is scheduled tomorrow at Santa Anita Park with the San Felipe Stakes for Kentucky Derby hopefuls and the Santa Anita Handicap for older division horses (4 years-old and older).

The San Felipe Stakes pays out 50 Kentucky Derby points for first place. So the race winner is essentially assured a starting sport in the Run for the Roses.

The Santa Anita Handicap is an early test for Breeders’ Cup Classic hopefuls. Nicknamed “The Big ‘Cap” since it was the first horse race to offer $100,000, its purse was lowered from $1 Million dollars down to $750,000 this year. The Big ‘Cap has had trouble attracting the top thoroughbreds like it once did due to the competing Dubai World Cup that offers a $10 Million dollar purse. However, it is still a very prestigious race to win. Previous winners include great names from the past like Seabiscuit, Affirmed, John Henry and Spectacular Bid.

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Below are the entries, jockeys, post-positions and morning line odds. I rushed a bit to get this blog out so I will update this tomorrow with more commentary.

The San Felipe Stakes – 1 1/16th Mile – Race #5 at Santa Anita Park – Post-Time: 4:04 PM CST.  Televised by TVG

Post Position/Horse/Weight/Jockey/Trainer/Odds
1. Term of Art (122) – Baze/O’Neill – 20/1
2. Vending Machine (120) – Arroyo/Miller – 20/1
3. Ann Arbor Eddie (120) – Gutierrez/O’Neill – 8/1
4. Mastery (124) – Smith/Baffert – 6/5
5. Gormley (124) – Espinoza/Shirreffs – 9/5
6. Iliad (120) – Prat/O’Neill – 5/2
7. Bluegrass Envy (120) – Radosevich/Creque – 50/1

Race Commentary:  Mastery is the fastest horse in this field. However, he is coming off a 91 day layoff. That is concerning as it sometimes takes one race after a long layoff for a horse to back into the flow. Mastery’s stiffest competition is Gormley, so a 4,5 Boxed Exacta is probably your safest bet.

I like Ann Arbor Eddie better than Iliad to round out the Trifecta. Iliad received a 96 Beyer Speed Figure in his last start in the San Vicente Stakes. But that was at 7 furlongs and this race is 8 1/2 furlongs. This will be Iliad’s first two-turn race. Ann Arbor Eddie has already raced two-turns at 8 1/2 and 9 furlong distances. He won at this very same 8 1/2 furlong distance at Santa Anita in the California Cup Derby in late January.

My predicted order of finish: 1) Mastery, 2) Gormley, 3) Ann Arbor Eddie, 4) Iliad, 5) Term of Art, 6) Vending Machine and 7) Bluegrass Envy. However, for Superfecta bets, I would probably play it safe: 4,5 over 4,5 over 3,6 over 3,6. A $1 Superfecta bet of this type would cost $4.


The Santa Anita Handicap  – 1 1/4th Mile – Race #10 at Santa Anita Park  – Post-Time: 6:44 PM CST.  Televised by TVG

Post/Horse/Weight/Jockey/Trainer/ Odds
1. Midnight Storm (122) – Bejarano/D’Amato -8/5 
2. Gangster  (115) – Gutierrez/O’Neill – 30/1   
3. Shaman Ghost (122) – Castellano/Jerkens – 2/1 
4. Isotherm (119) – Prat/Weaver – 12/1
5. Hard Aces (119) – Espinoza/Sadler – 15/1
6. Follow Me Crev (116) – Desormeaux/Cerin – 8/1  
7. Twentytwentyvision (116) – Smith/Mandella – 12/1
8. Hi Happy (116) – Domingos/Souza – 12/1
9. Imperative (119) – Gallardo/Hess – 5/1

Race Commentary:  This will be an interesting race. Midnight Storm is the fastest horse in the field but he drew the dreaded rail. Melatonin shocked the Big ‘Cap crowd last year from the #1 post-position. However, this is a 10 furlong (1 1/4th mile) race and Shaman Ghost is an equally talented horse and more accomplished at this distance. Remember that he finished 2nd in the Pegasus World Cup behind Arrogate at this same distance.

Hard Aces was given 15/1 morning line odds which I think are way too long for a horse that likes distance. Yes he is inconsistent but he fares much better at 10 furlongs or longer. In last year’s Santa Anita Handicap, Hard Aces finished 2nd and Imperative finished 4th.

A potential sleeper to hit the board is Hi Happy, an Argentinian horse who is making his third start in North America. He has primarily raced on turf but has raced impressively on dirt before in a 1 1/2 mile (2500 meter) race in Argentina (shown below). He doesn’t have outstanding closing speed but does have stamina, consistent speed and just enough kick at the end to potentially slip into the top four finishers.

Overall, I think this race comes down to Midnight Storm and Shaman Ghost. I like Imperative, Hard Aces and Hi Happy to round out the other exotic bets. For a Superfecta bet, I like a 1,3 over 1,3 over 5,8,9 over 5,8,9. A $1 Superfecta bet of variety would cost $12. I doubt that it will pay back a huge amount if the 1st and 2nd live odds favorites finish 1-2. So you may want to try a larger 1-3 Boxed Exacta.


On the docket…

My next blog will include updated Kentucky Derby contender rankings which I will post by Monday evening.

–Michael

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