April 8th 2018 – Updated 4:45 PM CST
Ok, I crunched some numbers and I have recommendations for the Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool #4 which can be accessed HERE .
Overall, I feel that it is important for a Kentucky Derby winner to have run the final 3 furlongs in their Derby prep in a time 38.0 seconds or faster. Below are the times I calculated for the key prep races:
Justify 36.87 in the Santa Anita Derby
Mendelssohn 37.34 (estimated) from the UAE Derby
Bolt d’Oro 37.35 in the Santa Anita Derby
Audible 37.48 in the Florida Derby
Vino Rosso 37.63 in the Wood Memorial
Hofburg 37.88 in the Florida Derby
Good Magic 38.21 in the Blue Grass Stakes
Lone Sailer 38.21 in the Louisiana Derby
Enticed 38.27 in the Wood Memorial
Noble Indy 38.49 in the Louisiana Derby
Runaway Ghost 38.53 in the Sunland Derby
I had to estimate Mendelssohn’s time from his last 700 meter stretch in the UAE Derby from Trackus. His speed between the 1200 meter to 1600 meter mark was faster (36.61 mph) than his final 300 meter speed (35.55 mph). He won by such a large margin (18 1/2 lengths) that he was able to coast home. So I think his estimated time above is real close to Justify’s time.
We still have the Arkansas Derby coming up next weekend but I doubt we will see any performance that will be better than what Justify, Mendelssohn and Bolt d’Oro accomplished in their last prep.
So I would recommend Boxed Exactas using Bolt d’Oro, Justify and Mendelssohn. That is 2, 12 and 15 in this pool. Right now Justify is sitting at 3/1 and the live favorite in this pool. Mendelssohn is the second favorite at 5/1 odds. Audible is at 7/1 and Bolt d’Oro is at 10/1.
For straight win bets, if you are going to play them in this pool and not wait until Derby day to see post-positions and scratches, what you could do is take $60 and bet $30 of it on Justify, $20 on Mendelssohn and $10 on Bolt d’Oro, At the current live odds listed above, if one of these three horses win, you will get paid back somewhere between $110 to $120. This is a Return on Investment of 83.3% to 100%.
If Justify’s odds dip down to 2/1, then it would pay back $90 if he is the Derby winner. So this 3 horse win bet play would net you a 50% Return on Investment at the minimum.
As far as Beyer Speed Figures, the top two in this Derby class are Justify with the 107 preliminary Beyer he earned yesterday in the Santa Anita Derby and Mendelssohn’s 106 in the UAE Derby.
Last Update: No real changes in the odds noted above. I really think that the 2018 Kentucky Derby winner will be one of three horses: Justify, Mendelssohn or Bolt d’Oro.
As a side note, I am planning a big article for US Racing. Last year, one of my articles was the top viewed article on that site during Derby month. I hope to duplicate that accomplishment this year and I think you will enjoy it.