May 5th 2018
I am forever grateful that the Curse of Apollo was finally broken in my, our, lifetime. I thought it was in huge danger and I happy it has ended. The 2018 Kentucky Derby was exciting but…I really wish it was broken on a dry, fast track. My race favorite Magnum Moon, whose paternal brother Orb, who won in the sloppy 2013 Kentucky Derby, did not take well to the slop and finished 19th. My wet track favorite, My Boy Jack, did better finishing 5th. Good thing that through future wagers, I still came out ahead $180 this Derby.
Wet races are the great equalizer. Justify is a great 3-year-old who had experience racing on an off-track before and benefited from an inside post-position. However, how will he fare on a dry, fast track at Pimlico? I think pretty well. but I doubt that he will be my early favorite for the Belmont Stakes. I will have to research this but when was the last time a Kentucky Derby winner who who in sloppy track conditions went on to won the Triple Crown?
May 5th 2018 5:58 PM EST
Just a warning. Although there was a 90% chance of rain on Thursday in Louisville, Kentucky, today there was supposed to be a 5% chance today. However, it is raining now at Churchill Downs.
The best horses in the slop: My Boy Jack, Justify and Audible. Stay tuned! I will be updating this blog clear up until post-time. But my gut feeling is to pass on betting on this year’s Kentucky Derby because there will be better races to bet on in the future.
Magnom Moon’s paternal half-brother Orb won the 2013 Kentucky Derby from the same #16 post in the 2013 Kentucky Derby
I am backing off due to the unpredictability of a wet race. So I cancelled all previous bets. But I placed a 50 cent boxed Trifecta with four horses: 5, 7, 10, 16 that cost $12. I made it twice. $24 total. There will be better races to bet on in the future. Just enjoy the chaos and unpredictability of this year’s Derby.
I am also taking $50. Betting $33 on My Boy jack and $17 on Magnum Moon. Expected Payout about $230 plus.