Month: July 2018

Justify Retired After 6 Career Starts

Posted on by Michael J. Cox

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July 25th 2018

As I predicted two weeks ago in my blog titled “Why I became a fan of Horse Racing – before the ‘Sport of Kings’ killed the Goose that laid Golden Eggs” today it was announced that Justify will be retired. I hoped like hell that I would be wrong.

I could reference other sources for quotes and reasons for the early retirement, but I am not going to. I am not buying it. Instead, I would rather voice my opinion and make my commentary on a larger scale in a US Racing article that might reach more of the key players in the sport of horse racing.

I have a bit of an “Axe to Grind” with the sport of horse racing that I love and have been meaning to write about it for awhile. But I sort of got sidetracked, so caught up in the Justify hysteria that I put it aside.

Stay tuned! This next US Racing article will cut like a knife but it needs to for its survival.

–Michael

Does Justify Have A Weight Issue?

Posted on by Michael J. Cox

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July 23rd 2018 – Update July 24th 2018

My latest article for US Racing that is titled “Does Justify Have A Weight Problem?” can be accessed clicking on the previous hyperlink or below: 

https://www.usracing.com/news/features/triple-crown-winner-justify-weight-problem

I joked with my editor that the title he chose for my article is going to get me in hot water with my primarily women readership. Why? I have never known any woman who didn’t think they were too fat. Just so you know, I have never, ever said a word about the weight of any woman I have been with. Ever. 

At any rate, my editor came a bit to my rescue in an article today titled: Why Can’t Horseracing Fans Be Like Other Sports Fans?”

Weight is the enemy of speed and too much weight is bad on the joints. Please read my article before judging. Thanks!

Some interesting tidbits, all three Kentucky Derby winners Elwood, Sir Huron and Donau,  who I profiled in my article, all had faster times in the Kentucky Derby than the 1st Triple Crown winne Sir Barton by roughly 2 seconds. 

–Michael

 

Why I became a fan of Horse Racing – before the ‘Sport of Kings’ killed the Goose that laid Golden Eggs

Posted on by Michael J. Cox

July 11th 2018

My latest US Racing article “Why I became a fan of Horse Racing” can be accessed by clicking on the previous hyperlink or HERE.

After you read the above article, to get a real feel for that era and what I felt, watch this video below–Howard Cosell interviewing Steve Cauthen going for his 1st Kentucky Derby. 

Cauthen doesn’t even look like he is shaving yet. It seems so surreal today. Cauthen wins the Kentucky and then the Triple Crown on Affirmed.

<insert long pause while I channel my emotions>

Sadly, the Golden Era of horse racing was the 1970s when I was growing up. There will never be another Golden Era like it. This era was before the Sport of Kings killed the Goose that laid Golden Eggs. A time before breeding rights became so lucrative it retired its stars early.

And you don’t even have to be a huge star to get retired early, just win a couple of Triple Crown races and lose the Belmont Stakes and the star performer, who you would like to root on further, usually gets retired to the breeding shed.

In case you haven’t heard, yesterday Justify has officially been taken out of training for swelling in his left front ankle. Read between the lines here folks. This, while I am sure its true, will be nothing more than an excuse to retire Justify early.

Justify is estimated to be worth $100 Million dollars by virtue of his $75 million dollar breeding rights. The cost to insure him to race has been estimated to be 3 to 5% of his net worth. That is $3 to $5 Million dollars. 

My guess, if Justify is not going to be retired soon, he won’t race in anything less than the Pegasus World Cup with its $16 Million dollar purse. And I wouldn’t hold my breath on that one as Justify’s racing expiration date was thrown around as the Breeders’ Cup Classic.

The sport of horse racing was one of the top three sports at the turn of the 20th Century and now the sport wonders why it has faded and fallen behind so many others sports today, many of which weren’t invented at that time or were nothing more than a local college sport or a gym activity after the fact.

So what’s mostly wrong with the sport of horse racing? See video below for the hint that kills every good sport.

To cut to the chase more specifically. The real reason? Rich men, with too much money, tax write-offs and no damn common sense. How did Secretariat’s progeny fare? You can’t buy a Triple Crown on breeding alone. See Zenyatta for your latest example. Yet the insanity and ludicrous spending on breeding rights and yearlings continues.

If President Trump wants to make “America Great Again” I think the sport of horse racing shouldn’t be ignored.

Stepping off my High Horse…

–Michael

Justify’s biggest threats in completing the Grand Slam

Posted on by Michael J. Cox

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July 8th 2018

After Diversify’s impressive win in the Suburban Stakes at Belmont Park yesterday, I had to do some quick research to come up with a list the top Breeders’ Cup Classic contenders that represent the biggest threats in thwarting Justify’s bid to become the 2nd Grand Slam winner of North American horse racing.

No decision has been made yet on when and where Justify’s next start will come, but it won’t be in the Haskell Invitational scheduled for the end of this month. However, they are planning to run him in the Breeders’ Cup Classic at Churchill Downs on November 3rd and a prep race before then. My guess on the prep race is that it will be the Travers Stakes on August 25th at Saratoga.

Below are the top four horses in the older horse division that I feel are the biggest threats in preventing Justify joining American Pharoah as a Grand Slam champion. Really this should be a top three list as I doubt Diversify will be entered into the Classic:

2018 Breeders’ Cup Classic Contenders

1) Accelerate –Accelerate completed the Big Cap-Gold Cup double this spring having been victorious in the Santa Anita Handicap in March and Gold Cup at Santa Anita Stakes on May 26th. Next Start: The TVG Pacific Classic at Del Mar on August 18th.

Career: 19 Starts 7-5-5-1   Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 2
Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 3 Starts  2-0-1-0
Last 3 starts: 1st–>2nd–>1st
Sire: Lookin At Lucky
Trainer: John Sadler
Jockey: Victor Espinoza (2015 Breeders’ Cup Classic Winner)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:01.38 – 2018 Gold Cup at Santa Anita Stakes
Best Beyer Speed Figure in 1 1/4 Mile Race: 111 – 2018 Gold Cup at Santa Anita Stakes
Best Beyer Speed Figure in 2017: 111 – 2018 Gold Cup at Santa Anita Stakes
Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 111 – 2018 Gold Cup at Santa Anita Stakes  

2) Thunder Snow – As a 3-year-old, many fans will remember his “I’m outta here” start in the 2017 Kentucky Derby. However, he bounced back from that performance to win a couple of Group 1 races: The 2017 Prix Jean Prat (on turf) and the 2018 Dubai World Cup (beating the Bob Baffert-trained West Coast). Next Start: Nothing has been confirmed to date but they are eyeing the Jockey Club Gold Cup race at Belmont Park on September 29th.

Career: 18 Starts 7-5-0-1   Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 3
Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 1 Starts 0-0-0-0
Last 3 starts: 1st–>2nd-–>1st
Sire: Helmet
Trainer: Saeed bin Suroor
Jockey: Christophe Soumillon
Fastest 1 1/4th Mile Time: N/A
Best Beyer Speed Figure in 1 1/4 Mile Race: N/A
Best Beyer Speed Figure in 2018: 111 – 2018 Dubai World Cup
Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 111 – 2018 Dubai World Cup

3) West Coast – Another Breeders’ Cup Classic contender from Bob Baffert’s barn. West Coast finished 3rd in last year’s Classic. This year, he has two 2nd places finishes in the Pegasus World Cup and the Dubai World Cup. He has never finished off the board in 11 career starts and has the highest Beyer Speed Figure this year (117) of active horses still in training. He will have a different jockey than Mike Smith if both Justify and West Coast are entered in the Breeders’ Cup Classic. Next Start: Nothing announced to date. But my guess would be the Pacific Classic at Del Mar on August 18th.

Career: 11 Starts 6-4-1-0   Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 1
Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 2 Starts  1-0-1-0
Last 3 starts: 3rd–>2nd–>2nd
Sire: Flatter
Trainer: Bob Baffert (2014, 2015 & 2016 Breeders’ Cup Classic Winning Trainer)
Jockey: Mike Smith (1997, 2009, 2011 & 2016 Breeders’ Cup Classic Winner)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:01.19 – 2017 Travers Stakes 
Best Beyer Speed Figure in 1 1/4 Mile Race: 112 – 2017 Breeders’ Cup Classic
Best Beyer Speed Figure in 2018: 117 – 2018 Pegasus World Cup 
Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 117 – 2018 Pegasus World Cup 

4) Diversify – The 5-year-old gelding eclipsed the $1 Million dollar mark in career earnings with his win in the Suburban Stakes. His biggest career win was the 2017 Jockey Club Gold Cup race at Belmont Park. He runs great in the state of New York and especially at Belmont Park. The question is, can he transfer this form to another track? Last year, he finished 4th in the 9 furlong Clark Handicap at Churchill Downs. Next Start: The Woodward Stakes at Saratoga on September 1st. 

Career: 14 Starts 9-2-0-1   Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 1
Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 2 Starts  2-0-0-0
Last 3 starts: 7th–>1st–>1st
Sire: Bellamy Road
Trainer: Richard Violette
Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr.
Fastest 1 1/4th Mile Time: 1:59.84 – 2018 Suburban Stakes
Best Beyer Speed Figure in 1 1/4 Mile Race: 110 – 2018 Suburban Stakes
Best Beyer Speed Figure in 2018: 110- 2018 Suburban Stakes
Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 110 – 2018 Suburban Stakes

On the Docket…

I should have an article for US Racing coming out in the next few days that highlights how I became a fan of horse racing. I think you might enjoy it.

Update: Here’s the link: https://www.usracing.com/news/features/became-fan-horse-racing

–Michael

My Boy Jack is Back! Entered in the Belmont Derby

Posted on by Michael J. Cox

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July 6th 2018 – Updated July 7th 2018 5:15 PM CST

One of the more popular horses on this year’s Kentucky Derby Day–My Boy Jack-is making his first start of the year since the Run for the Roses in tomorrow’s Belmont Derby. The Belmont Derby will be aired live on Fox Sports 2 between 5 and 6 PM CST.

The Belmont Derby is a high profile turf race for 3-year-olds that carries a $1.2 million dollar purse. That is just $300,000 less than what the Preakness and Belmont Stakes offered. And it has attracted a great field which includes a winner of a recent Royal Ascot race, Hunting Horn, who won the Group 3 Hampton Court Stakes for trainer Aidan O’Brien.

Below are the entries, post-positions, weights, jockey assignments and morning line odds:

The Belmont Derby

The Belmont Derby – 1 1/4th Mile – Race #10 at Belmont Park – Post-Time: Saturday July 7th at 5:30 PM CST. Televised by NBC 

Post/Horse/Jockey/Weight/Trainer/Odds
1. Channel Cat (122) – Saez/Pletcher – 30/1
2. Encumbered (122) – Gutierrez/Callaghan – 30/1
3. Analyze It (122) – J.Ortiz/Brown – 5/2
4. Hunting Horn (122) – Moore/O’Brien – 7/2
5. Maraud (122) – Velazquez/Pletcher – 12/1
6. Kingstar (122) – Boudot/Brandt – 12/1
7. Catholic Boy (122) – Castellano/Thomas – 4/1
8. Hawkish (122) –  Franco/Toner – 7/2
9. My Boy Jack (122) – Desormeaux/Desormeaux – 6/1

Race Commentary: One thing I have learned over the years, don’t try to handicap turf races. At least North American turf races. They are usually wide-open and totally unpredictable. That being said, you can make a boat load of money on exotics for this type of race (big purse, turf, distance, 3-year-olds). My recommendation, just enjoy the race and if you are going to bet, make small wager exotics using longshots. I might make a few myself but it wouldn’t be prudent to recommend them to my readers as they aren’t likely to hit. But if they do, they will pay out well.

Update:

The Belmont Derby is being aired live on Fox Sports 2. NBC’s coverage of the Belmont Park races stopped at 5PM.

On the Docket…

I should have an article for US Racing coming out soon that highlights how I became a fan of horse racing. I think you might enjoy it.

–Michael