Updated January 28th 2017 11 am CST

Below are the post-positions, jockeys and morning line odds for the upcoming $12 Million Dollar Pegasus World Cup Invitational, the newly created richest race in the world. Post-time will be at 4:40 PM CST Saturday January 28th and the race will be aired by NBC with live coverage starting at 3:30 PM CST.

This race has a lot of unknowns since no horse will be allowed to use Lasix. But three horses in this field that I think have absolutely no chance of finishing in the Superfecta: War Envoy, Semper Fortis and Prayer for Relief.  Eragon is an unknown. I see nothing from his workouts and race history that make me believe that he will be a factor in the end. Arrogate and California Chrome will finish in the Top 4, so that leaves 8 other horses to round a Superfecta.

I have reviewed previous Donn Handicap races to form an opinion on what it will take to win this race. I think the race-winning time will be in the higher end of the 1:47 range. The only three horses in this field that have run a 1:47 and change through 9 furlongs is: California Chrome, Arrogate and Noble Bird. Noble Bird has been hit-or-miss this year and does well and wins often when he gets out to an early lead. Otherwise, he often packs it in and becomes a herd runner down the stretch. So he is feast or famine.

Gulfstream Park is a speed-favoring track and there is plenty of early speed in this field. In order to win this race, a horse will have to break sharply out of the gate, settle in and assume the ideal position of a stalker on the race leader. Otherwise, there will be too much traffic to deal with to get to the front.

Keen Ice has the talent to win this race but I like his chances in 10 furlong races better than 9 furlongs. He will have to break well and be pressed up closer to the race leader. If he is running mid-pack at the 3/4 mile mark, he won’t win because he doesn’t have the closing speed to beat Arrogate.

Although I preferred Chrome drawing a post inside of Arrogate, I still like an Arrogate-California Chrome (1-12) Boxed Exacta. Arrogate won’t have a weight advantage in this race as all horses will be assigned 124 pounds. However, realize that an Exacta in this race will probably pay out less than it did in the Breeders’ Cup Classic. A $1 Exacta (Arrogate-California Chrome) paid $5 in the Breeders’ Cup Classic, so a $2 Boxed Exacta netted a $3 profit.

I have been reviewing work-out times for the field in order to make recommendations for Trifecta and Superfecta bets. This isn’t going to be a good race for Exotics unless the unexpected happens. If California Chrome and Arrogate’s live odds dip below 1/1, then Exotics won’t pay out much unless some other horse surplants one of the two for first and second. I just don’t see any other horse winning this one except Arrogate and Chrome. If Noble Bird or Neolithic jump out to any early lead, perhaps they could hang on and capture 2nd place.

A big win bet on Arrogate might be your best bet, especially if his live odds are higher than California Chrome’s. California Chrome will have the longest trip in the field starting from the outside post. Arrogate from the #1 post has the talent and ability to wire the field.

A sleeper to round out your Superfecta might be War Story. His workout times have better than his historical times and he is coming off a win in the 9 Furlong Queen County Stakes. Do I think he will finish 4th or better? Probably not but he has raced against top competition and he will have higher odds than a lot of horses in this field so that would help your superfecta payout. 

Shaman Ghost and Breaking Lucky are prime candidates to finish in the Superfecta and in the top half of the field. Breaking Lucky finished 3 1/2 lengths ahead of Shaman Ghost in the Clark Handicap, their last start. However, back in the Woodward Stakes last September, Shaman Ghost displayed better tactical speed and finished nearly a half-length ahead of Breaking Lucky. Shaman Ghost put a nice workout time of 47.70 for 4 furlongs in his last workout, Breaking Lucky had posted very consistent times around 1 min through 5 furlongs in his last two workouts. These two horses are very close but I like Shaman Ghost’s post-position better so I would give him the edge here.

My predicted order of finish*: 1) Arrogate, 2) California Chrome, 3) Keen Ice, 4) Shaman Ghost.

*That is, if Arrogate is 100% healthy and not bothered by his right hind foot. ESPN reported on January 26th: “Arrogate did develop an abscess on the inside of his right hind foot a few weeks ago. Baffert pointed out on Thursday, when Arrogate was paddock schooling before the races, that he has three-quartered that hind shoe — filing off the part of the shoe nearest the abscess — a common tactic used to try to prevent the abscess from being concussed by the shoe and becoming a quarter crack.”

Anyway, Shared Belief had a similar problem and raced just fine. I hope that I am wrong and that we see Chrome go out a winner. Chrome will have to have a 2 length lead at the 3/4 pole, a 1 & 1/2 length lead at the mile mark if he is going to win this if Arrogate is 100%. I am expecting a surprise or two. I don’t think this is a good bettor’s race..a better one just to sit back and watch.

2017 Pegasus World Cup Post-Positions & Odds

1) Arrogate (7/5) – Arrogate is ranked #1 in the world in the most recent Longines World’s Best Racehorse rankings. He will carry the torch for the older horse division in 2017 when California Chrome is retired. The sport is in good hands.

Career: 6 Starts 5-0-1-0   Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 2
Career in 1 1/8th Mile Races: 0 Starts  0-0-0-0
Last 3 starts: 1st–>1st–>1st   
Sire: Unbridled’s Song
Trainer: Bob Baffert 
Jockey: Mike Smith 
Fastest 1 1/8th Mile Time: 1:47.44* (estimated from 2016 Travers Stakes)
Best Beyer Speed Figure in 2016: 122 – 2016 Travers Stakes
Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 122 –2016 Travers Stakes