Carpe Diem Horse

My Top Five 2015 Kentucky Derby Contenders

Posted on by Michael J. Cox

Below is my top 5 Kentucky Derby contenders. Far From Over was injured at the end of March and is off the Kentucky Derby Trail. My early pick for the Kentucky Derby and Kentucky Oaks are Dortmund and Condo Commando respectively. American Pharoah and Dortmund are close enough in talent that post position may cause me to lean one way or the other. As far as early betting strategies, I would probably be thinking about placing a nice boxed exacta on Dortmund and American Pharoah.

My feelings for why I favor Dortmund at this point is the fact that he has yet to be defeated. He was proven that he will dig in when challenged at the finish line (twice against Firing Line). He is a big, strong colt which should give him an advantage in going an extra 1/8th mile in the Kentucky Derby’s distance of 1 1/4th mile as opposed to these final prep races that have been 1 1/8th mile. His sire Big Brown was a Kentucky Derby winner in 2008 while American Pharoah’s sire Pioneerof the Nile finished 2nd in the Kentucky Derby in 2009.

1A) Dortmund (Kentucky Bred- Won in 1st start) – Derby Points: 170
Sire: Big Brown – 2008 Kentucky Derby & Preakness Stakes Winner
Jockey: Martin Garcia

6 Starts, 6 Wins, Win Pct: 100%, Graded Stakes Win Pct: 100%
Last Three Starts: 1st (103 Beyer), 1st (104 Beyer). 1st (106 Beyer)
Average Beyer Speed Figure of Last Two Starts:  105
Fastest 1 1/16 Mile Time: 1:40.86 at Los Alamitos 12/20/14
Fastest 1 1/8th Mile Time: 1:48.73 at Santa Anita Park 4/4/15
 Dortmund’s Equibase Profile

1B) American Pharoah (Kentucky Bred – Won in 2nd start) – Derby Points: 160
Sire: Pioneerof the Nile – Finished 2nd in 2009 Kentucky Derby
Jockey: Victor Espinoza

5 Starts, 4 Wins, Win Pct: 80%, Graded Stakes Win Pct: 100%
Last Three Starts: 1st (101 Beyer), 1st (100 Beyer), 1st (105 Beyer)
Average Beyer Speed Figure of Last Two Starts: 102.5
Fastest 1 1/16th Mile Time: 1:41.95 at Santa Anita Park 9/27/14
Fastest 1 1/8th Mile Time: 1:48.52 at Oaklawn Park 4/11/15
 American Pharoah’s Equibase Profile

3) Firing Line (Kentucky Bred – Won in 2nd start) – Derby Points: 58
Sire: Line of David – Won 2010 Arkansas Derby, finished 18th in 2010 Kentucky Derby
Jockey: Gary Stevens

5 Starts, 2 Wins, Win Pct: 40%, Graded Stakes Win Pct: 33%
Last Three Starts: 2nd (91 Beyer), 2nd (104 Beyer), 1st (97 Beyer)
Average Beyer Speed Figure of Last Two Starts: 100.5
Fastest 1 1/16th Mile Time: 1:40.88 (calculated) at Los Alamitos 12/20/14
Fastest 1 1/8th Mile Time: 1:47.39 (track record) at Sunland Park 3/22/15
Firing Line’s Equibase Profile

4) Carpe Diem (Kentucky Bred – Won in 1st start) – Derby Points: 164
Sire: Giant’s Causeway – Finished 2nd in the 2000 Breeders’ Cup Classic
Jockey: John Velazquez

5 Starts, 4 Wins, Win Pct: 80%, Graded Stakes Win Pct: 80%
Last Three Starts: 2nd (91 Beyer), 2nd (93 Beyer), 1st (98 Beyer)
Average Beyer Speed Figure of Last Two Starts: 95.5
Fastest 1 1/16th Mile Time: 1:42.95 (calculated) at Santa Anita Park 11/1/14
Fastest 1 1/8th Mile Time: 1:49.77 at Keeneland 4/4/2015
Carpe Diem’s Equibase Profile

5) Materiality (Kentucky Bred – Won in 1st start) – Derby Points: 100
Sire: Afleet Alex – 2005 Preakness Stakes & Belmont Stakes Winner
Jockey: Kent Desormeaux?

3 Starts, 3 Wins, Win Pct: 100%, Graded Stakes Win Pct: 100%
Last Three Starts: 1st (87 Beyer), 1st (104 Beyer), 1st (110 Beyer)
Average Beyer Speed Figure of Last Two Starts: 107
Fastest 1 1/16th Mile Time: n/a
Fastest 1 1/8th Mile Time: 1:49.32 at Gulfstream Park 3/6/15
Materiality’s Equibase Profile

The Santa Anita Derby, Blue Grass Stakes & Wood Memorial

Posted on by Michael J. Cox

Today is another important day on the Kentucky Derby Trail with three key point paying races in the Santa Anita Derby, Blue Grass Stakes and Wood Memorial Derby at Aqueduct. Dortmund highlights the Santa Anita Derby while Carpe Diem highlights the Blue Grass Stakes. Overall, all of these races have somewhat disappointing fields in terms of  depth and quality. The Santa Anita has six entries, the Wood Memorial has seven and the Blue Grass Stakes has eight. All three races are 1 1/8th mile races that pay out 100 points to the winner.

1) The Wood Memorial  Race #10 at Aqueduct- Post Time 4:30 PM CST 

This race has less starpower but should be an interesting battle between Frosted and El Kabeir. Daredevil is also entered but he is more of a sprinter. El Kabeir has distance limitations. I would place a $1 straight trifecta 4-5-6 (Frosted, El Kabeir and Daredevil) and $100 Show bet on Frosted (horse #4)

2) The Blue Grass Stakes Race #10 at Keeneland – Post Time 5:00 PM CST

I feel less confident about this race. Carpe Diem is the 1/1 Morning Line favorite but has Ocho Ocho Ocho is on the inside with 6/1 Morning Line Odds. I would place a $50 Place bet on Carpe Diem (horse #5).

3) The Santa Anita Derby Race #8 at Santa Anita Park – Post Time 5:38 PM CST

Dortmund is the 3/5 Morning Line favorite and my pick to win. You would have to shell out big money to get a decent payback just like his last three races. I would probably bet $150 on Dortmund to win and a $20 boxed 1-5 exacta (Dortmund, Prospect Park).

–Michael

My Sensational Seven 2015 Kentucky Derby Contenders

Posted on by Michael J. Cox

American Pharoah #4 in the Rebel stakes. Photo: Eclipse Sportswire

Below is an updated ranking on my top seven Kentucky Derby contenders. As you can see, American Pharoah moved up my list due to his Rebel Stakes performance that answered a lot of questions as to how he would fare coming a long layoff. Firing Line returns to my top seven with his landslide victory in the Sunland Derby where he set a track record. He was always a talented colt, just needed to race where didn’t have to beat Dortmund.

Texas Red has been removed from my list as he is officially off the Derby trail. The Desormeaux brothers don’t feel that they have enough lead time to prep for the Kentucky Derby. Materiality is new addition to my list. His jockey has been John Velazquez but Velazquez will likely be Carpe Diem’s rider in the Kentucky Derby. So Materiality could be Kent Desormeaux’s mount in place of Texas Red for the Kentucky Derby. That is, if he can secure the necessary Derby points in the Florida Derby. He is the half brother to Texas Red as they shared the same sire (Afleet Alex).

1) Dortmund (Kentucky Bred- Won in 1st start) – Derby Points: 70
Sire: Big Brown – 2008 Kentucky Derby & Preakness Stakes Winner
Jockey: Martin Garcia

5 Starts, 5 Wins, Win Pct: 100%, Graded Stakes Win Pct: 100%
Last Three Starts: 1st (91 Beyer), 1st (103 Beyer), 1st (104 Beyer)
Average Beyer Speed Figure of Last Two Starts:  103.5
Fastest 1 1/16 Mile Time-: 1:40.86 at Los Alamitos 12/20/14
Next Race: Santa Anita Derby – April 4th
 Dortmund’s Equibase Profile

2) American Pharoah (Kentucky Bred – Won in 2nd start) – Derby Points: 60
Sire: Pioneerof the Nile – Finished 2nd in 2009 Kentucky Derby
Jockey: Victor Espinoza

4 Starts, 3 Wins, Win Pct: 75%, Graded Stakes Win Pct: 100%
Last Three Starts: 1st (101 Beyer), 1st (101 Beyer), 1st (100 Beyer)
Average Beyer Speed Figure of Last Two Starts: 100.5
Fastest 1 1/16th Mile Time: 1:41.95 at Santa Anita Park 9/27/14
Next Race: Arkansas Derby – April 11th
 American Pharoah’s Equibase Profile

3) Firing Line (Kentucky Bred – Won in 2nd start) – Derby Points: 58
Sire: Line of David – Won 2010 Arkansas Derby, finished 18th in 2010 Kentucky Derby
Jockey: Gary Stevens

5 Starts, 2 Wins, Win Pct: 40%, Graded Stakes Win Pct: 33%
Last Three Starts: 2nd (91 Beyer), 2nd (104 Beyer), 1st (97 Beyer)
Average Beyer Speed Figure of Last Two Starts: 100.5
Fastest 1 1/16th Mile Time: 1:40.88 (calculated) at Los Alamitos 12/20/14
Fastest 1 1/8th Mile Time: 1:47.39 (track record) at Sunland Park 3/22/15
Next Race: Kentucky Derby – May 2nd
Firing Line’s Equibase Profile

4) Upstart (New York Bred – Won in 1st start) – Derby Points: 36
Sire: Flatter whose sire was A.P. Indy – 1992 Belmont Stakes & Breeders’ Cup Classic
Jockey: Jose Ortiz

6 Starts, 3 Wins, Win Pct: 50%, Graded Stakes Win Pct: 25%
Last Three Starts: 3rd (93 Beyer), 1st (105* Beyer), 2nd–DQ from 1st (95 Beyer)
Average Beyer Speed Figure of Last Two Starts: 100
Fastest 1 1/16th Mile Time: 1:42.96 (calculated) at Santa Anita Park 11/1/14
Next Race: Florida Derby – March 28th
*Some references list this Beyer Speed figure at 106, I chose the lower
Upstart’s Equibase Profile

5) Carpe Diem (Kentucky Bred – Won in 1st start) – Derby Points: 64
Sire: Giant’s Causeway – Finished 2nd in the 2000 Breeders’ Cup Classic
Jockey: John Velazquez

4 Starts, 3 Wins, Win Pct: 75%, Graded Stakes Win Pct: 67%
Last Three Starts: 1st (91 Beyer), 2nd (93 Beyer), 1st (98 Beyer)
Average Beyer Speed Figure of Last Two Starts: 95.5
Fastest 1 1/16th Mile Time: 1:42.95 (calculated) at Santa Anita Park 11/1/14
Next Race: Blue Grass Stakes – April 11th
Carpe Diem’s Equibase Profile

6) Far From Over (Kentucky Bred – Won in 1st start) – Derby Points: 10
Sire: Blame – 2010 Breeders’ Cup Classic Winner
Jockey: Manuel Franco

2 Starts, 2 Wins, Win Pct: 100%, Graded Stakes Win Pct: 100%
Last Three Starts: 1st (78 Beyer), 1st (96 Beyer)
Average Beyer Speed Figure of Last Two Starts: 82
Fastest 1 1/16th Mile Time: 1:43.93 at Aqueduct 2/7/15
Next Race: Wood Memorial – April 4th
Far From Over’s Equibase Profile

7) Materiality (Kentucky Bred – Won in 1st start) – Derby Points: 0
Sire: Afleet Alex – 2005 Preakness Stakes & Belmont Stakes Winner
Jockey: Kent Desormeaux?

2 Starts, 2 Wins, Win Pct: 100%, Graded Stakes Win Pct: 100%
Last Three Starts: 1st (87 Beyer), 1st (104 Beyer)
Average Beyer Speed Figure of Last Two Starts: 95.5
Fastest 1 1/16th Mile Time: n/a
Fastest 1 1/8th Mile Time: 1:49.32 at Gulfstream Park 3/6/15
Next Race: Florida Derby – March 28th
Materiality’s Equibase Profile

Below is a ranking of the average Beyer Speed Figures of my top seven horses last two starts. Ties are broken by the higher speed in the last start.

Ranking By Average Beyer Speed Figures of Last Two Starts(Last Start):
1) Dortmund 103.5 (104)
2) American Pharoah 100.5 (100)
3) Firing Line 100.5 (97)
4) Upstart 100 (95)
5) Materiality 95.5 (104)
6) Carpe Diem  95.5 (98)
7) Far From Over  82 (96)

–Michael

American Pharoah Back In Action & My Updated Top 6 Kentucky Derby Contenders

Posted on by Michael J. Cox

American Pharoah (Benoit Photo)

The 2014 Eclipse 2 Year-Old Horse of the Year will be back in action this Saturday March 14th at Oaklawn Park in the Rebel Stakes (Race #10). Post Time is 6:06 PM CST. American Pharoah is the Morning Line favorite at 1/2 odds. In this seven horse field, his toughest competition will come from Post #1 The Truth or Else (4/1 Odds) ridden by Calvin Borel, the Steve Asmussen-trained Bold Conquest (8/1 Odds) and Todd Pletcher’s other entry–Madefromlucky (6/1 Odds).

As with any horse coming off a long layoff, I expect bettors to push American Pharoah’s odds higher and closer to 1/1. If I were betting this weekend, I probably would steer clear from betting on this race. However, if you want my recommendation, I would probably place a $10 1-4 Boxed Exacta on American Pharoah-The Truth or Else and hope that Calvin Borel does his rail magic. I would also consider a $1 1-2-4 Boxed Trifecta (The Truth or Elise, Madefromluck and American Pharoah). If American Pharoah’s odds push closer to 2-1, then I might lay down another $20 Win bet on him.

Below is an updated list on my Top Six Kentucky Derby contenders.

1) Dortmund (Kentucky Bred- Won in 1st start) – Derby Points: 70
Sire: Big Brown – 2008 Kentucky Derby & Preakness Stakes Winner

5 Starts, 5 Wins, Win Pct: 100%, Graded Stakes Win Pct: 100%
Last Three Starts: 1st (91 Beyer), 1st (103 Beyer), 1st (104 Beyer)
Average Beyer Speed Figure of Last Two Starts:  103.5
Fastest 1 1/16 Mile Time-: 1:40.86 at Los Alamitos 12/20/14
Next Race: Santa Anita Derby – April 4th
 Dortmund’s Equibase Profile

2) Upstart (New York Bred – Won in 1st start) – Derby Points: 36
Sire: Flatter whose sire was A.P. Indy – 1992 Belmont Stakes & Breeders’ Cup Classic

6 Starts, 3 Wins, Win Pct: 50%, Graded Stakes Win Pct: 25%
Last Three Starts: 3rd (93 Beyer), 1st (105 Beyer), 2nd–DQ from 1st (95 Beyer)
Average Beyer Speed Figure of Last Two Starts: 100
Fastest 1 1/16th Mile Time: 1:42.96 (calculated) at Santa Anita Park 11/1/14
Next Race: Florida Derby – March 28th
Upstart’s Equibase Profile

3) Texas Red  (Kentucky Bred – Won in 3rd start) – Derby Points: 12
Sire: Afleet Alex – 2005 Preakness Stakes & Belmont Stakes Winner

6 Starts, 2 Wins, Win Pct: 33%, Graded Stakes Win Pct: 33%
Last Three Starts:  3rd (93 Beyer), 1st (104 Beyer), 2nd (90 Beyer)
Average Beyer Speed Figure of Last Two Starts: 97
Fastest 1 1/16th Mile Time: 1:41.91 at Santa Anita Park 11/1/14
Next Race: Santa Anita Derby – April 4th or Arkansas Derby – April 11th
 Texas Red’s Equibase Profile

4) American Pharoah (Kentucky Bred – Won in 2nd start) – Derby Points: 10
Sire: Pioneerof the Nile – Finished 2nd in 2009 Kentucky Derby

3 Starts, 2 Wins, Win Pct: 67%, Graded Stakes Win Pct: 100%
Last Three Starts: 5th, 1st (101 Beyer), 1st (101 Beyer)
Average Beyer Speed Figure of Last Two Starts: 101
Fastest 1 1/16th Mile Time: 1:41.95 at Santa Anita Park 9/27/14
Next Race: Rebel Stakes – March 14th
 American Pharoah’s Equibase Profile

5) Carpe Diem (Kentucky Bred – Won in 1st start) – Derby Points: 64
Sire: Giant’s Causeway – Finished 2nd in the 2000 Breeders’ Cup Classic

Kentucky Derby Future Wager Final Odds: Pool #1: 15-1, Pool #2: 12-1
Current Morning Line Odds: 12-1

4 Starts, 3 Wins, Win Pct: 75%, Graded Stakes Win Pct: 67%
Last Three Starts: 1st (91 Beyer), 2nd (93 Beyer), 1st (98 Beyer)
Average Beyer Speed Figure of Last Two Starts: 95.5
Fastest 1 1/16th Mile Time: 1:42.95 (calculated) at Santa Anita Park 11/1/14
Next Race: Blue Grass Stakes – April 11th
Carpe Diem’s Equibase Profile

6) Far From Over (Kentucky Bred – Won in 1st start) – Derby Points: 10
Sire: Blame – 2010 Breeders’ Cup Classic Winner

2 Starts, 2 Wins, Win Pct: 100%, Graded Stakes Win Pct: 100%
Last Three Starts: 1st (78 Beyer), 1st (96 Beyer)
Average Beyer Speed Figure of Last Two Starts: 82
Fastest 1 1/16th Mile Time: 1:43.93 at Aqueduct 2/7/15
Next Race: Wood Memorial – April 4th
Far From Over’s Equibase Profile

And another horse to keep an eye on from the Todd Pletcher stable–Materiality who posted a 104 Beyer Speed Figure in a 1 1/8th mile race at Gulfstream Park on March 6th (shown below).

Materiality (Kentucky Bred – Won in 1st start) – Derby Points: 0
Sire: Afleet Alex – 2005 Preakness Stakes & Belmont Stakes Winner

2 Starts, 2 Wins, Win Pct: 100%, Graded Stakes Win Pct: 100%
Last Three Starts: 1st (87 Beyer), 1st (104 Beyer)
Average Beyer Speed Figure of Last Two Starts: 95.5
Fastest 1 1/16th Mile Time: n/a
Next Race: Unknown
Materiality’s Equibase Profile

Below is a ranking of the average Beyer Speed Figures of my top six horses last two starts. Ties are broken by the higher speed in the last start. Materiality was added to the list for comparison purposes.

Ranking By Average Beyer Speed Figures of Last Two Starts:
1) Dortmund 103.5
2) American Pharoah 101
3) Upstart 100
4) Texas Red  97
5) Materiality 95.5
6) Carpe Diem  95.5
7) Far From Over  82

–Michael

Dortmund highlights Another Big Derby Trail Weekend

Posted on by Michael J. Cox

Tomorrow, March 7th, there are three important races on the Kentucky Derby Trail that will feature 10 of the 23 horses listed in the Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool #3. I have bold fonted these horses in the text below. Also the Swale Stakes at Gulfstream Park will feature the Bob Baffert-trained Daredevil who is coming off a long layoff but this race is non-points paying. For the 4 year-old race fans,  Shared Belief highlights the Santa Anita Handicap and the San Carlos Stakes features the Bob Baffert sprinter Chitu.

1) Swale Stakes – 7 furlongs at Gulfstream Park. Race #6 2 PM CST: Here are the key horses with their Morning Line odds: Daredevil 4/5, X Y Jet 4/1, Ready for Rye 9/2 and Bluegrass Singer 8/1. I think Daredevil is going to wire this field. I would plunk down a $20 Place bet on Daredevil (horse #1) just in case he is rusty coming off a long layoff.

2) Gotham Stakes – 1 1/16th Mile at Aqueduct. Race #9 at 3:50 PM CST: The two morning line favorites are El Kabeir 8/5 and Classy Class 7/2. Todd Pletcher has three horses with 5/1 Odds: Blame Jim, Dontbetwithbruno and Uninfluenced. Blame Jim is probably the best out of these three. The Chad Brown-trained horse Lieutenant Colonel is also 5/1 odds and is coming off a maiden win at Gulfstream Park in February.

Overall, I don’t feel good about betting on this race, too many fresh faces from the Pletcher barn. If I bet anything it would be a Show Bet on El Kabeir. If the Daredevil place bet wins in the Swale, take all the earnings from that race and put it on El Kabeir (horse #4) to Show.

3) Tampa Bay Derby – 1 1/16 Mile at Tampa Bay Downs. Race #11 at 4:23 PM CST: The two key horses in this race with the ML odds are: Carpe Diem 8/5, Ocean Knight 2/1. Danzig Moon starts on the outside post and is 12/1 odds. I like a $10 Boxed Exacta (2-3) on Carpe Diem and Ocean Knight.

4) San Felipe Stakes – 1 1/16th Mile at Santa Anita Park. Race #7 at 4:57 PM CST: This race features five horses who were listed in the Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool #3. These horses with their ML Odds are: Dortmund 8/5, Ocho Ocho Ocho 4/1, Lord Nelson 4/1, Prospect Park 4/1 and Bolo 6/1.

Overall, the only horse I feel that might be capable of beating Dortmund is Ocho Ocho Ocho. However, he is coming off a 105 day layoff so you never know if a horse like this will have improved by leaps and bounds or be rusty. Interesting to note, both Dortmund and Ocho Ocho Ocho are undefeated. Prospect Park is another fast horse with Kent Desormeaux as his rider. This will be Dortmund’s biggest test to date. I like Dortmund again and I would place $50 on him (horse #3) to win. I would also consider placing a $10 Boxed Exacta 3-6 (Dortmund and Prospect Park).

5) San Carlos Stakes – 7 Furlongs at Santa Anita Park. Race #9 at 6:07 PM CST: Chitu (2/1) will battle Conquest Two Step (5/2) and WIld Dude (3/1) and Bob Baffert’s other entry Midnight Hawk (6/1). I think Chitu will wire this field.. So I would place a $20 Win bet on Chitu (horse #1).

6) Santa Anita Handicap – 1 1/4th Mile at Santa Anita Park for 4 Year-Olds & Upwards. Race #11 at 7:17 PM CST: Shared Belief is listed a 3/5 ML Odds and his main competition will come from Moreno who is 6/1 ML Odds. I feel real good about this one and I generally don’t like betting on 4 year-olds. However, I would place a $50 win bet on Shared Belief (horse #5) and I would place it every time so long as Bayern or California Chrome aren’t competing against him. It will probably only pay you back $60 but this is as sure of a 20% ROI you will find this year. If California Chrome couldn’t beat Share Belief back in January, I don’t expect any horse in this field to beat him either.

–Michael

Eight Great Horses To Consider For Your Kentucky Derby Future Wagers Pool #3

Posted on by Michael J. Cox

With the Kentucky Future Wagers Pool #3 coming up February 27th, below are eight horses to consider for your future wager. But first, what does a Kentucky Derby winner usually look like on paper?

Profiling the Kentucky Derby Winner

The profile of a typical Kentucky Derby winner is that 75.7% are Kentucky bred. California Chrome was the exception and not the norm last year being a California bred horse. California has produced only four Kentucky Derby winners with the last (before California Chrome) being Decidedly who won in 1962.  Florida is the next best state at producing Kentucky Derby winners with six.

Another stat to consider is that the roughly 70% of Kentucky Derby winners won their first race in their first or second start–which California Chrome accomplished. As long as a horse wins in his first four starts and gets hot in February and March, I am fine with it. Also, probably a more important stat, thirteen out of the last fifteen Kentucky Derby winners broke their maiden by December 1st of their 2-year-old campaign. All the horses in my top seven won their first race by December 1st except for Far From Over who won on December 12th.

Note: blue bold fonts are linked to race videos or Equibase references

1) Dortmund (Kentucky Bred- Won in 1st start) – Derby Points: 20
Sire: Big Brown – 2008 Kentucky Derby & Preakness Stakes Winner

Kentucky Derby Future Wager Final Odds: Pool #1: 9-1, Pool #2: 10-1
Current Morning Line Odds: 8-1

4 Starts, 4 Wins, Win Pct: 100%, Graded Stakes Win Pct: 100%
Last Three Starts: 1st (97 Beyer), 1st (91 Beyer), 1st (103 Beyer)
Average Beyer Speed Figure of Last Two Starts:  97
Fastest 1 1/16 Mile Time-: 1:40.86 at Los Alamitos 12/20/14
Next Race: San Felipe Stakes – March 7th or Santa Anita Derby – April 4th
 Dortmund’s Equibase Profile

2) Texas Red  (Kentucky Bred – Won in 3rd start) – Derby Points: 12
Sire: Afleet Alex – 2005 Preakness Stakes & Belmont Stakes Winner

Kentucky Derby Future Wager Final Odds: Pool #1: 14-1, Pool #2: 9-1
Current Morning Line Odds: 12-1

6 Starts, 2 Wins, Win Pct: 33%, Graded Stakes Win Pct: 33%
Last Three Starts:  3rd (93 Beyer), 1st (104 Beyer), 2nd (90 Beyer)
Average Beyer Speed Figure of Last Two Starts: 97
Fastest 1 1/16th Mile Time: 1:41.91 at Santa Anita Park 11/1/14
Next Race: Santa Anita Derby – April 4th or Arkansas Derby – April 11th
 Texas Red’s Equibase Profile

3) American Pharoah (Kentucky Bred – Won in 2nd start) – Derby Points: 10
Sire: Pioneerof the Nile – Finished 2nd in 2009 Kentucky Derby

Kentucky Derby Future Wager Final Odds: Pool #1: 12-1, Pool #2: 10-1
Current Morning Line Odds: 8-1

3 Starts, 2 Wins, Win Pct: 67%, Graded Stakes Win Pct: 100%
Last Three Starts: 5th, 1st (101 Beyer), 1st (101 Beyer)
Average Beyer Speed Figure of Last Two Starts: 101
Fastest 1 1/16th Mile Time: 1:41.95 at Santa Anita Park 9/27/14
Next Race: Rebel Stakes – March 14th
 American Pharoah’s Equibase Profile

4) Upstart (New York Bred – Won in 1st start) – Derby Points: 36
Sire: Flatter whose sire was A.P. Indy – 1992 Belmont Stakes & Breeders’ Cup Classic

Kentucky Derby Future Wager Final Odds: Pool #1: 53-1, Pool #2: 12-1
Current Morning Line Odds: 15-1

6 Starts, 3 Wins, Win Pct: 50%, Graded Stakes Win Pct: 25%
Last Three Starts: 3rd (93 Beyer), 1st (105 Beyer), 2nd–DQ from 1st (95 Beyer)
Average Beyer Speed Figure of Last Two Starts: 100
Fastest 1 1/16th Mile Time: 1:42.96 (calculated) at Santa Anita Park 11/1/14
Next Race: Florida Derby – March 28th
Upstart’s Equibase Profile

5) Carpe Diem (Kentucky Bred – Won in 1st start) – Derby Points: 14
Sire: Giant’s Causeway – Finished 2nd in the 2000 Breeders’ Cup Classic

Kentucky Derby Future Wager Final Odds: Pool #1: 15-1, Pool #2: 12-1
Current Morning Line Odds: 12-1

3 Starts, 2 Wins, Win Pct: 67%, Graded Stakes Win Pct: 50%
Last Three Starts: 1st, 1st (91 Beyer), 2nd (93 Beyer)
Average Beyer Speed Figure of Last Two Starts: 92
Fastest 1 1/16th Mile Time: 1:42.95 (calculated) at Santa Anita Park 11/1/14
Next Race: Tampa Bay Derby – March 7th
Carpe Diem’s Equibase Profile

6) Far From Over (Kentucky Bred – Won in 1st start) – Derby Points: 10
Sire: Blame – 2010 Breeders’ Cup Classic Winner

Kentucky Derby Future Wager Final Odds: Unlisted in both Pools
Current Morning Line Odds: 15-1

2 Starts, 2 Wins, Win Pct: 100%, Graded Stakes Win Pct: 100%
Last Three Starts: 1st (78 Beyer), 1st (96 Beyer)
Average Beyer Speed Figure of Last Two Starts: 82
Fastest 1 1/16th Mile Time: 1:43.93 at Aqueduct 2/7/15
Next Race: Gotham Stakes – March 7th
Far From Over’s Equibase Profile

7) International Star (New York Bred – Won in 1st Start) – Derby Points: 71
Sire: Fusaichi Pegasus – 2000 Kentucky Derby Winner

Kentucky Derby Future Wager Final Odds: Pool #1: Unlisted, Pool #2: 40-1
Current Morning Line Odds: 20-1

8 Starts, 4 Wins, Win Pct: 50%, Graded Stakes Win Pct: 50%
Last Three Starts: 4th, 1st (89 Beyer), 1st (93 Beyer)
Average Beyer Speed Figure of Last Two Starts: 91
Fastest 1 1/16th Mile Time: 1:43.82 at The Fairgrounds 2/21/15
Next Race: Louisiana Derby – March 28th
International Star’s Equibase Profile 

8) Ocho Ocho Ocho (Kentucky Bred – Won in 1st Start) – Derby Points: 10
Sire: Street Sense – 2007 Kentucky Derby Winner

Kentucky Derby Future Wager Final Odds: Pool #1: 29-1, Pool #2: 26-1
Current Morning Line Odds: 20-1

3 Starts, 3 Wins, Win Pct: 100%, Graded Stakes Win Pct: 100%
Last Three Starts: 1st (80 Beyer), 1st (83 Beyer), 1st (90 Beyer)
Average Beyer Speed Figure of Last Two Starts: 86.5
Fastest 1 1/16th Mile Time: 1:45.47 at Delta Downs 11/22/14
Next Race: San Felipe Stakes – March 7th
Ocho Ocho Ocho’s Equibase Profile 

Overall, I felt confident that the 2015 Kentucky Derby winner was listed in Pool #2, but I am 100% confident that he is in this pool. I would not recommend placing any bets on horses whose Morning Line Odds are greater than 30-1. This means do not waste your money on these 50-1 horses: Bolo, Danzig Moon, Keen Ice and Mr. Z.

Also, Khozan ended with 25-1 final odds in Pool #2 and he is coming off a win in his last start in a one mile race at Gulfstream. He is listed as 15-1 Morning Line Odds. Don’t buy into the hype. I felt that he was overbet in the last pool for what he had accomplished and I expect the same in this pool. I like horses who have proven that they can win in races longer than one mile (two-turns).

What am I going to do? I already placed a $20 bet on Texas Red in Pool #1 that will payout $302 if he wins. In this pool I am going to place $20 to $40 on Dortmund (horse #6) depending upon his live odds on Saturday morning. If only place $20 on Dortmund I will be looking for value and a price for any of the above horses.

Below is a ranking of the average Beyer Speed Figures of my top eight horses last two starts. Ties are broken by the higher speed in the last start.

Ranking By Average Beyer Speed Figures of Last Two Starts:
1) American Pharoah  101
2) Upstart  100
3) Dortmund  97
4) Texas Red  97
5) Carpe Diem  92
6) International Star  91
7) Ocho Ocho Ocho  86.5
8) Far From Over  82

You can follow the Future Wager Pool #3 Live Odds by clicking HERE.

You can see the full Kentucky Derby point standings by clicking HERE 

2015 Kentucky Oaks Future Wager Pool

For the Kentucky Oaks Future Wager Pool, I would recommend one filly only: Condo Commando. She has already won at the Oaks distance of 1 & 1/8th mile and she demolished that field in the Demoiselle Stakes winning by 11 1/2 lengths (shown below). She is listed as 8-1 Morning Line Odds and also coming off a win in the Busher Stakes. Take Charge Brandi was listed at 6-1 odds. She has a tremendous heart but I feel that Condo Commando is the more proven commodity at this point having won at 1 1/8th mile distance. So I am placing $20 on Condo Commando (horse #4) in  this Pool.

You can follow the live Kentucky Oaks Future Wager Pool Odds by clicking HERE

You can see the full Kentucky Oaks point standings by clicking HERE