Catch A Flight horse

Updated 2015 Breeders’ Cup Classic Rankings

Posted on by Michael J. Cox

Below is my updated Breeders’ Cup Classic rankings with the latest odds from usracing.com. I have put American Pharoah back on top ahead of Beholder and give my reasons why in their bios.

The races at Belmont Park coming this Saturday–the Jockey Club Gold Cup and the Kelso Handicap–will impact the next rankings. Check back Friday and I will have a preview of those two races plus the Champagne Stakes for 2 year-olds.

1) American Pharoah*  (3/2) –  He is back in my #1 spot due to the fact that he is training well and due to some concerns with Beholder. I truly believe that American Pharoah thought he had the Travers race won when he shook off Frosted. He has never experienced battling and separating from a horse only for another to come from the outside like gangbusters that late in the race. I think the added rest will do Pharoah well as he produced his best Beyer Speed Figure in the Haskell Invitational coming off a 2 month layoff. His next start of course will be the Breeders’ Cup Classic on October 31st.

Career: 10 Starts 8-1-0-0, Win Pct: 80%, Top 3 Pct: 90%, Top 4 Pct: 90%
Fastest 1 1/8 Mile Time: 1:47.95 – 8/2/15 (2015 Haskell Invitational)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:01.69 (calculated) – 8/29/15 (2015 Travers Stakes)
Best Finish in a 1 1/4 Mile Grade 1 Stakes Race: 1st – 2015 Kentucky Derby
Best Beyer Speed Figure in 2015: 109 – 2015 Haskell Invitational
Career Earnings: $5,900,300

2) Beholder*  (11-2) – She drops to #2 as I was expecting a better performance in the Zenyatta Stakes in which she produced the worst time of her three Zenyatta Stakes career wins (1:42.83 vs 1:42.19 in 2014 and 1:42.11 in 2013). Her Beyer Speed Figure was 99. Yes, it was warmer than usual at Santa Anita Park on Saturday. Yes, she won comfortably and by a bigger margin than the previous Zenyatta Stakes races. And yes, Gary Stevens never asked her to go so she had a little more left in the tank. However, she has legitimate concerns, acknowledged by her trainer Richard Mandella, on how well she will travel. She has never won outside of the state of California and her two most recent losses came at Belmont Park in the Ogden Phipps (4th) in June 2014 and the Kentucky Oaks (2nd) in May 2013. Nevertheless, she has reeled off six straight wins. And Beholder’s times are all faster than Pharoah’s at the 1 1/16 mile (1:41.67 vs 1:41.95), 1 1/8 mile (1:47.77 vs 1:47.95) and 1 1/4 mile (1:59.77 vs 2:01.69) distances. The 114 Beyer Speed Figure she received for her TVG Pacific Classic win is the top Beyer Speed Figure recorded in 2015 for races longer than 1 1/8 mile (source). Her next start will be the Breeders’ Cup Classic on October 31st even though she has also qualified for the Longines Distaff.

Career: 20 Starts 15-3-0-2, Win Pct: 75%, Top 3 Pct: 90%, Top 4 Pct: 100%
Fastest 1 1/8 Mile Time: 1:47.77 – 11/1/13 (2013 Breeders Cup Distaff)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 1:59.77 – 8/22/15 (2015 TVG Pacific Classic)
Best Finish in a 1 1/4 Mile Grade 1 Stakes Race: 1st – 2015 TVG Pacific Classic
Best Beyer Speed Figure in 2015: 114 – 2015 TVG Pacific Classic
Career Earnings: $4,436,600

3) Honor Code*  (8/1) – The Met-Mile winner with a blazing 112 Beyer Speed Figure. He produced another sizzling 113 Beyer Speed Figure in the Whitney Handicap. This makes his 5th place finish in the Alysheba Stakes puzzling. He has a nice pedigree, the son of A.P. Indy and the grandson of Seattle Slew. He has yet to race longer than 1 1/8th mile but I think he will fare even better in a 1 1/4 mile race–he is bred for distance. His next start will be the Kelso Handicap at Belmont Park on October 3rd.

Career: 9 Starts 6-2-0-0, Win Pct: 66.7%, Top 3 Pct: 88.9%, Top 4 Pct: 88.9%
Fastest 1 1/8 Mile Time: 1:47.82 – 8/8/15 (2015 Whitney Handicap)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: N/A
Best Beyer Speed Figure in 2015: 113 – 2015 Whitney Handicap
Career Earnings: $1,978,260

4) Liam’s Map (14/1) – His performance in the Woodward Stakes proved to me that this Todd Pletcher-trained horse is a rising star and a serious Breeders’ Cup Classic Contender. He received a 114 Beyer Speed Figure for his performance which ties Beholder’s 114 in the Pacific Classic as the top Beyer Speed Figure for 2015. Although it has been bandied about that he should be entered into the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile instead of the Classic, he’s got to be entered into the Classic in my opinion. He got faster at Saratoga in one month at the same 1 1/8th mile distance– 1:47.44–beating Honor Code’s time of 1:47.82 in the Whitney (whom he lost to by a neck).  Like Honor Code, he received a 113 Beyer Speed Figure in the Whitney. He has never finished below 2nd in 7 career starts and is a neck away from having 6 straight wins. His next start is uncertain and will depend on whether they are prepping him for the Breeders’ Cup Classic or Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile. He was nominated for the Jockey Club Gold Cup on October 3rd but was not entered.

Career: 7 Starts 5-2-0-0, Win Pct: 71.4%, Top 3 Pct: 100%, Top 4 Pct: 100%
Fastest 1 1/8 Mile Time: 1:47.44 – 9/5/15 (2015 Woodward Stakes)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: N/A
Best Beyer Speed Figure in 2015: 114 – 2015 Woodward Stakes
Career Earnings: $808,940

5) Tonalist  (10/1) – Last year’s Belmont Stakes and Jockey Club Gold Cup winner. For 2015, he has one win in the Westchester Stakes, two 2nd places finishes (Met Mile and Suburban Handicap) and a 3rd place finish (Whitney Handicap). His third place finish in the Whitney Handicap produced a 110 Beyer Speed Figure. He produced a 108 Beyer in the Suburban Handicap and a 111 Beyer in the Met Mile. And he performs better in races 1 1/4 mile or longer. He finished 5th in the Breeders’ Cup Classic last year. His next start will be defending his title in the Jockey Club Gold Cup on October 3rd.

Career: 13 Starts 5-4-2-1, Win Pct: 38.5%, Top 3 Pct: 84.6%, Top 4 Pct: 92.3%
Fastest 1 1/8 Mile Time: 1:48.1 (calculated) – 8/8/15 (2015 Whitney Handicap)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:00.69 (calculated) – 11/1/14 (2014 Breeders’ Cup Classic)
Best Finish in a 1 1/4 Mile Grade 1 Stakes Race: 1st – 2014 Jockey Club Gold Cup
Best Beyer Speed Figure in 2015: 111 – 2015 Metropolitan Handicap
Career Earnings: $2,497,000

6) Keen Ice (7/1) – A horse that finished 7th in the Kentucky Derby, 3rd in the Belmont Stakes and 2nd behind American Pharoah in the Haskell Invitational (105 Beyer Speed Figure). Then finally beating the Triple Crown winner in the Travers Stakes. His Beyer Speed Figure for the Travers Stakes was 106. He is an improving horse. His owner, Jerry Crawford of Donegal Racing, recently said: “We believe that (Keen Ice) is the fastest, best-bred 3-year-old in the world today.” Note that Keen Ice’s sire Curlin, won the 2007 Breeders’ Cup Classic. His next start was rumored to be the Jockey Club Gold Cup on October 3rd but he was not entered.

Career: 10 Starts 2-1-3-2, Win Pct: 20%, Top 3 Pct: 60%, Top 4 Pct: 80%
Fastest 1 1/8 Mile Time: 1:48.31 (calculated) – 8/2/15 (2015 Haskell Invitational)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:01.57 – 8/29/15 (2015 Travers Stakes)
Best Finish in a 1 1/4 Mile Grade 1 Stakes Race: 1st – 2015 Travers Stakes
Best Beyer Speed Figure in 2015: 106 – 2015 Travers Stakes
Career Earnings: $1,490,395

7) Frosted (14/1) – He has a 4th place finish in the Kentucky Derby, a 2nd place finish in the Belmont Stakes, a 3rd place finish in the Travers Stakes and a win in the Pennsylvania Derby.  With the Penn Derby win, he has now eclipsed over $2 Million in career earnings. He is a quality horse who has never finished below 4th place in 11 career starts. He shares the same sire (Tapit) as does Tonalist. I think he will have a great 4-year-old campaign. His next start should be the Breeders’ Cup Classic on October 31st.

Career: 12 Starts 3-6-1-2, Win Pct: 25%, Top 3 Pct: 83.3%, Top 4 Pct: 100%
Fastest 1 1/8 Mile Time: 1:48.85 (calculated) – 8/1/15 (2015 Jim Dandy Stakes)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:02.05 (calculated) – 8/29/2015 (2015 Travers Stakes)
Best Finish in a 1 1/4 Mile Grade 1 Stakes Race: 3rd – 2015 Travers Stakes
Best Beyer Speed Figure in 2015: 106 – 2015 Pennsylvania Derby
Career Earnings: $2,062,800

8) Effinex (80/1) – A temperamental horse with talent at the 1 1/4 mile distance. He acted up in the starting gate in the Woodward Stakes and finished 4th. Previous to this he had the weird run in the Brooklyn Handicap where he veered away from the rest of the pack coming around a turn and DNF’d. But the 2015 Suburban Handicap winner still has two of the top four Beyer Speed Figures this year for races 1 1/4th mile or longer: 107 Beyer at Aqueduct on April 25th and his 107 Beyer on July 4th at Belmont. His next start will be the Jockey Gold Cup at Belmont on October 3rd.

Career: 17 Starts 6-1-2-3, Win Pct: 35.2%, Top 3 Pct: 52.9%, Top 4%: 70.5%
Fastest 1 1/8 Mile Time: 1:48.44 (calculated) – 9/5/15 (2015 Woodward Stakes)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:01.55 – 7/4/15 (2015 Suburban Handicap)
Best Finish in a 1 1/4 Mile Grade 1 Stakes Race: N/A
Best Beyer Speed Figure in 2015: 107 – 2015 Excelsior Stakes
Career Earnings: $812,250

9) Coach Inge (45/1) – This Todd Pletcher-trained horse, I felt, was underrated entering the Woodward Stakes. He won the 1 1/2 mile Brooklyn Handicap back in June while demonstrating a fighting spirit and producing a 102 Beyer Speed Figure. He received a 106 Beyer Speed Figure for his 2nd place finish in the Woodward Stakes. For 2015, he has two wins, two 2nd place finishes and two 3rd place finishes. He seems to like distance and has finished in the mix with Liam’s Map, Tonalist and Effinex. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him spring an upset along the way similar to Keen Ice’s in the Whitney. Maybe it will be in his next start–the Jockey Gold Cup at Belmont October 3rd.

Career: 12 Starts 4-3-2-1, Win Pct: 33.3%, Top 3 Pct: 75%, Top 4%: 83.3%
Fastest 1 1/8 Mile Time: 1:48.2 (calculated) – 9/5/15 (2015 Woodward Stakes)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:01.77 (calculated) – 7/4/15 (2015 Suburban Handicap)
Best Finish in a 1 1/4 Mile Grade 1 Stakes Race: N/A
Best Beyer Speed Figure in 2015: 106 – 2015 Woodward Stakes
Career Earnings: $556,177

10) Smooth Roller* (?/1) – The surprise winner of the Awesome Again Stakes in just the 4th start of his career, it is hard to rank him much higher due to lack of experience. However, he did beat Bayern, Hoppertunity and Hard Aces and produced a eye-opening 111 Beyer Speed Figure in less than favorable weather conditions at Santa Anita. That speed figure is tied for the 5th best for races more than a mile. With the win, he has qualified for the Breeders’ Cup Classic and likely will be a longshot.

Career: 4 Starts 3-0-0-1, Win Pct: 75%, Top 3 Pct: 75%, Top 4 Pct: 100%
Fastest 1 1/8 Mile Time: 1:48.08 – 9/26/15 (2015 Awesome Again Stakes)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: N/A
Best Beyer Speed Figure in 2015: 111 – 2015 Awesome Again Stakes
Career Earnings: $261,810

11) Catch a Flight (24/1)  – The Argentinian horse has never finished below 3rd in his North American career thus far. He finished 3rd in the Santa Anita Handicap in March behind Shared Belief and Moreno, but beat Moreno in the Californian Stakes on May 30th (106 Beyer Speed Figure). He finished third behind Hard Aces and Hoppertunity in the Gold Cup at Santa Anita June 27th, but beat Hoppertunity in the San Diego Handicap. Then he finished 2nd behind Beholder in the TVG Pacific Classic. His next start may be the Awesome Again Stakes September 26th. It has not been confirmed that he will be pointed towards the Classic. His jockey Gary Stevens will opt to ride Beholder in the Classic, otherwise I would rank him higher.

Career (North America) : 8 Starts 4-1-3-0, Win Pct: 50%, Top 3 Pct: 100%, Top 4 Pct: 100%
Fastest 1 1/8 Mile Time: 1:47.73 – 5/30/14 (2015 Californian Stakes)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:01.09 (calculated) – 8/22/15 (2015 TVG Pacific Classic)
Best Finish in a 1 1/4 Mile Grade 1 Stakes Race: 2nd –2015 TVG Pacific Classic
Last 3 Beyer Speed Figures: 106 – 2015 Californian Stakes
Career Earnings: $773,239

12) Gleneagles (13/1)  – The 3 year-old colt from Ireland that has only raced on turf and never further than 1 mile. Winner of his last three races, including the St James’s Palace Stakes. I wouldn’t normally consider such a horse a threat in 1 1/4 mile dirt races in the US because you never know how a horse will respond on that surface and how they will react when they get dirt kicked up in their face. However, he is being pointed towards the Classic because his trainer feels that he has great tactical speed that will translate well on dirt. Remember that the British-trained turf horse Raven’s Pass won 2006 Breeders’ Cup Classic with the third fastest time (1:59.27) in Breeders’ Cup Classic history. So a few make the transition very well. He was scratched from his last start due to wet conditions. His next start is slated to be the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes at Ascot on October 17th.

Career: 9 starts 7-0-1-1, Win Pct: 77.8%, Top 3 Pct: 88.9%, Top 4 Pct: 100%
Fastest 1 1/8 Mile Time: N/A
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: N/A
Career Earnings: $1,404,108

13) Wicked Strong (24/1) – Last year’s Wood Memorial and Jim Dandy Stakes winner, he finished 4th in both the 2014 Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes. The 4 year-old Jimmy Jerkens colt sneaks into my Top 14 due consistency. He is winless in 2015, with one 2nd place finish, two 3rd place finishes, two 4th place finishes and a 5th place finish. He isn’t likely a Breeders’ Cup Classic winner but a top 4 finish is not out of the question. He next start is likely going to be the Breeders’ Cup Classic if he is nominated.

Career: 17 Starts 3-3-3-5, Win Pct: 17.6%, Top 3 Pct: 52.9%, Top 4 Pct: 82.3%
Fastest 1 1/8 Mile Time: 1:48.77 – 8/1/2015 (2015 Jim Dandy Stakes)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:02.64 (calculated) – 4/25/2015 (2015 Excelsior Stakes)
Best Finish in a 1 1/4 Mile Grade 1 Stakes Race: 2nd – 2014 Travers Stakes
Best Beyer Speed Figure in 2015: 104 – 2015 Woodward Stakes
Career Earnings: $1,734,460

14) Hard Aces* (45/1) – After two consecutive 6th places finishes, Hard Aces doesn’t appear to be a serious Classic contender but he hangs in my Top 14 due to having qualified for The Breeders’ Cup Classic with his win in the Gold Cup at Santa Anita. No word yet on whether he will be entered.

Career: 24 starts 6-3-7-2, Win Pct: 25%, Top 3 Pct: 66.7%, Top 4 Pct: 75%
Fastest 1 1/8 Mile Time: 1:48.37 (calculated) – 5/30/15 (2015 Californian Stakes)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:02.01 (calculated) – 8/22/15 (2015 TVG Pacific Classic)
Best Finish in a 1 1/4 Mile Grade 1 Stakes Race: 1st – 2015 Gold Cup
Best Beyer Speed Figure in 2015: 99 – 2015 Gold Cup
Career Earnings: $592,395

Off the Breeders’ Cup Classic Trail

Dortmund – Bob Baffert is targeting him for the Clark Handicap at Churchill Downs on November 27th.

Noble Bird* – Although he has qualified for the Classic, his trainer Mark Casse has decided to rest him for a couple of months with plans to bring him back next year.

Texas Red  –  He is sidelined for the rest of 2015 with a cannon bone bruise. Another setback for an extremely talented and promising horse.

* Indicates a horse who has already qualified for the Breeders’ Cup Classic.

Below is a ranking by Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Times for 2015 Breeders’ Cup Contenders. For calculated times of non-winning horses, I used the official race time of the winner and the following to compute an estimated time [One length is equal to 0.16 seconds, three-quarters of a length is equal to 0.12, a half-length equals 0.08, a neck is equal to 0.04, a head is equal to 0.02 and a nose is 0.01].

1) Beholder – 1:59.77 – 8/22/15 at Del Mar (1st in 2015 TVG Pacific Classic)
2) Tonalist – 2:00.69 (calculated) – 11/1/14 at Santa Anita (5th in 2014 Breeders’ Cup Classic)
3) Catch A Flight  – 2:01.09 (calculated) – 8/22/15 at Del Mar (2nd in 2015 TVG Pacific Classic)
4) Effinex  – 2:01.55 – 7/4/15 at Belmont Park (1st in 2015 Suburban Handicap)
5) Keen Ice – 2:01.57 – 8/29/15 at Saratoga (1st in 2015 Travers Stakes)
6) American Pharoah* –  2:01.69 (calculated) – 8/29/15 at Saratoga (2nd in 2015 Travers Stakes)
7) Coach Inge – 2:01.77 (calculated) – 7/5/15 at Belmont Park (3rd in 2015 Suburban Handicap)
8) Hard Aces*  –  2:02.01 (calculated) – 8/22/15 at Del Mar (6th in 2015 TVG Pacific Classic)
9) Frosted – 2:02.05 (calculated) – 8/29/15 at Saratoga (2nd in 2015 Travers Stakes)
10) Wicked Strong – 2:02.64 (calculated) – 4/25/15 at Aqueduct (3rd in 2015 Excelsior Stakes)

Honor Code, Liam’s Map, Smooth Roller and Gleneagles have never raced at the 1 1/4 mile distance.

Top Beyer Speed Figures in 2015 for races 1 1/4 Mile

1) Beholder (f) DMR 22 Aug 1 1/4M 114
2) Shared Belief SA 07 Mar 1 1/4M 111
3) Effinex AQU 25 Apr 1 1/4M 107
4) Effinex BEL 04 Jul 1 1/4M 107
5) Tonalist BEL 04 Jul 1 1/4M 107
6) Keen Ice SAR 29 Aug 1 1/4M 106
7) Red Rifle AQU 25 Apr 1 1/4M 106

–Michael

Frosted is Grrreat! in the Penn Derby – Updated 2015 Breeders’ Cup Classic Contenders.

Posted on by Michael J. Cox

Photo: Sophie Shore/Eclipse Sportswire

We have reached the time of the year where we only have two more weekends left of prep races for the Breeders’ Cup Classic. Yesterday’s Pennsylvania Derby (video shown below) produced no new rising stars as Frosted handled the field at PARX with a winning time of 1:50.04. The fractions were slow in the beginning of the race so that contributed to the pedestrian time. But Frosted did earn a 106 Beyer Speed Figure for this performance.

Currently, I believe that the top 6 horses in my rankings below are the only ones who have a chance of winning the Classic. The others all are candidates to finish in the money. American Pharoah and Beholder are both training well. American Pharoah’s times in these workouts have been quicker than Beholder’s. It appears that American Pharoah won’t race again until the Classic. This might be a great strategy as his best Beyer Speed Figure (109 in the Haskell Invitational) came after a 2 month layoff.

So below is my updated Breeders’ Cup Classic rankings with Wynn Las Vegas Odds from September 6th:

1) Beholder*  (5/1) – She confirmed that she likes distance and can race with the boys–the first female to win the Pacific Classic. She has reeled off five straight wins. Although a few will question why I have Beholder ranked ahead of American Pharoah, her times are all faster than Pharoah’s at the 1 1/16 mile (1:41.67 vs 1:41.95), 1 1/8 mile (1:47.77 vs 1:47.95) and 1 1/4 mile (1:59.77 vs 2:01.69) distances. Just like Pharoah against her competition, she hasn’t been pressed. And the 114 Beyer Speed Figure she received for her TVG Pacific Classic win is the top Beyer Speed Figure recorded in 2015 for races longer than 1 1/8 mile (source). Her next start will be the 1 1/16 mile Zenyatta Stakes at Santa Anita on September 26th and it has been confirmed that she will be entered into the Breeders’ Cup Classic.

Career: 20 Starts 15-3-0-2, Win Pct: 75%, Top 3 Pct: 90%, Top 4 Pct: 100%
Fastest 1 1/8 Mile Time: 1:47.77 – 11/1/13 (2013 Breeders Cup Distaff)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 1:59.77 – 8/22/15 (2015 TVG Pacific Classic)
Best Finish in a 1 1/4 Mile Grade 1 Stakes Race: 1st – 2015 TVG Pacific Classic
Last 3 Beyer Speed Figures: 114,97,98  Avg: 103
Career Earnings: $4,256,600

2) American Pharoah*  (3/2)  –  He dropped to #2 due to his performance in the Travers that was good but not “Pharoah” good. I take this as a blip on the radar at Saratoga–known as the Graveyard of Champions. One thing that is concerning though–his two toughest races have been the Kentucky Derby and the Travers Stakes (both 1 1/4 mile distance races as the Breeders’ Cup Classic will be). And to make matters worse, he will face tougher competition in the Breeders’ Cup Classic. But I truly believe after rewatching the Travers, that American Pharoah thought he had the race won when he shook off Frosted. He has never experienced battling and separating from a horse only for another to come from the outside like gangbusters that late in the race. He is training very well. His next start will be the Breeders’ Cup Classic on October 31st.

Career: 10 Starts 8-1-0-0, Win Pct: 80%, Top 3 Pct: 90%, Top 4 Pct: 90%
Fastest 1 1/8 Mile Time: 1:47.95 – 8/2/15 (2015 Haskell Invitational)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:01.69 (calculated) – 8/29/15 (2015 Travers Stakes)
Best Finish in a 1 1/4 Mile Grade 1 Stakes Race: 1st – 2015 Kentucky Derby
Last 3 Beyer Speed Figures: 105,109,105  Avg: 106.33
Career Earnings: $5,900,300

3) Honor Code*  (8/1) – The Met-Mile winner with a blazing 112 Beyer Speed Figure. He produced another sizzling 113 Beyer Speed Figure in the Whitney Handicap. This makes his 5th place finish in the Alysheba Stakes puzzling. He has a nice pedigree, the son of A.P. Indy and the grandson of Seattle Slew. He has yet to race longer than 1 1/8th mile but I think he will fare even better in a 1 1/4 mile race–he is bred for distance. His next start will likely be the Kelso Handicap at Belmont Park on October 3rd..

Career: 9 Starts 6-2-0-0, Win Pct: 66.7%, Top 3 Pct: 88.9%, Top 4 Pct: 88.9%
Fastest 1 1/8 Mile Time: 1:47.82 – 8/8/15 (2015 Whitney Handicap)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: N/A
Last 3 Beyer Speed Figures: 113,112,92  Avg: 105.67
Career Earnings: $1,978,260

4) Liam’s Map (15/1) – His performance in the Woodward Stakes proved to me that this Todd Pletcher-trained horse is a rising star and a serious Breeders’ Cup Classic Contender. He received a 114 Beyer Speed Figure for his performance which ties Beholder’s 114 in the Pacific Classic as the top Beyer Speed Figure for 2015. Although it has been bandied about that he should be entered into the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile instead of the Classic, he’s got to be entered into the Classic in my opinion. He got faster at Saratoga in one month at the same 1 1/8th mile distance– 1:47.44–beating Honor Code’s time of 1:47.82 in the Whitney (whom he lost to by a neck).  Like Honor Code, he received a 113 Beyer Speed Figure in the Whitney. He has never finished below 2nd in 7 career starts and is a neck away from having 6 straight wins. His next start is uncertain and will depend on whether they are prepping him for the Breeders’ Cup Classic or Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile.

Career: 7 Starts 5-2-0-0, Win Pct: 71.4%, Top 3 Pct: 100%, Top 4 Pct: 100%
Fastest 1 1/8 Mile Time: 1:47.44 – 9/5/15 (2015 Woodward Stakes)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: N/A
Last 3 Beyer Speed Figures: 114,113,106  Avg: 111
Career Earnings: $808,940

5) Tonalist  (14/1) – Last year’s Belmont Stakes and Jockey Club Gold Cup winner. For 2015, he has one win in the Westchester Stakes, two 2nd places finishes (Met Mile and Suburban Handicap) and a 3rd place finish (Whitney Handicap). His third place finish in the Whitney Handicap produced a 110 Beyer Speed Figure. He produced a 108 Beyer in the Suburban Handicap and a 111 Beyer in the Met Mile. And he performs better in races 1 1/4 mile or longer. He finished 5th in the Breeders’ Cup Classic last year. His next start will be defending his title in the Jockey Club Gold Cup on October 3rd.

Career: 13 Starts 5-4-2-1, Win Pct: 38.5%, Top 3 Pct: 84.6%, Top 4 Pct: 92.3%
Fastest 1 1/8 Mile Time: 1:48.1 (calculated) – 8/8/15 (2015 Whitney Handicap)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:00.69 (calculated) – 11/1/14 (2014 Breeders’ Cup Classic)
Best Finish in a 1 1/4 Mile Grade 1 Stakes Race: 1st – 2014 Jockey Club Gold Cup
Last 3 Beyer Speed Figures: 110,107,105  Avg: 107.33
Career Earnings: $2,497,000

6) Keen Ice  (12/1) – A horse that finished 7th in the Kentucky Derby, 3rd in the Belmont Stakes and 2nd behind American Pharoah in the Haskell Invitational (105 Beyer Speed Figure). Then finally beating the Triple Crown winner in the Travers Stakes. His Beyer Speed Figure for the Travers Stakes was 106. He is an improving horse. His owner, Jerry Crawford of Donegal Racing, recently said: “We believe that (Keen Ice) is the fastest, best-bred 3-year-old in the world today.” Note that Keen Ice’s sire Curlin, won the 2007 Breeders’ Cup Classic. His next start is rumored to be the Jockey Club Gold Cup on October 3rd.

Career: 10 Starts 2-1-3-2, Win Pct: 20%, Top 3 Pct: 60%, Top 4 Pct: 80%
Fastest 1 1/8 Mile Time: 1:48.31 (calculated) – 8/2/15 (2015 Haskell Invitational)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:01.57 – 8/29/15 (2015 Travers Stakes)
Best Finish in a 1 1/4 Mile Grade 1 Stakes Race: 1st – 2015 Travers Stakes
Last 3 Beyer Speed Figures: 106,105,96  Avg: 102.33
Career Earnings: $1,490,395

7) Frosted (14/1) – He has a 4th place finish in the Kentucky Derby, a 2nd place finish in the Belmont Stakes, a 3rd place finish in the Travers Stakes and a win in the Pennsylvania Derby.  With the Penn Derby win, he has now eclipsed over $2 Million in career earnings. He is a quality horse who has never finished below 4th place in 11 career starts. He shares the same sire (Tapit) as does Tonalist. I think he will have a great 4-year-old campaign. His next start should be the Breeders’ Cup Classic October 31st.

Career: 12 Starts 3-6-1-2, Win Pct: 25%, Top 3 Pct: 83.3%, Top 4 Pct: 100%
Fastest 1 1/8 Mile Time: 1:48.85 (calculated) – 8/1/15 (2015 Jim Dandy Stakes)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:02.05 (calculated) – 8/29/2015 (2015 Travers Stakes)
Best Finish in a 1 1/4 Mile Grade 1 Stakes Race: 3rd – 2015 Travers Stakes
Last 3 Beyer Speed Figures: 106,102,104  Avg: 104
Career Earnings: $2,062,800

8) Effinex  (75/1) – A temperamental horse with talent at the 1 1/4 mile distance. He acted up in the starting gate in the Woodward Stakes and finished 4th. Previous to this he had the weird run in the Brooklyn Handicap where he veered away from the rest of the pack coming around a turn and DNF’d. But the 2015 Suburban Handicap winner still has two of the top four Beyer Speed Figures this year for races 1 1/4th mile or longer: 107 Beyer at Aqueduct on April 25th and his 107 Beyer on July 4th at Belmont. His next start will probably be the Jockey Gold Cup at Belmont on October 3rd.

Career: 17 Starts 6-1-2-3, Win Pct: 35.2%, Top 3 Pct: 52.9%, Top 4%: 70.5%
Fastest 1 1/8 Mile Time: 1:48.44 (calculated) – 9/5/15 (2015 Woodward Stakes)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:01.55 – 7/4/15 (2015 Suburban Handicap)
Best Finish in a 1 1/4 Mile Grade 1 Stakes Race: N/A
Last 3 Beyer Speed Figures: 103,107,?
Career Earnings: $812,250

9) Coach Inge (50/1) – This Todd Pletcher-trained horse, I felt, was underrated entering the Woodward Stakes. He won the 1 1/2 mile Brooklyn Handicap back in June while demonstrating a fighting spirit and producing a 102 Beyer Speed Figure. He received a 106 Beyer Speed Figure for his 2nd place finish in the Woodward Stakes. For 2015, he has two wins, two 2nd place finishes and two 3rd place finishes. He seems to like distance and has finished in the mix with Liam’s Map, Tonalist and Effinex. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him spring an upset along the way similar to Keen Ice’s in the Whitney. His next start will be the Jockey Gold Cup at Belmont October 3rd.

Career: 12 Starts 4-3-2-1, Win Pct: 33.3%, Top 3 Pct: 75%, Top 4%: 83.3%
Fastest 1 1/8 Mile Time: 1:48.2 (calculated) – 9/5/15 (2015 Woodward Stakes)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:01.77 (calculated) – 7/4/15 (2015 Suburban Handicap)
Best Finish in a 1 1/4 Mile Grade 1 Stakes Race: N/A
Last 3 Beyer Speed Figures: 106,?,102  Avg: ?
Career Earnings: $556,177

10) Catch A Flight (15/1) – The Argentinian horse has never finished below 3rd in his North American career thus far. He finished 3rd in the Santa Anita Handicap in March behind Shared Belief and Moreno, but beat Moreno in the Californian Stakes on May 30th (106 Beyer Speed Figure). He finished third behind Hard Aces and Hoppertunity in the Gold Cup at Santa Anita June 27th, but beat Hoppertunity in the San Diego Handicap. Then he finished 2nd behind Beholder in the TVG Pacific Classic. His next start may be the Awesome Again Stakes September 26th. It has not been confirmed that he will be pointed towards the Classic. His jockey Gary Stevens will opt to ride Beholder in the Classic, so I am dropping him several spots.

Career (North America) : 8 Starts 4-1-3-0, Win Pct: 50%, Top 3 Pct: 100%, Top 4 Pct: 100%
Fastest 1 1/8 Mile Time: 1:47.73 – 5/30/14 (2015 Californian Stakes)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:01.09 (calculated) – 8/22/15 (2015 TVG Pacific Classic)
Best Finish in a 1 1/4 Mile Grade 1 Stakes Race: 2nd –2015 TVG Pacific Classic
Last 3 Beyer Speed Figures: 102,?, ?  Avg: ?
Career Earnings: $773,239

11) Hoppertunity (30/1)  – Not likely a Breeders’ Cup Classic winner but a horse who is consistent enough to finish in the money. In 10 career graded stakes race starts, he has never finished below 4th. In 2015, he has a win in the San Pasqual Stakes, two third place finishes in the San Antonio and Stephen Foster Handicap, lost to Hard Aces in the Gold Cup at Santa Anita by a nose and fourth place finishes in the San Diego Handicap and TVG Pacific Classic. No word on where his start will be but he was nominated for the Awesome Again Stakes race on September 26th. It has yet to be confirmed if he will be entered into the Classic. So I am dropping down the rankings several spots.

Career: 13 Starts 4-3-2-3, Win Pct: 30.7%, Top 3 Pct: 69.2%, Top 4 Pct: 92.3%
Fastest 1 1/8 Mile Time: 1:48.36 (calculated) – 4/5/14 (2014 Santa Anita Derby)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:01.33 (calculated) – 8/22/15 (2015 TVG Pacific Classic)
Best Finish in a 1 1/4 Mile Grade 1 Stakes Race: 2nd – 2015 Gold Cup
Last 3 Beyer Speed Figures: 99,100,99  Avg: 99.33
Career Earnings: $1,351,675

12) Dortmund (20/1) – He finished 3rd in the Kentucky Derby and 4th in the Preakness Stakes. Another Bob Baffert-trained horse that I feel that we haven’t seen the best from him yet. However, he suffered bruised ribs in a gate mishap in early August. He had been working out at Del Mar but worked out at Santa Anita September 12th turning 5 furlongs in 59.20. His next start is uncertain.

Career: 8 Starts 6-0-1-1, Win Pct: 75%, Top 3 Pct: 87.5%, Top 4 Pct: 100%
Fastest 1 1/8 Mile Time: 1:48.73 – 4/4/15 (2015 Santa Anita Derby)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:03.50 (calculated) – 5/2/15 (2015 Kentucky Derby)
Best Finish in a 1 1/4 Mile Grade 1 Stakes Race: 3rd – 2015 Kentucky Derby
Last 3 Beyer Speed Figures: ?,106,104  Avg: ?
Career Earnings: $1,579,400

13) Hard Aces*  (40/1) –  He has qualified for the Breeders’ Cup Classic with his win in the Gold Cup at Santa Anita. For 2015, he has two wins, a 3rd, a 4th and a 6th place finish in his most recent race–The TVG Pacific Classic. One wonders if his big win in the Gold Cup was more a byproduct of Victor Espinoza’s jockeying. His recent workouts at Del Mar have been good. His next start is uncertain but seems likely to be the Awesome Again Stakes on September 26th.

Career: 23 starts 6-3-7-2, Win Pct: 26.1%, Top 3 Pct: 69.6%, Top 4 Pct: 78.2%
Fastest 1 1/8 Mile Time: 1:48.37 (calculated) – 5/30/15 (2015 Californian Stakes)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:02.01 (calculated) – 8/22/15 (2015 TVG Pacific Classic)
Best Finish in a 1 1/4 Mile Grade 1 Stakes Race: 1st – 2015 Gold Cup
Last 3 Beyer Speed Figures: 93,99,99  Avg: 97
Career Earnings: $592,395

14) Gleneagles (14/1) – The 3 year-old colt from Ireland that has only raced on turf and never further than 1 mile. Winner of his last three races, including the St James’s Palace Stakes. I wouldn’t normally consider such a horse a threat in 1 1/4 mile dirt races in the US. However, he is being pointed towards the Classic because his trainer feels that he has great tactical speed that will translate well on dirt. And remember that the British-trained turf horse Raven’s Pass won 2006 Breeders’ Cup Classic with the third fastest time (1:59.27) in Breeders’ Cup Classic history. So a few make the transition very well.

Career: 9 starts 7-0-1-1, Win Pct: 77.8%, Top 3 Pct: 88.9%, Top 4 Pct: 100%
Fastest 1 1/8 Mile Time: N/A
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: N/A
Career Earnings: $1,404,108

Honorable Mention:

Wicked Strong (25/1)

Career: 17 Starts 3-3-3-5, Win Pct: 17.6%, Top 3 Pct: 52.9%, Top 4 Pct: 82.3%
Fastest 1 1/8 Mile Time: 1:48.77 – 8/1/2015 (2015 Jim Dandy Stakes)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:02.45 (calculated) – 8/29/2015 (2015 Travers Stakes)
Best Finish in a 1 1/4 Mile Grade 1 Stakes Race: 2nd – 2014 Travers Stakes
Last 3 Beyer Speed Figures: 104,103,100  Avg: 102.33
Career Earnings: $1,734,460

Off the Breeders’ Cup Trail

Noble Bird* – Although he has qualified for the Classic, his trainer Mark Casse has decided to rest him for a couple of months with plans to bring him back next year.

Texas Red  –  He is sidelined for the rest of 2015 with a cannon bone bruise. Another setback for an extremely talented and promising horse.

* Indicates a horse who has already qualified for the Breeders’ Cup Classic.

Below is a ranking by Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Times for 2015 Breeders’ Cup Contenders. For calculated times of non-winning horses, I used the official race time of the winner and the following to compute an estimated time [One length is equal to 0.16 seconds, three-quarters of a length is equal to 0.12, a half-length equals 0.08, a neck is equal to 0.04, a head is equal to 0.02 and a nose is 0.01].

1) Beholder – 1:59.77 – 8/22/15 at Del Mar (1st in 2015 TVG Pacific Classic)
2) Tonalist – 2:00.69 (calculated) – 11/1/14 at Santa Anita (5th in 2014 Breeders’ Cup Classic)
3) Catch A Flight  – 2:01.09 (calculated) – 8/22/15 at Del Mar (2nd in 2015 TVG Pacific Classic)
4) Hoppertunity  – 2:01.33 (calculated) – 8/22/15 at Del Mar (4th in 2015 TVG Pacific Classic)
5) Effinex  – 2:01.55 – 7/4/15 at Belmont Park (1st in 2015 Suburban Handicap)
6) Keen Ice – 2:01.57 – 8/29/15 at Saratoga (1st in 2015 Travers Stakes)
7) American Pharoah*  –  2:01.69 (calculated) – 8/29/15 at Saratoga (2nd in 2015 Travers Stakes)
8) Coach Inge – 2:01.77 (calculated) – 7/5/2015 at Belmont Park (3rd in 2015 Suburban Handicap)
9) Hard Aces*  –  2:02.01 (calculated) – 8/22/15 at Del Mar (6th in 2015 TVG Pacific Classic)
10) Frosted – 2:02.05 (calculated) – 8/29/2015 at Saratoga (2nd in 2015 Travers Stakes)
11) Texas Red – 2:02.45 (calculated) – 8/29/2015 (2015 Travers Stakes)
12) Dortmund – 2:03.50 (calculated) – 5/2/2015 at Churchill Downs (3rd in 2015 Kentucky Derby)

Honor Code, Liam’s Map and Gleneagles have never raced at the 1 1/4 mile distance.

Top Beyer Speed Figures in 2015 for races 1 1/4 Mile

1) Beholder (f) DMR 22 Aug 1 1/4M 114
2) Shared Belief SA 07 Mar 1 1/4M 111
3) Effinex AQU 25 Apr 1 1/4M 107
4) Effinex BEL 04 Jul 1 1/4M 107
5) Tonalist BEL 04 Jul 1 1/4M 107
6) Keen Ice SAR 29 Aug 1 1/4M 106
7) Red Rifle AQU 25 Apr 1 1/4M 106

The remaining “Win and You’re In” Breeders’ Cup Classic Races:

Sept. 26th – The Awesome Again Stakes at Santa Anita – 1 1/8 Mile – Purse: $300,000 – TVG
Oct. 3rd – Jockey Club Gold Cup Invitational at Belmont – 1 1/4 Mile – Purse: $1,000,000 – NBC

–Michael

Liam’s Map Prevails in Woodward Stakes – Updated Breeders’ Cup Classic Contender Rankings

Posted on by Michael J. Cox

Yesterday’s win by Liam’s Map in the Woodward Stakes has convinced me that this year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic is going to be–THE RACE OF THE 21st CENTURY. It will get the highest TV ratings in Breeders’ Cup history.

Initially dejected when I learned that California Chrome and Shared Belief wouldn’t be competing in the Classic due to injuries, well in two short months time the sport has generated a few new major stars. American Pharoah, Beholder, Honor Code and Liam’s Map are all better horses than California Chrome and Shared Belief–their times and Beyer Speed Figures back it up. Liam’s Map ran the fastest Woodward Stakes (shown below) since it was moved to Saratoga, besting Curlin’s and Rachel’s Alexandra’s time.

So below is my updated Breeders’ Cup Classic rankings. Note that a new horse from Ireland named Gleneagles has shown up on a few of these contender ranking lists. My thoughts–he is a 3-year-old turf horse who has never raced on dirt or at a distance longer than 1 mile. So, I don’t consider him to be a serious contender for the Classic at this point:

1) Beholder*  – She confirmed that she likes distance and can race with the boys–the first female to win the Pacific Classic. She has reeled off five straight wins. Although a few will question why I have Beholder ranked ahead of American Pharoah, her times are all faster than Pharoah’s at the 1 1/16 mile (1:41.67 vs 1:41.95), 1 1/8 mile (1:47.77 vs 1:47.95) and 1 1/4 mile (1:59.77 vs 2:01.69) distances. Just like Pharoah against her competition, she hasn’t been pressed. And the 114 Beyer Speed Figure she received for her TVG Pacific Classic win is the top Beyer Speed Figure recorded in 2015 for races longer than 1 1/8 mile (source). Her next start will be the 1 1/16 mile Zenyatta Stakes at Santa Anita on September 26th.

Career: 20 Starts 15-3-0-2, Win Pct: 75%, Top 3 Pct: 90%, Top 4 Pct: 100%
Fastest 1 1/8 Mile Time: 1:47.77 – 11/1/13 (2013 Breeders Cup Distaff)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 1:59.77 – 8/22/15 (2015 TVG Pacific Classic)
Best Finish in a 1 1/4 Mile Grade 1 Stakes Race: 1st – 2015 TVG Pacific Classic

2) American Pharoah*   –  He dropped to #2 due to his performance in the Travers that was good but not “Pharoah” good. I take this as a blip on the radar at Saratoga–known as the Graveyard of Champions. One thing that is concerning though–his two toughest races have been the Kentucky Derby and the Travers Stakes (both 1 1/4 mile distance races as the Breeders’ Cup Classic will be). And to make matters worse, he will face tougher competition in the Breeders’ Cup Classic. But I truly believe after rewatching the Travers, that American Pharoah thought he had the race won when he shook off Frosted. He has never experienced battling and separating from a horse only for another to come from the outside like gangbusters that late in the race. His next start will likely be the Breeders’ Cup Classic on October 31st.

Career: 10 Starts 8-1-0-0, Win Pct: 80%, Top 3 Pct: 90%, Top 4 Pct: 90%
Fastest 1 1/8 Mile Time: 1:47.95 – 8/2/15 (2015 Haskell Invitational)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:01.69 (calculated) – 8/29/15 (2015 Travers Stakes)
Best Finish in a 1 1/4 Mile Grade 1 Stakes Race: 1st – 2015 Kentucky Derby

3) Honor Code*  – The Met-Mile winner with a blazing 112 Beyer Speed Figure. He produced another sizzling 113 Beyer Speed Figure in the Whitney Handicap. This makes his 5th place finish in the Alysheba Stakes puzzling. He has a nice pedigree, the son of A.P. Indy and the grandson of Seattle Slew. He has yet to race longer than 1 1/8th mile but I think he will fare even better in a 1 1/4 mile race–he is bred for distance. His next start will likely be the Kelso Handicap at Belmont Park on October 3rd..

Career: 9 Starts 6-2-0-0, Win Pct: 66.7%, Top 3 Pct: 88.9%, Top 4 Pct: 88.9%
Fastest 1 1/8 Mile Time: 1:47.82 – 8/8/15 (2015 Whitney Handicap)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: N/A

4) Liam’s Map – His performance in the Woodward Stakes proved to me that this Todd Pletcher-trained horse is a rising star and a serious Breeders’ Cup Classic Contender. He received a 114 Beyer Speed Figure for his performance which ties Beholder’s 114 in the Pacific Classic as the top Beyer Speed Figure for 2015. Although it has been bandied about that he should be entered into the Breeders’ Cup Mile instead of the Classic, he’s got to be entered into the Classic in my opinion. He got faster at Saratoga in one month at the same 1 1/8th mile distance– 1:47.44–beating Honor Code’s time of 1:47.82 in the Whitney (whom he lost to by a neck).  Like Honor Code, he received a 113 Beyer Speed Figure in the Whitney. He has never finished below 2nd in 7 career starts and is a neck away from having 6 straight wins. His next start is uncertain.

Career: 7 Starts 5-2-0-0, Win Pct: 71.4%, Top 3 Pct: 100%, Top 4 Pct: 100%
Fastest 1 1/8 Mile Time: 1:47.44 – 9/5/15 (2015 Woodward Stakes)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: N/A

5) Tonalist  – Last year’s Belmont Stakes and Jockey Club Gold Cup winner. For 2015, he has one win in the Westchester Stakes, two 2nd places finishes (Met Mile and Suburban Handicap) and a 3rd place finish (Whitney Handicap). His third place finish in the Whitney Handicap produced a 110 Beyer Speed Figure. He produced a 108 Beyer in the Suburban Handicap and a 111 Beyer in the Met Mile. And he is better at races 1 1/4 mile or longer. He finished 5th in the Breeders’ Cup Classic last year. His next start will be the Jockey Club Gold Cup on October 3rd.

Career: 13 Starts 5-4-2-1, Win Pct: 38.5%, Top 3 Pct: 84.6%, Top 4 Pct: 92.3%
Fastest 1 1/8 Mile Time: 1:48.1 (calculated) – 8/8/15 (2015 Whitney Handicap)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:00.69 (calculated) – 11/1/14 (2014 Breeders’ Cup Classic)
Best Finish in a 1 1/4 Mile Grade 1 Stakes Race: 1st – 2014 Jockey Club Gold Cup

6) Keen Ice  – A horse that finished 7th in the Kentucky Derby, 3rd in the Belmont Stakes and 2nd behind American Pharoah in the Haskell Invitational (105 Beyer Speed Figure). Then finally beating the Triple Crown winner in the Travers Stakes. His Beyer Speed Figure for the Travers Stakes was 106. He is an improving horse. His owner, Jerry Crawford of Donegal Racing, recently said: “We believe that (Keen Ice) is the fastest, best-bred 3-year-old in the world today.” Note that Keen Ice’s sire Curlin, won the 2007 Breeders’ Cup Classic. His next start is rumored to be the Jockey Club Gold Cup on October 3rd.

Career: 10 Starts 2-1-3-2, Win Pct: 20%, Top 3 Pct: 60%, Top 4 Pct: 80%
Fastest 1 1/8 Mile Time: 1:48.31 (calculated) – 8/2/15 (2015 Haskell Invitational)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:01.57 – 8/29/15 (2015 Travers Stakes)
Best Finish in a 1 1/4 Mile Grade 1 Stakes Race: 1st – 2015 Travers Stakes

7) Catch A Flight – The Argentinian horse has never finished below 3rd in his North American career thus far. He is ridden by Hall of Fame jockey Gary Stevens, though will change if Beholder is entered in the Classic. He finished 3rd in the Santa Anita Handicap in March behind Shared Belief and Moreno, but beat Moreno in the Californian Stakes on May 30th (106 Beyer Speed Figure). He finished third behind Hard Aces and Hoppertunity in the Gold Cup at Santa Anita June 27th, but beat Hoppertunity in the San Diego Handicap. Then he finished 2nd behind Beholder in the TVG Pacific Classic. No word on when and where his next start will be.

Career (North America) : 8 Starts 4-1-3-0, Win Pct: 50%, Top 3 Pct: 100%, Top 4 Pct: 100%
Fastest 1 1/8 Mile Time: 1:47.73 – 5/30/14 (2015 Californian Stakes)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:01.09 (calculated) – 8/22/15 (2015 TVG Pacific Classic)
Best Finish in a 1 1/4 Mile Grade 1 Stakes Race: 2nd –2015 TVG Pacific Classic

8) Frosted – He has a 4th place finish in the Kentucky Derby, a 2nd place finish in the Belmont Stakes and a 3rd place finish in the Travers Stakes.  He is a quality horse who has never finished below 4th place in 11 career starts. His next start is rumored to be the Jockey Club Gold Cup on October 3rd.

Career: 11 Starts 2-6-1-2, Win Pct: 18.2%, Top 3 Pct: 81.8%, Top 4 Pct: 100%
Fastest 1 1/8 Mile Time: 1:48.85 (calculated) – 8/1/15 (2015 Jim Dandy Stakes)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:02.05 (calculated) – 8/29/2015 (2015 Travers Stakes)
Best Finish in a 1 1/4 Mile Grade 1 Stakes Race: 3rd – 2015 Travers Stakes

9) Hoppertunity  – Not likely a Breeders’ Cup Classic winner but a horse who is consistent enough to finish in the money. In 10 career graded stakes race starts, he has never finished below 4th. In 2015, he has a win in the San Pasqual Stakes, two third place finishes in the San Antonio and Stephen Foster Handicap, lost to Hard Aces in the Gold Cup at Santa Anita by a nose and fourth place finishes in the San Diego Handicap and TVG Pacific Classic. No word on where his start will be.

Career: 13 Starts 4-3-2-3, Win Pct: 30.7%, Top 3 Pct: 69.2%, Top 4 Pct: 92.3%
Fastest 1 1/8 Mile Time: 1:48.36 (calculated) – 4/5/14 (2014 Santa Anita Derby)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:01.33 (calculated) – 8/22/15 (2015 TVG Pacific Classic)
Best Finish in a 1 1/4 Mile Grade 1 Stakes Race: 2nd – 2015 Gold Cup

10) Effinex  – A temperamental horse with talent at the 1 1/4 mile distance. He acted up in the starting gate in the Woodward Stakes and finished 4th. Previous to this he had the weird run in the Brooklyn Handicap where he veered away from the rest of the pack coming around a turn and DNF’d. But the 2015 Suburban Handicap winner still has two of the top four Beyer Speed Figures this year for races 1 1/4th mile or longer: 107 Beyer at Aqueduct on April 25th and his 107 Beyer on July 4th at Belmont. His next start will probably be the Jockey Gold Cup at Belmont on October 3rd.

Career: 17 Starts 6-1-2-3, Win Pct: 35.2%, Top 3 Pct: 52.9%, Top 4%: 70.5%
Fastest 1 1/8 Mile Time: 1:48.44 (calculated) – 9/5/15 (2015 Woodward Stakes)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:01.55 – 7/4/15 (2015 Suburban Handicap)
Best Finish in a 1 1/4 Mile Grade 1 Stakes Race: N/A

11) Hard Aces*  –  He has qualified for the Breeders’ Cup Classic with his win in the Gold Cup at Santa Anita. For 2015, he has two wins, a 3rd, a 4th and a 6th place finish in his most recent race–The TVG Pacific Classic. One wonders if his big win in the Gold Cup was more a byproduct of Victor Espinoza’s jockeying. His recent workouts at Del Mar have been good. His next start is uncertain.

Career: 23 starts 6-3-7-2, Win Pct: 26.1%, Top 3 Pct: 69.6%, Top 4 Pct: 78.2%
Fastest 1 1/8 Mile Time: 1:48.37 (calculated) – 5/30/15 (2015 Californian Stakes)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:02.01 (calculated) – 8/22/15 (2015 TVG Pacific Classic)
Best Finish in a 1 1/4 Mile Grade 1 Stakes Race: 1st – 2015 Gold Cup

12) Dortmund – He finished 3rd in the Kentucky Derby and 4th in the Preakness Stakes. But remember that he has won 6 races out of 8 starts. Another Bob Baffert-trained horse that I feel that we haven’t seen the best from him yet. However, he suffered bruised ribs in a gate mishap in early August. But he did work out at Del Mar on August 24th, August 31st and September 6th. His next start is uncertain but don’t be surprised if he is entered into the Pennsylvania Derby on September 19th.

Career: 8 Starts 6-0-1-1, Win Pct: 75%, Top 3 Pct: 87.5%, Top 4 Pct: 100%
Fastest 1 1/8 Mile Time: 1:48.73 – 4/4/15 (2015 Santa Anita Derby)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:03.50 (calculated) – 5/2/15 (2015 Kentucky Derby)
Best Finish in a 1 1/4 Mile Grade 1 Stakes Race: 3rd – 2015 Kentucky Derby

13) Coach Inge – This Todd Pletcher-trained horse, I felt, was underrated entering the Woodward Stakes and mentioned this in my pre-race blog. He won the 1 1/2 mile Brooklyn Handicap back in June while demonstrating a fighting spirit and producing a 102 Beyer Speed Figure. He received a 106 Beyer Speed Figure for his 2nd place finish in the Woodward Stakes. For 2015, he has two wins, two 2nd place finishes and two 3rd place finishes. He seems to like distance and has finished in the mix with Liam’s Map, Tonalist and Effinex. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him spring an upset along the way similar to Keen Ice’s in the Whitney. His next start will be the Jockey Gold Cup at Belmont October 3rd.

Career: 12 Starts 4-3-2-1, Win Pct: 33.3%, Top 3 Pct: 75%, Top 4%: 83.3%
Fastest 1 1/8 Mile Time: 1:48.2 (calculated) – 9/5/15 (2015 Woodward Stakes)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:01.77 (calculated) – 7/4/15 (2015 Suburban Handicap)
Best Finish in a 1 1/4 Mile Grade 1 Stakes Race: N/A

14) Texas Red  – A fifth place finish in the Travers was disappointing but he is still recovering. He earned a 105 Beyer Speed Figure with his win in the Jim Dandy Stakes. He won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile as a two year old and was my early Kentucky Derby favorite before his injury. No word yet on when his next start will be.

Career: 9 Starts 3-3-1-1, Win Pct: 33.3%, Top 3 Pct: 77.8%, Top 4 Pct: 88.9%
Fastest 1 1/8 Mile Time: 1:48.77 – 8/1/2015 (2015 Jim Dandy Stakes)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:02.45 (calculated) – 8/29/2015 (2015 Travers Stakes)
Best Finish in a 1 1/4 Mile Grade 1 Stakes Race: 5th – 2015 Travers Stakes

Noble Bird* – UPDATE: Although he has qualified for the Classic, his trainer Mark Casse has decided to rest him for a couple of months with plans to bring him back next year. It appears that he is off the Breeders’ Cup Classic trail.

* Indicates a horse who has already qualified for the Breeders’ Cup Classic.

Honorable Mention: Wicked Strong

Below is a ranking by Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Times for 2015 Breeders’ Cup Contenders. For calculated times of non-winning horses, I used the official race time of the winner and the following to compute an estimated time [One length is equal to 0.16 seconds, three-quarters of a length is equal to 0.12, a half-length equals 0.08, a neck is equal to 0.04, a head is equal to 0.02 and a nose is 0.01].

1) Beholder – 1:59.77 – 8/22/15 at Del Mar (1st in 2015 TVG Pacific Classic)
2) Tonalist – 2:00.69 (calculated) – 11/1/14 at Santa Anita (5th in 2014 Breeders’ Cup Classic)
3) Catch A Flight  – 2:01.09 (calculated) – 8/22/15 at Del Mar (2nd in 2015 TVG Pacific Classic)
4) Hoppertunity  – 2:01.33 (calculated) – 8/22/15 at Del Mar (4th in 2015 TVG Pacific Classic)
5) Effinex  – 2:01.55 – 7/4/15 at Belmont Park (1st in 2015 Suburban Handicap)
6) Keen Ice – 2:01.57 – 8/29/15 at Saratoga (1st in 2015 Travers Stakes)
7) American Pharoah*  –  2:01.69 (calculated) – 8/29/15 at Saratoga (2nd in 2015 Travers Stakes)
8) Coach Inge – 2:01.77 (calculated) – 7/5/2015 at Belmont Park (3rd in 2015 Suburban Handicap)
9) Hard Aces*  –  2:02.01 (calculated) – 8/22/15 at Del Mar (6th in 2015 TVG Pacific Classic)
10) Frosted – 2:02.05 (calculated) – 8/29/2015 at Saratoga (2nd in 2015 Travers Stakes)
11) Texas Red – 2:02.45 (calculated) – 8/29/2015 (2015 Travers Stakes)
12) Dortmund – 2:03.50 (calculated) – 5/2/2015 at Churchill Downs (3rd in 2015 Kentucky Derby)

Honor Code, Liam’s Map and Noble Bird have never raced at the 1 1/4 mile distance.

Top Beyer Speed Figures in 2015 for races 1 1/4 Mile

1) Beholder (f) DMR 22 Aug 1 1/4M 114
2) Shared Belief SA 07 Mar 1 1/4M 111
3) Effinex AQU 25 Apr 1 1/4M 107
4) Effinex BEL 04 Jul 1 1/4M 107
5) Tonalist BEL 04 Jul 1 1/4M 107
6) Keen Ice SAR 29 Aug 1 1/4M 106
7) Red Rifle AQU 25 Apr 1 1/4M 106

The remaining “Win and You’re In” Breeders’ Cup Classic Races:

Sept. 26th – The Awesome Again Stakes at Santa Anita – 1 1/8 Mile – Purse: $300,000 – TVG
Oct. 3rd – Jockey Club Gold Cup Invitational at Belmont – 1 1/4 Mile – Purse: $1,000,000 – NBC

Other notable races:

Sept 19th – The Pennsylvania Derby at PARX – 1 1/8 Mile – Purse: $1,000,000 – TVG

–Michael

Keen Ice stuns Travers crowd. Updated Breeders’ Cup Rankings

Posted on by Michael J. Cox

After Keen Ice’s stunning upset of American Pharoah on Saturday (video shown below), there were hints from Zayat Stables that American Pharoah could be retired. This is premature and hopefully just an emotional response. The last Triple Crown winner to win the Travers Stakes was Whirlaway in 1941. Although the upset radar was in on in full force on Saturday at Saratoga–known as the Graveyard of Champions–nobody saw Keen Ice as the upset threat. Texas Red, Frosted, Upstart…yes but most had Keen Ice in their top 4 or 5. His recent workouts were mediocre.

The race played out like I thought it would through 9 furlongs–American Pharoah and Frosted. But Keen Ice came from literally nowhere and seemed to have an extragear that American Pharoah and Frosted didn’t have. You have got to be impressed with his effort. Keen Ice isn’t near the horse that American Pharoah is. He finished 7th in the Kentucky Derby, 3rd in the Belmont and 2nd in the Haskell Invitational behind American Pharoah. But he ran the race of his life Saturday and upset the Triple Crown champion.

American Pharoah will bounce back. But now the 5 year old mare Beholder is the odds-on favorite to win the Superbowl of horse racing in October–The Breeders’ Cup Classic.

Here is my updated Breeders’ Cup rankings and updated Vegas Odds. Please note that Palace Malice, who had been in some of my previous rankings, has been retired:

1) Beholder*  (6/1) – She confirmed that she likes distance and can race with the boys. She received a 114 Beyer Speed Figure for her TVG Pacific Classic win. The first female to win the Pacific Classic.  She has reeled off five straight wins. Her next start will be the Zenyatta Stakes at Santa Anita on September 26th.

Career: 20 Starts 15-3-0-2, Win Pct: 75%, Top 3 Pct: 90%, Top 4 Pct: 100%
Fastest 1 1/8 Mile Time: 1:47.77 – 11/1/13 (2013 Breeders Cup Distaffl)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 1:59.77 – 8/22/15 (2015 TVG Pacific Classic)
Best Finish in a 1 1/4 Mile Grade 1 Stakes Race: 1st – 2015 TVG Pacific Classic

2) American Pharoah* (5/2)  –  He drops to #2 due to his performance in the Travers that was good (he shook off Frosted) but not Pharoah good. I take this as a blip on the radar at Saratoga–known as the Graveyard of Champions. One thing that is concerning though. His two toughest races have been the Kentucky Derby and the Travers Stakes, both 1 1/4 mile distance races as the Breeders’ Cup Classic will be. And to make matters worse, he will face tougher competition in the Breeders’ Cup Classic. His next start is up in the air as his owner has hinted at retirement.

Career: 10 Starts 8-1-0-0, Win Pct: 80%, Top 3 Pct: 90%, Top 4 Pct: 90%
Fastest 1 1/8 Mile Time: 1:47.95 – 8/2/15 (2015 Haskell Invitational)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:01.69 (calculated) – 8/29/15 (2015 Travers Stakes)
Best Finish in a 1 1/4 Mile Grade 1 Stakes Race: 1st – 2015 Kentucky Derby

3) Honor Code* (6/1) – The Met-Mile winner with a blazing 112 Beyer Speed Figure. He produced another sizzling 113 Beyer Speed Figure in the Whitney Handicap. This makes his 5th place finish in the Alysheba Stakes puzzling. He has a nice pedigree, the son of A.P. Indy and the grandson of Seattle Slew. He has yet to race longer than 1 1/8th mile but I think he will fare even better in a 1 1/4 mile race–he is bred for distance. His next start could be the Jockey Gold Cup race October 3rd at Belmont Park.

Career: 9 Starts 6-2-0-0, Win Pct: 66.7%, Top 3 Pct: 88.9%, Top 4 Pct: 88.9%
Fastest 1 1/8 Mile Time: 1:47.82 – 8/8/15 (2015 Whitney Handicap)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: N/A

4) Tonalist (15/1)  – Last year’s Belmont Stakes and Jockey Club Gold Cup winner. For 2015, he has one win in the Westchester Stakes, two 2nd places finishes (Met Mile and Suburban Handicap) and a 3rd place finish (Whitney Handicap). His third place finish in the Whitney Handicap produced a 110 Beyer Speed Figure. He produced a 108 Beyer in the Suburban Handicap and a 111 Beyer in the Met Mile. And he is better at races 1 1/4 mile or longer. He finished 5th in the Breeders’ Cup Classic last year. His next start will be the Jockey Club Gold Cup on October 3rd.

Career: 13 Starts 5-4-2-1, Win Pct: 38.5%, Top 3 Pct: 84.6%, Top 4 Pct: 92.3%
Fastest 1 1/8 Mile Time: 1:48.1 (calculated) – 8/8/15 (2015 Whitney Handicap)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:00.69 (calculated) – 11/1/14 (2014 Breeders’ Cup Classic)
Best Finish in a 1 1/4 Mile Grade 1 Stakes Race: 1st – 2014 Jockey Club Gold Cup

5) Keen Ice (10/1) – A horse that finished 7th in the Kentucky Derby, 3rd in the Belmont Stakes and 2nd behind American Pharoah in the Haskell Invitational (105 Beyer Speed Figure) and then finally beat him in the Travers Stakes. His Beyer Speed Figure for the Travers was 106. He is improving. His next start is rumored to be the Jockey Club Gold Cup on October 3rd.

Career: 10 Starts 2-1-3-2, Win Pct: 20%, Top 3 Pct: 60%, Top 4 Pct: 80%
Fastest 1 1/8 Mile Time: 1:48.31 (calculated) – 8/2/15 (2015 Haskell Invitational)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:01.57 – 8/29/15 (2015 Travers Stakes)
Best Finish in a 1 1/4 Mile Grade 1 Stakes Race: 1st – 2015 Travers Stakes

6) Catch A Flight  (25/1) – The Argentinian horse has never finished below 3rd in his North American career thus far. He is ridden by Hall of Fame jockey Gary Stevens. He finished 3rd in the Santa Anita Handicap in March behind Shared Belief and Moreno, but beat Moreno in the Californian Stakes on May 30th (106 Beyer Speed Figure). He finished third behind Hard Aces and Hoppertunity in the Gold Cup at Santa Anita June 27th, but beat Hoppertunity in the San Diego Handicap. Then he finished 2nd and 8 1/4 lengths behind Beholder in the TVG Pacific Classic. No word on when and where his next start will be.

Career (North America) : 8 Starts 4-1-3-0, Win Pct: 50%, Top 3 Pct: 100%, Top 4 Pct: 100%
Fastest 1 1/8 Mile Time: 1:47.73 – 5/30/14 (2015 Californian Stakes)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:01.09 (calculated) – 8/22/15 (2015 TVG Pacific Classic)
Best Finish in a 1 1/4 Mile Grade 1 Stakes Race: 2nd –2015 TVG Pacific Classic

7) Frosted (18/1) – He has a 4th place finish in the Kentucky Derby, a 2nd place finish in the Belmont Stakes and a 3rd place finish in the Travers Stakes.  He is a quality horse who has never finished below 4th place in 11 career starts. His next start is rumored to be the Jockey Club Gold Cup on October 3rd.

Career: 11 Starts 2-6-1-2, Win Pct: 18.2%, Top 3 Pct: 81.8%, Top 4 Pct: 100%
Fastest 1 1/8 Mile Time: 1:48.85 (calculated) – 8/1/15 (2015 Jim Dandy Stakes)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:02.05 (calculated) – 8/29/2015 (2015 Travers Stakes)
Best Finish in a 1 1/4 Mile Grade 1 Stakes Race: 3rd – 2015 Travers Stakes

8) Liam’s Map (25/1) – Although it appeared that he faded a bit down the stretch in the Whitney Handicap, it was more like Honor Code dug in to beat him by a neck. You had to be impressed with this horse’s first graded stakes race against a highly talented field. Like Honor Code, he received a 113 Beyer Speed Figure in the Whitney. He has never finished below 2nd in 6 career starts. My only concern is how well will he be able to stretch out to a 1 1/4 mile? His next start is expected to be the Woodward Stakes September 5th.

Career: 6 Starts 4-2-0-0, Win Pct: 66.7%, Top 3 Pct: 100%, Top 4 Pct: 100%
Fastest 1 1/8 Mile Time: 1:47.86 (calculated) – 8/8/15 (2015 Whitney Handicap)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: N/A

9) Effinex (30/1)  – The Suburban Handicap winner, he has now produced two of the top four Beyer Speed Figures this year for races 1 1/4th mile or longer: 107 Beyer at Aqueduct on April 25th and his 107 Beyer on July 4th at Belmont. Sandwiched in between was a DNF in the Brooklyn Handicap where he oddly veered away from the rest of the pack coming around a turn. He worked out at Saratoga July 29th and August 2nd. His next start will be the Woodward Stakes at Saratoga on September 5th.

Career: 16 Starts 6-1-2-2, Win Pct: 37.5%, Top 3 Pct: 56.25%, Top 4%: 68.8%
Fastest 1 1/8 Mile Time: 1:48.51 – 4/11/15 (2014 Empire Classic)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:01.55 – 7/4/15 (2015 Suburban Handicap)
Best Finish in a 1 1/4 Mile Grade 1 Stakes Race: N/A

10) Hoppertunity  (22/1) – Not likely a Breeders’ Cup Classic winner but a horse who is consistent enough to finish in the money. In 10 career graded stakes race starts, he has never finished below 4th. In 2015, he has a win in the San Pasqual Stakes, two third place finishes in the San Antonio and Stephen Foster Handicap, lost to Hard Aces in the Gold Cup at Santa Anita by a nose and fourth place finishes in the San Diego Handicap and TVG Pacific Classic. No word on where his start will be.

Career: 13 Starts 4-3-2-3, Win Pct: 30.7%, Top 3 Pct: 69.2%, Top 4 Pct: 92.3%
Fastest 1 1/8 Mile Time: 1:48.36 (calculated) – 4/5/14 (2014 Santa Anita Derby)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:01.33 (calculated) – 8/22/15 (2015 TVG Pacific Classic)
Best Finish in a 1 1/4 Mile Grade 1 Stakes Race: 2nd – 2015 Gold Cup

11) Hard Aces* (25/1)  –  He has qualified for the Breeders’ Cup Classic with his win in the Gold Cup at Santa Anita. For 2015, he has two wins, a 3rd, a 4th and a 6th place finish. One wonders if his big win in the Gold Cup was more a byproduct of Victor Espinoza’s jockeying. His recent workouts at Del Mar have been good, most notably a 1:26.60 in 7 furlongs. His next start is uncertain.

Career: 23 starts 6-3-7-2, Win Pct: 26.1%, Top 3 Pct: 69.6%, Top 4 Pct: 78.2%
Fastest 1 1/8 Mile Time: 1:48.37 (calculated) – 5/30/15 (2015 Californian Stakes)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:02.01 (calculated) – 8/22/15 (2015 TVG Pacific Classic)
Best Finish in a 1 1/4 Mile Grade 1 Stakes Race: 1st – 2015 Gold Cup

12) Dortmund (25/1) – He finished 3rd in the Kentucky Derby and 4th in the Preakness Stakes. But remember that he has won 6 races out of 8 starts. Another Bob Baffert-trained horse that I expect to improve as I don’t think we have seen the best from him yet. However, he suffered bruised ribs in a gate mishap last week and his next start is uncertain.

Career: 8 Starts 6-0-1-1, Win Pct: 75%, Top 3 Pct: 87.5%, Top 4 Pct: 100%
Fastest 1 1/8 Mile Time: 1:48.73 – 4/4/15 (2015 Santa Anita Derby)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:03.50 (calculated) – 5/2/15 (2015 Kentucky Derby)
Best Finish in a 1 1/4 Mile Grade 1 Stakes Race: 3rd – 2015 Kentucky Derby

13) Texas Red (18/1) – A fifth place finish in the Travers was disappointing but he is still recoveringHe earned a 105 Beyer Speed Figure with his win in the Jim Dandy Stakes. He won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile as a two year old and was my early Kentucky Derby favorite before his injury. No word yet on when his next start will be.

Career: 9 Starts 3-3-1-1, Win Pct: 33.3%, Top 3 Pct: 77.8%, Top 4 Pct: 88.9%
Fastest 1 1/8 Mile Time: 1:48.77 – 8/1/2015 (2015 Jim Dandy Stakes)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:02.45 (calculated) – 8/29/2015 (2015 Travers Stakes)
Best Finish in a 1 1/4 Mile Grade 1 Stakes Race: 5th – 2015 Travers Stakes

14) Noble Bird* (20/1) – I am not sure what happened to Noble Bird in the Whitney Handicap where he finished dead last. He has qualified for the Breeders’ Cup Classic with his win in the Stephen Foster Handicap where he beat Lea while registering a 108 Beyer Speed Figure. His only downside is that he has never raced longer than 1 1/8 mile. His next start is uncertain.

Career: 11 Starts 4-3-0-1, Win Pct: 36.4%, Top 3 Pct:63.6%, Top 4 Pct: 73.7%
Fastest 1 1/8 Mile Time: 1:47.94 – 6/13/15 (2015 Stephen Foster Handicap)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: N/A

* Indicates a horse who has already qualified for the Breeders’ Cup Classic.

Below is a ranking by Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Times for 2015 Breeders’ Cup Contenders. For calculated times of non-winning horses, I used the official race time of the winner and the following to compute an estimated time [One length is equal to 0.16 seconds, three-quarters of a length is equal to 0.12, a half-length equals 0.08, a neck is equal to 0.04, a head is equal to 0.02 and a nose is 0.01].

1) Beholder*  – 1:59.77 – 8/22/15 at Del Mar (1st in 2015 TVG Pacific Classic)
2) Tonalist  – 2:00.69 (calculated) – 11/1/14 at Santa Anita (5th in 2014 Breeders’ Cup Classic)
3) Catch A Flight  – 2:01.09 (calculated) – 8/22/15 at Del Mar (2nd in 2015 TVG Pacific Classic)
4) Hoppertunity  – 2:01.33 (calculated) – 8/22/15 at Del Mar (4th in 2015 TVG Pacific Classic)
5) Effinex  – 2:01.55 – 7/4/15 at Belmont (1st in 2015 Suburban Handicap)
6) Keen Ice – 2:01.57 – 8/29/15 at Saratoga (1st in 2015 Travers Stakes)
7) American Pharoah*  –  2:01.69 (calculated) – 8/29/15 at Saratoga (2nd in 2015 Travers Stakes)
8) Hard Aces*  –  2:02.01 (calculated) – 8/22/15 at Del Mar (6th in 2015 TVG Pacific Classic)
9) Frosted – 2:02.05 (calculated) – 8/29/2015 at Saratoga (2nd in 2015 Travers Stakes)
10) Texas Red – 2:02.45 (calculated) – 8/29/2015 at Saratoga (5th in 2015 Travers Stakes)
11) Dortmund – 2:03.50 (calculated) – 5/2/2015 at Churchill Downs (3rd in 2015 Kentucky Derby)

Honor Code, Liam’s Map and Noble Bird have never raced at the 1 1/4 mile distance.

The remaining “Win and You’re In” Breeders’ Cup Classic Races:

Sept. 26th – The Awesome Again Stakes at Santa Anita – 1 1/8 Mile – Purse: $250,000 – TVG
Oct. 3rd – Jockey Club Gold Cup Invitational at Belmont – 1 1/4 Mile – Purse: $1,000,000 – NBC

Other Notable Classic Division Races:

Sept. 5th – The Woodward Stakes at Saratoga – 1 1/8 Mile – Purse: $600,000 –  NBCSN
–Michael

Behold! An impressive performance by Beholder

Posted on by Michael J. Cox

Beholder romps in the Pacific Classic – photo Nelvin C. Cepeda

A few weeks ago, it was Honor Code.  Yesterday, it was Beholder. Two great horses with a few question marks that have totally dazzled their skeptics. The 5-year-old mare Beholder had never raced longer than 1 1/8 mile. She had also never raced against this level of competition. But she romped in the 1 1/4 mile TVG Pacific Classic (video shown below), winning by 8 1/4 lengths and producing a sizzling time of 1:59.77. For comparison purposes, this time was faster than Shared Belief (2:00.28) and Game On Dude’s (2:00.69) times the two previous years. I had questioned Gary Stevens’ decision to ride Beholder over the more distance accomplished Catch a Flight from the Mandella stable. Catch a Flight is a great horse, he finished 2nd. But Gary Stevens knew what he was doing–Beholder liked the added distance. In fact, she excelled with the added distance.

Overall, this race gave us some valuable new information. Bayern, who finished 9th, is probably off the Breeders’ Cup Classic trail. Last year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic winner hasn’t been the same horse since his injury earlier in the year. He seems to start well but fades down the stretch. Hard Aces finished a disappointing 6th and it appears that his win in the 2015 Gold Cup may have been a fluke. Hoppertunity finished 4th. He has never finished below 4th in ten graded stakes races. Red Vine had a surprisingly nice run finishing 3rd. It will be interesting to see the Beyer Speed Figures for this race tomorrow.

At any rate, the 2015 Breeders Cup Classic is shaping up to be a monster media event if Beholder’s owner chooses to enter her and he is leaning that way. So here is your future Boxed Superfecta for the Breeders’ Cup Classic. I will post a more complete ranking list later in the week.

1) American Pharoah*  – He confirmed his #1 ranking with his performance in the Haskell Invitational with a sizzling 109 Beyer Speed Figure. He now has reeled off eight straight wins. He currently is ranked #1 in Longines World’s Best Racehorse rankings and ranked #1 in the most recent NTRA’s Top Thoroughbred poll. His next start has been confirmed to be the Travers Stakes August 29th.

Career: 9 Starts 8-0-0-0, Win Pct: 88.9%, Top 3 Pct: 88.9%, Top 4 Pct: 88.9%
Fastest 1 1/8 Mile Time: 1:47.95 – 8/2/15 (2015 Haskell Invitational)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:03.02 – 5/2/15 (2015 Kentucky Derby)
Best Finish in a 1 1/4 Mile Grade 1 Stakes Race: 1st – 2015 Kentucky Derby

2) Beholder*  – She confirmed that she likes distance and can race with the boys. She received a 114 Beyer Speed Figure for her TVG Pacific Classic win. The first female to win the Pacific Classic.  She has reeled off five straight wins. She is currently is ranked #3 in the August 17th NTRA’s Top Thoroughbred poll. My guess is that she will move up to #2 in the next poll. Her next start will be the Zenyatta Stakes at Santa Anita on September 26th.

Career: 20 Starts 15-3-0-2, Win Pct: 75%, Top 3 Pct: 90%, Top 4 Pct: 100%
Fastest 1 1/8 Mile Time: 1:47.77 – 11/1/13 (2013 Breeders Cup Distaffl)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 1:59.77 – 8/22/15 (2015 TVG Pacific Classic)
Best Finish in a 1 1/4 Mile Grade 1 Stakes Race: 1st – 2015 TVG Pacific Classic

3) Honor Code* – The Met-Mile winner with a blazing 112 Beyer Speed Figure. He produced another sizzling 113 Beyer Speed Figure in the Whitney Handicap. This makes his 5th place finish in the Alysheba Stakes puzzling. He has a nice pedigree, the son of A.P. Indy and the grandson of Seattle Slew. He ranks 2nd in NTRA’s Top Thoroughbred behind American Pharoah. He has yet to race longer than 1 1/8th mile and that is why I can’t rank him ahead of American Pharoah despite his impressive speed figures. But I am not concerned as I think he will fare even better in a 1 1/4 mile race–he is bred for distance. His next start could be the Jockey Gold Cup race October 3rd at Belmont Park.

Career: 9 Starts 6-2-0-0, Win Pct: 66.7%, Top 3 Pct: 88.9%, Top 4 Pct: 88.9%
Fastest 1 1/8 Mile Time: 1:47.82 – 8/8/15 (2015 Whitney Handicap)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: N/A

4) Tonalist  – Last year’s Belmont Stakes and Jockey Club Gold Cup winner. For 2015, he has one win in the Westchester Stakes, two 2nd places finishes (Met Mile and Suburban Handicap) and a 3rd place finish (Whitney Handicap). His third place finish in the Whitney Handicap produced a 110 Beyer Speed Figure. He produced a 108 Beyer in the Suburban Handicap and a 111 Beyer in the Met Mile. And he is better at races 1 1/4 mile or longer. He finished 5th in the Breeders’ Cup Classic last year. His next start will be the Jockey Club Gold Cup on October 3rd.

Career: 13 Starts 5-4-2-1, Win Pct: 38.5%, Top 3 Pct: 84.6%, Top 4 Pct: 92.3%
Fastest 1 1/8 Mile Time: 1:48.1 (calculated) – 8/8/15 (2015 Whitney Handicap)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:00.69 (calculated) – 11/1/14 (2014 Breeders’ Cup Classic)
Best Finish in a 1 1/4 Mile Grade 1 Stakes Race: 1st – 2014 Jockey Club Gold Cup

* – indicates horses who have already qualified for the Breeders’ Cup Classic

The remaining “Win and You’re In” Breeders’ Cup Challenge Races (Classic Division):

Sept. 26th – The Awesome Again Stakes at Santa Anita – 1 1/8 Mile – Purse: $250,000 – TVG
Oct. 3rd – Jockey Club Gold Cup Invitational at Belmont – 1 1/4 Mile – Purse: $1,000,000 – NBC

Other Notable Classic Division Races:

Aug. 29th – The Travers Stakes at Saratoga – 1 1/4 Mile – Purse: $1,000,000 – NBC
Sept. 5th – The Woodward Stakes at Saratoga – 1 1/8 Mile – Purse: $600,000 –  NBCSN

–Michael

TVG Pacific Classic Preview – Beholder vs The Boys

Posted on by Michael J. Cox

It is not too often that the girls compete against the boys but that is what we have tonight at 8:10pm CST in the TVG Pacific Classic at Del Mar with a 5 year old mare “Beholder” competing against some of the top Classic division horses like Bayern, Catch A Flight, Hard Aces and Hoppertunity. Beholder is great horse and she is the morning line favorite.

This 1 1/4 mile race is a “Win and You’re In” race for the Breeders’ Cup Classic and carries a $1 Million dollar purse. The race will be televised live on TVG. Due its 1 1/4 mile distance, this will be a good gauge for the Breeders’ Cup Classic. Below are post positions, weights, jockeys and morning line odds:

PP horse (weight) jockey/trainer odds

1. Class Leader (124) Smith/Sadler 15-1
2. Bailoutbobby (124) Graham/O’Neill 20-1
3. Bayern (124) Bejarano/Baffert 6-1
4. Hard Aces (124) Espinoza/Sadler 5-1
5. Red Vine (124) Rosario/Clement 6-1
6. Imperative (124) Nakatani/Baltas 12-1
7. Catch a Flight (124) Prat/Mandella 9-2
8. Hoppertunity (124) Garcia/Baffert 5-1
9. Beholder (119) Stevens/Mandella 5-2
10. Midnight Storm (124) Baze/D’Amato 20-1

Overall, my thoughts. Beholder is a formidable opponent. She is riden by Gary Stevens, who chose Beholder over Catch A Flight for his ride. I am a bit surprised by this decision because Beholder has never raced longer than 1 1/8 mile distance. Martin Garcia chose Hoppertunity over Bayern for his mount. No surprise there, Hoppertunity has been a better horse than Bayern this year.

Although she is the 5/2 morning line favorite, I don’t think Beholder will win this race. She has never raced longer than 1 1/8 mile. However, I do think she will finish in the money. I think the win will come down to three horses: Hoppertunity, Catch A Flight and Hard Aces, with Beholder being in the mix but fading a bit at the end. Red Vine is 6/1 odds but hasn’t raced longer than 1 3/8 miles where he finished 4th in an allowance race. Imperative is a 12/1 odds and finished 3rd in last year’s Pacific Classic. But he has had a few stinker performances since then.

Bayern hasn’t done anything this year to make me believe in will finish in the Top 4 as he has faded out down the stretch in shorter distance races. So this rules out an expensive Superfecta Box with five horses including Bayern. Bailoutbobby, Class Leader and Midnight Storm are the three longshots. As far as longshots having a chance to finish in the Top 4, I like Bailoutbobby’s chances the best. So here is my betting advice. How about a $4 Boxed Superfecta with four horses (4-7-8-9). This would cost $96. And hope that the longer odds horse of the four (most likely Hard Aces) wins the race as it will pay out nicer.

–Michael

Updated 2015 Breeders’ Cup Contender Rankings – American Pharoah and Honor Code 1-2

Posted on by Michael J. Cox

My updated Breeders’ Cup Classic Contender Rankings. Dropping out of my top 14 are Palace Malice and Lea. Palace Malice finished 4th in the Alydar Stakes. He didn’t seem to be much of a factor and really had labor to grind out a spot in the money against a mediocre field. Lea, who many experts picked to win the Whitney Handicap, had a disappointing 6th place finish and faded a bit towards the end. Nobody expected to see either of these horses backslide like they did. Same goes for Noble Bird who finished dead last in the Whitney but remains 14th in my rankings by virtue of already having secured a spot in the Breeders’ Cup Classic field.

1) American Pharoah*  – He confirmed his #1 ranking with his performance in the Haskell Invitational with a sizzling 109 Beyer Speed Figure. He now has reeled off eight straight wins. He currently is ranked #2 in Longines World’s Best Racehorse rankings and ranked #1 in the most recent NTRA’s Top Thoroughbred poll. His next start after the Haskell has not been confirmed but expected to be the Travers Stakes August 29th.

Career: 9 Starts 8-0-0-0, Win Pct: 88.9%, Top 3 Pct: 88.9%, Top 4 Pct: 88.9%
Fastest 1 1/8 Mile Time: 1:47.95 – 8/2/15 (2015 Haskell Invitational)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:03.02 – 5/2/15 (2015 Kentucky Derby)
Best Finish in a 1 1/4 Mile Grade 1 Stakes Race: 1st – 2015 Kentucky Derby

2) Honor Code* – The Met-Mile winner with a blazing 112 Beyer Speed Figure. He produced another sizzling 113 Beyer Speed Figure in the Whitney Handicap. This makes his 5th place finish in the Alysheba Stakes puzzling. He has a nice pedigree, the son of A.P. Indy and the grandson of Seattle Slew. He ranks 2nd in NTRA’s Top Thoroughbred behind American Pharoah. He has yet to race longer than 1 1/8th mile and that is why I can’t rank him ahead of American Pharoah despite his impressive speed figures. But I am not concerned as I think he will fare even better in a 1 1/4 mile race–he is bred for distance. His next start could be the Jockey Gold Cup race October 3rd at Belmont Park.

Career: 9 Starts 6-2-0-0, Win Pct: 66.7%, Top 3 Pct: 88.9%, Top 4 Pct: 88.9%
Fastest 1 1/8 Mile Time: 1:47.82 – 8/8/15 (2015 Whitney Handicap)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: N/A

3) Tonalist  – Last year’s Belmont Stakes and Jockey Club Gold Cup winner. For 2015, he has one win in the Westchester Stakes, two 2nd places finishes (Met Mile and Suburban Handicap) and a 3rd place finish (Whitney Handicap). His third place finish in the Whitney Handicap produced a 110 Beyer Speed Figure. He produced a 108 Beyer in the Suburban Handicap and a 111 Beyer in the Met Mile. And he is better at races 1 1/4 mile or longer. He finished 5th in the Breeders’ Cup Classic last year. His next start will be the Jockey Club Gold Cup on October 3rd.

Career: 13 Starts 5-4-2-1, Win Pct: 38.5%, Top 3 Pct: 84.6%, Top 4 Pct: 92.3%
Fastest 1 1/8 Mile Time: 1:48.1 (calculated) – 8/8/15 (2015 Whitney Handicap)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:00.69 (calculated) – 11/1/14 (2014 Breeders’ Cup Classic)
Best Finish in a 1 1/4 Mile Grade 1 Stakes Race: 1st – 2014 Jockey Club Gold Cup

4) Catch A Flight  – The Argentinian horse has never finished below 3rd in his North American career thus far. He has won 10 of 17 career starts, 4 out of 7 in North America. He is ridden by Hall of Fame jockey Gary Stevens and appears to be an upcoming horse who is getting better as his San Diego Handicap performance indicates. He finished 3rd in the Santa Anita Handicap in March behind Shared Belief and Moreno, but beat Moreno in the Californian Stakes on May 30th (106 Beyer Speed Figure). He finished third behind Hard Aces and Hoppertunity in the Gold Cup at Santa Anita June 27th, but beat Hoppertunity in the San Diego Handicap. His next start is confirmed as the TVG Pacific Classic at Del Mar on August 22nd.

Career (North America) : 7 Starts 4-0-3-0, Win Pct: 57.1%, Top 3 Pct: 100%, Top 4 Pct: 100%
Fastest 1 1/8 Mile Time: 1:47.73 – 5/30/14 (2015 Californian Stakes)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:01.37 (calculated) – 3/7/15 (2015 Santa Anita Handicap)
Best Finish in a 1 1/4 Mile Grade 1 Stakes Race: 3rd – 2015 Santa Anita Handicap

5) Liam’s Map – Although it appeared that he faded a bit down the stretch in the Whitney Handicap, it was more like Honor Code dug in to beat him by a neck. You had to be impressed with this horse’s first graded stakes race against a highly talented field. Like Honor Code, he received a 113 Beyer Speed Figure in the Whitney. He has never finished below 2nd in 6 career starts. My only concern is how well will he be able to stretch out to a 1 1/4 mile? However, he looks like a horse on the rise under the guise of one the top trainers in Todd Pletcher.

Career: 6 Starts 4-2-0-0, Win Pct: 66.7%, Top 3 Pct: 100%, Top 4 Pct: 100%
Fastest 1 1/8 Mile Time: 1:47.86 (calculated) – 8/8/15 (2015 Whitney Handicap)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: N/A

6) Effinex  – The Suburban Handicap winner, he has now produced two of the top four Beyer Speed Figures this year for races 1 1/4th mile or longer: 107 Beyer at Aqueduct on April 25th and his 107 Beyer on July 4th at Belmont. Sandwiched in between was a DNF in the Brooklyn Handicap where he oddly veered away from the rest of the pack coming around a turn. He worked out at Saratoga July 29th and August 2nd. His next start will be the Woodward Stakes at Saratoga on September 5th.

Career: 16 Starts 6-1-2-2, Win Pct: 37.5%, Top 3 Pct: 56.25%, Top 4%: 68.8%
Fastest 1 1/8 Mile Time: 1:48.51 – 4/11/15 (2014 Empire Classic)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:01.55 – 7/4/15 (2015 Suburban Handicap)
Best Finish in a 1 1/4 Mile Grade 1 Stakes Race: N/A

7) Hoppertunity  – Not likely a Breeders’ Cup Classic winner but a horse who is consistent enough to finish in the money. In 9 career graded stakes race starts, he has never finished below 4th. In 2015, he has a win in the San Pasqual Stakes, two third place finishes in the San Antonio and Stephen Foster Handicap, lost to Hard Aces in the Gold Cup at Santa Anita by a nose and a fourth place finish in the San Diego Handicap. He did 5 furlongs in one minute flat at Saratoga on August 7th. His next start will be the TVG Pacific Classic on August 22nd.

Career: 12 Starts 4-3-2-2, Win Pct: 33.3%, Top 3 Pct: 83.3%, Top 4 Pct: 91.7%
Fastest 1 1/8 Mile Time: 1:48.36 (calculated) – 4/5/14 (2014 Santa Anita Derby)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:02.47 (calculated) – 6/27/14 (2015 Gold Cup)
Best Finish in a 1 1/4 Mile Grade 1 Stakes Race: 2nd – 2015 Gold Cup

8) Hard Aces*  –  He has qualified for the Breeders’ Cup Classic with his win in the Gold Cup at Santa Anita. For 2015, he has two wins, a 3rd, a 4th and a 6th place finish. One wonders if his big win in the Gold Cup was more a byproduct of Victor Espinoza’s jockeying. His recent workouts at Del Mar have been good, most notably a 1:26.60 in 7 furlongs. His next start appears to be at Del Mar in the TVG Pacific Classic on August 22nd.

Career: 23 starts 6-3-7-2, Win Pct: 26.1%, Top 3 Pct: 69.6%, Top 4 Pct: 78.2%
Fastest 1 1/8 Mile Time: 1:48.37 (calculated) – 5/30/15 (2015 Californian Stakes)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:02.46 – 6/27/14 (2015 Gold Cup)
Best Finish in a 1 1/4 Mile Grade 1 Stakes Race: 1st – 2015 Gold Cup

9) Dortmund – He finished 3rd in the Kentucky Derby and 4th in the Preakness Stakes. But remember that he has won 6 races out of 8 starts. Another Bob Baffert-trained horse that I expect to improve as I don’t think we have seen the best from him yet. However, he suffered bruised ribs in a gate mishap last week and his next start that was pegged to be the TVG Pacific Classic at Del Mar on August 22nd, may be questionable.

Career: 8 Starts 6-0-1-1, Win Pct: 75%, Top 3 Pct: 87.5%, Top 4 Pct: 100%
Fastest 1 1/8 Mile Time: 1:48.73 – 4/4/15 (2015 Santa Anita Derby)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:03.50 (calculated) – 5/2/15 (2015 Kentucky Derby)
Best Finish in a 1 1/4 Mile Grade 1 Stakes Race: 3rd – 2015 Kentucky Derby

10) Frosted – He finished 2nd behind Texas Red in the Jim Dandy Stakes but he likes distance (his sire was Tapit). He finished 4th in the Kentucky Derby and 2nd in the Belmont Stakes–a quality horse who has never finished below 4th place in 10 career starts. His next start will be the Travers Stakes on August 29th.

Career: 10 Starts 2-6-0-2, Win Pct: 20%, Top 3 Pct: 80%, Top 4 Pct: 100%
Fastest 1 1/8 Mile Time: 1:48.85 (calculated) – 8/1/15 (2015 Jim Dandy Stakes)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:03.54 (calculated) – 5/2/2015 (2015 Kentucky Derby)
Best Finish in a 1 1/4 Mile Grade 1 Stakes Race: 4th – 2015 Kentucky Derby

11) Bayern – He stays in my top 14 due to past performance. He was last year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic winner. In 2015, he had two consecutive last place finishes (6th, 10th) in two starts before his 3rd place finish in the San Diego Handicap last month. It is blatantly obvious that he is not the horse he was in 2014 but he did improve in his last start. He worked out at Del Mar on August 5th and turned 6 furlongs in 1:11.60. That was an improvement over his last workout (1:13.20) at the same 6 furlong distance at Del Mar. His next start will be the TVG Pacific Classic on August 22nd, which will be very telling about his future.

Career: 13 Starts 6-1-2-0, Win Pct: 46.2%, Top 3 Pct: 69.2%, Top 4 Pct: 69.2%
Fastest 1 1/8 Mile Time: 1:46.96 – 9/20/14 (2014 Pennsylvania Derby)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 1:59.88 – 11/1/14 (2014 Breeders’ Cup Classic)
Best Finish in a 1 1/4 Mile Grade 1 Stakes Race: 1st – 2014 Breeders’ Cup Classic

12) Keen Ice – An improving horse who finished 7th in the Kentucky Derby, 3rd in the Belmont Stakes and 2nd behind American Pharoah in the Haskell Invitational with a 105 Beyer Speed Figure. His next start after the Haskell is not confirmed but expected to be the Travers Stakes August 29th.

Career: 10 Starts 1-1-3-2, Win Pct: 10%, Top 3 Pct: 50%, Top 4 Pct: 70%
Fastest 1 1/8 Mile Time: 1:48.31 (calculated) – 8/2/15 (2015 Haskell Invitational)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:03.02 – 5/2/15 (2015 Kentucky Derby)
Best Finish in a 1 1/4 Mile Grade 1 Stakes Race: 7th – 2015 Kentucky Derby

13) Texas Red – He earned a 105 Beyer Speed Figure with his win in the Jim Dandy Stakes. He won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile as a two year old and was my early Kentucky Derby favorite before his injury. He appears to be back on track heading down the stretch. His next start is expected to be the Travers Stakes August 29th.

Career: 8 Starts 3-3-1-1, Win Pct: 37.5%, Top 3 Pct: 75%, Top 4 Pct: 100%
Fastest 1 1/8 Mile Time: 1:48.77 – 8/1/2015 (2015 Jim Dandy Stakes)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: N/A

14) Noble Bird* – I am not sure what happened to Noble Bird in the Whitney Handicap where he finished dead last. Injury? No word yet. He has qualified for the Breeders’ Cup Classic with his win in the Stephen Foster Handicap where he beat Lea while registering a 108 Beyer Speed Figure. His only downside is that he has never raced longer than 1 1/8 mile. His next start is uncertain.

Career: 11 Starts 4-3-0-1, Win Pct: 36.4%, Top 3 Pct:63.6%, Top 4 Pct: 73.7%
Fastest 1 1/8 Mile Time: 1:47.94 – 6/13/15 (2015 Stephen Foster Handicap)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: N/A

* – indicates horses who have already qualified for the Breeders’ Cup Classic

Below is a ranking by Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Times for 2015 Breeders’ Cup Contenders.  I used times at the 1 & 1/4 mile mark from the 2015 Belmont Stakes for American Pharoah and Frosted since these times were better than their times in the Kentucky Derby. For calculated times of non-winning horses, I used the official race time of the winner and the following to compute an estimated time [One length is equal to 0.16 seconds, three-quarters of a length is equal to 0.12, a half-length equals 0.08, a neck is equal to 0.04, a head is equal to 0.02 and a nose is 0.01].

1) Bayern –  1:59.88 – 11/1/14 (2014 Breeders’ Cup Classic)
2) Tonalist  – 2:00.69 (calculated) – 11/1/14 (2014 Breeders’ Cup Classic)
3) Palace Malice  – 2:00.78 (calculated) – 9/28/13 (2013 Jockey Club Gold Cup)
4) Catch A Flight   – 2:01.37 (calculated) – 3/7/15 (2015 Santa Anita Handicap)
5) Effinex  – 2:01.55 – 7/4/15 (2015 Suburban Handicap)
6) American Pharoah  –  2:02.37 – 6/5/15 (2015 Belmont Stakes)
7) Hard Aces  –  2:02.46 – 6/27/14 (2015 Gold Cup)
8) Hoppertunity  –  2:02.47 (calculated) – 6/27/14 (2015 Gold Cup)
9) Frosted  –   2:02.69 (calculated) – 6/5/2015 (2015 Belmont Stakes)
10) Dortmund –  2:03.50 (calculated) – 5/2/15 (2015 Kentucky Derby)

Below is a ranking by Fastest 1 1/8 Mile Times for 2015 Breeders’ Cup Contenders. American Pharoah coasted home in the Haskell Invitational. Had Victor Espinoza raced him hard to the wire, his final time probably would have eclipsed the Haskell race record of 1:47.00.

1) Bayern – 1:46.96 – 9/20/14 (2014 Pennsylvania Derby)
2) Catch A Flight  – 1:47.73 – 5/30/14 (2015 Californian Stakes)
3) Honor Code* – 1:47.82 – 8/8/15 (2015 Whitney Handicap)
4) Liam’s Map – 1:47.86 (calculated) – 8/8/15 (2015 Whitney Handicap)
5) Noble Bird* – 1:47.94 – 6/13/15 (2015 Stephen Foster Handicap)
6) American Pharoah*  – 1:47.95 – 8/2/15 (2015 Haskell Invitational)
7) Tonalist  – 1:48.1 (calculated) – 8/8/15 (2015 Whitney Handicap)
8) Keen Ice – 1:48.31 (calculated) – 8/2/15 (2015 Haskell Invitational)
9) Hoppertunity  – 1:48.36 (calculated) – 4/5/14 (2014 Santa Anita Derby)
10) Hard Aces*  –  1:48.37 (calculated) – 5/30/15 (2015 Californian Stakes)
11) Effinex  – 1:48.51 – 4/11/15 (2014 Empire Classic)
12) Dortmund – 1:48.73 – 4/4/15 (2015 Santa Anita Derby)
13) Texas Red – 1:48.77 – 8/1/2015 (2015 Jim Dandy Stakes)
14) Frosted – 1:48.85 (calculated) – 8/1/15 (2015 Jim Dandy Stakes)

The remaining “Win and You’re In” Breeders’ Cup Challenge Races (Classic Division):

Aug. 22nd – The TVG Pacific Classic at Del Mar – 1 1/4 Mile – Purse: $1,000,000 – TVG
Sept. 26th – The Awesome Again Stakes at Santa Anita – 1 1/8 Mile – Purse: $250,000 – TVG
Oct. 3rd – Jockey Club Gold Cup Invitational at Belmont – 1 1/4 Mile – Purse: $1,000,000 – NBC

Other Notable Classic Division Races:

Aug. 29th – The Travers Stakes at Saratoga – 1 1/4 Mile – Purse: $1,000,000 – NBC
Sept. 5th – The Woodward Stakes at Saratoga – 1 1/8 Mile – Purse: $600,000 –  NBCSN

–Michael

Updated 2015 Breeders’ Cup Contender Rankings

Posted on by Michael J. Cox

This past weekend, the Jim Dandy Stakes and Haskell Invitational gave us the following information: American Pharoah showed no rustiness coming off a layoff. And Texas Red is back, edging out Frosted.

I still like Frosted over Texas Red in 1 1/4 mile race. In the Haskell Invitational, American Pharoah continued to prove his dominance making it 8 straight wins in a row. I loved the performance of 2nd-place finisher, Keen Ice, who came off the pace like gangbusters. This will bode well in a 1 1/4 mile race. Keen Ice is an improving horse. I don’t see him as one who can beat American Pharoah but one that could finish in the money in the Breeders’ Cup Classic if he makes it into the field.

So here’s my updated Breeders’ Cup Classic Rankings. Dropping out of my Top 14 are Constitution and Honor Code. Two really good horses but we will see how they fare in their next start.

1) American Pharoah*  – He confirmed his #1 ranking with his performance in the Haskell Invitational with a sizzling 109 Beyer Speed Figure. He now has reeled off 8 straight wins. He currently is ranked #2 in Longines World’s Best Racehorse rankings and ranked #1 in the most recent NTRA’s Top Thoroughbred poll. And much deserved as he is the first Triple Crown Winner in 37 years. His next start after the Haskell has not been confirmed but expected to be the Travers Stakes August 29th.

Career: 9 Starts 8-0-0-0, Win Pct: 88.9%, Top 3 Pct: 88.9%, Top 4 Pct: 88.9%
Fastest 1 1/8 Mile Time: 1:47.95 – 8/2/15 (2015 Haskell Invitational)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:03.02 – 5/2/15 (2015 Kentucky Derby)
Best Finish in a 1 1/4 Mile Grade 1 Stakes Race: 1st – 2015 Kentucky Derby

2) Tonalist  – Last year’s Belmont Stakes and Jockey Club Gold Cup winner. For 2015, he has one win in the Westchester Stakes and now two 2nd places finishes (Met Mile and Suburban Handicap). He finished 5th in the Breeders’ Cup Classic last year. His 108 Beyer in the Suburban Handicap ranks as the third highest speed figure this year for races 1 1/4 mile. His next start will be the Whitney Handicap this weekend on August 8th.

Career: 12 Starts 5-4-1-1, Win Pct: 41.7%, Top 3 Pct: 83.3%, Top 4 Pct: 91.7%
Fastest 1 1/8 Mile Time: 1:49.52 (calculated) – 7/26/14 (2014 Jim Dandy Stakes)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:00.69 (calculated)- 11/1/14 (2014 Breeders’ Cup Classic)
Best Finish in a 1 1/4 Mile Grade 1 Stakes Race: 1st – 2014 Jockey Club Gold Cup

3) Catch A Flight  – The Argentinian horse has never finished below 3rd in his North American career thus far, so that is where I am placing him in my rankings. He has won 10 of 17 career starts, 4 out of 7 in North America. He is ridden by Hall of Fame jockey Gary Stevens and appears to be an upcoming horse who is getting better as his San Diego Handicap performance indicates. He finished 3rd in the Santa Anita Handicap in March behind Shared Belief and Moreno, but beat Moreno in the Californian Stakes on May 30th (106 Beyer Speed Figure). He finished third behind Hard Aces and Hoppertunity in the Gold Cup at Santa Anita June 27th, but beat Hoppertunity in the San Diego Handicap. His next start is confirmed as the TVG Pacific Classic at Del Mar on August 22nd.

Career (North America) : 7 Starts 4-0-3-0, Win Pct: 57.1%, Top 3 Pct: 100%, Top 4 Pct: 100%
Fastest 1 1/8 Mile Time: 1:47.73 – 5/30/14 (2015 Californian Stakes)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:01.37 (calculated) – 3/7/15 (2015 Santa Anita Handicap)
Best Finish in a 1 1/4 Mile Grade 1 Stakes Race: 3rd – 2015 Santa Anita Handicap

4) Lea – In 2015, he has a win (Hal’s Hope Stakes), two second place finishes (Donn Handicap and Stephen Foster Handicap) and a third place finish. The third place finish was in the Dubai World Cup where he finished behind Prince Bishop and California Chrome. He has two impressive Beyer Speed Figures of 110 in the Hal’s Hope Stakes and 108 in the Stephen Foster Handicap. He is working out well at Saratoga. His next start will be the Whitney Handicap on August 8th.

Career: 16 Starts 7-4-3-1, Win Pct: 43.8%, Top 3 Pct: 87.5%, Top 4 Pct: 93.8%
Fastest 1 1/8 Mile Time: 1:46.86 – 2/9/14 (2014 Donn Handicap)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:03.88 (calculated)- 3/28/15 (2015 Dubai World Cup)
Best Finish in a 1 1/4 Mile Grade 1 Stakes Race: 3rd – 2015 Dubai World Cup

5) Palace Malice  – He finished 3rd in his only start in 2015 in the 6 furlong Diablo Stakes at Belmont on May 10th. He won four out of five races last year, most notably the Metropolitan Handicap. In 2013, he won the Belmont Stakes and Jim Dandy Stakes and finished 6th in the Breeders’ Cup Classic. Considered one of the best older horses last year. He was supposed to be entered in the Whitney Handicap but instead will be entered into Sunday’s $100,000 Alydar Stakes at Saratoga.

Career: 18 Starts 7-4-2-1, Win Pct: 38.9%, Top 3 Pct: 72.2%, Top 4 Pct: 77.8%
Fastest 1 1/8 Mile Time: 1:47.37 – 7/27/13 (2013 Jim Dandy Stakes)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:00.78 (calculated)- 9/28/13 (2013 Jockey Club Gold Cup)
Best Finish in a 1 1/4 Mile Grade 1 Stakes Race: 2nd – 2013 Jockey Club Gold Cup

6) Effinex  – The Suburban Handicap winner, he has now produced two of the top four Beyer Speed Figures this year for races 1 1/4th mile or longer: 107 Beyer at Aqueduct on April 25th and his 108 Beyer on July 4th at Belmont. He could be peaking and maturing at the right time. He worked out at Saratoga July 29th. His next start will be the Woodward Stakes at Saratoga on September 5th.

Career: 16 Starts 6-1-2-2, Win Pct: 37.5%, Top 3 Pct: 56.25%, Top 4%: 68.8%
Fastest 1 1/8 Mile Time: 1:48.51 – 4/11/15 (2014 Empire Classic)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:01.55 – 7/4/15 (2015 Suburban Handicap)
Best Finish in a 1 1/4 Mile Grade 1 Stakes Race: N/A

7) Dortmund – He finished 3rd in the Kentucky Derby and 4th in the Preakness Stakes. But remember that he has won 6 races out of 8 starts. Another Bob Baffert-trained horse that I expect to improve as I don’t think we have seen the best from him yet. His next start appears to be the TVG Pacific Classic at Del Mar on August 22nd.

Career: 8 Starts 6-0-1-1, Win Pct: 75%, Top 3 Pct: 87.5%, Top 4 Pct: 100%
Fastest 1 1/8 Mile Time: 1:48.73 – 4/4/15 (2015 Santa Anita Derby)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:03.50 (calculated) – 5/2/15 (2015 Kentucky Derby)
Best Finish in a 1 1/4 Mile Grade 1 Stakes Race: 3rd – 2015 Kentucky Derby

8) Hoppertunity  – In 2015, he has a win in the San Pasqual Stakes, two third place finishes in the San Antonio and Stephen Foster Handicap, lost to Hard Aces in the Gold Cup at Santa Anita by a nose and a fourth place finish in the San Diego Handicap. He is consistent and has never finished below 5th in 12 career starts. His next start will be the TVG Pacific Classic on August 22nd.

Career: 12 Starts 4-3-2-2, Win Pct: 33.3%, Top 3 Pct: 83.3%, Top 4 Pct: 91.7%
Fastest 1 1/8 Mile Time: 1:48.36 (calculated) – 4/5/14 (2014 Santa Anita Derby)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:02.47 (calculated) – 6/27/14 (2015 Gold Cup)
Best Finish in a 1 1/4 Mile Grade 1 Stakes Race: 2nd – 2015 Gold Cup

9) Hard Aces*  –  He has qualified for the Breeders’ Cup Classic with his win in the Gold Cup at Santa Anita. For 2015, he has two wins, a 3rd, a 4th and a 6th place finish. One wonders if his big win in the Gold Cup was more a byproduct of Victor Espinoza’s jockeying. His recent workouts at Del Mar have been very good. His next start appears to be at Del Mar in the TVG Pacific Classic on August 22nd.

Career: 23 starts 6-3-7-2, Win Pct: 26.1%, Top 3 Pct: 69.6%, Top 4 Pct: 78.2%
Fastest 1 1/8 Mile Time: 1:48.37 (calculated) – 5/30/15 (2015 Californian Stakes)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:02.46 – 6/27/14 (2015 Gold Cup)
Best Finish in a 1 1/4 Mile Grade 1 Stakes Race: 1st – 2015 Gold Cup

10) Frosted – He finished 2nd behind Texas Red in the Jim Dandy Stakes but he likes distance (his sire was Tapit). He finished 4th in the Kentucky Derby and 2nd in the Belmont Stakes. His next start will be the Travers Stakes on August 29th.

Career: 10 Starts 2-6-0-2, Win Pct: 20%, Top 3 Pct: 80%, Top 4 Pct: 100%
Fastest 1 1/8 Mile Time: 1:48.85 (calculated) – 8/1/15 (2015 Jim Dandy Stakes)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:03.54 (calculated) – 5/2/2015 (2015 Kentucky Derby)
Best Finish in a 1 1/4 Mile Grade 1 Stakes Race: 4th – 2015 Kentucky Derby

11) Bayern – Last year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic winner. He has had two consecutive last place finishes (6th, 10th) in two starts before his 3rd place finish in the San Diego Handicap. He is not the horse he was in 2014 but he did improve in his last start. His next start will be the TVG Pacific Classic on August 22nd.

Career: 13 Starts 6-1-2-0, Win Pct: 46.2%, Top 3 Pct: 69.2%, Top 4 Pct: 69.2%
Fastest 1 1/8 Mile Time: 1:46.96 – 9/20/14 (2014 Pennsylvania Derby)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 1:59.88 – 11/1/14 (2014 Breeders’ Cup Classic)
Best Finish in a 1 1/4 Mile Grade 1 Stakes Race: 1st – 2014 Breeders’ Cup Classic

12) Noble Bird* – He has qualified for the Breeders’ Cup Classic with his win in the Stephen Foster Handicap where he beat Lea while registering a 108 Beyer Speed Figure. He has won three out of his last four races. His only downside is that he has never raced longer than 1 1/8 mile. His next start will be the Whitney Handicap August 8th.

Career: 10 Starts 4-3-0-1, Win Pct: 40%, Top 3 Pct: 70%, Top 4 Pct: 80%
Fastest 1 1/8 Mile Time: 1:47.94 – 6/13/15 (2015 Stephen Foster Handicap)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: N/A

13) Keen Ice – An improving horse who finished 7th in the Kentucky Derby, 3rd in the Belmont Stakes and 2nd behind American Pharoah in the Haskell Invitational with a 105 Beyer Speed Figure His next start after the Haskell is not confirmed but expected to be the Travers Stakes August 29th.

Career: 10 Starts 1-1-3-2, Win Pct: 10%, Top 3 Pct: 50%, Top 4 Pct: 70%
Fastest 1 1/8 Mile Time: 1:48.31 (calculated) – 8/2/15 (2015 Haskell Invitational)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:03.02 – 5/2/15 (2015 Kentucky Derby)
Best Finish in a 1 1/4 Mile Grade 1 Stakes Race: 7th – 2015 Kentucky Derby

14) Texas Red – He earned a 105 Beyer Speed Figure with his win in the Jim Dandy Stakes. He was my early Kentucky Derby favorite before his injury. He appears to be back on track heading down the stretch. Could he be this year’s version of Shared Belief? Both horses won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile as two year olds but missed the Kentucky Derby due to injury.

Career: 8 Starts 3-3-1-1, Win Pct: 37.5%, Top 3 Pct: 75%, Top 4 Pct: 100%
Fastest 1 1/8 Mile Time: 1:48.77 – 8/1/2015 (2015 Jim Dandy Stakes)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: N/A

* – indicates horses who have already qualified for the Breeders’ Cup Classic

Below is a ranking by Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Times.  I used times at the 1 & 1/4 mile mark from the 2015 Belmont Stakes for American Pharoah and Frosted since these times were better than their times in the Kentucky Derby. For calculated times of non-winning horses, I used the official race time of the winner and the following to compute an estimated time [One length is equal to 0.16 seconds, three-quarters of a length is equal to 0.12, a half-length equals 0.08, a neck is equal to 0.04, a head is equal to 0.02 and a nose is 0.01].

1) Bayern –  1:59.88 – 11/1/14 (2014 Breeders’ Cup Classic)
2) Tonalist  – 2:00.69 (calculated) – 11/1/14 (2014 Breeders’ Cup Classic)
3) Palace Malice  – 2:00.78 (calculated) – 9/28/13 (2013 Jockey Club Gold Cup)
4) Catch A Flight   – 2:01.37 (calculated) – 3/7/15 (2015 Santa Anita Handicap)
5) Effinex  – 2:01.55 – 7/4/15 (2015 Suburban Handicap)
6) American Pharoah  –  2:02.37 – 6/5/15 (2015 Belmont Stakes)
7) Hard Aces  –  2:02.46 – 6/27/14 (2015 Gold Cup)
8) Hoppertunity  –  2:02.47 (calculated) – 6/27/14 (2015 Gold Cup)
9) Frosted  –   2:02.69 (calculated) – 6/5/2015 (2015 Belmont Stakes)
10) Dortmund –  2:03.50 (calculated) – 5/2/15 (2015 Kentucky Derby)
11) Lea –  2:03.88 (calculated) – 3/28/15 (2015 Dubai World Cup)

The remaining “Win and You’re In” Breeders’ Cup Classic Races:

Aug. 8th – The Whitney Handicap at Saratoga – 1 1/8 Mile – Purse: $1,500,000 – NBC
Aug. 22nd – The TVG Pacific Classic at Del Mar – 1 1/4 Mile – Purse: $1,000,000 – TVG
Sept. 26th – The Awesome Again Stakes at Santa Anita – 1 1/8 Mile – Purse: $250,000 – TVG
Oct. 3rd – Jockey Club Gold Cup Invitational at Belmont – 1 1/4 Mile – Purse: $1,000,000 – NBC

Other Notable Classic Division Races:

Aug. 29th – The Travers Stakes at Saratoga – 1 1/4 Mile – Purse: $1,000,000 – NBC
Sept. 5th – The Woodward Stakes at Saratoga – 1 1/8 Mile – Purse: $600,000 –  NBCSN

–Michael

Catch A Flight upsets Bayern & Hoppertunity – Updated Breeders’s Cup Classic Rankings

Posted on by Michael J. Cox

Catch A Flight wins the San Diego Handicap at Del Mar – (AP / BENOIT PHOTO)

The San Diego Handicap at Del Mar yesterday (shown below) provided a dramatic finish and much-needed information for any Breeders’ Cup Classic contender list. The San Diego Handicap was top-heavy in talent with entries Bayern, Hoppertunity and a very promising Argentinian horse named Catch A Flight. This race was 1 1/16th mile, so I am viewing it through 1 1/4 mile spectacles (same distance as the BCC).

My thoughts, Bayern is definitely not the same horse he was in 2014. He had no excuses with his 3rd place finish. He took the early lead where he has been successful in the past but tailed off at the end. But I take this a step forward after two last place finishes in 2015. Remember, he sat out earlier in the year due to a quarter crack in his hind foot  Overall, I was more impressed with Catch A Flight and Hoppertunity (who finished 4th) as both came on like gang-busters at the end.

So here is my updated Breeders’ Cup Classic Rankings with Wynn Las Vegas Odds

1) American Pharoah (5/2) – He currently is ranked #1 in Longines World’s Best Racehorse rankings and also ranked #1 in the most recent NTRA’s Top Thoroughbred poll. And much deserved as he is the first Triple Crown Winner in 37 years. His return to racing has been confirmed to be the Haskell Invitational August 2nd. His workouts are going well, he will wire the Haskell field. His next start after the Haskell is not confirmed but expected to be the Travers Stakes August 29th.

Career: 8 Starts 7-0-0-0, Win Pct: 87.5%, Top 3 Pct: 87.5%, Top 4 Pct: 87.5%
Fastest 1 1/8 Mile Time: 1:48.52 – 4/11/15 (2015 Arkansas Derby)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:03.02 – 5/2/15 (2015 Kentucky Derby)
Best Finish in a 1 1/4 Mile Grade 1 Stakes Race: 1st – 2015 Kentucky Derby

2) Tonalist (10/1) – Last year’s Belmont Stakes and Jockey Club Gold Cup winner. For 2015, he has one win in the Westchester Stakes and now two 2nd places finishes (Met Mile and Suburban Handicap). He finished 5th in the Breeders’ Cup Classic last year. His 108 Beyer in the Suburban Handicap ranks as the third highest speed figure this year for races 1 1/4 mile. His next start will be the Whitney Handicap on August 8th.

Career: 12 Starts 5-4-1-1, Win Pct: 41.7%, Top 3 Pct: 83.3%, Top 4 Pct: 91.7%
Fastest 1 1/8 Mile Time: 1:49.52 (calculated) – 7/26/14 (2014 Jim Dandy Stakes)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:00.69 (calculated)- 11/1/14 (2014 Breeders’ Cup Classic)
Best Finish in a 1 1/4 Mile Grade 1 Stakes Race: 1st – 2014 Jockey Club Gold Cup

3) Catch A Flight (20/1)  -The Argentinian horse has never finished below 3rd in his North American career thus far, so that is where I am placing him in my rankings. He has won 10 of 17 career starts, 4 out of 7 in North America. He is ridden by Hall of Fame jockey Gary Stevens and appears to be an upcoming horse who is getting better as his San Diego Handicap performance indicates. He finished 3rd in the Santa Anita Handicap in March behind Shared Belief and Moreno, but beat Moreno in the Californian Stakes on May 30th (106 Beyer Speed Figure). He finished third behind Hard Aces and Hoppertunity in the Gold Cup at Santa Anita June 27th, but beat Hoppertunity in the San Diego Handicap. His next start is confirmed as the TVG Pacific Classic at Del Mar on August 22nd.

Career (North America) : 7 Starts 4-0-3-0, Win Pct: 57.1%, Top 3 Pct: 100%, Top 4 Pct: 100%
Fastest 1 1/8 Mile Time: 1:47.73 – 5/30/14 (2015 Californian Stakes)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:01.37 (calculated) – 3/7/15 (2015 Santa Anita Handicap)
Best Finish in a 1 1/4 Mile Grade 1 Stakes Race: 3rd – 2015 Santa Anita Handicap

4) Lea (20/1) – In 2015, he has a win (Hal’s Hope Stakes), two second place finishes (Donn Handicap and Stephen Foster Handicap) and a third place finish. The third place finish was in the Dubai World Cup where he finished behind Prince Bishop and California Chrome. He has two impressive Beyer Speed Figures of 110 in the Hal’s Hope Stakes and 108 in the Stephen Foster Handicap. He is working out well at Saratoga. His next start will be the Whitney Handicap on August 8th.

Career: 16 Starts 7-4-3-1, Win Pct: 43.8%, Top 3 Pct: 87.5%, Top 4 Pct: 93.8%
Fastest 1 1/8 Mile Time: 1:46.86 – 2/9/14 (2014 Donn Handicap)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:03.88 (calculated)- 3/28/15 (2015 Dubai World Cup)
Best Finish in a 1 1/4 Mile Grade 1 Stakes Race: 3rd – 2015 Dubai World Cup

5) Palace Malice (6/1) – He finished 3rd in his only start in 2015 in the 6 furlong Diablo Stakes at Belmont on May 10th. He won four out of five races last year, most notably the Metropolitan Handicap. In 2013, he won the Belmont Stakes and Jim Dandy Stakes and finished 6th in the Breeders’ Cup Classic. Considered one of the best older horses last year. I will say that 6/1 odds for a horse that has yet to race this year is too rich. He did work out July 4th and July 20th at Saratoga. His next start will be the Whitney Handicap on August 8th.

Career: 18 Starts 7-4-2-1, Win Pct: 38.9%, Top 3 Pct: 72.2%, Top 4 Pct: 77.8%
Fastest 1 1/8 Mile Time: 1:47.37 – 7/27/13 (2013 Jim Dandy Stakes)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:00.78 (calculated)- 9/28/13 (2013 Jockey Club Gold Cup)
Best Finish in a 1 1/4 Mile Grade 1 Stakes Race: 2nd – 2013 Jockey Club Gold Cup

6) Effinex (50/1) – The Suburban Handicap winner, he has now produced two of the top four Beyer Speed Figures this year for races 1 1/4th mile or longer: 107 Beyer at Aqueduct on April 25th and his 108 Beyer on July 4th at Belmont. He could be peaking and maturing at the right time. He has yet to work out this month. His next start will be at Saratoga for the Whitney Handicap on August 8th.

Career: 16 Starts 6-1-2-2, Win Pct: 37.5%, Top 3 Pct: 56.25%, Top 4%: 68.8%
Fastest 1 1/8 Mile Time: 1:48.51 – 4/11/15 (2014 Empire Classic)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:01.55 – 7/4/15 (2015 Suburban Handicap)
Best Finish in a 1 1/4 Mile Grade 1 Stakes Race: N/A

7) Dortmund (12/1) – He finished 3rd in the Kentucky Derby and 4th in the Preakness Stakes. But remember that he has won 6 races out of 8 starts. Another Bob Baffert-trained horse that I expect to improve as I don’t think we have seen the best from him yet. He was supposed to be entered into the Los Alamitos Derby on July 4th but his next start appears to be the Jim Dandy Stakes on August 1st.

Career: 8 Starts 6-0-1-1, Win Pct: 75%, Top 3 Pct: 87.5%, Top 4 Pct: 100%
Fastest 1 1/8 Mile Time: 1:48.73 – 4/4/15 (2015 Santa Anita Derby)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:03.50 (calculated) – 5/2/15 (2015 Kentucky Derby)
Best Finish in a 1 1/4 Mile Grade 1 Stakes Race: 3rd – 2015 Kentucky Derby

8) Hoppertunity (10/1)  – In 2015, he has a win in the San Pasqual Stakes, two third place finishes in the San Antonio and Stephen Foster Handicap, lost to Hard Aces in the Gold Cup at Santa Anita by a nose and a fourth place finish in the San Diego Handicap. He is consistent and has never finished below 5th in 12 career starts. His next start will be the TVG Pacific Classic on August 22nd.

Career: 12 Starts 4-3-2-2, Win Pct: 33.3%, Top 3 Pct: 83.3%, Top 4 Pct: 91.7%
Fastest 1 1/8 Mile Time: 1:48.36 (calculated) – 4/5/14 (2014 Santa Anita Derby)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:02.47 (calculated) – 6/27/14 (2015 Gold Cup)
Best Finish in a 1 1/4 Mile Grade 1 Stakes Race: 2nd – 2015 Gold Cup

9) Frosted (15/1) – Like Tonalist and Constitution, the son of Tapit. The winner of the Wood Memorial where he posted a 103 Beyer Speed Figure. He finished 4th in the Kentucky Derby and 2nd in the Belmont Stakes. His next start is likely to be the Jim Dandy Stakes August 1st, followed by Travers Stakes on August 29th.

Career: 9 Starts 2-5-0-2, Win Pct: 22.2%, Top 3 Pct: 77.8%, Top 4 Pct: 100%
Fastest 1 1/8 Mile Time: 1:50.31 – 4/4/15 (2015 Wood Memorial)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:03.54 (calculated) – 5/2/2015 (2015 Kentucky Derby)
Best Finish in a 1 1/4 Mile Grade 1 Stakes Race: 4th – 2015 Kentucky Derby

10) Hard Aces* (25/1) –  He has qualified for the Breeders’ Cup Classic with his win in the Gold Cup at Santa Anita. For 2015, he has two wins, a 3rd, a 4th and a 6th place finish. One wonders if his big win in the Gold Cup was more a byproduct of Victor Espinoza’s jockeying. His workouts of late haven’t been impressive. No word on when his next start will be.

Career: 23 starts 6-3-7-2, Win Pct: 26.1%, Top 3 Pct: 69.6%, Top 4 Pct: 78.2%
Fastest 1 1/8 Mile Time: 1:48.37 (calculated) – 5/30/15 (2015 Californian Stakes)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:02.46 – 6/27/14 (2015 Gold Cup)
Best Finish in a 1 1/4 Mile Grade 1 Stakes Race: 1st – 2015 Gold Cup

11) Bayern (25/1) – Last year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic winner. He has had two consecutive last place finishes (6th, 10th) in two starts before his 3rd place finish in the San Diego Handicap. No word on when his next start will be.

Career: 13 Starts 6-1-2-0, Win Pct: 46.2%, Top 3 Pct: 69.2%, Top 4 Pct: 69.2%
Fastest 1 1/8 Mile Time: 1:46.96 – 9/20/14 (2014 Pennsylvania Derby)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 1:59.88 – 11/1/14 (2014 Breeders’ Cup Classic)
Best Finish in a 1 1/4 Mile Grade 1 Stakes Race: 1st – 2014 Breeders’ Cup Classic

12) Noble Bird* (No Odds) – He has qualified for the Breeders’ Cup Classic with his win in the Stephen Foster Handicap where he beat Lea while registering a 108 Beyer Speed Figure. Why Wynn Las Vegas has no odds listed for him is puzzling. He has won three out of his last four races. His only downside is that he has never raced longer than 1 1/8 mile. His next start is expected to be the Whitney Handicap August 8th.

Career: 10 Starts 4-3-0-1, Win Pct: 40%, Top 3 Pct: 70%, Top 4 Pct: 80%
Fastest 1 1/8 Mile Time: 1:47.94 – 6/13/15 (2015 Stephen Foster Handicap)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: N/A

13) Constitution (11/1) – Winner of 4 out 6 career starts which includes the Donn Handicap earlier in the year. Currently tied with Shared Belief for the Top Beyer Speed Figure in 2015 for races longer than a mile with a speed figure of 111. He has never raced longer than a 1 1/8th  mile. However, with his pedigree (Sire Tapit), I have no concerns that he will have distance issues. He has been working out, but no word on when this Todd Pletcher-trained horse’s next start will be.

Career: 6 Starts 4-0-1-1, Win Pct: 66.7%, Top 3 Pct: 83.3%, Top 4 Pct: 100%
Fastest 1 1/8 Mile Time: 1:49.16 – 3/29/14 (2014 Florida Derby)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: N/A

14) Honor Code (15/1) – The Met-Mile winner with a blazing 112 Beyer Speed Figure. He has a 5th place finish in th Alysheba Stakes and a win in the Gulfstream Park Handicap in his other two starts in 2015. He has a nice pedigree, the son of A.P. Indy and the grandson of Seattle Slew. He has yet to race longer than 1 1/8th mile but I am not concerned as he is bred for distance. He demonstrated that he has closing speed in the Met Mile. His last two workouts have been less than impressive but he is a closer. His next start will be the Whitney Handicap August 8th.

Career: 8 Starts 5-2-0-0, Win Pct: 62.5%, Top 3 Pct: 87.5%, Top 4 Pct: 87.5%, Top 4 Pct: 87.5%
Fastest 1 1/8 Mile Time: 1:52.92 – 11/30/14 (2014 Remsen Stakes)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: N/A

* – indicates horses who have already qualified for the Breeders’ Cup Classic

Below is a ranking by Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Times.  I used times at the 1 & 1/4 mile mark from the 2015 Belmont Stakes for American Pharoah and Frosted since these times were better than their times in the Kentucky Derby. For calculated times of non-winning horses, I used the official race time of the winner and the following to compute an estimated time [One length is equal to 0.16 seconds, three-quarters of a length is equal to 0.12, a half-length equals 0.08, a neck is equal to 0.04, a head is equal to 0.02 and a nose is 0.01].

1) Bayern –  1:59.88 – 11/1/14 (2014 Breeders’ Cup Classic)
2) Tonalist  – 2:00.69 (calculated) – 11/1/14 (2014 Breeders’ Cup Classic)
3) Palace Malice  – 2:00.78 (calculated) – 9/28/13 (2013 Jockey Club Gold Cup)
4) Catch A Flight   – 2:01.37 (calculated) – 3/7/15 (2015 Santa Anita Handicap)
5) Effinex  – 2:01.55 – 7/4/15 (2015 Suburban Handicap)
6) American Pharoah  –  2:02.37 – 6/5/15 (2015 Belmont Stakes)
7) Hard Aces  –  2:02.46 – 6/27/14 (2015 Gold Cup)
8) Hoppertunity  –  2:02.47 (calculated) – 6/27/14 (2015 Gold Cup)
9) Frosted  –   2:02.69 (calculated) – 6/5/2015 (2015 Belmont Stakes)
10) Dortmund –  2:03.50 (calculated) – 5/2/15 (2015 Kentucky Derby)
11) Lea –  2:03.88 (calculated) – 3/28/15 (2015 Dubai World Cup)

The remaining “Win and You’re In” Breeders’ Cup Classic Races:

Aug. 2nd – The Haskell Invitational at Monmouth Park – 1 1/8 Mile – Purse: $1,000,000 – NBC
Aug. 8th – The Whitney Handicap at Saratoga – 1 1/8 Mile – Purse: $1,500,000 – NBC
Aug. 22nd – The TVG Pacific Classic at Del Mar – 1 1/4 Mile – Purse: $1,000,000 – TVG
Sept. 26th – The Awesome Again Stakes at Santa Anita – 1 1/8 Mile – Purse: $250,000 – TVG
Oct. 3rd – Jockey Club Gold Cup Invitational at Belmont – 1 1/4 Mile – Purse: $1,000,000 – NBC

Other Notable Classic Division Races:

Aug. 29th – The Travers Stakes at Saratoga – 1 1/4 Mile – Purse: $1,000,000 – NBC
Sept. 5th – The Woodward Stakes at Saratoga – 1 1/8 Mile – Purse: $600,000 –  NBCSN

–Michael