Below are what I feel are 12 of the most exciting horse races in 2015. #4 and #5 on my list are two races that I feel slipped under the radar that would probably rank higher if it weren’t for the Horse of a Lifetime–American Pharoah–rewriting history books. I will add that there were many more great races that didn’t make this list but these were the most memorable due to the dramatics, history or prestige of the race at stake. Feel free to comment on any you feel that I have left off.
1) The Belmont Stakes that saw American Pharoah win the first Triple Crown in 37 years. Truly a magical moment.
2) Another magical moment in horse racing history–American Pharoah winning the Breeders’ Cup Classic to become the very first horse to win the Grand Slam of horse racing.
3) The 2015 Kentucky Derby was a great battle between American Pharoah and Firing Line.
4) Far From Over (horse #2) has a stumbling bad start but comes back from dead last to win the Withers Stakes.
5) The Illinois-bred “The Pizza Man” comes back for a dramatic win in the Arlington Million.
6) The 2015 San Antonio Stakes. This was billed as the “Clash of the Titans” that pitted Shared Belief vs the 2014 Horse of the Year in California Chrome at the beautiful Santa Anita Park venue in February.
7) The biggest upset of the year in horse racing–Keen Ice beats American Pharoah and stuns the Travers Stakes crowd.
8) Beholder becoming the first female to win the Pacific Classic and doing it in the most impressive fashion.
9) Dortmund vs. Firing Line in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes at Santa Anita.
10) American Pharoah wins the sloppy Preakness Stakes.
11) Tepin–the Flying Filly–wins the Breeders Cup Mile against the boys.
12) Mongolian Saturday at 15-1 Odds holds on for the upset in the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint.
American Pharoah #4 in the Rebel stakes. Photo: Eclipse Sportswire
Below is an updated ranking on my top seven Kentucky Derby contenders. As you can see, American Pharoah moved up my list due to his Rebel Stakes performance that answered a lot of questions as to how he would fare coming a long layoff. Firing Line returns to my top seven with his landslide victory in the Sunland Derby where he set a track record. He was always a talented colt, just needed to race where didn’t have to beat Dortmund.
Texas Red has been removed from my list as he is officially off the Derby trail. The Desormeaux brothers don’t feel that they have enough lead time to prep for the Kentucky Derby. Materiality is new addition to my list. His jockey has been John Velazquez but Velazquez will likely be Carpe Diem’s rider in the Kentucky Derby. So Materiality could be Kent Desormeaux’s mount in place of Texas Red for the Kentucky Derby. That is, if he can secure the necessary Derby points in the Florida Derby. He is the half brother to Texas Red as they shared the same sire (Afleet Alex).
1)Dortmund(Kentucky Bred- Won in 1st start) – Derby Points: 70
Sire: Big Brown – 2008 Kentucky Derby & Preakness Stakes Winner
Jockey: Martin Garcia
5 Starts, 5 Wins, Win Pct: 100%, Graded Stakes Win Pct: 100%
Last Three Starts: 1st (91 Beyer), 1st (103 Beyer), 1st (104 Beyer)
Average Beyer Speed Figure of Last Two Starts: 103.5
Fastest 1 1/16 Mile Time-: 1:40.86 at Los Alamitos 12/20/14
Next Race: Santa Anita Derby – April 4th Dortmund’s Equibase Profile
2)American Pharoah(Kentucky Bred – Won in 2nd start) – Derby Points: 60
Sire: Pioneerof the Nile – Finished 2nd in 2009 Kentucky Derby
Jockey: Victor Espinoza
4 Starts, 3 Wins, Win Pct: 75%, Graded Stakes Win Pct: 100%
Last Three Starts: 1st (101 Beyer), 1st (101 Beyer), 1st (100 Beyer)
Average Beyer Speed Figure of Last Two Starts: 100.5
Fastest 1 1/16th Mile Time: 1:41.95 at Santa Anita Park 9/27/14
Next Race: Arkansas Derby – April 11th American Pharoah’s Equibase Profile
3)Firing Line (Kentucky Bred – Won in 2nd start) – Derby Points: 58
Sire: Line of David – Won 2010 Arkansas Derby, finished 18th in 2010 Kentucky Derby
Jockey: Gary Stevens
5 Starts, 2 Wins, Win Pct: 40%, Graded Stakes Win Pct: 33%
Last Three Starts: 2nd (91 Beyer), 2nd (104 Beyer), 1st (97 Beyer)
Average Beyer Speed Figure of Last Two Starts: 100.5
Fastest 1 1/16th Mile Time: 1:40.88 (calculated) at Los Alamitos 12/20/14
Fastest 1 1/8th Mile Time: 1:47.39 (track record) at Sunland Park 3/22/15
Next Race: Kentucky Derby – May 2nd Firing Line’s Equibase Profile
4) Upstart (New York Bred – Won in 1st start) – Derby Points: 36
Sire: Flatterwhose sire was A.P. Indy – 1992 Belmont Stakes & Breeders’ Cup Classic
Jockey: Jose Ortiz
6 Starts, 3 Wins, Win Pct: 50%, Graded Stakes Win Pct: 25%
Last Three Starts: 3rd (93 Beyer), 1st (105* Beyer), 2nd–DQ from 1st (95 Beyer)
Average Beyer Speed Figure of Last Two Starts: 100
Fastest 1 1/16th Mile Time: 1:42.96 (calculated) at Santa Anita Park 11/1/14
Next Race: Florida Derby – March 28th
*Some references list this Beyer Speed figure at 106, I chose the lower Upstart’s Equibase Profile
5) Carpe Diem(Kentucky Bred – Won in 1st start) – Derby Points: 64
Sire: Giant’s Causeway– Finished 2nd in the 2000 Breeders’ Cup Classic
Jockey: John Velazquez
4 Starts, 3 Wins, Win Pct: 75%, Graded Stakes Win Pct: 67%
Last Three Starts: 1st (91 Beyer), 2nd (93 Beyer), 1st (98 Beyer)
Average Beyer Speed Figure of Last Two Starts: 95.5
Fastest 1 1/16th Mile Time: 1:42.95 (calculated) at Santa Anita Park 11/1/14
Next Race: Blue Grass Stakes – April 11th Carpe Diem’s Equibase Profile
6) Far From Over (Kentucky Bred – Won in 1st start) – Derby Points: 10
Sire: Blame – 2010 Breeders’ Cup Classic Winner
Jockey: Manuel Franco
2 Starts, 2 Wins, Win Pct: 100%, Graded Stakes Win Pct: 100%
Last Three Starts: 1st (78 Beyer), 1st (96 Beyer)
Average Beyer Speed Figure of Last Two Starts: 82
Fastest 1 1/16th Mile Time: 1:43.93 at Aqueduct 2/7/15
Next Race: Wood Memorial – April 4th Far From Over’s Equibase Profile
7)Materiality (Kentucky Bred – Won in 1st start) – Derby Points: 0
Sire: Afleet Alex – 2005 Preakness Stakes & Belmont Stakes Winner
Jockey: Kent Desormeaux?
2 Starts, 2 Wins, Win Pct: 100%, Graded Stakes Win Pct: 100%
Last Three Starts: 1st (87 Beyer), 1st (104 Beyer)
Average Beyer Speed Figure of Last Two Starts: 95.5
Fastest 1 1/16th Mile Time: n/a
Fastest 1 1/8th Mile Time: 1:49.32 at Gulfstream Park 3/6/15
Next Race: Florida Derby – March 28th Materiality’s Equibase Profile
Below is a ranking of the average Beyer Speed Figures of my top seven horses last two starts. Ties are broken by the higher speed in the last start.
Ranking By Average Beyer Speed Figures of Last Two Starts(Last Start):
1) Dortmund 103.5 (104)
2) American Pharoah 100.5 (100)
3) Firing Line 100.5 (97)
4) Upstart 100 (95)
5) Materiality 95.5 (104)
6) Carpe Diem 95.5 (98)
7) Far From Over 82 (96)
The 2014 Eclipse 2 Year-Old Horse of the Year will be back in action this Saturday March 14th at Oaklawn Park in the Rebel Stakes (Race #10). Post Time is 6:06 PM CST. American Pharoah is the Morning Line favorite at 1/2 odds. In this seven horse field, his toughest competition will come from Post #1 The Truth or Else (4/1 Odds) ridden by Calvin Borel, the Steve Asmussen-trained Bold Conquest (8/1 Odds) and Todd Pletcher’s other entry–Madefromlucky (6/1 Odds).
As with any horse coming off a long layoff, I expect bettors to push American Pharoah’s odds higher and closer to 1/1. If I were betting this weekend, I probably would steer clear from betting on this race. However, if you want my recommendation, I would probably place a $10 1-4 Boxed Exacta on American Pharoah-The Truth or Else and hope that Calvin Borel does his rail magic. I would also consider a $1 1-2-4 Boxed Trifecta (The Truth or Elise, Madefromluck and American Pharoah). If American Pharoah’s odds push closer to 2-1, then I might lay down another $20 Win bet on him.
Below is an updated list on my Top Six Kentucky Derby contenders.
1)Dortmund(Kentucky Bred- Won in 1st start) – Derby Points: 70
Sire: Big Brown – 2008 Kentucky Derby & Preakness Stakes Winner
5 Starts, 5 Wins, Win Pct: 100%, Graded Stakes Win Pct: 100%
Last Three Starts: 1st (91 Beyer), 1st (103 Beyer), 1st (104 Beyer)
Average Beyer Speed Figure of Last Two Starts: 103.5
Fastest 1 1/16 Mile Time-: 1:40.86 at Los Alamitos 12/20/14
Next Race: Santa Anita Derby – April 4th Dortmund’s Equibase Profile
2) Upstart (New York Bred – Won in 1st start) – Derby Points: 36
Sire: Flatterwhose sire was A.P. Indy – 1992 Belmont Stakes & Breeders’ Cup Classic
6 Starts, 3 Wins, Win Pct: 50%, Graded Stakes Win Pct: 25%
Last Three Starts: 3rd (93 Beyer), 1st (105 Beyer), 2nd–DQ from 1st (95 Beyer)
Average Beyer Speed Figure of Last Two Starts: 100
Fastest 1 1/16th Mile Time: 1:42.96 (calculated) at Santa Anita Park 11/1/14
Next Race: Florida Derby – March 28th Upstart’s Equibase Profile
3) Texas Red (Kentucky Bred – Won in 3rd start) – Derby Points: 12
Sire: Afleet Alex – 2005 Preakness Stakes & Belmont Stakes Winner
6 Starts, 2 Wins, Win Pct: 33%, Graded Stakes Win Pct: 33%
Last Three Starts: 3rd (93 Beyer), 1st (104 Beyer), 2nd (90 Beyer)
Average Beyer Speed Figure of Last Two Starts: 97
Fastest 1 1/16th Mile Time: 1:41.91 at Santa Anita Park 11/1/14
Next Race: Santa Anita Derby – April 4th or Arkansas Derby – April 11th Texas Red’s Equibase Profile
3 Starts, 2 Wins, Win Pct: 67%, Graded Stakes Win Pct: 100%
Last Three Starts: 5th, 1st (101 Beyer), 1st (101 Beyer)
Average Beyer Speed Figure of Last Two Starts: 101
Fastest 1 1/16th Mile Time: 1:41.95 at Santa Anita Park 9/27/14
Next Race: Rebel Stakes – March 14th American Pharoah’s Equibase Profile
5) Carpe Diem(Kentucky Bred – Won in 1st start) – Derby Points: 64
Sire: Giant’s Causeway– Finished 2nd in the 2000 Breeders’ Cup Classic
Kentucky Derby Future Wager Final Odds: Pool #1: 15-1, Pool #2: 12-1
Current Morning Line Odds: 12-1
4 Starts, 3 Wins, Win Pct: 75%, Graded Stakes Win Pct: 67%
Last Three Starts: 1st (91 Beyer), 2nd (93 Beyer), 1st (98 Beyer)
Average Beyer Speed Figure of Last Two Starts: 95.5
Fastest 1 1/16th Mile Time: 1:42.95 (calculated) at Santa Anita Park 11/1/14
Next Race: Blue Grass Stakes – April 11th Carpe Diem’s Equibase Profile
6) Far From Over (Kentucky Bred – Won in 1st start) – Derby Points: 10
Sire: Blame – 2010 Breeders’ Cup Classic Winner
2 Starts, 2 Wins, Win Pct: 100%, Graded Stakes Win Pct: 100%
Last Three Starts: 1st (78 Beyer), 1st (96 Beyer)
Average Beyer Speed Figure of Last Two Starts: 82
Fastest 1 1/16th Mile Time: 1:43.93 at Aqueduct 2/7/15
Next Race: Wood Memorial – April 4th Far From Over’s Equibase Profile
And another horse to keep an eye on from the Todd Pletcher stable–Materiality who posted a 104 Beyer Speed Figure in a 1 1/8th mile race at Gulfstream Park on March 6th (shown below).
Materiality (Kentucky Bred – Won in 1st start) – Derby Points: 0
Sire: Afleet Alex – 2005 Preakness Stakes & Belmont Stakes Winner
2 Starts, 2 Wins, Win Pct: 100%, Graded Stakes Win Pct: 100%
Last Three Starts: 1st (87 Beyer), 1st (104 Beyer)
Average Beyer Speed Figure of Last Two Starts: 95.5
Fastest 1 1/16th Mile Time: n/a
Next Race: Unknown Materiality’s Equibase Profile
Below is a ranking of the average Beyer Speed Figures of my top six horses last two starts. Ties are broken by the higher speed in the last start. Materiality was added to the list for comparison purposes.
Ranking By Average Beyer Speed Figures of Last Two Starts:
1) Dortmund 103.5
2) American Pharoah 101
3) Upstart 100
4) Texas Red 97
5) Materiality 95.5
6) Carpe Diem 95.5
7) Far From Over 82
With the Kentucky Future Wagers Pool #3 coming up February 27th, below are eight horses to consider for your future wager. But first, what does a Kentucky Derby winner usually look like on paper?
Profiling the Kentucky Derby Winner
The profile of a typical Kentucky Derby winner is that 75.7% are Kentucky bred. California Chrome was the exception and not the norm last year being a California bred horse. California has produced only four Kentucky Derby winners with the last (before California Chrome) being Decidedly who won in 1962. Florida is the next best state at producing Kentucky Derby winners with six.
Another stat to consider is that the roughly 70% of Kentucky Derby winners won their first race in their first or second start–which California Chrome accomplished. As long as a horse wins in his first four starts and gets hot in February and March, I am fine with it. Also, probably a more important stat, thirteen out of the last fifteen Kentucky Derby winners broke their maiden by December 1st of their 2-year-old campaign. All the horses in my top seven won their first race by December 1st except for Far From Over who won on December 12th.
Note: blue bold fonts are linked to race videos or Equibase references
1)Dortmund(Kentucky Bred- Won in 1st start) – Derby Points: 20
Sire: Big Brown – 2008 Kentucky Derby & Preakness Stakes Winner
Kentucky Derby Future Wager Final Odds: Pool #1: 9-1, Pool #2: 10-1
Current Morning Line Odds: 8-1
4 Starts, 4 Wins, Win Pct: 100%, Graded Stakes Win Pct: 100%
Last Three Starts: 1st (97 Beyer), 1st (91 Beyer), 1st (103 Beyer)
Average Beyer Speed Figure of Last Two Starts: 97
Fastest 1 1/16 Mile Time-: 1:40.86 at Los Alamitos 12/20/14
Next Race: San Felipe Stakes – March 7th or Santa Anita Derby – April 4th Dortmund’s Equibase Profile
2) Texas Red (Kentucky Bred – Won in 3rd start) – Derby Points: 12
Sire: Afleet Alex – 2005 Preakness Stakes & Belmont Stakes Winner
Kentucky Derby Future Wager Final Odds: Pool #1: 14-1, Pool #2: 9-1
Current Morning Line Odds: 12-1
6 Starts, 2 Wins, Win Pct: 33%, Graded Stakes Win Pct: 33%
Last Three Starts: 3rd (93 Beyer), 1st (104 Beyer), 2nd (90 Beyer)
Average Beyer Speed Figure of Last Two Starts: 97
Fastest 1 1/16th Mile Time: 1:41.91 at Santa Anita Park 11/1/14
Next Race: Santa Anita Derby – April 4th or Arkansas Derby – April 11th Texas Red’s Equibase Profile
Kentucky Derby Future Wager Final Odds: Pool #1: 12-1, Pool #2: 10-1
Current Morning Line Odds: 8-1
3 Starts, 2 Wins, Win Pct: 67%, Graded Stakes Win Pct: 100%
Last Three Starts: 5th, 1st (101 Beyer), 1st (101 Beyer)
Average Beyer Speed Figure of Last Two Starts: 101
Fastest 1 1/16th Mile Time: 1:41.95 at Santa Anita Park 9/27/14
Next Race: Rebel Stakes – March 14th American Pharoah’s Equibase Profile
4) Upstart (New York Bred – Won in 1st start) – Derby Points: 36
Sire: Flatterwhose sire was A.P. Indy – 1992 Belmont Stakes & Breeders’ Cup Classic
Kentucky Derby Future Wager Final Odds: Pool #1: 53-1, Pool #2: 12-1
Current Morning Line Odds: 15-1
6 Starts, 3 Wins, Win Pct: 50%, Graded Stakes Win Pct: 25%
Last Three Starts: 3rd (93 Beyer), 1st (105 Beyer), 2nd–DQ from 1st (95 Beyer)
Average Beyer Speed Figure of Last Two Starts: 100
Fastest 1 1/16th Mile Time: 1:42.96 (calculated) at Santa Anita Park 11/1/14
Next Race: Florida Derby – March 28th Upstart’s Equibase Profile
5) Carpe Diem(Kentucky Bred – Won in 1st start) – Derby Points: 14
Sire: Giant’s Causeway– Finished 2nd in the 2000 Breeders’ Cup Classic
Kentucky Derby Future Wager Final Odds: Pool #1: 15-1, Pool #2: 12-1
Current Morning Line Odds: 12-1
3 Starts, 2 Wins, Win Pct: 67%, Graded Stakes Win Pct: 50%
Last Three Starts: 1st, 1st (91 Beyer), 2nd (93 Beyer)
Average Beyer Speed Figure of Last Two Starts: 92
Fastest 1 1/16th Mile Time: 1:42.95 (calculated) at Santa Anita Park 11/1/14
Next Race: Tampa Bay Derby – March 7th Carpe Diem’s Equibase Profile
6) Far From Over (Kentucky Bred – Won in 1st start) – Derby Points: 10
Sire: Blame – 2010 Breeders’ Cup Classic Winner
Kentucky Derby Future Wager Final Odds: Unlisted in both Pools
Current Morning Line Odds: 15-1
2 Starts, 2 Wins, Win Pct: 100%, Graded Stakes Win Pct: 100%
Last Three Starts: 1st (78 Beyer), 1st (96 Beyer)
Average Beyer Speed Figure of Last Two Starts: 82
Fastest 1 1/16th Mile Time: 1:43.93 at Aqueduct 2/7/15
Next Race: Gotham Stakes – March 7th Far From Over’s Equibase Profile
Kentucky Derby Future Wager Final Odds: Pool #1: Unlisted, Pool #2: 40-1
Current Morning Line Odds: 20-1
8 Starts, 4 Wins, Win Pct: 50%, Graded Stakes Win Pct: 50%
Last Three Starts: 4th, 1st (89 Beyer), 1st (93 Beyer)
Average Beyer Speed Figure of Last Two Starts: 91
Fastest 1 1/16th Mile Time: 1:43.82 at The Fairgrounds 2/21/15
Next Race: Louisiana Derby – March 28th International Star’s Equibase Profile
8) Ocho Ocho Ocho (Kentucky Bred – Won in 1st Start) – Derby Points: 10
Sire: Street Sense – 2007 Kentucky Derby Winner
Kentucky Derby Future Wager Final Odds: Pool #1: 29-1, Pool #2: 26-1
Current Morning Line Odds: 20-1
3 Starts, 3 Wins, Win Pct: 100%, Graded Stakes Win Pct: 100%
Last Three Starts: 1st (80 Beyer), 1st (83 Beyer), 1st (90 Beyer)
Average Beyer Speed Figure of Last Two Starts: 86.5
Fastest 1 1/16th Mile Time: 1:45.47 at Delta Downs 11/22/14
Next Race: San Felipe Stakes – March 7th Ocho Ocho Ocho’s Equibase Profile
Overall, I felt confident that the 2015 Kentucky Derby winner was listed in Pool #2, but I am 100% confident that he is in this pool. I would not recommend placing any bets on horses whose Morning Line Odds are greater than 30-1. This means do not waste your money on these 50-1 horses: Bolo, Danzig Moon, Keen Ice and Mr. Z.
Also, Khozan ended with 25-1 final odds in Pool #2 and he is coming off a win in his last start in a one mile race at Gulfstream. He is listed as 15-1 Morning Line Odds. Don’t buy into the hype. I felt that he was overbet in the last pool for what he had accomplished and I expect the same in this pool. I like horses who have proven that they can win in races longer than one mile (two-turns).
What am I going to do? I already placed a $20 bet on Texas Red in Pool #1 that will payout $302 if he wins. In this pool I am going to place $20 to $40 on Dortmund (horse #6) depending upon his live odds on Saturday morning. If only place $20 on Dortmund I will be looking for value and a price for any of the above horses.
Below is a ranking of the average Beyer Speed Figures of my top eight horses last two starts. Ties are broken by the higher speed in the last start.
Ranking By Average Beyer Speed Figures of Last Two Starts:
1) American Pharoah 101
2) Upstart 100
3) Dortmund 97
4) Texas Red 97
5) Carpe Diem 92
6) International Star 91
7) Ocho Ocho Ocho 86.5
8) Far From Over 82
You can follow the Future Wager Pool #3 Live Odds by clicking HERE.
You can see the full Kentucky Derby point standings by clicking HERE
2015 Kentucky Oaks Future Wager Pool
For the Kentucky Oaks Future Wager Pool, I would recommend one filly only: Condo Commando. She has already won at the Oaks distance of 1 & 1/8th mile and she demolished that field in the Demoiselle Stakes winning by 11 1/2 lengths (shown below). She is listed as 8-1 Morning Line Odds and also coming off a win in the Busher Stakes. Take Charge Brandi was listed at 6-1 odds. She has a tremendous heart but I feel that Condo Commando is the more proven commodity at this point having won at 1 1/8th mile distance. So I am placing $20 on Condo Commando (horse #4) in this Pool.
You can follow the live Kentucky Oaks Future Wager Pool Odds by clicking HERE
You can see the full Kentucky Oaks point standings by clicking HERE
Mike's Derby Picks 