2018 Travers Stakes Preview

gmt18s_2018_travers

August 21st 2018 – Updated August 25th 2018 3:45 PM CST

Below are the post-positions, jockey assignments and morning line odds for the 149th Travers Stakes. As expected, Good Magic is the morning line odds favorite at 2/1. The filly Wonder Gadot is third favorite at 5/1. The race will be televised Saturday between 4pm and 5pm CST on NBC. 

***Update: The track seems to have an inside bias today which will bode well for Wonder Gadot and Gronkowski

Note: I have linked every horse in the field to their Equibase profiles so you can see their recent results and workouts.

The 149th Travers Stakes 

1 1/4th Mile – Race #11 at Saratoga – Post-Time: Saturday August 26th 4:45 PM CST. Televised by NBC

Post/Horse/Jockey/Trainer/Odds/Last Start
1. Trigger Warning – Rosendo/Rone – 30/1 – 2nd in Indiana Derby
2. Wonder Gadot – I.Ortiz Jr./Casse – 5/1 – 1st in Prince of Wales  
3. Gronkowski – Rosario/Brown – 4/1 – 2nd in Belmont Stakes 
4. Bravazo – Saez/Lukas – 12/1 – 2nd in Haskell Invitational
5. Vino Rosso – Velazquez/Pletcher – 10/1 – 3rd in Jim Dandy Stakes 
6. Meistermind – Franco/Asmussen – 30/1 – 5th in allowance race (SCRATCHED)
7. King Zachary – Albarado/Romans – 15/1 – 4th in Indiana Stakes
8. Mendelssohn – Moore/O’Brien – 12/1 – 3rd in Dwyer Stakes 
9. Good Magic – J.Ortiz/Brown – 2/1 – 1st in Haskell Invitational  
10. Tenfold – Santana Jr./Asmussen – 8/1 – 1st in Jim Dandy Stakes 
11. Catholic Boy – Castellano/Thomas – 8/1 – 1st in Belmont Derby (turf)

Race Analysis: Although I would love to see the filly Wonder Gadot beat the boys and pull off the upset, I think Gronkowski is primed for a big win this Saturday. Just watching video of him and Good Magic schooling in the paddock today (Click HERE), Gronkowski looks noticeably bigger and more physically impressive. He got out of the gates poorly in the Belmont Stakes, but ran some of the best fractions in the race after that. 

I calculate that Gronkowsi ran the last 4 furlongs in 49.01 (36.72mph). That is bringing it and more impressive than anything Good Magic or Tenfold did in the Haskell Invitational and Jim Dandy Stakes.

As far as Wonder Gadot, she is a bit of a tough read as her two most more recent starts, both impressive wins, were run on a synthetic surface at Woodbine and over a sloppy dirt track at Fort Erie. However, she did run very well in a second place finish in the 8 furlong Kentucky Oaks. For this reason, I think she has a shot to hit the board and a slight chance of pulling off an upset. But my money will be on Gronkowski.

I like Win and Place bets on Gronkowski. I will make a small $10 straight 3-9 Exacta bet (Gronkowski over Good Magic) but I could see several horses finishing second in this race such as Wonder Gadot, Vino Rosso and Catholic Boy. For my $1 Trifecta, 3,5 over 3,5,9 over 3,5,9–total cost $4. For Superfecta betting, I like a 50 cent Superfecta of 3 over 9 over 2,4,5,11 over 2,4,7, 5,11 would cost $8.

I have a feeling that this Superfecta will be hard to hit as this field has a number of horses who are very close in talent and ability. One horse who may surprise everyone is King Zachary if he runs as well as he did in the Matt Winn Stakes. So I decided to add him in my 4th sport of my Superfecta.

–Michael

My Triple Crown Dream Was Justified

GIMcgx-a_400x400

June 12th 2018

I don’t even know where to begin when writing about my experience at the 150th Belmont Stakes or what adjectives to use to describe it. I checked off something that was at the top of  my bucket list by witnessing a Triple Crown Championship won in person. And the cherry on top was the fact that Justify became only the 2nd Triple Crown Champion to go through all three legs undefeated. Justify’s great-great-great grandsire Seattle Slew is the other.

I didn’t get to post this on my blog in time as this article for US Racing was posted while I was at the track Saturday but I did call this race. See: Why Justify Will Become the 13th Triple Crown Champion. 

Perhaps, it best that I share the two videos I took below and you will get idea of what I experienced. This race undoubtedly goes into my Top 5 sports memories viewed in person along with American Pharoah’s win in the 2015 Breeders’ Cup Classic to make him the first Grand Slam Champion of American Thoroughbred racing.

 

Gronkowski

I was really surprised how well the Aidan O’Brien-trained colt Gronkowski performed in the Belmont Stakes with his 2nd place finish. This colt had never raced further than a mile and had raced mostly on turf or synthetic surfaces. I didn’t really think this was the best race for him but he exceeded all expectations. Unfortunately for me and quite a few others, Gronkowski killed all of my exotic bets.

TV Ratings

Although the Belmont Stakes on NBC was the most watched TV program all weekend, the ratings are down from when American Pharoah and California Chrome made their Triple Crown attempts at Belmont. The theory is that since Justify didn’t race as a 2 year old, that he hadn’t developed the following along the way as the other two.

At any rate, my blog views this year were down considerably from January thru May over the last two years. I blame some of this on the fact the Older Horse division lacks stars due to so many key retirements. And also the fact that the most popular Derby contenders in this class entering the year were more lightly raced than in year’s past.

However, Justify is just what this sport needed. The interest seems to be back better than ever as my blog views for the month of June have already set a new record over previous years. So, I foresee that this year’s Breeders’ Cup World Championship at Churchill Downs will break a lot of records if Justify races in it as expected.


On the docket…

I am currently working on another article for US Racing that is tentatively titled: “Justify vs American Pharoah: Who’s Better?” This should come out in the next week or so.

For my blog, I also plan to preview this coming Saturday’s Stephen F. Foster Handicap if Patch is entered. So far this has not been confirmed.

–Michael

2018 Belmont Stakes Post-Positions and Odds

GIMcgx-a_400x400
June 5th 2018 – Updated June 6th 2018 11PM CST
Below are the entries, post-positions, jockey assignments and morning line odds for the 150th running of the Belmont Stakes. The race will be aired live on NBC this coming Saturday around 5:37 PM CST.
One interesting factoid, three out of the last four Belmont Stakes winners (Tonalist, Creator and Tapwri) were sired by Tapit. This is why Hofburg is the second favorite, though I really think Vino Rosso is the 2nd most talented colt in this field behind Justify.

2018 Belmont Stakes Field

1) Justify (4/5) – The 2018 Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes winner. He will attempt to become the 13th Triple Crown champion.


Career: 5 Starts 5-0-0-0 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 3
Last 3 starts: 1st–>1st–>1st
Sire: Scat Daddy
Trainer: Bob Baffert (2001 & 2015 Belmont Stakes Winning Trainer)
Jockey: Mike Smith (2010 & 2013 Belmont Stakes Winner)
Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 107 – 2018 Santa Anita Derby

2) Free Drop Billy (30/1) – The Dale Romans-trained Breeders’s Futurity winner. He had a disappointing 16th place finish in the Kentucky Derby. His entry in the Belmont Stakes will depend on how he trains this week. His sire, Union Rags, won the 2012 Belmont Stakes/


Career: 9 Starts 2-3-2-0 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 1
Last 3 starts: 3rd–>3rd–>16th
Sire: Union Rags (Finished 1st in the 2012 Belmont Stakes)
Trainer: Dale Romans
Jockey: Robby Albarado
Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 90 – 2018 Holy Bull Stakes

3) Bravazo (8/1) – The Risen Star Stakes winner had the best run of his career in the Preakness Stakes, finishing 2nd behind Justify by a half length. Trained by four time Belmont Stakes winner D. Wayne Lukas. Bravazo will be the 2nd favorite with bettors on Belmont Stakes day. H was coming like a runaway freight train in that last furlong in the Preakness Stakes and made the race interesting.


Career: 10 Starts 3-2-1-0 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 0
Last 3 starts: 8th–>6th–>2nd
Sire: Awesome Again
Trainer: D.Wayne Lukas (1994, 1995, 1996 & 2000 Belmont Stakes.Winning Trainer)
Jockey: Luis Saez
Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 96 – 2018 Preakness Stakes

4) Hofburg (9/2) – After a 2nd place finish in the Florida Derby (shown below), Hofburg followed up this effort with a 7th place finish in the Kentucky Derby. He has a former Belmont Stakes winning trainer and jockey in his corner.


Career: 4 Starts 1-1-0-1 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 0
Last 3 starts: 1st–>2nd–>7th
Sire: Tapit
Trainer: William Mott (2010 Belmont Stakes Winning Trainer)
Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr (2016 Belmont Stakes Winner)
Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 94 – 2018 Florida Derby

5) Restoring Hope (30/1) – Another new shooter who finished 3rd in the Wood Memorial (shown below). He had a disappointing effort in the sloppy Pat Day Mile, finishing 12th.


Career: 5 Starts 1-1-2-0 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 0
Last 3 starts: 1st–>3rd–>12th
Sire: Giant’s Causeway
Trainer: Bob Baffert (2001 & 2015 Belmont Stakes Winning Trainer)
Jockey: Florent Geroux
Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 90 -2018 Wood Memorial

6) Gronkowski (12/1) – A European runner who is named after New England Patriots Tight End Rob Gronkowski. He is now being trained by Chad Brown. Gronkowski has primarily raced on synthetic or turf surfaces and has never raced longer than a mile. So he appears to be a better fit for the Met Mile on Belmont Stakes day.


Career: 6 Starts 4-1-0-0 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 0
Last 3 starts: 1st–>1st-->1st
Sire: Lonhro
Trainer: Chad Brown
Jockey: Jose Ortiz (2017 Belmont Stakes Winner)
Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: N/A

7) Tenfold (12/1) – The Steve Asmussen-trained colt finished 5th in the Arkansas Derby and had a surprising 3rd place finish in the Preakness Stakes.


Career: 4 Starts 2-0-1-0 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 0
Last 3 starts: 1st–>5th–>3rd
Sire: Curlin (Finished 2nd in the 2007 Belmont Stakes)
Trainer: Steve Asmussen (2016 Belmont Stakes Winning Trainer)
Jockey: Ricardo Santana Jr.
Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 95 – 2018 Preakness Stakes

8) Vino Rosso (8/1) – The Wood Memorial winner. He finished 9th in the Kentucky Derby. He has a proven Belmont Stakes winning trainer and jockey behind him.


Career: 6 Starts 3-0-1-1 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 0
Last 3 starts: 4th–>1st–>9th
Sire: Curlin (Finished 2nd in the 2007 Belmont Stakes)
Trainer: Todd Pletcher (2007, 2013 & 2017 Belmont Stakes Winning Trainer)
Jockey: John Velasquez (2007 and 2012 Belmont Stakes Winner)
Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 98 – 2018 Wood Memorial

9) Noble Indy (30/1) – The surprise winner of the 2018 Louisiana Derby winner. He bombed in the sloppy Kentucky Derby with a 17th place finish. Trained by Todd Pletcher who is one of the best at preparing 3-year-old colts for the mile and a half.


Career: 5 Starts 3-0-1-0 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 0
Last 3 starts: 3rd–>1st–>17th
Sire: Take Charge Indy
Trainer: Todd Pletcher (2007, 2013 & 2017 Belmont Stakes Winning Trainer)
Jockey: Javier Castellano
Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 95 – 2018 Louisiana Derby

10) Blended Citizen (15/1) – A new shooter. He is coming off a win in the Peter Pan Stakes at Belmont Park. So you know he likes track surface. He finished 5th in the Blue Grass Stakes.


Career: 10 Starts 3-0-2-0 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 0
Last 3 starts: 1st–>5th–>1st
Sire: Proud Citizen (Finished 5th in the 2002 Belmont Stakes)
Trainer: Doug O’Neill
Jockey: Kyle Frey
Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 90 – 2018 Peter Pan Stakes


On the docket…

My next blog will provide race analysis. I will also have an article for US Racing on Justify’s chances of winning the Triple Crown.
–Michael

2018 Belmont Stakes Early Preview

GIMcgx-a_400x400

May 26th 2018 – Updated May 29th 2018 6:00 PM CST

We are now two weeks away from the final leg of the Triple Crown. Below is an early look at the 2018 Belmont Stakes field. I have included my best guess on their morning line odds.

Thus far, it appears to be Justify with a field of closers and little early speed which bodes well for those of us who will be there hoping to see the 13th Triple Crown champion.

Looking at Brisnet Past Performances for this Belmont Stakes field (CLICK HERE), Justify has Prime Power rating of 161.0 that is more than 10 over the next colt in this field (146.1 – Vino Rosso). Historically, this equates to a 55% win percentage for Justify in this race.

When looking at the past 25 years of Belmont Stakes winners, 17 of 25 raced in the Kentucky Derby. Only 7 colts who won the Belmont Stakes were new shooters (those making their first appearance in a Triple Crown race). Only 1 of the winners came out of the Preakness Stakes that didn’t also race in the Kentucky Derby.

My best guess, the only horse in this field that can beat Justify in this field is Vino Rosso. If you are trying to beat Justify, he’s your horse. Well rested, he will have 35 days layoff between races. Trained by Todd Pletcher who is one of the best at training colts for the Mile and a Half. Justify’s worst Beyer Speed Figure is 97. Vino Rosso is the only colt in this potential field who had eclipsed that figure.

2018 Belmont Stakes Potential Entries

1) Justify (4/5) – The 2018 Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes winner. He will attempt to become the 13th Triple Crown champion.

Career: 5 Starts 5-0-0-0   Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 3
Last 3 starts:  1st–>1st–>1st
Sire: Scat Daddy
Trainer: Bob Baffert (2001 & 2015 Belmont Stakes Winning Trainer)
Jockey: Mike Smith (2010 & 2013 Belmont Stakes Winner)
Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 107 – 2018 Santa Anita Derby

2) Bravazo (4/1) – The Risen Star Stakes winner had the best run of his career in the Preakness Stakes, finishing 2nd behind Justify by a half length. Trained by four time Belmont Stakes winner D. Wayne Lukas. Bravazo will be the 2nd favorite with bettors on Belmont Stakes day. He was coming like a runaway freight train in that last furlong in the Preakness Stakes and made the race interesting.

Career: 10 Starts 3-2-1-0   Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 0
Last 3 starts: 8th–>6th–>2nd
Sire: Awesome Again
Trainer: D.Wayne Lukas (1994, 1995, 1996 & 2000 Belmont Stakes.Winning Trainer)
Jockey: Luis Saez
Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 96 – 2018 Preakness Stakes

3) Hofburg (6/1) – After a 2nd place finish in the Florida Derby (shown below), Hofburg followed up this effort with a 7th place finish in the Kentucky Derby. He has a former Belmont Stakes winning trainer and jockey in his corner.

Career: 4 Starts 1-1-0-1   Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 0
Last 3 starts: 1st–>2nd–>7th
Sire: Tapit 
Trainer: William Mott (2010 Belmont Stakes Winning Trainer)
Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr (2016 Belmont Stakes Winner)
Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 94 – 2018 Florida Derby

4) Vino Rosso (8/1) The Wood Memorial winner. He finished 9th in the Kentucky Derby. He has a proven Belmont Stakes winning trainer and jockey behind him.

Career: 6 Starts 3-0-1-1   Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 0
Last 3 starts: 4th–>1st–>9th
Sire: Curlin (Finished 2nd in the 2007 Belmont Stakes)
Trainer: Todd Pletcher (2007, 2013 & 2017 Belmont Stakes Winning Trainer)
Jockey: John Velasquez (2007 and 2012 Belmont Stakes Winner)
Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 98 – 2018 Wood Memorial

5) Tenfold (10/1) – The Steve Asmussen-trained colt finished 5th in the Arkansas Derby and had a surprising 3rd place finish in the Preakness Stakes.

Career: 4 Starts 2-0-1-0   Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 0
Last 3 starts:  1st–>5th–>3rd
Sire: Curlin (Finished 2nd in the 2007 Belmont Stakes)
Trainer: Steve Asmussen (2016 Belmont Stakes Winning Trainer)
Jockey: Ricardo Santana Jr.
Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 95 – 2018 Preakness Stakes

6) Noble Indy (15/1) – The surprise winner of the 2018 Louisiana Derby winner.  He bombed in the sloppy Kentucky Derby with a 17th place finish. Trained by Todd Pletcher who is one of the best at preparing 3-year-old colts for the mile and a half.

Career: 5 Starts 3-0-1-0   Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 0
Last 3 starts:  3rd–>1st–>17th
Sire: Take Charge Indy 
Trainer: Todd Pletcher (2007, 2013 & 2017 Belmont Stakes Winning Trainer)
Jockey: Florent Geroux
Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 95 – 2018 Louisiana Derby

7) Blended Citizen (20/1) – The Peter Pan Stakes winner, so you know he likes Belmont Park’s track surface. He finished 5th in the Blue Grass Stakes.

Career: 10 Starts 3-0-2-0   Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 0
Last 3 starts:  1st–>5th–>1st
Sire: Proud Citizen (Finished 5th in the 2002 Belmont Stakes)
Trainer: Doug O’Neill
Jockey: Kyle Frey
Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 90 – 2018 Peter Pan Stakes

8) Restoring Hope (30/1) – Finished 3rd in the Wood Memorial (shown below). He had a disappointing effort in the sloppy Pat Day Mile, finishing 12th.

Career: 5 Starts 1-1-2-0   Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 0
Last 3 starts:  1st–>3rd–>12th
Sire: Giant’s Causeway
Trainer: Bob Baffert (2001 & 2015 Belmont Stakes Winning Trainer)
Jockey: To Be Announced
Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 90 -2018 Wood Memorial

9) Gronkowski (30/1) – A European runner who is named after New England Patriots Tight End Rob Gronkowski. He is now being trained by Chad Brown. Gronkowski has primarily raced on synthetic or turf surfaces and has never raced longer than a mile. So he appears to be a better fit for the Met Mile on Belmont Stakes day.

Career: 6 Starts 4-1-0-0   Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 0
Last 3 starts:  1st–>1st-->1st
Sire: Lonhro
Trainer: Chad Brown 
Jockey: Jose Ortiz (2017 Belmont Stakes Winner)
Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: N/A

10) Free Drop Billy (30/1) – The Dale Romans-trained Breeders’s Futurity winner. He had a disappointing 16th place finish in the Kentucky Derby. He is a confirmed entry in the Belmont Stakes today (May 29th).

Career: 9 Starts 2-3-2-0   Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 1
Last 3 starts: 3rd–>3rd–>16th
Sire: Union Rags (Finished 1st in the 2012 Belmont Stakes)
Trainer: Dale Romans
Jockey: Robby Albarado
Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 90 – 2018 Holy Bull Stakes

11) Bandua (30/1) – A rumored entry and another European turf runner who is a grandson of 1977 Belmont Stakes winner Seattle Slew on his dam’s side. He is undefeated in two starts and has raced at 1 1/4th mile distance. He is also being pegged for the Group 1 Dubai Duty Free Irish Stakes race on June 30th at Curragh Racecourse. My guess is that won’t be entered in the Belmont Stakes and will instead focus on the Irish Stakes.

Career: 2 Starts 2-0-0-0   Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 0
Last 2 starts: 1st->1st
Sire: The Factor
Trainer: Dermont Weld
Jockey: To Be Announced
Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: N/A


On the docket…

I am working on an article for US Racing on why Justify will become the 13th Triple Crown champion.

–Michael

Updated 2018 Belmont Stakes Contenders – Audible will not be entered

GIMcgx-a_400x400

May 25th 2018

As many expected, it was announced today that the Florida Derby winner Audible will not run in the Belmont Stakes. Audible has the same ownership group (WinStar Farm/China Horse Club) as Justify.

So far, it appears that Justify’s competition for the Belmont Stakes will be:

Bravazo (Luis Saez/D. Wayne Lukas) –  Preakness Stakes Runner-Up
Vino Rosso (John Velazquez/Todd Pletcher) – 9th place finisher in the Kentucky Derby
Noble Indy (Florent Geroux/Todd Pletcher) – 17th place finisher in Kentucky Derby
Tenfold (Ricardo Santana Jr/Steve Asmussen) – 3rd place finisher in Preakness Stakes
Blended Citizen (Kyle Frey/Doug O’Neill) – Peter Pan Stakes Winner
Hofburg (Irad Ortiz Jr/Bill Mott) – 7th place finisher in the Kentucky Derby
Gronkowski (?/Chad Brown) – Burradon Stakes Winner
Free Drop Billy
(Robbie Albarado/Dale Romans) – 16th place finisher in Kentucky Derby
Restoring Hope
(Flavien Prat?/Bob Baffert) – 12th place finisher in Peter Pan Stakes
Bandua
(?/Dermont Weld) – UK turf horse

Current Odds (Wynn Las Vegas)

Justify – 1/1
Bravazo – 8/1
Hofburg – 10/1
Vino Rosso – 11/1
Noble Indy – 12/1
Tenfold – 12/1
Restoring Hope – 20/1
Blended Citizen – 28/1
Gronkowski – 40/1
Free Drop Billy – 40/1
Bandua – No odds

–Michael