Coming this Saturday on NBC is the 147th running of the Travers Stakes for 3 year-olds. Consider the history of this race at the hallowed grounds of Saratoga. It was first run in 1864 when Abraham Lincoln was President. That was seven score and twelve years ago. It was once viewed as the fourth leg of the Triple Crown. It seems to produce upsets or controversy. Most notably in 1930 when the Triple Crown champion Gallant Fox was upset by the 100-1 longshot Jim Dandy. More fresh on everyour minds was last year when Keen Ice shocked the Saratoga crowd by beating American Pharoah.
Then there was the Affirmed vs Alydar showdown in 1978 that resulted in Affirmed being disqualified by a foul. To date, the only Triple Crown winner to ever win the Travers Stakes was Whirlaway in 1941.
There is no Triple Crown winner this year to test the Saratoga racing gods but we do have a number of horses in this field that competed in this year’s Triple Crown races:
Exaggerator – Preakness Stakes winner, 2nd in the Kentucky Derby, 11th in the Belmont Stakes Creator – Belmont Stakes winner, 13th in the Kentucky Derby Destin – 2nd in the Belmont Stakes, 6th in the Kentucky Derby Gun Runner – 3rd in the Kentucky Derby Governo Malibu – 4th in the Belmont Stakes My Man Sam – 11th in the Kentucky Derby Majesto – 18th in the Kentucky Derby Laoban – the surprise Jim Dandy Stakes winner who finished 6th in the Preakness Forever d’Oro – 13th in the Belmont Stakes
Plus some late bloomers like the Curlin Stakes winner Connect, Bob Baffert’s Iowa Derby winner American Freedom who finished 2nd to Exaggerator in the Haskell Invitational and Bob Baffert’s other promising colt–Arrogate–who produced a 103 Beyer Speed Figure at Santa Anita Park in June.
Then there’s the once promising Chad Brown colt Gift Box who was sidelined during the Derby trail season due to illness. He gave Connect a real battle in the Curlin Stakes. And the 50-1 odds horse Anaximandros. I think his name means longshot in Latin.
Here are the post-positions, riders and morning line odds:
The Travers Stakes – 1 1/4th Mile – Saturday August 27th – Race #11 at Saratoga – Post-Time: 4:44 PM CST. Televised by NBC
My Prediction: This will be an interesting race. Exaggerator is the class of the field. He has won before at Saratoga as a 2 year old. He has a good starting position in the middle of pack. It would be hard to bet against him here but why would this year be any different for a race that typically springs upsets? Especially when there is no rain in the forecast. This race is very hard to handicap since a few of these horses, and some very promising ones like Connect, have yet to race 10 furlongs. And those who raced in the Kentucky Derby may have significantly improved by now. This race’s exotic bets should payout nice if you are lucky enough to hit one.
Here are the Top Beyer Speed Figures for horses in this field at races longer than one mile
Arrogate SA 24 Jun 1 1/16M 103 Exaggerator SA 09 Apr 1 1/8M 103 Connect SAR 29 Jul 1 1/8M 101 Exaggerator CD 07 May 1 1/4M 101 Exaggerator MTH 31 Jul 1 1/8M 101 Exaggerator PIM 21 May 1 3/16M 101 Laoban SAR 30 Jul 1 1/8M 101 Destin TAM 12 Mar 1 1/16M 100
This is why I would lean towards picking Exaggerator (The Slopmeister) to win this race even on a dry track surface. Connect and American Freedom are probably good bets to finish in the superfecta. After that, it depends on which Gun Runner, Creator and Destin shows up. Arrogate is hurt by drawing the rail. I have no magic crystal ball for this one folks. Good luck and happy viewing!
Update! 8/26/16
One thing I noticed in my research tonight is how the top 3 finishers in Jim Dandy Stakes fared in the Travers Stakes the past 4 years. The Jim Dandy Stakes is a 9 furlong (1 1/8th mile) race that is a prep race for the Travers.
2015 – Frosted finished 2nd in the Jim Dandy and 3rd in the Travers 2014 – Wicked Strong and Tonalist finished 1-2 in the Jim Dandy and then 2nd and 3rd respectively in the Travers. 2013 – Will Take Charge finished 2nd in the Jim Dandy and won the Travers 2012 – Alpha and Neck ‘n Neck finished 1-2 in the Jim Dandy and tied in a dead heat in the Travers.
The Top 3 finishers in this year’s Jim Dandy Stakes were: 1) Laoban, 2) Governor Malibu and 3) Destin. So if you are looking for horses to put into your superfecta bets, it would be a good idea to include one or two of these horses. Of the three, Governor Malibu seems to be the safest bet of the three to hit the board based on his career history.
Two horses that I wouldn’t put in my superfectas are: Anaximandros and My Man Sam. Majesto has been scratched. Forever d’Oro is the only longshot that might have a chance to hit the board. He is a half-brother to Songbird but he has yet to run like it. He crapped out in the Belmont Stakes but moved up well in the Curlin Stakes to finish 3rd.
As I stated earlier, this will be an interesting race. Sort of a mini Kentucky Derby. Since the Haskell Invitational was a wet race, which some horses don’t run well in, we could see a return to form for a horse like Gun Runner. But I am not convinced he likes a mile and a quarter.
The “most exciting 2 minutes in sports” is less than 3 days away and the 142nd running of the Kentucky Derby promises to live up to the hype. We have a talented horse in Nyquist who is trying to join a “Who’s Who in Thoroughbred Racing” of horses who entered the Kentucky Derby undefeated and came away with the Roses. Previous undefeated Derby horses who went on to win the Kentucky Derby are Regret in 1915, Morvich in 1922, Majestic Prince in 1969, Seattle Slew in 1977, Smarty Jones in 2004, Barbaro in 2006 and Big Brown in 2008.
Nyquist drew post #13 but before anybody views this as unlucky, this is the same position he won from in the 2015 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile race (shown below). And Smarty Jones won the Kentucky Derby in 2004 from post 13:
And now for the analysis…
Since 1990, the lowest Kentucky Derby winning Beyer Speed Figure was 97 when California Chrome won in 2014. All other winners eclipsed a 100 Beyer Speed Figure. I generally feel that if a horse wants to “be the part”–a Kentucky Derby winner, he should at least “look the part” and have produced a 97 or higher Beyer Speed Figure thus far. Only 6 horses in the 2016 Kentucky Derby field meet this criteria: Exaggerator, Nyquist, Destin, Danzing Candy, Outwork and Mor Spirit.
Danzing Candy will likely be the pacesetter and I don’t believe that he has the stamina to be able to hang on for the win. Outwork had to struggle to beat a 81-1 odd horse in Trojan Nation in the Wood Memorial. Destin is a fast horse but he has never raced further than 1 1/16th mile. Will he have the stamina to go an extra 1 1/2 furlongs?
Mor Spirit has never finished below 2nd in 7 career starts but I view him more as a horse to round out a Trifecta. So I think the 2016 Kentucky Derby will come down to Nyquist, Exaggerator and Destin. Although it didn’t happen last year, usually one 20-1 or greater odds horse finishes in the Top 4. So keep an eye on the odds for Suddenbreakingnews. Majesto and Whitmore.
Generally, I don’t see a lot of early speed in this field so this doesn’t bode well for closers. This is one of the factors that I think will aid Nyquist. Nyquist has won several different ways: as a pacesetter, as a stalker and coming off the pace and from mid pack like he demonstrated in the 15 horse Breeders’ Cup Juvenile race. He is the deserved race favorite and my pick to win the 2016 Kentucky Derby.
Handicapping Advice: Large win bets on Nyquist if his live odds are 5/2 or greater. Right now his live odds are 2-1. I placed two $10 Boxed Exactas that cost $60 each. The first was 9-11-13 (Destin, Exaggerator and Nyquist) because these are the three fastest horses in the field by times and Beyer Speed Figures. The second Boxed Exacta I placed was 11-13-17 (Nyquist, Exaggerator and Mor Spirit).
I like Majesto as a longshot for Superfectas and his current live odds are 62-1. A $10 win bet here seems inviting but I expect these odds to lower. I always like to place ten to twenty $1 straight Superfectas with various combinations and throwing in a few longshots. It is tough to hit a Superfecta in the Kentucky Derby. Usually you are doing real good to hit 3 out of 4 horses. But “you can’t win if you don’t play” as they say and hitting a Superfecta in the Kentucky Derby usually pays out nicely.
Here are a few of the Straight Superfectas I have placed: (11-13-17-9), (11-9-3-13), (11-9-13-17), (13-9-18-11), (13-11-9-17), (18-13-17-11). I placed a $1 Super High Five bet of (13-11- 9-17-15).
Below are the 2016 Kentucky Derby Post Positions, Jockeys and Morning Line Odds by Churchill Downs handicapper Mike Battaglia. Note that a bold font text is hyperlinked to either a horse’s Equibase profile or a race video from Youtube. This is to aid in your own research:
The 142nd Kentucky Derby – Churchill Downs Race #12 – Post Time 5:34 PM CST (NBC)
1) Trojan Nation(50/1) – Has never won a race, draws dreaded rail Career: 6 Starts 0-1-3-1 Last 3 starts: 3rd–>3rd–>2nd Sire: Street Cry Trainer: Patrick Gallagher Jockey: Aaron Gryder Best 1 1/8th Mile Time: 1:52.96 (calculated) – Wood Memorial Last Two Beyer Speed Figures: 74, 93 – 83.5 avg Best Beyer Speed Figure: 93 – Wood Memorial
2) Suddenbreakingnews(20/1) – A closer to consider for your Superfecta Career: 8 Starts 3-4-0-0 Last 3 starts: 1st–>5th–>2nd Sire: Mineshaft Trainer: Donnie Von Hemel Jockey: Luis Quinonez Best 1 1/8th Mile Time: 1:50.30 (calculated) – Arkansas Derby Last Two Beyer Speed Figures: 86, 94 – 90 avg Best Beyer Speed Figure: 94 – Arkansas Derby
3) Creator(10/1) – Arkansas Derby winner, a closer Career: 8 Starts 2-4-1-0 Last 3 starts: 1st–>3rd–>1st Sire: Tapit(Finished 9th in 2004 Kentucky Derby) Trainer: Steve Asmussen Jockey: Ricardo Santana Jr Best 1 1/8th Mile Time: 1:50.14 – Arkansas Derby Last Two Beyer Speed Figures: 90, 96 – 93 avg Best Beyer Speed Figure: 96 –Arkansas Derby
4) Mo Tom(20/1) – Lecomte Stakes winner who has regressed in 2 consecutive starts Career: 7 Starts 3-0-3-1 Last 3 starts: 1st–->3rd–>4th Sire: Uncle Mo(Finished 10th in 2011 Breeders’ Cup Classic) Trainer: Thomas Amoss Jockey: Corey Lanerie
Best 1 1/8th Mile Time: 1:52.02 (calculated) – Louisiana Derby Last Two Beyer Speed Figures: 87, 82 – 84.5 avg Best Beyer Speed Figure: 88 – Lecomte Stakes
5) Gun Runner(10/1) – Louisiana Derby winner, meager Beyer Speed Figures Career: 5 Starts 4-0-0-1 Last 3 starts: 4th–>1st–>1st Sire: Candy Ride Trainer: Steve Asmussen Jockey: Florent Geroux Best 1 1/8th Mile Time: 1:51.06 – Louisiana Derby Last Two Beyer Speed Figures: 90, 91 – 90.5 avg Best Beyer Speed Figure: 91 – Louisiana Derby
6) My Man Sam(20/1) – Surprise 2nd place finisher in Blue Grass Stakes Career: 4 Starts 1-2-0-0 Last 3 starts: 4th–>1st–>2nd Sire: Trappe Shot Trainer: Chad Brown Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr Best 1 1/8th Mile Time: 1:50.48 (calculated) –Blue Grass Stakes Last Two Beyer Speed Figures: 95, 88 – 91.5 avg Best Beyer Speed Figure: 95 – Aqueduct Opt Claiming Race 3/6/16
7) Oscar Nominated(50/1) – A turf horse who has never raced on real dirt Career: 7 Starts 3-2-0-2 Last 3 starts: 2nd–>2nd–>1st Sire: Kitten’s Joy Trainer: Michael Maker Jockey: Julien Leparoux
Best 1 1/8th Mile Time: 1:51.82 – Spiral Stakes Last Two Beyer Speed Figures: 79, 82 – 81.5 avg Best Beyer Speed Figure: 82 – Spiral Stakes
8) Lani(30/1) – Japanese trained horse who displayed great fight in winning the UAE Derby Career: 6 Starts 3-1-0-1 Last 3 starts: 1st–>5th–>1st
Sire: Tapit(Finished 9th in 2004 Kentucky Derby) Trainer: Mikio Matsunaga Jockey: Yukata Take Best 1 1/8th Mile Time: N/A – 1:52.84 (estimated time from 1900 Meter UAE Derby) Last Two Beyer Speed Figures: ?, 83 (estimated) Best Beyer Speed Figure: N/A
9) Destin(15/1) – Set track record at Tampa Bay Derby, never raced further than 1 1/16th mile Career: 5 Starts 3-1-0-1 Last 3 starts: 4th–>1st–>1st Sire: Giant’s Causeway(Finished 2nd in 2000 Breeders’ Cup Classic) Trainer: Todd Pletcher (2010 Kentucky Derby Winning Trainer) Jockey: Javier Castellano Best 1 1/8 Mile Time: N/A – 1:49.37 (projected time from 1 1/16 mile Tampa Bay Derby) Last Two Beyer Speed Figures: 98, 100 – 99 avg Best Beyer Speed Figure: 100 – Tampa Bay Derby
10) Whitmore(20/1) – A closer with a favorable post position & new jockey Victor Espinoza Career: 6 Starts 2-2-1-0 Last 3 starts: 2nd–>2nd–>3rd Sire: Pleasantly Perfect(2003 Breeders’ Cup Classic Winner) Trainer: Ron Moquett Jockey: Victor Espinoza (2002, 2014 & 2015 Kentucky Derby Winner)
Best 1 1/8th Mile Time: 1:52.89 (calculated) –Arkansas Derby Last Two Beyer Speed Figures: 92, 92 – 92 avg Best Beyer Speed Figure: 92 –Arkansas Derby
11) Exaggerator(8/1) – A closer & most likely threat to Nyquist. Best Beyer average in 2016 Career: 9 Starts 4-2-1-1 Last 3 starts: 2nd–>3rd–>1st Sire: Curlin (Finished 3rd in 2007 Kentucky Derby, 2007 Breeders’ Cup Classic Winner) Trainer: Keith Desormeaux Jockey: Kent Desormeaux (1998, 2000 & 2008 Kentucky Derby Winner) Best 1 1/8th Mile Time: 1:49.66 – Santa Anita Derby Last Two Beyer Speed Figures: 96, 103 – 99.5 avg Best Beyer Speed Figure: 103 – Santa Anita Derby
12) Tom’s Ready(30/1) – Not sure what he is ready for Career: 9 Starts 1-4-0-1 Last 3 starts: 2nd–>1st–>2nd Sire: More Than Ready Trainer: Dallas Stewart Jockey: Brian Hernandez Jr Best 1 1/8th Mile Time: 1:51.74 (calculated) – Louisiana Derby Last Two Beyer Speed Figures: 69, 85 – 77 avg Best Beyer Speed Figure: 85 – Louisiana Derby
13)Nyquist(3/1) – Undefeated race favorite, my projected winner Career: 7 Starts 7-0-0-0 Last 3 starts: 1st–>1st–>1st Sire: Uncle Mo(Finished 10th in 2011 Breeders’ Cup Classic) Trainer: Doug O’Neill (2012 Kentucky Derby Winning Trainer) Jockey: Mario Gutierrez (2012 Kentucky Derby Winner) Best 1 1/8th Mile Time: 1:49.11 – Florida Derby Last Two Beyer Speed Figures: 101, 94 – 97.5 avg Best Beyer Speed Figure: 101 – San Vicente Stakes
14) Mohaymen(10/1) – Coming off disappointing 4th place finish in Florida Derby Career: 6 Starts 5-0-0-1 Last 3 starts: 1st–>1st–>4th Sire: Tapit(Finished 9th in 2004 Kentucky Derby) Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin Jockey: Junior Alvarado Best 1 1/8th Mile Time: 1:50.43 (calculated) – Florida Derby Last Two Beyer Speed Figures: 95, 80 – 87.5 avg Best Beyer Speed Figure: 95 – Holy Bull Stakes
15) Outwork(15/1) – Might be Pletcher’s best Derby horse Career: 4 Starts 3-1-0-0 Last 3 starts: 1st–>2nd–>1st Sire: Uncle Mo(Finished 10th in 2011 Breeders’ Cup Classic) Trainer: Todd Pletcher (2010 Kentucky Derby Winning Trainer) Jockey: John Velazquez (2011 Kentucky Derby Winner) Best 1 1/8th Mile Time: 1:52.92 – Wood Memorial Last Two Beyer Speed Figures: 98, 93 – 95.5 avg Best Beyer Speed Figure: 98 – Tampa Bay Derby
16) Shagaf(20/1) – Coming off disappointing 5th place finish in the Wood Career: 4 Starts 3-0-0-0 Last 3 starts: 1st–>1st–>5th Sire: Bernardini (Finished 2nd in 2006 Breeders’ Cup Classic) Trainer: Chad Brown Jockey: Joel Rosario (2013 Kentucky Derby Winner) Best 1 1/8th Mile Time: 1:56.73 (calculated) –Wood Memorial Last Two Beyer Speed Figures: 87, 87 – 87 avg Best Beyer Speed Figure: 88 – Aqueduct MSW 11/22/15
17) Mor Spirit(12/1) – No horse has ever won the Kentucky Derby from post #17 Career: 7 Starts 3-4-0-0 Last 3 starts: 1st–>2nd–>2nd Sire: Eskendereya Trainer: Bob Baffert (1997, 1998, 2002, 2015 Kentucky Derby Winning Trainer) Jockey: Gary Stevens (1988, 1995 and 1998 Kentucky Derby Winner) Best 1 1/8th Mile Time: 1:50.66 (calculated) – Santa Anita Derby Last Two Beyer Speed Figures: 97, 94 – 95.5 avg Best Beyer Speed Figure: 97 – San Felipe Stakes
18) Majesto(30/1) – Coming off his career best performance Career: 6 Starts 1-2-2-0 Last 3 starts: 3rd–>1st–>2nd Sire: Tiznow(2000 and 2001 Breeders’ Cup Classic Winner) Trainer: Gustavo Delgado Jockey: Emisael Jaramillo Best 1 1/8th Mile Time: 1:49.63 (calculated) – Florida Derby Last Two Beyer Speed Figures: 84, 89 – 87.5 avg Best Beyer Speed Figure: 89 – Florida Derby
19) Brody’s Cause (12/1) –Blue Grass Stakes winner, a closer to consider for your Superfecta Career: 6 Starts 3-0-1-0 Last 3 starts: 3rd–>7th–>1st Sire: Giant’s Causeway (Finished 2nd in 2000 Breeders’ Cup Classic) Trainer: Dale Romans Jockey: Luis Saez Best 1 1/8th Mile Time: 1:50.20 – Blue Grass Stakes Last Two Beyer Speed Figures: 80, 91 – 85.5 avg Best Beyer Speed Figure: 91 – Blue Grass Stakes
20) Danzing Candy(15/1) – A speed horse who is viewed as the most likely pacesetter Career: 5 Starts 3-0-0-1 Last 3 starts: 1st–>1st–>4th Sire: Twirling Candy Trainer: Clifford Sise Projected Jockey: Mike Smith (2005 Kentucky Derby Winner) Best 1 1/8th Mile Time: 1:51.78 (calculated) – Santa Anita Derby Last Two Beyer Speed Figures: 100, 83 – 91.5 avg Best Beyer Speed Figure: 100 – San Felipe Stakes
RANKINGS
Since the Kentucky Derby is usually won by the horse that gets to the 1 1/8th pole first, below is the Kentucky Derby field ranked by time in their last race (1 1/8th mile) along with Beyer Speed Figures. Destin and Lani’s times are projected since their last race wasn’t at 1 1/8th mile.
Coming this Saturday will be the most intriguing race thus far this year when the top two Kentucky Derby contenders, Nyquist and Mohaymen, square off in the Florida Derby. It is very unusual for the consensus top two to meet before the Kentucky Derby as owners usually opt for the past of least resistance–a different Derby prep race and a better chance for 1st place money. Since both horses are undefeated, this is must-watch TV.
Mohaymen should be the race favorite, having already raced at the 1 1/8th mile distance as a 2 year old and also having two races of experience at Gulfstream Park. Whoever wins this race will be the heavy Kentucky Derby favorite will be from here on out. I expect the final race time to be in the 1:48 range provided it is run on a dry, fast track. Below are the post positions and morning line odds. I expect Mohaymen’s final race odds to lower, probably to 4/5.
Florida Derby – 1 1/8th Mile – Race #14 Gulfstream Park April 2nd – Post Time: 5:48PM CST
Commentary: Overall, I think this race will shake out in this order: 1st- Mohaymen, 2nd-Nyquist and 3rd-Fellowship. But Fellowship, who has finished 3rd to Mohaymen in his last two starts at Gulfstream, could be a surprise in this race. So I would recommend playing a $10 Trifecta 4/9 over 2/4/9 over 2/4 that would cost $30. There will be a lot of 9 over 4 Exactas or 4/9 Boxed Exactas played in this race–I may play some too. However, if Fellowship can bust up the perceived Mohaymen-Nyquist 1-2 Finish, your Trifecta will pay out very nice.
If you want Superfecta advice, I would probably place a $5 straight Superfecta bet of 9 over 4 over 2 over 3/7/10. That will cost $15. I just don’t see this race as a great superfecta betting race with two low odds horses expected to finish 1-2.
Mike's Derby Picks 