Materiality Horse | Mike's Derby Picks

American Pharoah Returns! The Jim Dandy Stakes and Haskell Invitational Preview

Posted on July 30, 2015 by Michael J. Cox

This coming weekend, there are two key races on the road to the Breeders’ Cup Classic. Saturday August 1st at Saratoga will be the Jim Dandy Stakes with a handful of familiar names from the Kentucky Derby trail. On Sunday August 2nd, American Pharoah makes his first start since winning the Triple Crown in The William Hill Haskell Invitational at Monmouth Park. Both races are 1 1/8th mile.

The Jim Dandy Stakes carries a $600,000 purse and has three notable entries in Frosted (2/1), Upstart (3/1) and Texas Red (7/2). Also entered are: Competitive Edge (8/1), Frammento (20/1), Tekton (10/1) and a horse on the rise named Japan (10/1). However, please note that Upstart and Competitive Edge are cross-entered in the Haskell Invitational, so the field could have as few as five horses. Post time will be 5:13 PM CST and the race will be televised on TVG.

Overall, this race is wide-open and I don’t feel good enough about this one to give betting advice. Texas Red has been rehabbing from an injury suffered earlier in the year and he is slowly working his way back to form. Upstart hasn’t raced since the Kentucky Derby. Frosted is best suited for distance races. Too many unknowns, so this is a race to watch but not one to bet on. Last year a $2 Superfecta in a 5 horse field only paid out a measly $69.

The Haskell Invitational carries a $1,750,000 dollar purse and is part of the Breeders’ Cup Classic “Win and You’re In” program. The race winner is assured one of the 14 spots in the $5,000,000 Breeders’ Cup Classic. The race will be aired on NBC and will have an approximate post time of 4:42 PM CST.

American Pharoah will have six challengers and here are the post positions and Morning Line Odds:

1. Upstart – Joe Bravo – 6-1
2. Competitive Edge – Mike Smith 8-1
3. ~~Nonna’s Boy~~ – SCRATCHED
4. American Pharoah – Victor Espinoza – 1-5
5. Mr. Jordan – Paco Lopez – 15-1
6. Keen Ice – Kent Desormeaux – 12-1
7. Top Clearance – Javier Castellano – 30-1
8. Dontbetwithbruno – TBA – 30-1

Overall, I expect American Pharoah to wire this field. Todd Pletcher has three horses entered: Competitive Edge, Nonna’s Boy and Dontbetwithbruno. (Update: Nonna’s Boy was scratched). I would recommend placing Superfectas keying American Pharoah to win. So I would recommend placing four 10 cent superfectas keying American Pharoah to win: 4 with ALL, with ALL, with ALL. Each would cost $12. And a $1 Superfecta Part Wheel: 4 with 1,5,6, with 1,2,5,6,8, with ALL. This bet would cost $48. Total bet $96. Put $4 on American Pharoah to Place and there is $100.

–Michael

Belmont Stakes Preview & Triple Crown Anticipation

Posted on June 4, 2015 by Michael J. Cox

The final leg of the Triple Crown will be the Belmont Stakes this Saturday June 6th. Post time will be 5:50PM CST and the race will be aired on NBC. Below are the post positions and morning line odds.

1 Mubtaahij – 10-1 Jockey I. Ortiz/Trainer de Kock
2 Tale of Verve – 15-1 Jockey Stevens/Trainer Stewart
3 Madefromlucky – 12-1 Jockey Castellano/Trainer Pletcher
4 Frammento – 30-1 Jockey Smith/Trainer Zito
5 American Pharoah – 3-5 Jockey Espinoza/Trainer Baffert
6 Frosted – 5-1 Jockey Rosario/Trainer McLaughlin
7 Keen Ice – 20-1 Jockey Desormeaux/Trainer Romans
8 Materiality – 6-1 Jockey Velazquez/Trainer Pletcher

Who do I like to win? Although history is not on American Pharoah’s side, his chances are better than one would think. Even though the last 13 Triple Crown contenders failed to win the Belmont Stakes, 11 out of 30 horses who won the Kentucky Derby, Preakness Stakes and competed in the Belmont Stakes, won the race to complete the Triple Crown. That is a percentage of 36.7%. The average finish of all 30 horses was 2.43, so that is essentially 2nd or 3rd finish.

The only horse in this field that I feel is capable of beating American Pharoah is Frosted but I think American Pharoah will prevail. But never count out a Todd Pletcher horse and Materiality is his best horse for this race.

At 3/5 odds for American Pharoah, a $2 bet will only pay $3.20. I expect the live odds to be about 3/5 or 4/5 at post time. I think a 5-6 straight Exacta would be a good bet for this race.

As far as Trifecta betting, 5-6-ALL. That is 5 over 6 over 1,2,3,4,7 & 8. This $10 Trifecta will cost $60. For Superfecta betting, I would do a Superfecta wheel keying American Pharoah to win with the field and hope that some high odds horses finish in the money.

Another bet to consider if you want to hedge your bets and potentially get a huge payout if the unexpected occurs, is placing a 10-Cent Superfecta using the entire field. A 10-Cent bet using the 8 horse field would cost $168. You are guaranteed to get some of that money back and you could get real lucky like in 2002 when the Belmont Stakes paid out $145,334 for a $2 bet. If this was applied as a 10-Cent bet it would pay back $7,266.

–Michael

My Top Five 2015 Kentucky Derby Contenders

Posted on April 14, 2015 by Michael J. Cox

Below is my top 5 Kentucky Derby contenders. Far From Over was injured at the end of March and is off the Kentucky Derby Trail. My early pick for the Kentucky Derby and Kentucky Oaks are Dortmund and Condo Commando respectively. American Pharoah and Dortmund are close enough in talent that post position may cause me to lean one way or the other. As far as early betting strategies, I would probably be thinking about placing a nice boxed exacta on Dortmund and American Pharoah.

My feelings for why I favor Dortmund at this point is the fact that he has yet to be defeated. He was proven that he will dig in when challenged at the finish line (twice against Firing Line). He is a big, strong colt which should give him an advantage in going an extra 1/8th mile in the Kentucky Derby’s distance of 1 1/4th mile as opposed to these final prep races that have been 1 1/8th mile. His sire Big Brown was a Kentucky Derby winner in 2008 while American Pharoah’s sire Pioneerof the Nile finished 2nd in the Kentucky Derby in 2009.

1A) Dortmund (Kentucky Bred- Won in 1st start) – Derby Points: 170
Sire: Big Brown – 2008 Kentucky Derby & Preakness Stakes Winner
Jockey: Martin Garcia

6 Starts, 6 Wins, Win Pct: 100%, Graded Stakes Win Pct: 100%
Last Three Starts: 1st (103 Beyer), 1st (104 Beyer). 1st (106 Beyer)
Average Beyer Speed Figure of Last Two Starts: 105
Fastest 1 1/16 Mile Time: 1:40.86 at Los Alamitos 12/20/14
Fastest 1 1/8th Mile Time: 1:48.73 at Santa Anita Park 4/4/15
Dortmund’s Equibase Profile

1B) American Pharoah (Kentucky Bred – Won in 2nd start) – Derby Points: 160
Sire: Pioneerof the Nile – Finished 2nd in 2009 Kentucky Derby
Jockey: Victor Espinoza

5 Starts, 4 Wins, Win Pct: 80%, Graded Stakes Win Pct: 100%
Last Three Starts: 1st (101 Beyer), 1st (100 Beyer), 1st (105 Beyer)
Average Beyer Speed Figure of Last Two Starts: 102.5
Fastest 1 1/16th Mile Time: 1:41.95 at Santa Anita Park 9/27/14
Fastest 1 1/8th Mile Time: 1:48.52 at Oaklawn Park 4/11/15
American Pharoah’s Equibase Profile

3) Firing Line (Kentucky Bred – Won in 2nd start) – Derby Points: 58
Sire: Line of David – Won 2010 Arkansas Derby, finished 18th in 2010 Kentucky Derby
Jockey: Gary Stevens

5 Starts, 2 Wins, Win Pct: 40%, Graded Stakes Win Pct: 33%
Last Three Starts: 2nd (91 Beyer), 2nd (104 Beyer), 1st (97 Beyer)
Average Beyer Speed Figure of Last Two Starts: 100.5
Fastest 1 1/16th Mile Time: 1:40.88 (calculated) at Los Alamitos 12/20/14
Fastest 1 1/8th Mile Time: 1:47.39 (track record) at Sunland Park 3/22/15
Firing Line’s Equibase Profile

4) Carpe Diem (Kentucky Bred – Won in 1st start) – Derby Points: 164
Sire: Giant’s Causeway – Finished 2nd in the 2000 Breeders’ Cup Classic
Jockey: John Velazquez

5 Starts, 4 Wins, Win Pct: 80%, Graded Stakes Win Pct: 80%
Last Three Starts: 2nd (91 Beyer), 2nd (93 Beyer), 1st (98 Beyer)
Average Beyer Speed Figure of Last Two Starts: 95.5
Fastest 1 1/16th Mile Time: 1:42.95 (calculated) at Santa Anita Park 11/1/14
Fastest 1 1/8th Mile Time: 1:49.77 at Keeneland 4/4/2015
Carpe Diem’s Equibase Profile

5) Materiality (Kentucky Bred – Won in 1st start) – Derby Points: 100
Sire: Afleet Alex – 2005 Preakness Stakes & Belmont Stakes Winner
Jockey: Kent Desormeaux?

3 Starts, 3 Wins, Win Pct: 100%, Graded Stakes Win Pct: 100%
Last Three Starts: 1st (87 Beyer), 1st (104 Beyer), 1st (110 Beyer)
Average Beyer Speed Figure of Last Two Starts: 107
Fastest 1 1/16th Mile Time: n/a
Fastest 1 1/8th Mile Time: 1:49.32 at Gulfstream Park 3/6/15
Materiality’s Equibase Profile

My Sensational Seven 2015 Kentucky Derby Contenders

Posted on March 23, 2015 by Michael J. Cox

American Pharoah #4 in the Rebel stakes. Photo: Eclipse Sportswire

Below is an updated ranking on my top seven Kentucky Derby contenders. As you can see, American Pharoah moved up my list due to his Rebel Stakes performance that answered a lot of questions as to how he would fare coming a long layoff. Firing Line returns to my top seven with his landslide victory in the Sunland Derby where he set a track record. He was always a talented colt, just needed to race where didn’t have to beat Dortmund.

Texas Red has been removed from my list as he is officially off the Derby trail. The Desormeaux brothers don’t feel that they have enough lead time to prep for the Kentucky Derby. Materiality is new addition to my list. His jockey has been John Velazquez but Velazquez will likely be Carpe Diem’s rider in the Kentucky Derby. So Materiality could be Kent Desormeaux’s mount in place of Texas Red for the Kentucky Derby. That is, if he can secure the necessary Derby points in the Florida Derby. He is the half brother to Texas Red as they shared the same sire (Afleet Alex).

1) Dortmund (Kentucky Bred- Won in 1st start) – Derby Points: 70
Sire: Big Brown – 2008 Kentucky Derby & Preakness Stakes Winner
Jockey: Martin Garcia

5 Starts, 5 Wins, Win Pct: 100%, Graded Stakes Win Pct: 100%
Last Three Starts: 1st (91 Beyer), 1st (103 Beyer), 1st (104 Beyer)
Average Beyer Speed Figure of Last Two Starts: 103.5
Fastest 1 1/16 Mile Time-: 1:40.86 at Los Alamitos 12/20/14
Next Race: Santa Anita Derby – April 4th
Dortmund’s Equibase Profile

2) American Pharoah (Kentucky Bred – Won in 2nd start) – Derby Points: 60
Sire: Pioneerof the Nile – Finished 2nd in 2009 Kentucky Derby
Jockey: Victor Espinoza

4 Starts, 3 Wins, Win Pct: 75%, Graded Stakes Win Pct: 100%
Last Three Starts: 1st (101 Beyer), 1st (101 Beyer), 1st (100 Beyer)
Average Beyer Speed Figure of Last Two Starts: 100.5
Fastest 1 1/16th Mile Time: 1:41.95 at Santa Anita Park 9/27/14
Next Race: Arkansas Derby – April 11th
American Pharoah’s Equibase Profile

3) Firing Line (Kentucky Bred – Won in 2nd start) – Derby Points: 58
Sire: Line of David – Won 2010 Arkansas Derby, finished 18th in 2010 Kentucky Derby
Jockey: Gary Stevens

5 Starts, 2 Wins, Win Pct: 40%, Graded Stakes Win Pct: 33%
Last Three Starts: 2nd (91 Beyer), 2nd (104 Beyer), 1st (97 Beyer)
Average Beyer Speed Figure of Last Two Starts: 100.5
Fastest 1 1/16th Mile Time: 1:40.88 (calculated) at Los Alamitos 12/20/14
Fastest 1 1/8th Mile Time: 1:47.39 (track record) at Sunland Park 3/22/15
Next Race: Kentucky Derby – May 2nd
Firing Line’s Equibase Profile

4) Upstart (New York Bred – Won in 1st start) – Derby Points: 36
Sire: Flatter whose sire was A.P. Indy – 1992 Belmont Stakes & Breeders’ Cup Classic
Jockey: Jose Ortiz

6 Starts, 3 Wins, Win Pct: 50%, Graded Stakes Win Pct: 25%
Last Three Starts: 3rd (93 Beyer), 1st (105* Beyer), 2nd–DQ from 1st (95 Beyer)
Average Beyer Speed Figure of Last Two Starts: 100
Fastest 1 1/16th Mile Time: 1:42.96 (calculated) at Santa Anita Park 11/1/14
Next Race: Florida Derby – March 28th
*Some references list this Beyer Speed figure at 106, I chose the lower
Upstart’s Equibase Profile

5) Carpe Diem (Kentucky Bred – Won in 1st start) – Derby Points: 64
Sire: Giant’s Causeway – Finished 2nd in the 2000 Breeders’ Cup Classic
Jockey: John Velazquez

4 Starts, 3 Wins, Win Pct: 75%, Graded Stakes Win Pct: 67%
Last Three Starts: 1st (91 Beyer), 2nd (93 Beyer), 1st (98 Beyer)
Average Beyer Speed Figure of Last Two Starts: 95.5
Fastest 1 1/16th Mile Time: 1:42.95 (calculated) at Santa Anita Park 11/1/14
Next Race: Blue Grass Stakes – April 11th
Carpe Diem’s Equibase Profile

6) Far From Over (Kentucky Bred – Won in 1st start) – Derby Points: 10
Sire: Blame – 2010 Breeders’ Cup Classic Winner
Jockey: Manuel Franco

2 Starts, 2 Wins, Win Pct: 100%, Graded Stakes Win Pct: 100%
Last Three Starts: 1st (78 Beyer), 1st (96 Beyer)
Average Beyer Speed Figure of Last Two Starts: 82
Fastest 1 1/16th Mile Time: 1:43.93 at Aqueduct 2/7/15
Next Race: Wood Memorial – April 4th
Far From Over’s Equibase Profile

7) Materiality (Kentucky Bred – Won in 1st start) – Derby Points: 0
Sire: Afleet Alex – 2005 Preakness Stakes & Belmont Stakes Winner
Jockey: Kent Desormeaux?

2 Starts, 2 Wins, Win Pct: 100%, Graded Stakes Win Pct: 100%
Last Three Starts: 1st (87 Beyer), 1st (104 Beyer)
Average Beyer Speed Figure of Last Two Starts: 95.5
Fastest 1 1/16th Mile Time: n/a
Fastest 1 1/8th Mile Time: 1:49.32 at Gulfstream Park 3/6/15
Next Race: Florida Derby – March 28th
Materiality’s Equibase Profile

Below is a ranking of the average Beyer Speed Figures of my top seven horses last two starts. Ties are broken by the higher speed in the last start.

Ranking By Average Beyer Speed Figures of Last Two Starts(Last Start):
1) Dortmund 103.5 (104)
2) American Pharoah 100.5 (100)
3) Firing Line 100.5 (97)
4) Upstart 100 (95)
5) Materiality 95.5 (104)
6) Carpe Diem 95.5 (98)
7) Far From Over 82 (96)

–Michael

American Pharoah Back In Action & My Updated Top 6 Kentucky Derby Contenders

Posted on March 12, 2015 by Michael J. Cox

American Pharoah (Benoit Photo)

The 2014 Eclipse 2 Year-Old Horse of the Year will be back in action this Saturday March 14th at Oaklawn Park in the Rebel Stakes (Race #10). Post Time is 6:06 PM CST. American Pharoah is the Morning Line favorite at 1/2 odds. In this seven horse field, his toughest competition will come from Post #1 The Truth or Else (4/1 Odds) ridden by Calvin Borel, the Steve Asmussen-trained Bold Conquest (8/1 Odds) and Todd Pletcher’s other entry–Madefromlucky (6/1 Odds).

As with any horse coming off a long layoff, I expect bettors to push American Pharoah’s odds higher and closer to 1/1. If I were betting this weekend, I probably would steer clear from betting on this race. However, if you want my recommendation, I would probably place a $10 1-4 Boxed Exacta on American Pharoah-The Truth or Else and hope that Calvin Borel does his rail magic. I would also consider a $1 1-2-4 Boxed Trifecta (The Truth or Elise, Madefromluck and American Pharoah). If American Pharoah’s odds push closer to 2-1, then I might lay down another $20 Win bet on him.

Below is an updated list on my Top Six Kentucky Derby contenders.

1) Dortmund (Kentucky Bred- Won in 1st start) – Derby Points: 70
Sire: Big Brown – 2008 Kentucky Derby & Preakness Stakes Winner

2) Upstart (New York Bred – Won in 1st start) – Derby Points: 36
Sire: Flatter whose sire was A.P. Indy – 1992 Belmont Stakes & Breeders’ Cup Classic

6 Starts, 3 Wins, Win Pct: 50%, Graded Stakes Win Pct: 25%
Last Three Starts: 3rd (93 Beyer), 1st (105 Beyer), 2nd–DQ from 1st (95 Beyer)
Average Beyer Speed Figure of Last Two Starts: 100
Fastest 1 1/16th Mile Time: 1:42.96 (calculated) at Santa Anita Park 11/1/14
Next Race: Florida Derby – March 28th
Upstart’s Equibase Profile

3) Texas Red (Kentucky Bred – Won in 3rd start) – Derby Points: 12
Sire: Afleet Alex – 2005 Preakness Stakes & Belmont Stakes Winner

6 Starts, 2 Wins, Win Pct: 33%, Graded Stakes Win Pct: 33%
Last Three Starts: 3rd (93 Beyer), 1st (104 Beyer), 2nd (90 Beyer)
Average Beyer Speed Figure of Last Two Starts: 97
Fastest 1 1/16th Mile Time: 1:41.91 at Santa Anita Park 11/1/14
Next Race: Santa Anita Derby – April 4th or Arkansas Derby – April 11th
Texas Red’s Equibase Profile

4) American Pharoah (Kentucky Bred – Won in 2nd start) – Derby Points: 10
Sire: Pioneerof the Nile – Finished 2nd in 2009 Kentucky Derby

3 Starts, 2 Wins, Win Pct: 67%, Graded Stakes Win Pct: 100%
Last Three Starts: 5th, 1st (101 Beyer), 1st (101 Beyer)
Average Beyer Speed Figure of Last Two Starts: 101
Fastest 1 1/16th Mile Time: 1:41.95 at Santa Anita Park 9/27/14
Next Race: Rebel Stakes – March 14th
American Pharoah’s Equibase Profile

5) Carpe Diem (Kentucky Bred – Won in 1st start) – Derby Points: 64
Sire: Giant’s Causeway – Finished 2nd in the 2000 Breeders’ Cup Classic

Kentucky Derby Future Wager Final Odds: Pool #1: 15-1, Pool #2: 12-1
Current Morning Line Odds: 12-1

6) Far From Over (Kentucky Bred – Won in 1st start) – Derby Points: 10
Sire: Blame – 2010 Breeders’ Cup Classic Winner

And another horse to keep an eye on from the Todd Pletcher stable–Materiality who posted a 104 Beyer Speed Figure in a 1 1/8th mile race at Gulfstream Park on March 6th (shown below).

Materiality (Kentucky Bred – Won in 1st start) – Derby Points: 0
Sire: Afleet Alex – 2005 Preakness Stakes & Belmont Stakes Winner

2 Starts, 2 Wins, Win Pct: 100%, Graded Stakes Win Pct: 100%
Last Three Starts: 1st (87 Beyer), 1st (104 Beyer)
Average Beyer Speed Figure of Last Two Starts: 95.5
Fastest 1 1/16th Mile Time: n/a
Next Race: Unknown
Materiality’s Equibase Profile

Below is a ranking of the average Beyer Speed Figures of my top six horses last two starts. Ties are broken by the higher speed in the last start. Materiality was added to the list for comparison purposes.

Ranking By Average Beyer Speed Figures of Last Two Starts:
1) Dortmund 103.5
2) American Pharoah 101
3) Upstart 100
4) Texas Red 97
5) Materiality 95.5
6) Carpe Diem 95.5
7) Far From Over 82

–Michael