2018 Florida Derby Preview – A Todd Pletcher Repeat?


March 29th 2018 – Updated March 31st 5:25 PM CST

Another huge weekend on the Derby trail is coming up this Saturday with the Florida Derby. Three of the last five Florida Derby winners went on to win the Kentucky Derby. I will admit up front that I am a bit disappointed with the quality of this year’s field. I think a race of this stature and a purse of $1 Million dollars should have attracted another heavy hitter or two other on the Derby trail other than Aubible and Promises Fulfilled.

However, slap me silly, remember that the Todd Pletcher-trained Always Dreaming was the surprise winner last year having never won a Graded Stakes race entering that race. And Always Dreaming went on to win the Kentucky Derby. So this race deserves your attention.

Below are the entries, post-positions, jockey assignments and morning line odds for the 105th Louisiana Derby. The race will be televised live by NBC Sports Network.

The Florida Derby

The Florida Derby – 1 1/8th Mile – Race #14 at Gulfstream Park – Post-Time: Saturday March 31st at 5:30 PM CST. Televised by NBCSN 

1. Strike Power (122) – Saez/Hennig – 4/1
2. Millionaire Runner (122) – Batista/Mejia – 50/1
3. Tip Sheet (122) – Zayas/Gold – 30/1
4. Promises Fulfilled (122) – Albarado/Romans – 3/1
5. Storm Runner (122) – Gaffalione/Romans – 20/1
6. Catholic Boy (122) – I.Ortiz Jr/Thomas – 7/2
7. Hofburg (122) – J. Ortiz/Mott – 20/1
8. Audible (122) – Velazquez/Pletcher – 9/5
9. Mississippi (116) – Leparoux/Casse – 12/1

Race Commentary:  This race should come down to Aubible, Promises Fulfilled and Catholic Boy for the win. I ranked the Todd Pletcher trainee Audible in my Top 3 Kentucky Derby Contenders awhile back behind Bolt d’Oro and McKinzie. Will trainer Todd Pletcher be a repeat winner of the Florida Derby?

Nothing I have seen in my research for this races changes my mind about Audible. So he will be my favorite for this year’s Florida Derby so long as it is a dry race. Audible has been training well and ran an impressive time of 1:41.92 in the 8 1/2 furlong Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream Park back on February 3rd. 

UPDATE: There no scratches and no chance of rain. The betting public right now likes Aubible and Catholic Boy and is cold on Promises Fulfilled. I still like big straight win bets on Audible.

On the Docket…

My next blog will preview the 2018 Santa Anita Derby and the much-anticipated rematch of Bolt d’Oro vs McKinzie at Santa Anita Park. I will also preview the best of the two remaining Derby prep races that day between the Blue Grass Stakes and the Wood Memorial depending upon their entries. If time permits, I will preview all three.


2018 Holy Bull and Wither Stakes Previews


February 2nd 2018 – Updated February 3rd 4AM 

The road to the Kentucky Derby continues tomorrow with three point paying races scheduled: The Withers Stakes, the Robert B. Lewis and the Holy Bull Stakes. I will only preview two of the races as I have been a bit under the weather and feel that the Withers Stakes and Holy Bull have the more talented fields.

After the Pegasus World Cup, I spent time researching and compiling a Top 25 2018 Kentucky Derby contender list. I did this in anticipation of a Pool #2 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wagers opening up next Friday February 9th. Five of the horses on my list are entered in races tomorrow. These colts are: Firenze Fire, Marconi and Avery Island in the Withers and Enticed, Free Drop Billy and Tiz Mischief in the Holy Bull.

The Robert B. Lewis Stakes usually has at least one high profile Derby contender but none of the 9 horses in that field were in my Top 25 list.

The Withers Stakes

The Withers – 1 1/8th Mile – Race #8 at Aqueduct – Post-Time: Saturday February 3rd at 3:35 PM CST. Televised by FS2 (Fox Sports 2) 

1. Firenze Fire (122) – McCarthy/Servis – 9/5
2. Marconi (116) – Lopez/Pletcher – 3/1
3. Bal Harbour (118) – Carmouche/Pletcher – 6/1
4. Avery Island (122) – Bravo/McLaughlin – 8/5
5. Coltandmississippi (118) – Alvarado/Pletcher – 12/1
6. California Night (116) – Hernandez/Maker – 15/1

Race Commentary:  Although this field is small with six horses, it has three talented colts in Firenze Fire, Marconi and Avery Island. The 9 furlong (1 1/8th mile distance) will provide a good measuring stick as the final Derby preps before the Kentucky Derby are all run at the 9 furlong distance.

As far as who I think will win? This one is too tough to handicap. I’d probably lean towards Avery Island or Marconi since they both have raced at Aqueduct at the same 9 furlong distance back in December. But Firenze Fire ran very well in his last start at Aqueduct in the Jerome Stakes at 8 furlongs. So if you are planning on betting, how about a Boxed Trifecta using these three horses?

The Holy Bull Stakes

The Holy Bull Stakes – 1 1/16th Mile – Race #12 at Gulfstream Park – Post-Time: Saturday February 3rd at 4:49 PM CST. Televised by FS2 (Fox Sports 2) and TVG

1. Enticed (122) – Rosario/McLaughlin – 3/1
2. Free Drop Billy (122) – Saez/Romans – 6/1
3. Master Manipulator (116) – Ortiz/Guillot – 20/1
4. Audible (116) – Castellano/Pletcher – 6/1
5. Bandito (116) – Zavas/Romans – 20/1
6. Hollywood Star (116) – Ortiz Jr/Romans – 12/1
7. Tiz Mischief (116) – Albarado/Romans – 4/1
8. Pony Up (116) – Velazquez/Pletcher – 8/1
9. Tip Sheet (116) – Jaramillo/Gold – 30/1
10. Aequor (116) – Lezcano/Delgado – 15/1
11.Mississippi (116) – Leparoux/Casse – 5/1

Race Commentary:  Overall, I think this race comes down to Enticed and Tiz Mischief. The two horses battled for the win in the Kentucky Jockey Club stakes at Churchill Downs back in November (see below)

The Godolphin owned colt, Enticed, would rank in my Top Five 2018 Kentucky Derby contenders. He has a great pedigree (Sire: Medaglia d’Oro out of a Mineshaft mare It’s Tricky). His mother, It’s Tricky, was a great runner herself, winning the 2011 Acorn Stakes, the 2011 Coaching Club American Oaks, the 2012 Ogden Phipps Handicap.

However, I am anxious to see how Todd Pletcher’s entries Audible and Pony Up fare. In a field of 11 with such inexperience, anything can happen. So expect the unexpected. Perhaps the best bet would be a 1-7 Boxed Exacta (Enticed-Tiz Mischief). A sleeper in this field could be the Mark Casse-trained colt Mississippi. However, he will have to overcome an unfortunate far outside post-position. This race will answer a lot of questions and hopefully produce an early Florida Derby frontrunner.

On the Docket…

My next blog will focus in on the Kentucky Derby Future Wagers scheduled for next weekend, opening up Friday February 9th and closing on Sunday evening February 11th.