June 5th 2018 – Updated June 6th 2018 11PM CST Below are the entries, post-positions, jockey assignments and morning line odds for the 150th running of the Belmont Stakes. The race will be aired live on NBC this coming Saturday around 5:37 PM CST. One interesting factoid, three out of the last four Belmont Stakes winners (Tonalist, Creator and Tapwri) were sired by Tapit. This is why Hofburg is the second favorite, though I really think Vino Rosso is the 2nd most talented colt in this field behind Justify.
2018 Belmont Stakes Field
1) Justify (4/5) – The 2018 Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes winner. He will attempt to become the 13th Triple Crown champion.
Career: 5 Starts 5-0-0-0Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 3 Last 3 starts: 1st–>1st–>1st Sire: Scat Daddy Trainer: Bob Baffert (2001 & 2015 Belmont Stakes Winning Trainer) Jockey: Mike Smith (2010 & 2013 Belmont Stakes Winner) Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 107 – 2018 Santa Anita Derby
2) Free Drop Billy(30/1) – The Dale Romans-trained Breeders’s Futurity winner. He had a disappointing 16th place finish in the Kentucky Derby. His entry in the Belmont Stakes will depend on how he trains this week. His sire, Union Rags, won the 2012 Belmont Stakes/
Career: 9 Starts 2-3-2-0Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 1 Last 3 starts: 3rd–>3rd–>16th Sire: Union Rags(Finished 1st in the 2012 Belmont Stakes) Trainer: Dale Romans Jockey: Robby Albarado Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 90 – 2018 Holy Bull Stakes
3) Bravazo(8/1) – The Risen Star Stakes winner had the best run of his career in the Preakness Stakes, finishing 2nd behind Justify by a half length. Trained by four time Belmont Stakes winner D. Wayne Lukas. Bravazo will be the 2nd favorite with bettors on Belmont Stakes day. H was coming like a runaway freight train in that last furlong in the Preakness Stakes and made the race interesting.
Career: 10 Starts 3-2-1-0 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 0 Last 3 starts: 8th–>6th–>2nd Sire: Awesome Again Trainer: D.Wayne Lukas (1994, 1995, 1996 & 2000 Belmont Stakes.Winning Trainer) Jockey: Luis Saez Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 96 – 2018 Preakness Stakes
4) Hofburg (9/2) – After a 2nd place finish in the Florida Derby (shown below), Hofburg followed up this effort with a 7th place finish in the Kentucky Derby. He has a former Belmont Stakes winning trainer and jockey in his corner.
Career: 4 Starts 1-1-0-1Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 0 Last 3 starts: 1st–>2nd–>7th Sire: Tapit Trainer: William Mott (2010 Belmont Stakes Winning Trainer) Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr (2016 Belmont Stakes Winner) Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 94 – 2018 Florida Derby
5)Restoring Hope (30/1) – Another new shooter who finished 3rd in the Wood Memorial (shown below). He had a disappointing effort in the sloppy Pat Day Mile, finishing 12th.
Career: 5 Starts 1-1-2-0Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 0 Last 3 starts: 1st–>3rd–>12th Sire: Giant’s Causeway Trainer: Bob Baffert (2001 & 2015 Belmont Stakes Winning Trainer) Jockey: Florent Geroux Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 90 -2018 Wood Memorial
6) Gronkowski(12/1) – A European runner who is named after New England Patriots Tight End Rob Gronkowski. He is now being trained by Chad Brown. Gronkowski has primarily raced on synthetic or turf surfaces and has never raced longer than a mile. So he appears to be a better fit for the Met Mile on Belmont Stakes day.
Career: 6 Starts 4-1-0-0Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 0 Last 3 starts: 1st–>1st-->1st Sire: Lonhro Trainer: Chad Brown Jockey: Jose Ortiz (2017 Belmont Stakes Winner) Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: N/A
7) Tenfold (12/1) – The Steve Asmussen-trained colt finished 5th in the Arkansas Derby and had a surprising 3rd place finish in the Preakness Stakes.
Career: 4 Starts 2-0-1-0Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 0 Last 3 starts: 1st–>5th–>3rd Sire: Curlin(Finished 2nd in the 2007 Belmont Stakes) Trainer: Steve Asmussen (2016 Belmont Stakes Winning Trainer) Jockey: Ricardo Santana Jr. Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 95 – 2018 Preakness Stakes
8) Vino Rosso(8/1) – The Wood Memorial winner. He finished 9th in the Kentucky Derby. He has a proven Belmont Stakes winning trainer and jockey behind him.
Career: 6 Starts 3-0-1-1Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 0 Last 3 starts: 4th–>1st–>9th Sire: Curlin(Finished 2nd in the 2007 Belmont Stakes) Trainer: Todd Pletcher (2007, 2013 & 2017 Belmont Stakes Winning Trainer) Jockey: John Velasquez (2007 and 2012 Belmont Stakes Winner) Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 98 – 2018 Wood Memorial
9) Noble Indy (30/1) – The surprise winner of the 2018 Louisiana Derby winner. He bombed in the sloppy Kentucky Derby with a 17th place finish. Trained by Todd Pletcher who is one of the best at preparing 3-year-old colts for the mile and a half.
Career: 5 Starts 3-0-1-0Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 0 Last 3 starts: 3rd–>1st–>17th Sire: Take Charge Indy Trainer: Todd Pletcher (2007, 2013 & 2017 Belmont Stakes Winning Trainer) Jockey: Javier Castellano Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 95 – 2018 Louisiana Derby
10) Blended Citizen(15/1) – A new shooter. He is coming off a win in the Peter Pan Stakes at Belmont Park. So you know he likes track surface. He finished 5th in the Blue Grass Stakes.
Career: 10 Starts 3-0-2-0Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 0 Last 3 starts: 1st–>5th–>1st Sire: Proud Citizen (Finished 5th in the 2002 Belmont Stakes) Trainer: Doug O’Neill Jockey: Kyle Frey Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 90 – 2018 Peter Pan Stakes
On the docket…
My next blog will provide race analysis. I will also have an article for US Racing on Justify’s chances of winning the Triple Crown. –Michael
We are now two weeks away from the final leg of the Triple Crown. Below is an early look at the 2018 Belmont Stakes field. I have included my best guess on their morning line odds.
Thus far, it appears to be Justify with a field of closers and little early speed which bodes well for those of us who will be there hoping to see the 13th Triple Crown champion.
Looking at Brisnet Past Performances for this Belmont Stakes field (CLICK HERE), Justify has Prime Power rating of 161.0 that is more than 10 over the next colt in this field (146.1 – Vino Rosso). Historically, this equates to a 55% win percentage for Justify in this race.
When looking at the past 25 years of Belmont Stakes winners, 17 of 25 raced in the Kentucky Derby. Only 7 colts who won the Belmont Stakes were new shooters (those making their first appearance in a Triple Crown race). Only 1 of the winners came out of the Preakness Stakes that didn’t also race in the Kentucky Derby.
My best guess, the only horse in this field that can beat Justify in this field is Vino Rosso. If you are trying to beat Justify, he’s your horse. Well rested, he will have 35 days layoff between races. Trained by Todd Pletcher who is one of the best at training colts for the Mile and a Half. Justify’s worst Beyer Speed Figure is 97. Vino Rosso is the only colt in this potential field who had eclipsed that figure.
2018 Belmont Stakes Potential Entries
1) Justify (4/5) – The 2018 Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes winner. He will attempt to become the 13th Triple Crown champion.
Career: 5 Starts 5-0-0-0Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 3 Last 3 starts: 1st–>1st–>1st Sire: Scat Daddy Trainer: Bob Baffert (2001 & 2015 Belmont Stakes Winning Trainer) Jockey: Mike Smith (2010 & 2013 Belmont Stakes Winner) Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 107 – 2018 Santa Anita Derby
2) Bravazo(4/1) – The Risen Star Stakes winner had the best run of his career in the Preakness Stakes, finishing 2nd behind Justify by a half length. Trained by four time Belmont Stakes winner D. Wayne Lukas. Bravazo will be the 2nd favorite with bettors on Belmont Stakes day. He was coming like a runaway freight train in that last furlong in the Preakness Stakes and made the race interesting.
Career: 10 Starts 3-2-1-0 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 0 Last 3 starts: 8th–>6th–>2nd Sire: Awesome Again Trainer: D.Wayne Lukas (1994, 1995, 1996 & 2000 Belmont Stakes.Winning Trainer) Jockey: Luis Saez Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 96 – 2018 Preakness Stakes
3) Hofburg (6/1) – After a 2nd place finish in the Florida Derby (shown below), Hofburg followed up this effort with a 7th place finish in the Kentucky Derby. He has a former Belmont Stakes winning trainer and jockey in his corner.
Career: 4 Starts 1-1-0-1Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 0 Last 3 starts: 1st–>2nd–>7th Sire: Tapit Trainer: William Mott (2010 Belmont Stakes Winning Trainer) Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr (2016 Belmont Stakes Winner) Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 94 – 2018 Florida Derby
4) Vino Rosso(8/1) The Wood Memorial winner. He finished 9th in the Kentucky Derby. He has a proven Belmont Stakes winning trainer and jockey behind him.
Career: 6 Starts 3-0-1-1Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 0 Last 3 starts: 4th–>1st–>9th Sire: Curlin(Finished 2nd in the 2007 Belmont Stakes) Trainer: Todd Pletcher (2007, 2013 & 2017 Belmont Stakes Winning Trainer) Jockey: John Velasquez (2007 and 2012 Belmont Stakes Winner) Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 98 – 2018 Wood Memorial
5) Tenfold (10/1) – The Steve Asmussen-trained colt finished 5th in the Arkansas Derby and had a surprising 3rd place finish in the Preakness Stakes.
Career: 4 Starts 2-0-1-0Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 0 Last 3 starts: 1st–>5th–>3rd Sire: Curlin(Finished 2nd in the 2007 Belmont Stakes) Trainer: Steve Asmussen (2016 Belmont Stakes Winning Trainer) Jockey: Ricardo Santana Jr. Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 95 – 2018 Preakness Stakes
6) Noble Indy (15/1) – The surprise winner of the 2018 Louisiana Derby winner. He bombed in the sloppy Kentucky Derby with a 17th place finish. Trained by Todd Pletcher who is one of the best at preparing 3-year-old colts for the mile and a half.
Career: 5 Starts 3-0-1-0Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 0 Last 3 starts: 3rd–>1st–>17th Sire: Take Charge Indy Trainer: Todd Pletcher (2007, 2013 & 2017 Belmont Stakes Winning Trainer) Jockey: Florent Geroux Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 95 – 2018 Louisiana Derby
7) Blended Citizen(20/1) – The Peter Pan Stakes winner, so you know he likes Belmont Park’s track surface. He finished 5th in the Blue Grass Stakes.
Career: 10 Starts 3-0-2-0Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 0 Last 3 starts: 1st–>5th–>1st Sire: Proud Citizen (Finished 5th in the 2002 Belmont Stakes) Trainer: Doug O’Neill Jockey: Kyle Frey Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 90 – 2018 Peter Pan Stakes
8)Restoring Hope (30/1) – Finished 3rd in the Wood Memorial (shown below). He had a disappointing effort in the sloppy Pat Day Mile, finishing 12th.
Career: 5 Starts 1-1-2-0Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 0 Last 3 starts: 1st–>3rd–>12th Sire: Giant’s Causeway Trainer: Bob Baffert (2001 & 2015 Belmont Stakes Winning Trainer) Jockey: To Be Announced Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 90 -2018 Wood Memorial
9) Gronkowski(30/1) – A European runner who is named after New England Patriots Tight End Rob Gronkowski. He is now being trained by Chad Brown. Gronkowski has primarily raced on synthetic or turf surfaces and has never raced longer than a mile. So he appears to be a better fit for the Met Mile on Belmont Stakes day.
Career: 6 Starts 4-1-0-0Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 0 Last 3 starts: 1st–>1st-->1st Sire: Lonhro Trainer: Chad Brown Jockey: Jose Ortiz (2017 Belmont Stakes Winner) Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: N/A
10) Free Drop Billy(30/1) – The Dale Romans-trained Breeders’s Futurity winner. He had a disappointing 16th place finish in the Kentucky Derby. He is a confirmed entry in the Belmont Stakes today (May 29th).
Career: 9 Starts 2-3-2-0Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 1 Last 3 starts: 3rd–>3rd–>16th Sire: Union Rags(Finished 1st in the 2012 Belmont Stakes) Trainer: Dale Romans Jockey: Robby Albarado Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 90 – 2018 Holy Bull Stakes
11) Bandua(30/1) – A rumored entry and another European turf runner who is a grandson of 1977 Belmont Stakes winner Seattle Slew on his dam’s side. He is undefeated in two starts and has raced at 1 1/4th mile distance. He is also being pegged for the Group 1 Dubai Duty Free Irish Stakes race on June 30th at Curragh Racecourse. My guess is that won’t be entered in the Belmont Stakes and will instead focus on the Irish Stakes.
Career: 2 Starts 2-0-0-0Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 0 Last 2 starts: 1st->1st Sire: The Factor Trainer: Dermont Weld Jockey: To Be Announced Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: N/A
On the docket…
I am working on an article for US Racing on why Justify will become the 13th Triple Crown champion.
As many expected, it was announced today that the Florida Derby winner Audible will not run in the Belmont Stakes. Audible has the same ownership group (WinStar Farm/China Horse Club) as Justify.
So far, it appears that Justify’s competition for the Belmont Stakes will be:
Bravazo (Luis Saez/D. Wayne Lukas) – Preakness Stakes Runner-Up Vino Rosso (John Velazquez/Todd Pletcher) – 9th place finisher in the Kentucky Derby Noble Indy (Florent Geroux/Todd Pletcher) – 17th place finisher in Kentucky Derby Tenfold (Ricardo Santana Jr/Steve Asmussen) – 3rd place finisher in Preakness Stakes Blended Citizen (Kyle Frey/Doug O’Neill) – Peter Pan Stakes Winner Hofburg (Irad Ortiz Jr/Bill Mott) – 7th place finisher in the Kentucky Derby Gronkowski (?/Chad Brown) – Burradon Stakes Winner
Free Drop Billy (Robbie Albarado/Dale Romans) – 16th place finisher in Kentucky Derby
Restoring Hope (Flavien Prat?/Bob Baffert) – 12th place finisher in Peter Pan Stakes
Bandua (?/Dermont Weld) – UK turf horse
Below are the entries, post-positions, jockey assignments and morning line odds for the 144th running of the Kentucky Derby. The race will be aired live on NBC this coming Saturday around 5:45 PM CST.
As I have said in previous blogs, I think this is going to be one of the most exciting Derby’s we have seen in a long while.
2018 Kentucky Derby Starting Field
1) Firenze Fire (50/1) – The Jerome Stakes winner (shown below). His career best Beyer Speed Figure of 90 was accomplished as a 2-year-old in the Champagne Stakes. He will be one of the longershots in the field but has a very underrated jockey in Paco Lopez.
Career: 9 Starts 4-1-0-3Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 1 Last 3 starts: 2nd–>4th->4th Sire: Poseiden’s Warrior Trainer: Jason Servis (2004 Kentucky Derby Winning Trainer) Jockey: Paco Lopez Fastest 1 1/8th Mile Time: 1:51.59 (estimated) – 2018 Wood Memorial Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 90 – 2017 Champagne Stakes
2) Free Drop Billy(30/1) – The Dale Romans-trained Breeders’s Futurity winner. He had a disappointing 9th place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile race. He has been consistent but unspectacular since. Not a huge threat to win in this field.
Career: 8 Starts 2-3-2-0Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 1 Last 3 starts: 2nd–>3rd–>3rd Sire: Union Rags(Finished 7th in the 2012 Kentucky Derby) Trainer: Dale Romans Jockey: Robby Albarado Fastest 1 1/8th Mile Time: 1:50.70 (estimated) – 2018 Blue Grass Stakes Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 90 – 2018 Holy Bull Stakes
3) Promises Fulfilled(30/1) – The Fountain of Youth Stakes winner led 6 furlongs in the Florida Derby but faded down the stretch with a 9th place finish. Not a good sign when you are jumping up from 9 furlongs to 10.
Career: 5 Starts 3-0-1-0Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 0 Last 3 starts: 3rd–>1st–>9th Sire: Shackleford (Finished 4th in the 2011 Kentucky Derby) Trainer: Dale Romans Jockey: Corie Lanerie Fastest 1 1/8th Mile Time: 1:55.12 (estimated) – 2018 Florida Derby Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 96 – 2018 Fountain of Youth Stakes
4) Flameaway(30/1) – The Sam F. Davis winner at Tampa Bay Downs. He finished 2nd in the Blue Grass Stakes (shown below).
Career: 9 Starts 5-2-0-0 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 0 Last 3 starts: 1st–>2nd—>2nd Sire: Scat Daddy Trainer: Mark Casse Jockey: Jose Lezcano Fastest 1 1/8th Mile Time: 1:50.42 (estimated) – 2018 Blue Grass Stakes Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 93 – 2018 Blue Grass Stakes
5)Audible(8/1) – Last year, the Florida Derby winner who was trained by Todd Pletcher–Always Dreaming–went on to win the Kentucky Derby. Can lightning strike twice? Apparently last year’s Always Dreaming rider doesn’t think so as John Velazquez has chosen to ride Vino Rosso on Derby Day.
Career: 5 Starts 4-0-1-0Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 1 Last 3 starts: 1st–->1st–>1st Sire: Into Mischief Trainer: Todd Pletcher (2010 & 2017 Kentucky Derby Winning Trainer) Jockey: Javier Castellano Fastest 1 1/8th Mile Time: 1:49.48 – 2018 Florida Derby Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 99 – 2018 Florida Derby
6) Good Magic (12/1) – The 2017 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner and the Eclipse 2-year-old Male Champion. He had a somewhat disappointing 3rd place finish in the 2018 Fountain of Youth Stakes but bounced back to win the Blue Grass Stakes.
Career: 5 Starts 2-2-1-0Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 1 Last 3 starts: 1st–>3rd–>1st Sire: Curlin(Finished 3rd in 2007 Kentucky Derby) Trainer: Chad Brown Jockey: Jose Ortiz Fastest 1 1/8th Mile Time: 1:50.18 – 2018 Blue Grass Stakes Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 100 – 2017 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile
7) Justify (3/1) – The race favorite. He is fast but inexperienced. However, he has 100+ Beyer Speed Figures in all three career starts. He’ll be up against the Curse of Apollo. But if had to pick a trainer-jockey combo to break the Curse, it would be Baffert-Smith.
Career: 3 Starts 3-0-0-0Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 1 Last 3 starts: 1st–>1st–>1st Sire: Scat Daddy Trainer: Bob Baffert (1997,1998, 2003, & 2015 Kentucky Derby Winning Trainer) Jockey: Mike Smith (2005 Kentucky Derby Winner) Fastest 1 1/8th Mile Time: 1:49.72 – 2018 Santa Anita Derby Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 107 – 2018 Santa Anita Derby
8) Lone Sailor (50/1) – The Tom Amoss-trained colt is a deep closer who briefly took the lead in the Lousiana Derby only to lose by a neck to Noble Indy (shown below). I question whether he really wants the 10 furlong distance.
Career: 8 Starts 1-3-1-0 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 0 Last 3 starts: 9th–>2nd–>2nd Sire: Majestic Warrior Trainer: Tom Amoss Jockey: James Graham Fastest 1 1/8th Mile Time: 1:50.32 (estimated) – 2018 Louisiana Derby Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 95 – 2018 Louisiana Derby
9) Hofburg (20/1) – A second place finisher in the Florida Derby. He’s talented but very inexperienced with only 3 career starts under his belt. However, he should like the added distance as a son of Tapit.
Career: 3 Starts 1-1-0-1Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 0 Last 3 starts: 4th–>1st–>2nd Sire: Tapit(Finished 9th in the 2004 Kentucky Derby) Trainer: William Mott Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr Fastest 1 1/8th Mile Time: 1:49.96 (estimated) – 2018 Florida Derby Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 94 – 2018 Florida Derby
10) My Boy Jack(30/1) – While he is not a huge threat to win on a dry, fast track in this field, he certainly has a chance and his chances improve exponentially on a wet track. I wrote an article on his chances in the Kentucky Derby for US Racing which can be accessed HERE. And for movie buffs, no he is not named after Jack Kipling who the “My Boy Jack” movie is based on. Great movie though.
Career: 10 Starts 3-3-2-0Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 0 Last 3 starts: 1st–>3rd–>1st Sire: Creative Cause(Finished 5th in the 2012 Kentucky Derby) Trainer: Keith Desormeaux Jockey: Kent Desormeaux (1998, 2000 & 2008 Kentucky Derby Winner) Fastest 1 1/8th Mile Time: 1:50.40 (estimated) – 2018 Louisiana Derby Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 94 – 2018 Louisiana Derby
11) Bolt d’Oro (8/1) – Much like Classic Empire was last year, a star as a 2-year-old who hasn’t seemed to take it to the level we expected as a 3-year-old. He’s has an excellent pedigree and I generally feel we have yet to see him run his best race. He’ll have two-time Kentucky Derby winner Victor Espinoza as his jockey.
Career: 6 Starts 4-1-1-0Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 2 Last 3 starts: 3rd–>1st–>2nd Sire: Medaglia d’Oro (Finished 4th in 2002 Kentucky Derby) Trainer: Mark Ruis Jockey: Victor Espinoza (2014 & 2015 Kentucky Derby Winner) Fastest 1 1/8th Mile Time: 1:50.20 (estimated) – 2018 Santa Anita Derby Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 103 – 2017 FrontRunner Stakes
12) Enticed (30/1) – The other son of Medaglia d’Oro in the field. He won the Gotham Stakes and then finished 2nd in the Wood Memorial behind Vino Rosso.
Career: 6 Starts 3-1-1-1 Last 3 starts: 4th–>1st–>2nd Sire: Medaglia d’Oro (Finished 4th in 2002 Kentucky Derby) Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin Jockey: Junior Alvarado Fastest 1 1/8th Mile Time: 1:50.27 (estimated) 2018 Wood Memorial Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 95 – 2018 Gotham Stakes
13) Bravazo(50/1) – After opening up his 3-year-old campaign with two wins, most notably the Risen Star Stakes, he had a disappointing 8th place finish in his final Derby prep at Fair Grounds in the Louisiana Derby.
Career: 8 Starts 3-1-1-0Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 0 Last 3 starts: 1st–>1st–>8th Sire: Awesome Again Trainer: D.Wayne Lukas (1988,1995,1996 & 1999 Kentucky Derby Winning Trainer) Jockey: Luis Contreras Fastest 1 1/8th Mile Time: 1:53.68 (estimated) – 2018 Louisiana Derby Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 93 – 2018 Risen Star Stakes
14) Mendelssohn (5/1) – The 2018UAE Derby winner. UAE Derby winners haven’t fared all that well in the Kentucky Derby but Mendelssohn should be viewed as a serious contender setting a UAE Derby track record and winning by 18 1/2 lengths.
Career: 7 Starts 4-1-0-0Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 2 Last 3 starts: 1st–>1st–>1st Sire: Scat Daddy Trainer: Aidan O’Bryan Jockey: Ryan Moore Fastest 1 1/8th Mile Time: N/A Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 106 – 2018 UAE Derby
15)Instilled Regard (50/1) – A consistent colt. In seven career starts, he has never finished out of the Superfecta.
Career: 7 Starts 2-2-1-2Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 0 Last 3 starts: 1st–>4th->4th Sire: Arch Trainer: Jerry Hollendorfer Jockey: Drayden Van Dyke Fastest 1 1/8th Mile Time: 1:51.24 (estimated) – 2018 Santa Anita Derby Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 92 – 2018 Lecomte Stakes
16) Magnum Moon (6/1) – The 2018 Rebel Stakes and Arkansas Derby winner. His final 3 furlong time in the Arkansas Derby is the fastest in the class. Like Justify, he will be vying to break the Curse of Apollo.
17) Solomini(30/1) – The Bob Baffert-trainee was yet to win since his first start as a 2-year-old. However, noteworthy that he finished 2nd in the 2017 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile race behind Good Magic (shown below). His 3-year-old campaign has been a bit disappointing with a 2nd place finish in the Rebel Stakes and a 3rd place finish in the Arkansas Derby. And he draws post-position #17, a post that no colt has ever won the Derby from.
Career: 6 Starts 1-3-2-0Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 0 Last 3 starts: 3rd–>2nd–>3rd Sire: Curlin(Finished 3rd in 2007 Kentucky Derby) Trainer: Bob Baffert (1997,1998, 2003, & 2015 Kentucky Derby Winning Trainer) Jockey: Flavien Prat Fastest 1 1/8th Mile Time: 1:50.54 (estimated) 2018 Arkansas Derby Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 93 – 2017 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile
18)Vino Rosso(12/1) –His name in Italian means “Red Wine”and he’s moving up my board.The Wood Memorial winner will get last year’s Derby winning jockey John Velazquez. His reasoning? He thinks he has more potential than Audible at getting the distance (SEE). I was a bit surprised Churchill Downs handicapper gave him 12/1 morning line odds. I think he will be well south of that number on Derby Day. So many love Italian red wine.
Career: 5 Starts 3-0-1-1Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 0 Last 3 starts: 3rd–>4th–>1st Sire: Curlin(Finished 3rd in 2007 Kentucky Derby) Trainer: Todd Pletcher (2010 & 2017 Kentucky Derby Winning Trainer) Jockey: John Velazquez (2011 & 2017 Kentucky Derby Winner) Fastest 1 1/8th Mile Time: 1:49.79 – 2018 Wood Memorial Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 98 – 2018 Wood Memorial
19)Noble Indy (30/1) – The surprise winner of the 2018 Louisiana Derby winner and yet another Derby horse trained by Todd Pletcher. Noble Indy is an above average colt in this field, but I don’t feel that he has the speed of the other Pletcher trainees.
20) Combatant (50/1) – The lone Steve Asmussen Derby entry. Combatant is yet another son of Scat Daddy in this field. He’s a quality horse but not a serious threat to win in this very talented field. He’s only win came in a Maiden Special Weight race as a 2-year-old at Churchill Downs. He’s a deep closer who you might consider in your superfectas
Career: 7 Starts 1-3-1-2 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 0 Last 3 starts: 2nd–>3rd–>4th Sire: Scat Daddy Trainer: Steve Asmussen Jockey: Ricardo Santana Jr. Fastest 1 1/8th Mile Time: 1:50.56 (estimated) 2018 Arkansas Derby Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 94 – 2018 Smarty Jones Stakes
Note: In a rush to get this out early as possible, I caught and already corrected a few minor errors and typos. If you see any more, let me know.
On the docket…
My next blog will provide handicapping advice for the Derby. I should have this out by Thursday evening.
It is kind of hard to believe but the first of the final major Kentucky Derby prep races are among us with the Louisiana Derby scheduled for this Saturday. With 170 Derby points up for grabs, the 1st and 2nd place finishers are virtually guaranteed a spot in the Kentucky Derby field.
Although run since 1894, the Louisiana Derby doesn’t have a sterling record of producing Kentucky Derby winners. Only two Louisiana Derby winners have gone on to win the in the Kentucky Derby: Black Gold (1924) and Grindstone (1996). However, 2016 Louisiana Derby winner, Gun Runner, finished 3rd in the 2016 Kentucky Derby and had a wonderful career, retiring as the 2nd all-time leading money earner in North American racing behind Arrogate.
Below are the entries, post-positions, jockey assignments and morning line odds for the 105th Louisiana Derby.
Race Commentary: Overall, I like the talent in this field. The D. Wayne Lukas-trained Bravaso draws the rail, the same post position he used to edge out Snapper Sinclair by a nose in the Risen Star Stakes with a nice time of 1:42.95. The Desormeaux brothers have entered the Southwest Stakes winner My Boy Jack. The Todd Pletcher-trained Noble Indy is entered. Noble Indy finished 3rd in the Risen Star Stakes. From Steve Asmussen’s barn: Snapper Sinclair and Retirement Fund.
My Boy Jack is a closer so I foresee this race coming down to Bravaso trying to hold off a late charging My Boy Jack. It this race is a dry race, I like Bravaso. If run in wet conditions, I like My Boy Jack who proved that he liked the slop in the Southwest Stakes.
On the Docket…
My next blog will preview the 2018 Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park scheduled for Saturday March 31st.
Opening up today is Pool #2 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wagers. The pool is open from Friday February 9th at Noon EST until Sunday February 11th at 6 PM EST. Below are Morning Line Odds along with each horse’s highest Brisnet Speed Figure. Horses with an asterisk are newcomers that were not in Pool #1. Horses in bold font are colts who I had in my Top 25 Kentucky Derby contender watch list.
Colts who were in my Top 25 watch list that didn’t make this Future Wager pool are (with the highest Brisnet Speed Figure): Dak Attack (94), Marconi (94), Paved, Noble Indy (97), Vino Rosso (90) and World of Trouble (101).
The problem with this pool is that there are a few really great colts who have yet to race this year. So it is hard to extrapolate how they might have improved vs some of the most recent new stars like Audible and Mourinho.
Please note that Catholic Boy is entered into tomorrow’s Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs. So you may want to wait and see how her performs in that race before putting any money down on him. I had originally hoped to preview that race but I have been battling Bronchitis. I’m sure many can relate because its been a very bad cold and flu season this year. However, looking over that field, Catholic Boy is the deserved 8/5 morning line favorite and would be my choice to win over Vino Rosso and Hollywood Star.
2018 Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool #2
Audible* 12-1 – 105
Avery Island 20-1 – 94
Bolt d’Oro 10-1 – 105
Catholic Boy* 20-1 – 98
Combatant* 50-1 – 95
Copper Bullet 50-1 – 94 —-> The best longshot in this pool
Enticed 30-1 – 93
Firenze Fire 30-1 – 96
Free Drop Billy 20-1 – 99
Good Magic 10-1 – 105
Instilled Regard* 30-1 – 100
Mask 12-1 – 100
McKinzie 8-1 – 104
Mendelssohn 30-1 – 91 —-> Better Beware: Turf Horse
Montauk 20-1 – 88
Mourinho* 12-1 – 99
Principe Guilherme 30-1 – 92
Retirement Fund* 30-1 – 94
Solomini 20-1 – 101
Sporting Chance 50-1 – 98 —-> Another longshot worthy of consideration
Strike Power* 20-1 – 103
Tiz Mischief 30-1 – 93
Untamed Domain 30-1 – 89
Mutuel Field/All Others 7/2
My Top Five Kentucky Derby Contenders
Below are detailed profiles on my Top 5 Kentucky Derby contenders:
1) Bolt d’Oro – Although he won two Grade 1 races and produced the highest Beyer Speed Figure of any 2-year-colt last year, he lost the Eclipse Award for 2 Year Old Male Champion to Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner Good Magic. I was a little surprised by this. He is the paternal half brother to Songbird and Rachel Alexandra out of an A.P. Indy mare so I love the pedigree. He picks up four time Eclipse Jockey of the Year Javier Castellano as his rider. His Next Start: The 2018 San Felipe at Santa Anita Park on March 10th.
Career: 4 Starts 3-0-1-0 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 2 Last 3 starts: 1st–>1st–>3rd Sire: Medaglia d’Oro (Finished 4th in 2002 Kentucky Derby) Trainer: Mick Ruis Jockey: Javier Castellano Best 1 1/16th Mile Time: 1:43.54 – 2017 FrontRunner Stakes Closing Speed Estimate: 35.62 mph Career Best Speed Figures: 103 Beyer, 105 Brisnet, 109 Equibase
2) McKinzie – He is the Top 3 year-old in Bob Baffert’s barn thus far. He is undefeated in three starts. He has plenty of winners behind him. His sire (Street Sense), trainer (Bob Baffert) and jockey (Mike Smith) are all former Kentucky Derby winners. His Next Start: Like Bolt d’Oro, it appears to be the 2018 San Felipe at Santa Anita Park on March 10th. Oh what a race that will be. Mark your calendars.
Career: 3 Starts 3-0-0-0 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 1 Last 3 starts: 1st–>1st–>1st Sire: Street Sense (2007 Kentucky Derby Winner) Trainer: Bob Baffert (1997, 1998, 2002, 2015 Kentucky Derby winning trainer) Jockey: Mike Smith (2005 Kentucky Derby Winner) Best 1 1/16th Mile Time: 1:42.69 (estimated) – 2017 Los Alamitos Futurity Closing Speed Estimate: 36.99 mph Career Best Speed Figures: 99 Beyer, 104 Brisnet, 110 Equibase
3)Good Magic – The 2018 Eclipse Award 2 Year Old Male Champion and 2017 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Champion. He is also trained by the 2018 Eclipse Award winning trainer Chad Brown. His Next Start: The Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park on March 3rd.
Career: 3 Starts 1-2-0-0 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 1 Last 3 starts: 2nd–>2nd–>1st Sire: Curlin (Finished 3rd in the 2007 Kentucky Derby) Trainer: Chad Brown Jockey: Jose Ortiz Best 1 1/16th Mile Time: 1:43.34 – 2017 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Closing Speed Estimate: 36.31 mph Career Best Speed Figures: 100 Beyer, 105 Brisnet, 109 Equibase
4) Audible – The 2018 Holy Bull Stakes winner and probably the early Florida Derby favorite. The only question mark is his pedigree and whether he will like the 10 furlong distance. His sire Into Mischief never raced further than 8 1/2 furlongs. His Next Start: The Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park on March 31st.
Career: 4 Starts 3-0-1-0 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 0 Last 3 starts: 1st–>1st–>1st Sire: Into Mischief Trainer: Todd Pletcher (2010 and 2017 Kentucky Derby Winning Trainer) Jockey: Javier Castellano Best 1 1/16th Mile Time: 1:42.92 – 2018 Holy Bull Stakes Closing Speed Estimate: 37.60 mph Career Best Speed Figures: 99 Beyer, 105 Brisnet, 99 Equibase
5)Mourinho – The recent Smarty Jones Stakes winner. Remember last year when Bob Baffert didn’t have a 3 year-old that qualified for the Kentucky Derby? It’s not happening this year, his barn is loaded. Mourinho is Baffert’s next best Derby contender based upon performance thus far. His Next Start: The Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park on February 19th.
Career: 4 Starts 2-2-0-0 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 0 Last 3 starts: 2nd–>2nd–>1st Sire: Super Saver (2010 Kentucky Derby Winner) Trainer: Bob Baffert (1997, 1998, 2002, 2015 Kentucky Derby winning trainer) Jockey: Drayden Van Dyke Best 1 1/16th Mile Time: N/A Closing Speed Estimate: 36.03 mph Career Best Speed Figures: 99 Beyer, 99 Brisnet, 107 Equibase
On the Docket…
My next blog will preview the 2018 Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn scheduled for Monday February 19th.
Mike's Derby Picks 