The Santa Anita Derby, Blue Grass Stakes & Wood Memorial

Today is another important day on the Kentucky Derby Trail with three key point paying races in the Santa Anita Derby, Blue Grass Stakes and Wood Memorial Derby at Aqueduct. Dortmund highlights the Santa Anita Derby while Carpe Diem highlights the Blue Grass Stakes. Overall, all of these races have somewhat disappointing fields in terms of  depth and quality. The Santa Anita has six entries, the Wood Memorial has seven and the Blue Grass Stakes has eight. All three races are 1 1/8th mile races that pay out 100 points to the winner.

1) The Wood Memorial  Race #10 at Aqueduct- Post Time 4:30 PM CST 

This race has less starpower but should be an interesting battle between Frosted and El Kabeir. Daredevil is also entered but he is more of a sprinter. El Kabeir has distance limitations. I would place a $1 straight trifecta 4-5-6 (Frosted, El Kabeir and Daredevil) and $100 Show bet on Frosted (horse #4)

2) The Blue Grass Stakes Race #10 at Keeneland – Post Time 5:00 PM CST

I feel less confident about this race. Carpe Diem is the 1/1 Morning Line favorite but has Ocho Ocho Ocho is on the inside with 6/1 Morning Line Odds. I would place a $50 Place bet on Carpe Diem (horse #5).

3) The Santa Anita Derby Race #8 at Santa Anita Park – Post Time 5:38 PM CST

Dortmund is the 3/5 Morning Line favorite and my pick to win. You would have to shell out big money to get a decent payback just like his last three races. I would probably bet $150 on Dortmund to win and a $20 boxed 1-5 exacta (Dortmund, Prospect Park).

–Michael

Dortmund highlights Another Big Derby Trail Weekend

Tomorrow, March 7th, there are three important races on the Kentucky Derby Trail that will feature 10 of the 23 horses listed in the Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool #3. I have bold fonted these horses in the text below. Also the Swale Stakes at Gulfstream Park will feature the Bob Baffert-trained Daredevil who is coming off a long layoff but this race is non-points paying. For the 4 year-old race fans,  Shared Belief highlights the Santa Anita Handicap and the San Carlos Stakes features the Bob Baffert sprinter Chitu.

1) Swale Stakes – 7 furlongs at Gulfstream Park. Race #6 2 PM CST: Here are the key horses with their Morning Line odds: Daredevil 4/5, X Y Jet 4/1, Ready for Rye 9/2 and Bluegrass Singer 8/1. I think Daredevil is going to wire this field. I would plunk down a $20 Place bet on Daredevil (horse #1) just in case he is rusty coming off a long layoff.

2) Gotham Stakes – 1 1/16th Mile at Aqueduct. Race #9 at 3:50 PM CST: The two morning line favorites are El Kabeir 8/5 and Classy Class 7/2. Todd Pletcher has three horses with 5/1 Odds: Blame Jim, Dontbetwithbruno and Uninfluenced. Blame Jim is probably the best out of these three. The Chad Brown-trained horse Lieutenant Colonel is also 5/1 odds and is coming off a maiden win at Gulfstream Park in February.

Overall, I don’t feel good about betting on this race, too many fresh faces from the Pletcher barn. If I bet anything it would be a Show Bet on El Kabeir. If the Daredevil place bet wins in the Swale, take all the earnings from that race and put it on El Kabeir (horse #4) to Show.

3) Tampa Bay Derby – 1 1/16 Mile at Tampa Bay Downs. Race #11 at 4:23 PM CST: The two key horses in this race with the ML odds are: Carpe Diem 8/5, Ocean Knight 2/1. Danzig Moon starts on the outside post and is 12/1 odds. I like a $10 Boxed Exacta (2-3) on Carpe Diem and Ocean Knight.

4) San Felipe Stakes – 1 1/16th Mile at Santa Anita Park. Race #7 at 4:57 PM CST: This race features five horses who were listed in the Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool #3. These horses with their ML Odds are: Dortmund 8/5, Ocho Ocho Ocho 4/1, Lord Nelson 4/1, Prospect Park 4/1 and Bolo 6/1.

Overall, the only horse I feel that might be capable of beating Dortmund is Ocho Ocho Ocho. However, he is coming off a 105 day layoff so you never know if a horse like this will have improved by leaps and bounds or be rusty. Interesting to note, both Dortmund and Ocho Ocho Ocho are undefeated. Prospect Park is another fast horse with Kent Desormeaux as his rider. This will be Dortmund’s biggest test to date. I like Dortmund again and I would place $50 on him (horse #3) to win. I would also consider placing a $10 Boxed Exacta 3-6 (Dortmund and Prospect Park).

5) San Carlos Stakes – 7 Furlongs at Santa Anita Park. Race #9 at 6:07 PM CST: Chitu (2/1) will battle Conquest Two Step (5/2) and WIld Dude (3/1) and Bob Baffert’s other entry Midnight Hawk (6/1). I think Chitu will wire this field.. So I would place a $20 Win bet on Chitu (horse #1).

6) Santa Anita Handicap – 1 1/4th Mile at Santa Anita Park for 4 Year-Olds & Upwards. Race #11 at 7:17 PM CST: Shared Belief is listed a 3/5 ML Odds and his main competition will come from Moreno who is 6/1 ML Odds. I feel real good about this one and I generally don’t like betting on 4 year-olds. However, I would place a $50 win bet on Shared Belief (horse #5) and I would place it every time so long as Bayern or California Chrome aren’t competing against him. It will probably only pay you back $60 but this is as sure of a 20% ROI you will find this year. If California Chrome couldn’t beat Share Belief back in January, I don’t expect any horse in this field to beat him either.

–Michael

Eight Great Horses To Consider For Your Kentucky Derby Future Wagers Pool #3

With the Kentucky Future Wagers Pool #3 coming up February 27th, below are eight horses to consider for your future wager. But first, what does a Kentucky Derby winner usually look like on paper?

Profiling the Kentucky Derby Winner

The profile of a typical Kentucky Derby winner is that 75.7% are Kentucky bred. California Chrome was the exception and not the norm last year being a California bred horse. California has produced only four Kentucky Derby winners with the last (before California Chrome) being Decidedly who won in 1962.  Florida is the next best state at producing Kentucky Derby winners with six.

Another stat to consider is that the roughly 70% of Kentucky Derby winners won their first race in their first or second start–which California Chrome accomplished. As long as a horse wins in his first four starts and gets hot in February and March, I am fine with it. Also, probably a more important stat, thirteen out of the last fifteen Kentucky Derby winners broke their maiden by December 1st of their 2-year-old campaign. All the horses in my top seven won their first race by December 1st except for Far From Over who won on December 12th.

Note: blue bold fonts are linked to race videos or Equibase references

1) Dortmund (Kentucky Bred- Won in 1st start) – Derby Points: 20
Sire: Big Brown – 2008 Kentucky Derby & Preakness Stakes Winner

Kentucky Derby Future Wager Final Odds: Pool #1: 9-1, Pool #2: 10-1
Current Morning Line Odds: 8-1

4 Starts, 4 Wins, Win Pct: 100%, Graded Stakes Win Pct: 100%
Last Three Starts: 1st (97 Beyer), 1st (91 Beyer), 1st (103 Beyer)
Average Beyer Speed Figure of Last Two Starts:  97
Fastest 1 1/16 Mile Time-: 1:40.86 at Los Alamitos 12/20/14
Next Race: San Felipe Stakes – March 7th or Santa Anita Derby – April 4th
Dortmund’s Equibase Profile

2) Texas Red  (Kentucky Bred – Won in 3rd start) – Derby Points: 12
Sire: Afleet Alex – 2005 Preakness Stakes & Belmont Stakes Winner

Kentucky Derby Future Wager Final Odds: Pool #1: 14-1, Pool #2: 9-1
Current Morning Line Odds: 12-1

6 Starts, 2 Wins, Win Pct: 33%, Graded Stakes Win Pct: 33%
Last Three Starts:  3rd (93 Beyer), 1st (104 Beyer), 2nd (90 Beyer)
Average Beyer Speed Figure of Last Two Starts: 97
Fastest 1 1/16th Mile Time: 1:41.91 at Santa Anita Park 11/1/14
Next Race: Santa Anita Derby – April 4th or Arkansas Derby – April 11th
Texas Red’s Equibase Profile

3) American Pharoah (Kentucky Bred – Won in 2nd start) – Derby Points: 10
Sire: Pioneerof the Nile – Finished 2nd in 2009 Kentucky Derby

Kentucky Derby Future Wager Final Odds: Pool #1: 12-1, Pool #2: 10-1
Current Morning Line Odds: 8-1

3 Starts, 2 Wins, Win Pct: 67%, Graded Stakes Win Pct: 100%
Last Three Starts: 5th, 1st (101 Beyer), 1st (101 Beyer)
Average Beyer Speed Figure of Last Two Starts: 101
Fastest 1 1/16th Mile Time: 1:41.95 at Santa Anita Park 9/27/14
Next Race: Rebel Stakes – March 14th
American Pharoah’s Equibase Profile

4) Upstart (New York Bred – Won in 1st start) – Derby Points: 36
Sire: Flatter whose sire was A.P. Indy – 1992 Belmont Stakes & Breeders’ Cup Classic

Kentucky Derby Future Wager Final Odds: Pool #1: 53-1, Pool #2: 12-1
Current Morning Line Odds: 15-1

6 Starts, 3 Wins, Win Pct: 50%, Graded Stakes Win Pct: 25%
Last Three Starts: 3rd (93 Beyer), 1st (105 Beyer), 2nd–DQ from 1st (95 Beyer)
Average Beyer Speed Figure of Last Two Starts: 100
Fastest 1 1/16th Mile Time: 1:42.96 (calculated) at Santa Anita Park 11/1/14
Next Race: Florida Derby – March 28th
Upstart’s Equibase Profile

5) Carpe Diem (Kentucky Bred – Won in 1st start) – Derby Points: 14
Sire: Giant’s Causeway – Finished 2nd in the 2000 Breeders’ Cup Classic

Kentucky Derby Future Wager Final Odds: Pool #1: 15-1, Pool #2: 12-1
Current Morning Line Odds: 12-1

3 Starts, 2 Wins, Win Pct: 67%, Graded Stakes Win Pct: 50%
Last Three Starts: 1st, 1st (91 Beyer), 2nd (93 Beyer)
Average Beyer Speed Figure of Last Two Starts: 92
Fastest 1 1/16th Mile Time: 1:42.95 (calculated) at Santa Anita Park 11/1/14
Next Race: Tampa Bay Derby – March 7th
Carpe Diem’s Equibase Profile

6) Far From Over (Kentucky Bred – Won in 1st start) – Derby Points: 10
Sire: Blame – 2010 Breeders’ Cup Classic Winner

Kentucky Derby Future Wager Final Odds: Unlisted in both Pools
Current Morning Line Odds: 15-1

2 Starts, 2 Wins, Win Pct: 100%, Graded Stakes Win Pct: 100%
Last Three Starts: 1st (78 Beyer), 1st (96 Beyer)
Average Beyer Speed Figure of Last Two Starts: 82
Fastest 1 1/16th Mile Time: 1:43.93 at Aqueduct 2/7/15
Next Race: Gotham Stakes – March 7th
Far From Over’s Equibase Profile

7) International Star (New York Bred – Won in 1st Start) – Derby Points: 71
Sire: Fusaichi Pegasus – 2000 Kentucky Derby Winner

Kentucky Derby Future Wager Final Odds: Pool #1: Unlisted, Pool #2: 40-1
Current Morning Line Odds: 20-1

8 Starts, 4 Wins, Win Pct: 50%, Graded Stakes Win Pct: 50%
Last Three Starts: 4th, 1st (89 Beyer), 1st (93 Beyer)
Average Beyer Speed Figure of Last Two Starts: 91
Fastest 1 1/16th Mile Time: 1:43.82 at The Fairgrounds 2/21/15
Next Race: Louisiana Derby – March 28th
International Star’s Equibase Profile
 

8) Ocho Ocho Ocho (Kentucky Bred – Won in 1st Start) – Derby Points: 10
Sire: Street Sense – 2007 Kentucky Derby Winner

Kentucky Derby Future Wager Final Odds: Pool #1: 29-1, Pool #2: 26-1
Current Morning Line Odds: 20-1

3 Starts, 3 Wins, Win Pct: 100%, Graded Stakes Win Pct: 100%
Last Three Starts: 1st (80 Beyer), 1st (83 Beyer), 1st (90 Beyer)
Average Beyer Speed Figure of Last Two Starts: 86.5
Fastest 1 1/16th Mile Time: 1:45.47 at Delta Downs 11/22/14
Next Race: San Felipe Stakes – March 7th
Ocho Ocho Ocho’s Equibase Profile
 

Overall, I felt confident that the 2015 Kentucky Derby winner was listed in Pool #2, but I am 100% confident that he is in this pool. I would not recommend placing any bets on horses whose Morning Line Odds are greater than 30-1. This means do not waste your money on these 50-1 horses: Bolo, Danzig Moon, Keen Ice and Mr. Z.

Also, Khozan ended with 25-1 final odds in Pool #2 and he is coming off a win in his last start in a one mile race at Gulfstream. He is listed as 15-1 Morning Line Odds. Don’t buy into the hype. I felt that he was overbet in the last pool for what he had accomplished and I expect the same in this pool. I like horses who have proven that they can win in races longer than one mile (two-turns).

What am I going to do? I already placed a $20 bet on Texas Red in Pool #1 that will payout $302 if he wins. In this pool I am going to place $20 to $40 on Dortmund (horse #6) depending upon his live odds on Saturday morning. If only place $20 on Dortmund I will be looking for value and a price for any of the above horses.

Below is a ranking of the average Beyer Speed Figures of my top eight horses last two starts. Ties are broken by the higher speed in the last start.

Ranking By Average Beyer Speed Figures of Last Two Starts:
1) American Pharoah  101
2) Upstart  100
3) Dortmund  97
4) Texas Red  97
5) Carpe Diem  92
6) International Star  91
7) Ocho Ocho Ocho  86.5
8) Far From Over  82

You can follow the Future Wager Pool #3 Live Odds by clicking HERE.

You can see the full Kentucky Derby point standings by clicking HERE 


2015 Kentucky Oaks Future Wager Pool

For the Kentucky Oaks Future Wager Pool, I would recommend one filly only: Condo Commando. She has already won at the Oaks distance of 1 & 1/8th mile and she demolished that field in the Demoiselle Stakes winning by 11 1/2 lengths (shown below). She is listed as 8-1 Morning Line Odds and also coming off a win in the Busher Stakes. Take Charge Brandi was listed at 6-1 odds. She has a tremendous heart but I feel that Condo Commando is the more proven commodity at this point having won at 1 1/8th mile distance. So I am placing $20 on Condo Commando (horse #4) in  this Pool.


You can follow the live Kentucky Oaks Future Wager Pool Odds by clicking HERE

You can see the full Kentucky Oaks point standings by clicking HERE

The Six Best Performances On The 2015 Kentucky Derby Trail

Below is a ranking of the six best performances of this year’s Kentucky Derby contenders. My criteria uses wins in races longer than one mile (two turns) and then averaging three major speed figures (Beyer Speed, Brisnet Speed and Equibase Speed). All races were 1 & 1/16th mile.

1) Upstart – His win in the 2015 Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream Park on January 24, 2015.

Beyer Speed Figure: 105, Brisnet Speed Figure: 105, Equibase Speed Figure: 111
Three Speed Figure Average: 107


2) DortmundHis win in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes at Santa Anita Park on February 7, 2015.

Beyer Speed Figure: 103, Brisnet Speed Figure: 101, Equibase Speed Figure: 114
Three Speed Figure Average: 106


3) Texas Red – His win in the 2014 Breeders’ Cup Sentient Jet Juvenile at Santa Anita Park on November 1, 2014.

Beyer Speed Figure: 104, Brisnet Speed Figure: 101, Equibase Speed Figure: 106
Three Speed Figure Average: 103.67


4) American Pharoah – His win in the 2014 Frontrunner Stakes at Santa Anita Park on September 27, 2014.

Beyer Speed Figure: 101, Brisnet Speed Figure: 96, Equibase Speed Figure: 106
Three Speed Figure Average: 102


5) Far From Over – His win in the 2015 Withers Stakes at Aqueduct on February 7, 2015.

Beyer Speed Figure: 96, Brisnet Speed Figure: 96, Equibase Speed Figure: 103
Three Speed Figure Average: 98.33


6) Ocho Ocho Ocho – His win in the 2014 Delta Downs Jackpot Stakes at Delta Downs on November 22, 2014.

Beyer Speed Figure: 90, Brisnet Speed Figure: 101, Equibase Speed Figure: 104
Three Speed Figure Average: 98.33


–Michael