Shared Belief Horse

The Greatest American Thoroughbreds of the 21st Century

Posted on by Michael J. Cox

Below is my list of the greatest American Thoroughbreds of the 21st Century. I ranked the top two and the rest are listed in alphabetical order.

1. American Pharoah – The very first Grand Slam winner and only the 12th Triple Crown winner. American Pharoah would rank 3rd all-time on my greatest thoroughbred list behind Secretariat and Man O’War.

Career: 11 Starts 9-1-0-0, Win Pct: 81.8%, Top 3 Pct: 90.9%
Biggest Wins: 2015 Arkansas Derby, 2015 Kentucky Derby, 2015 Preakness Stakes, 2015 Belmont Stakes, 2015 Haskell Invitational, 2015 Breeders’ Cup Classic
Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 120
Awards: American Champion 2 Year Old Male, 12th Triple Crown Champion, 1st Grand Slam Champion
Career Earnings: $8,650,300

2. Zenyatta – The Queen of Thoroughbreds, she won 19 out of 20 races and won the 2009 Breeders’ Cup Classic against the boys. Her only loss was by a head to Blame in the 2010 Breeders’ Cup Classic. Zenyatta is definitely one of the Top 25 horses of all-time.

Career: 20 Starts 19-1-0-0. Win Pct: 95%, Top 3 Pct: 100%
Biggest Wins: 2008 Breeders’ Cup Ladies Classic, 2009 Breeders’ Cup Classic
Awards: American Champion Older Female Horse (2008, 2009, 2010), American Horse of the Year (2010)
Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 112
Career Earnings: $7,304,580

Here are ten more great horses of the 21st Century in alphabetical order:

California Chrome – The 2014 Horse of the Year, he will race in 2016 to see if he can add to his resume and legacy.

Career: 18 Starts 9-3-1-1, Win Pct: 50%, Top 3 Pct: 72.2%
Biggest Wins: 2014, Santa Anita Derby, 2014 Kentucky Derby, 2014 Preakness Stakes
Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 113
Awards: American Champion 3 Year Old Male (2014), American Horse of the Year (2014)
Career Earnings: $6,322,650

Curlin – A two-time Horse of the Year winner, he earned $10.5 Million dollars over his career–the most ever for a North American horse.

Career: 16 Starts 11-2-2-1, Win Pct: 68.8%, Top 3 Pct: 93.8%
Biggest Wins: 2007 Arkansas Derby, 2007 Preakness Stakes, 2007 & 2008 Jockey Club Gold Cup, 2007 Breeders’ Cup Classic, 2008 Stephen Foster Handicap, 2008 Dubai World Cup
Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 119
Awards: American Champion 3 Year Old Male (2007), American Horse of the Year (2007, 2008), World’s Top Ranked Horse (2008), National Museum of Racing Hall of Fame (2014)
Career Earnings: $10,501,800

Ghostzapper – One of the fastest horses of all-time. He recorded four Beyer Speed Figures that were 120 or greater. His career best Beyer of 128 is the fastest ever recorded in two-turn races. He still holds the track record for the Breeders’ Cup Classic at 1:59.02. He has to be one of the top 50 thoroughbreds of all-time based upon his speed figures.

Career: 11 Starts 9-0-1-1, Win Pct: 81.8%, Top 3 Pct: 90.9%
Biggest Wins: 2004 Breeders’ Cup Classic, 2005 Metropolitan Handicap
Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 128
Awards: American Champion Older Male (2004), American Horse of the Year (2004), World’s Top Ranked Horse (2004), National Museum of Racing Hall of Fame (2012)
Career Earnings: $3,446,120

Invasor – The Argentinian-bred horse was a Uruguayan Triple Crown winner before racing in the US. He won all five races in his North American race career.

Career: 12 Starts 11-0-0-1, Win Pct: 91.7%, Top 3 Pct: 91.7%
Biggest Wins: 2006 Whitney Handicap, 2006 Breeders’ Cup Classic, 2007 Dubai World Cup
Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 116
Awards: 2006 American Horse of the Year, 2006 American Champion Older Male, World’s Top Ranked Horse (2006), National Museum of Racing Hall of Fame (2013)
Career Earnings: $7,804,070

Point Given – The only horse other than American Pharoah to have won four $1 Million dollar races in a row when he won the Preakness Stakes, the Belmont Stakes, the Haskell Invitational and the Travers Stakes in 2007. And he was the first to accomplish this feat. OK, point taken.

Career: 13 Starts 9-3-0-0, Win Pct: 69.2%, Top 3 Pct: 92.3%
Biggest Wins: 2001 Santa Anita Derby, 2001 Preakness Stakes, 2001 Belmont Stakes, 2001 Haskell Invitational, 2001 Travers Stakes
Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 117
Awards: American Champion 3 Year Old Male (2001), American Horse of the Year (2001), National Museum of Racing Hall of Fame (2010)
Career Earnings: $3,968,500

Rachel Alexandra – The 2nd best filly in the 21st Century after Zenyatta. With her 2009 Preakness Stakes win, she became one of only eleven fillies to have ever won a Triple Crown race.

Career: 19 Starts 13-5-0-0, Win Pct: 68.4%,  Top 3 Pct:  94.7%
Biggest Wins: 2009 Kentucky Oaks, 2009 Preakness Stakes, 2009 Haskell Invitational, 2009 Woodward Stakes
Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 116
Awards: American Champion 3 Year Old Filly (2009), American Horse of the Year (2009)
Career Earnings: $3,506,730

Shared Belief – His career was cut short by his untimely death due to colic and various injuries. Had he been healthy, I strongly believe that he would have been a Triple Crown contender in 2014. He had the top Beyer Speed Figure for a 2 Year Old in 2013 (105) and as a 3 Year Old in 2014 (111). To me, it is a no-brainer that he should win the 2015 Older Male Horse award.

Career: 12 Starts 10-0-0-1, Win Pct: 83.3%, Top 3 Pct: 83.3%
Biggest Wins: 2014 Pacific Classic, 2015 Santa Anita Handicap
Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 115
Awards: American Champion 2 Year Old Male (2013)
Career Earnings: $2,932,200

Smarty Jones – His Triple Crown pursuit came up short by one length to Birdstone in the 2004 Belmont Stakes. He finished 1st or 2nd in 9 career starts–near perfection. A very underrated horse, definitely Horse of the Year caliber but he lost out to Ghostzapper and didn’t run after the Belmont.

Career: 9 Starts 8-1-0-0, Win Pct: 88.9%,  Top 3 Pct: 100%
Biggest Wins: 2004 Arkansas Derby, 2004 Kentucky Derby, 2004 Preakness Stakes
Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 118
Awards: American Champion 3 Year Old Male (2004)
Career Earnings: $7,613,155

Tiznow – The only horse to have won the Breeders’ Cup Classic twice. It will be a long time before this feat is accomplished again.

Career: 15 Starts 8-4-2-0, Win Pct: 53.3%, Top 3 Pct: 93.3%
Biggest Wins: Breeders’ Cup Classic (2000, 2001), 2001 Santa Anita Handicap
Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 119
Awards: American Champion 3 Year Old Male (2000), American Horse of the Year (2000), American Champion Older Male (2001), National Museum of Racing Hall of Fame (2009)
Career Earnings: $6,427,830

Wise Dan – The two-time American Horse of the Year winner was primarily a turf horse but he did win the 2011 Clark Handicap on dirt as well as a couple of races on synthetic surfaces.

Career: 31 Starts 23-2-0-3, Win Pct: 74.2%,  Top 3 Pct:  80.6%
Biggest Wins: 2010 Breeders’ Cup Sprint, 2012 Breeders’ Cup Mile, 2012 Shadwell Turf Mile, 2013 Breeders’ Cup Mile, 2014 Shadwell Turf Mile
Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 117
Awards: American Champion Older Male (2012, 013), American Champion Older Turf Male (2012, 2013), American Horse of the Year (2012,2013)
Career Earnings: $7,552,920

In addition to these horses, keep an eye on Beholder, Songbird and Nyquist.

If you feel that I have missed somebody, leave a comment

–Michael

 

 

A Tribute to Shared Belief

Posted on by Michael J. Cox

The sport of horse racing received some very sad and shocking news today with the passing of Shared Belief due to a bout with colic. Shared Belief was a tremendous talent and a super star that the sport needed heading into 2016. He currently ranked 4th in the Longines World’s Best Horse Racehorse rankings-the 2nd best dirt horse in the world behind American Pharoah. He was ranked #1 in the world before being sidelined with injury in April.

His jockey Mike Smith was devastated by the news, posting this on his Facebook page: “I can’t stop crying right now. Shared Belief was one of the greatest and most special horses that I have ever ridden. Every day I woke up looking forward to being reunited with him. I am so thankful that I got to be part of his life. My thoughts and prayers go out to the connections as I know they are hurting too. RIP Champ.”

Jim Rome, part of Shared Belief’s ownership group, posted this: “Thoroughbred racing is a sport filled with the highest of highs and the lowest of lows. Some of the most thrilling and surreal moments of our entire lives have occurred in this sport. Unfortunately, today we have suffered our most devastating. We are all absolutely devastated. Shared Belief was a once in a lifetime horse. A champion, fighter and unbelievable talent who impacted and changed all of our lives. He loved to compete and run, and as heartbreaking as today is, we consider ourselves so fortunate to have been a part of this amazing animal’s life.”

Shared Belief’s career numbers: 12 Career starts, 10 wins. The winner of the American 2 Year Old Male Eclipse Award in 2013. He had the top Beyer Speed Figure for 2 year-olds in 2013 (106), the top Beyer Speed Figure for 3 year-olds in 2014 (115). And his 111 Beyer Speed Figure in the Santa Anita Handicap (his last win) was the top Beyer Speed Figure for all horses at the time when was he was sidelined from racing after the Charles Town Classic in April.

I was totally shocked and saddened by this news. I had to read the news bit twice as I was in disbelief. I was looking forward to his return to racing in 2016 and beyond. I was hoping to see him defend his Santa Anita Handicap Championship in person next March. I think he should win the 2015 Eclipse Award for Older Male Horse-this would be the most fitting way to remember him. The sport has lost a tremendously bright star.

Here is Shared Belief’s first start of his career–an impressive win. Even the announcer took note of his talent.

Here is his Awesome Again Stakes win that really demonstrated his fighting spirit.

Here is his biggest win of 2014, the TVG Pacific Classic where he posted a career best 115 Beyer Speed Figure.

The 2015 San Antonio Stakes deemed as “The Clash of the Titans” that saw him beat the 2014 Horse of the Year California Chrome,

And Shared Belief’s last win, probably the biggest of his career–the 2015 Santa Anita Handicap.

And a great tribute video:

RIP Shared Belief. A CHAMPION that will be dearly missed by many.

–Michael

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

My Updated 2016 Kentucky Derby Contenders and 2016 Breeders’ Cup Watch List

Posted on by Michael J. Cox

UPDATED  12/9/2015  4:30 PM CST

Here are my updated 2016 Kentucky Derby Contenders. The filly Songbird is still my #1. Mohaymen moves way up the list with his performance in the Remsen Stakes.

1) Songbird – Although she will likely be pegged for the Kentucky Oaks, she is the top 2 year-old regardless of gender and she would be my Kentucky Derby favorite. Undefeated Nyquist is the top 2 year-old colt and my early Kentucky Derby favorite and all Songbird did is run a full second faster than him at the same distance, same track and on the same day at the Breeders Cup World Championships. That would be equivalent to 6 1/2 lengths. She will win the 2015 Eclipse Top 2 Year Old Female Horse award.

Career: 4 Starts 4-0-0-0
Best 1 Mile Time: N/A
Best 1 1/16th Mile Time: 1:42.73 – Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies
Best Beyer Speed Figure: 99 – Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies

2) Nyquist – Winner of three Grade 1 Stakes races: The Del Mar Futurity, the FrontRunner Stakes and the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. My way too early Kentucky Derby favorite proved that his declining Beyer Speed Figures wasn’t a concern with impressive win in the Juvenile. The Doug O’Neill-trained colt is still undefeated in five starts. His stalking racing style reminds me of a young American Pharoah. He will win the 2015 Eclipse Top 2 Year Old Male Horse award.

Career: 5 Starts 5-0-0-0
Best 1 Mile Time: N/A
Best 1 1/16th Mile Time: 1:43.79 – Breeders’ Cup Juvenile
Best Beyer Speed Figure: 89 – Breeders’ Cup Juvenile

3) Mohaymen – The Kiaran McLaughlin-trained colt posted an impressive 94 Beyer Speed Figure in the Remsen Stakes on Saturday and a 89 Beyer Speed Figure in the Nashua Stakes on November 4th. For those who loved the horse Frosted on the Kentucky Derby trail last year, he is his half brother and is a striking resemblance. However, he is better than Frosted at this stage of his career. His time of 1:50.69 was faster than Honor Code’s in 2013 and Frosted and Keen Ice’s time last year in the Remsen. He is undefeated in 3 starts and the new dark horse to win the 2016 Kentucky Derby. His sire was Tapit so that makes him a half-brother to Tonalist too.

Career: 3 Starts 3-0-0-0
Best 1 Mile Time: 1:36.01 – Nashua Stakes
Best 1 1/16th Mile Time: N/A
Best 1 1/8th Mile Time: 1:50.69 – Remsen Stakes
Best Beyer Speed Figure: 94- Remsen Stakes

4) Swipe – This Desormeaux brothers colt has finished 2nd to Nyquist four times in his last four starts. However, he keeps narrowing the gap each time. I like his future in races 1 1/8th mile or greater. His sire was Birdstone who won the Belmont Stakes and Travers Stakes in 2004.

Career: 7 Starts 1-5-1-0
Best 1 Mile Time: N/A
Best 1 1/16th Mile Time: 1:43.87 (calculated) – FrontRunner Stakes
Best Beyer Speed Figure: 88 – Breeders’ Cup Juvenile

5) Brody’s Cause – Dale Roman’s winner of the Breeders’ Futurity Stakes. His sire was Giant’s Causeway who had a great career on the other side of the pond and finished 2nd in the 2000 Breeders’ Cup Classic. On closer inspection, this horse has excellent closing speed that he demonstrated in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile with his 3rd place finish. He looks to be a First Saturday in May horse.

Career: 4 Starts 2-0-1-0
Best 1 Mile Time: 1:37.64 – Churchill Down MSW – Race #5
Best 1 1/16th Mile Time: 1:43.27 – Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity
Best Beyer Speed Figure: 88 – Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity

6) Exaggerator – Another Desormeaux brothers colt, he finished 4th in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and then followed this effort with a win in the Delta Downs Jackpot with a 92 Beyer Speed Figure. Exaggerator’s sire was Curlin (2007 Preakness Stakes and Breeders’ Cup Classic winner). I am expecting him to improve and his Delta Downs Jackpot win was a step in the right direction.

Career: 6 Starts 3-1-0-1 
Best 1 Mile Time: N/A
Best 1 1/16th Mile Time: 1:43.43 (calculated) Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity
Best Beyer Speed Figure: 92 – Delta Downs Jackpot

7) Gift Box – Consider in just his 2nd start, this Chad Brown-trained colt produced a time of 1:43:00 on a sloppy track at Belmont–good for a 93 Beyer Speed Figure. That was faster than American Pharoah’s time of 1:45.78 in the sloppy Rebel Stakes at the same 1 1/16th mile distance. And American Pharoah was a 3 year-old in the Rebel. He finished a respectable 3rd in the Remsen Stakes.

Career: 3 Starts 1-0-2-0
Best 1 Mile Time: N/A
Best 1 1/16th Mile Time: 1:43.00 – Belmont MSW- Race #11
Best 1 1/8th Mile Time: 1:51.17 (calculated)
Best Beyer Speed Figure: 93 – Belmont MSW- Race #11

8) Greenpointcrusader – Although he finished 7th in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, I generally liked his movement up through the field where he was 12th at the three quarter pole and finished 7th and a couple of “necks” from finishing 5th. He should do well in longer distance races.  The winner of Champagne Stakes where he received a 94 Beyer Speed Figure. His time was 0.37 seconds faster than last year’s Champagne Stakes winner Daredevil (who received a 107 Beyer) on a similar sloppy sealed track. Excellent pedigree: sire Bernardini (Rachel’s Valentina’s sire), grand sire A.P. Indy, great-grand sire Seattle Slew. His sire Bernardini won the 2006 Preakness Stakes, Travers Stakes, the Jockey Club Gold Cup and finished 2nd in the 2006 Breeders’ Cup Classic.

Career: 4 Starts 2-1-0-0
Best 1 Mile Time: 1:36.25 – Champagne Stakes
Best 1 1/16th Mile Time: N/A
Best Beyer Speed Figure: 94 – Champagne Stakes

9) Matt King Coal – The Linda Rice-trained colt has put up back-to-back 90+ Beyer Speed Figures in his last two starts and broke his maiden in his last start while posting a 96 Beyer Speed Figure–the best for a 2 year-old colt this year.

Career: 3 Starts 1-1-1-0
Best 1 Mile Time: 1:36.68 – Belmont Park MSW – Race #5
Best 1 1/16th Mile Time: 1:43.02 (calculated) – Belmont Park MSW – Race #11
Best Beyer Speed Figure: 96 – Belmont Park MSW – Race #5

10) Airoforce – This Mark Casse-trained colt made the transition from turf to dirt with ease by winning the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes race on a wet track at Churchill Downs on Saturday. An impressive effort but I will need to see how he performds on a dry fast track.

Career: 3 Starts 2-1-0-0
Best 1 Mile Time: N/A (on dirt)
Best 1 1/16th Mile Time: 1:45.48 – Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes
Best Beyer Speed Figure: N/A

 

2016 Breeders’ Cup Classic Watch

And now for my updated 2016 Breeders’ Cup Classic watch list. Unbelievable and very sad news that Shared Belief passed away December 3rd due to a bout with colic. Also, Honor Code and Tonalist have been retired to the stud farm. The Breeders’ Cup Classic contender picture will get a little clearer after the Santa Anita Handicap in March.

1) Beholder – It would have been nice to see her race in The Classic but nobody was going to beat American Pharoah that day. Her 114 Beyer Speed Figure in the TVG Pacific Classic was the 2nd best Beyer Speed Figure in 2015 for distances 1 1/4 mile or greater.

Career: 20 Starts 15-3-0-2, Win Pct: 75%, Top 3 Pct: 90%, Top 4 Pct: 100%
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 1:59.77 – 8/22/15 (2015 Pacific Classic)
Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 114 – 2015 Pacific Classic
Career Earnings: $4,436,600

2) Effinex – A 2nd place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Classic and a win in the Clark Handicap make him a strong candidate to win the 2015 Eclipse Older Dirt Male Horse of the Year award.

Career: 20 Starts 7-2-3-4, Win Pct: 35%, Top 3 Pct: 60%, Top 4%: 80%
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:01.11 (calculated) – 10/31/15 (2015 Breeders’ Cup Classic)
Career Best Beyer Speed: 110 – 2015 Breeders’ Cup Classic
Career Earnings: $2,112,950

3) California Chrome – I am glad he is coming back, the sport needs him. Looks like he is being pegged for the San Pasqual Stakes at Santa Anita January 9th and eventually for the Dubai World Cup once again.

Career: 18 Starts 9-3-1-1, Win Pct: 50%, Top 3 Pct: 72.2%, Top 4 Pct: 77.8%
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:01.57 – 11/1/14 (2014 Breeders’ Cup Classic)
Career Beyer Speed Figure: 113 – 2014 Breeders’ Cup Classic
Career Earnings: $6,322,650

4) Dortmund – He is two-for-two since his comeback after the long layoff after the Kentucky Derby: A win in the Native Diver Handicap this past Saturday and the Big Bear Stakes in October. I am expecting big things next year from this Bob Baffert-trained colt provided he is 100% healthy. His next start appears to be the Malibu Stakes at Santa Anita on December 26th.

Career: 10 Starts 8-0-1-1, Win Pct: 80%, Top 3 Pct: 90%, Top 4%: 100%
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:03.50 (calculated) – 5/2/15 (2015 Kentucky Derby)
Career Best Beyer Speed Figure in 2015: 106 – 2015 Santa Anita Derby
Career Earnings: $1,712,480

5) Keen Ice – The only living horse to have beaten a Triple Crown Champion. His 4th place finish in the Clark Handicap was a bit disappointing but he likes 1 1/4 mile distances.

Career: 13 Starts 2-1-3-4, Win Pct: 15.3%, Top 3 Pct: 46.1%, Top 4 Pct: 76.9%
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:01.57 – 8/29/15 (2015 Travers Stakes)
Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 106 – 2015 Travers Stakes
Career Earnings: $1,814,645

6) Frosted – He has a bright future in the sport and should improve as a 4 year-old. His Pennsylvania Derby win was the biggest of his career.

Career: 13 Starts 3-6-1-2, Win Pct: 23%, Top 3 Pct: 69.2%, Top 4 Pct: 92.3%
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:02.05 (calculated) – 8/29/2015 (2015 Travers Stakes)
Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 106 – 2015 Pennsylvania Derby
Career Earnings: $2,062,800

7) Smooth Roller  – A scratch from the Breeders’ Cup Classic. Was his Awesome Again Stakes win a fluke or a sign of bigger and better things to come? We will find out.

Career: 4 Starts 3-0-0-1, Win Pct: 75%, Top 3 Pct: 75%, Top 4 Pct: 100%
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: N/A
Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 111 – 2015 Awesome Again Stakes
Career Earnings: $261,810

8) Firing Line – A promising horse that finished 2nd behind American Pharoah in the Kentucky Derby. He also set a track record in the Sunland Derby. He sat out the year after his 7th place finish in the Preakness Stakes due to foot problems. He is expected to return to racing in late March/early April.

Career: 7 Starts 2-4-0-0, Win Pct: 28.6%, Top 3 Pct: 85.7%, Top 4 Pct: 85.7%
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:03.18 (calculated) – 2015 Kentucky Derby
Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 104 – 2015 Kentucky Derby
Career Earnings: $974,800

9) Catch A Flight – The Argentinian horse has never finished below 3rd in his North American career thus far. He finished 3rd in the Santa Anita Handicap in March behind Shared Belief and Moreno. Then he finished 2nd behind Beholder in the TVG Pacific Classic. He is recovering from body soreness that prevented him from entering the Awesome Again Stakes

Career (North America) : 8 Starts 4-1-3-0, Win Pct: 50%, Top 3 Pct: 100%, Top 4 Pct: 100%
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:01.09 (calculated) – 8/22/15 (2015 TVG Pacific Classic)
Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 106- 2015 California Stakes
Career Earnings: $773,239

10) Texas Red  – A fifth place finish in the Travers was disappointing but he is still recovering. He earned a 105 Beyer Speed Figure with his win in the Jim Dandy Stakes. He won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile as a two year old and was my early Kentucky Derby favorite before his injury. .

Career: 9 Starts 3-3-1-1, Win Pct: 33.3%, Top 3 Pct: 77.8%, Top 4 Pct: 88.9%
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:02.45 (calculated) – 8/29/2015 (2015 Travers Stakes)
Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 105 –2015 Travers Stakes
Career Earnings: $1,767,300

In Memoriam

Shared Belief – RIP. Unbelievable news that he passed away December 3rd after a bout with colic. He posted Beyer Speed Figures of 107 and 111 in two of his three starts in 2015.

Career: 12 Starts 10-0-0-1, Win Pct: 83.3%, Top 3 Pct: 83.3%, Top 4 Pct: 91.7%
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:00.38 (calculated) – 8/24/14 (2014 Pacific Classic)
Career Beyer Speed Figure: 115 – 2014 Pacific Classic
Career Earnings: $2,932,200

–Michael

Looking ahead – My Early 2016 Kentucky Derby and Breeders’ Cup Classic Contenders

Posted on by Michael J. Cox

It is never too late to start thinking about another exciting year of thoroughbred racing. Now that the 2015 Breeders’ Cup World Championships are over, who are the horses to keep an eye on for next year’s Kentucky Derby and Breeders’ Cup Classic?

For the 2016 Kentucky Derby, here’s my early Top 10 contenders thus far. And a surprise–I have a filly ranked #1:

1) Songbird – Although she will likely be pegged for the Kentucky Oaks, she is the top 2 year-old regardless of gender and she would be my Kentucky Derby favorite. Undefeated Nyquist is the top 2 year-old colt and my early Kentucky Derby favorite and all Songbird did is run a full second faster than him at the same distance, same track and same day at the Breeders Cup World Championships. That would be equivalent to 6 1/2 lengths.

Career: 4 Starts 4-0-0-0
Best 1 Mile Time: N/A
Best 1 1/16th Mile Time: 1:42.73 – Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies
Best Beyer Speed Figure: 99 – Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies

2) Nyquist – Winner of three Grade 1 Stakes races: The Del Mar Futurity, the FrontRunner Stakes and the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. My way too early Kentucky Derby favorite proved that his declining Beyer Speed Figures wasn’t a concern with impressive win in the Juvenile. The Doug O’Neill-trained colt Nyquist is still undefeated in five starts. His stalking racing style reminds me of a young American Pharoah. He will win the Eclipse Top 2 Year Old Male Horse award.

Career: 5 Starts 5-0-0-0
Best 1 Mile Time: N/A
Best 1 1/16th Mile Time: 1:43.79 – Breeders’ Cup Juvenile
Best Beyer Speed Figure: 89 – Breeders’ Cup Juvenile

3) Swipe – This Desormeaux brothers colt has finished 2nd to Nyquist four times in his last four starts. However, he keeps narrowing the gap each time. I like his future in races 1 1/8th mile or greater. His sire was Birdstone who won the Belmont Stakes and Travers Stakes in 2004.

Career: 7 Starts 1-5-1-0
Best 1 Mile Time: N/A
Best 1 1/16th Mile Time: 1:43.87 (calculated) – FrontRunner Stakes
Best Beyer Speed Figure: 88 – Breeders’ Cup Juvenile

4) Brody’s Cause – Dale Roman’s winner of the Breeders’ Futurity Stakes. His sire was Giant’s Causeway who had a great career on the other side of the pond and finished 2nd in the 2000 Breeders’ Cup Classic. On closer inspection, this horse has excellent closing speed that he demonstrated in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile with his 3rd place finish. He looks to be a 1st Saturday in May horse.

Career: 4 Starts 2-0-1-0
Best 1 Mile Time: 1:37.64 – Churchill Down Maiden Special Weight – Race #5
Best 1 1/16th Mile Time: 1:43.27 – Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity
Best Beyer Speed Figure: 88 – Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity

5) Greenpointcrusader – Although he finished 7th in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, I generally liked his movement up through the field where he was 12th at the three quarter pole and finished 7th and a couple of “necks” from finishing 5th. He should do well in longer distance races.  The winner of Champagne Stakes where he received a 94 Beyer Speed Figure. His time was 0.37 seconds faster than last year’s Champagne Stakes winner Daredevil (who received a 107 Beyer) on a similar sloppy sealed track. Excellent pedigree: sire Bernardini (Rachel’s Valentina’s sire), grand sire A.P. Indy, great-grand sire Seattle Slew. His sire Bernardini won the 2006 Preakness Stakes, Travers Stakes, the Jockey Club Gold Cup and finished 2nd in the 2006 Breeders’ Cup Classic.

Career: 4 Starts 2-1-0-0
Best 1 Mile Time: 1:36.25 – Champagne Stakes
Best 1 1/16th Mile Time: N/A
Best Beyer Speed Figure: 94 – Champagne Stakes

6) Exaggerator – Another Desormeaux brothers colt, he finished 4th in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Exaggerator’s sire was Curlin (2007 Preakness Stakes and Breeders’ Cup Classic winner). I am expecting him to improve.

Career: 5 Starts 2-1-0-1 
Best 1 Mile Time: N/A
Best 1 1/16th Mile Time: 1:43.43 (calculated) Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity
Best Beyer Speed Figure: 86 – Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity

7) Matt King Coal – The Linda Rice-trained colt has put up back-to-back 90+ Beyer Speed Figures in his last two starts and broke his maiden in his last start while posting a 96 Beyer Speed Figure–the best for a 2 year-old colt this year.

Career: 3 Starts 1-1-1-0
Best 1 Mile Time: 1:36.68 – Belmont Park MSW – Race #5
Best 1 1/16th Mile Time: 1:43.02 (calculated) – Belmont Park MSW – Race #11
Best Beyer Speed Figure: 96 – Belmont Park MSW – Race #5

8) Mohaymen – The Kiaran McLaughlin-trained colt posted an 89 Beyer Speed Figure in the Nashua Stakes on November 4th. His sire is Tapit so that means that he will like distance. A Frosted clone in the making?

Career: 2 Starts 2-0-0-0
Best 1 Mile Time: 1:36.01 – Nashua Stakes
Best 1 1/16th Mile Time: N/A
Best Beyer Speed Figure: 89 – Nashua Stakes

9) Gift Box – Consider in just his 2nd start, this Chad Brown-trained colt produced a time of 1:43:00 on a sloppy track at Belmont–good for a 93 Beyer Speed Figure. That was faster than American Pharoah’s time of 1:45.78 in the sloppy Rebel Stakes at the same 1 1/16th mile distance. And American Pharoah was a 3 year-old in the Rebel. Call me curious to see what this colt will do in his next start on a dry, fast track at a distance of a mile or more.

Career: 2 Starts 1-0-1-0
Best 1 Mile Time: N/A
Best 1 1/16th Mile Time: 1:43.00 – Belmont Maiden Special Weight- Race #11
Best Beyer Speed Figure: 93 – Belmont Maiden Special Weight- Race #11

10) Sakara – This ranking is probably a bit premature but he is American Pharoah’s half brother from the same Zayat Stables. He broke his maiden in his first start on the turf at the Meadowlands October 24th and he looked quite “Pharoahish” doing it.

Career: 1 Starts 1-0-0-0
Best 1 Mile Time: 1:37.48 (turf) – Meadowlands Maiden Special Weight – Race #5
Best 1 1/16th Mile Time: N/A
Best Beyer Speed Figure: N/A

2016 Breeders’ Cup Classic Watch

And now for a look ahead at the top Breeders’ Cup Classic contenders for next season. Both Shared Belief and California Chrome are set to return to racing. Below are my Top 10 contenders entering 2016. The picture will get a little clearer after the Santa Anita Handicap in March.

1) Beholder – It would have been nice to see her race in The Classic but nobody was going to beat American Pharoah that day.

Career: 20 Starts 15-3-0-2, Win Pct: 75%, Top 3 Pct: 90%, Top 4 Pct: 100%
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 1:59.77 – 8/22/15 (2015 Pacific Classic)
Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 114 – 2015 Pacific Classic
Career Earnings: $4,436,600

2) Shared Belief – It will be interesting to see how he does in 2016 after sitting out most of this year.

Career: 12 Starts 10-0-0-1, Win Pct: 83.3%, Top 3 Pct: 83.3%, Top 4 Pct: 91.7%
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:00.38 (calculated) – 8/24/14 (2014 Pacific Classic)
Career Beyer Speed Figure: 115 – 2014 Pacific Classic
Career Earnings: $2,932,200

3) Honor Code – He will be a 5 year old in 2016 like Shared Belief and California Chrome. He could emerge as the better horse of the three when all is said and done.

Career: 11 Starts 6-2-2-0, Win Pct: 54.5%, Top 3 Pct: 90.9%, Top 4 Pct: 90.9%
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:01.83 (calculated) – 10/31/15 (2015 Breeders’ Cup Classic)
Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 113 – 2015 Whitney Handicap
Career Earnings: $2,518,260

4) California Chrome – I am glad he is coming back, the sport needs him. Looks like he is being pegged for the Dubai World Cup once again.

Career: 18 Starts 9-3-1-1, Win Pct: 50%, Top 3 Pct: 72.2%, Top 4 Pct: 77.8%
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:01.57 – 11/1/14 (2014 Breeders’ Cup Classic)
Career Beyer Speed Figure: 113 – 2014 Breeders’ Cup Classic
Career Earnings: $6,322,650

5) Tonalist – Still one of the top horses in North America. The lesson I took away from his Breeders’ Cup Classic run is don’t enter him in the TVG Pacific Classic next year. Give him a 2 month layoff like American Pharoah had and see how he responds to the rest because he tired down the stretch in the Classic.

Career: 15 Starts 6-4-2-1, Win Pct: 40%, Top 3 Pct: 80%, Top 4 Pct: 86.7%
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:00.69 (calculated) – 11/1/14 (2014 Breeders’ Cup Classic)
Best Beyer Speed Figure in 2015: 111 – 2015 Westchester Stakes
Career Best Beyer Speed 111 – 2015 Westchester Stakes
Career Earnings: $3,197,000

6) Effinex – A temperamental horse with a lot of talent. A 2nd place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Classic–Jimmy Jerkens has done wonders with him.

Career: 19 Starts 6-2-3-4, Win Pct: 31.6%, Top 3 Pct: 57.9%, Top 4%: 78.9%
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:01.11 (calculated) – 10/31/15 (2015 Breeders’ Cup Classic)
Career Best Beyer Speed: 110 – 2015 Breeders’ Cup Classic
Career Earnings: $1,812,250

7) Keen Ice – The only living horse to have beaten a Triple Crown Champion.

Career: 12 Starts 2-1-3-3, Win Pct: 16.7%, Top 3 Pct: 50%, Top 4 Pct: 75%
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:01.57 – 8/29/15 (2015 Travers Stakes)
Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 106 – 2015 Travers Stakes
Career Earnings: $1,790,395

8) Dortmund – I am expecting big things next year from this Bob Baffert-trained colt provided he is 100% healthy.

Career: 9 Starts 7-0-1-1, Win Pct: 77.8%, Top 3 Pct: 66.9%, Top 4%: 100%
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:03.50 (calculated) – 5/2/15 (2015 Kentucky Derby)
Career Best Beyer Speed Figure in 2015: 106 – 2015 Santa Anita Derby
Career Earnings: $1,622,480

9) Frosted – He has a bright future in the sport and should improve as a 4 year-old.

Career: 13 Starts 3-6-1-2, Win Pct: 23%, Top 3 Pct: 69.2%, Top 4 Pct: 92.3%
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:02.05 (calculated) – 8/29/2015 (2015 Travers Stakes)
Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 106 – 2015 Pennsylvania Derby
Career Earnings: $2,062,800

10) Smooth Roller  – A scratch from the Breeders’ Cup Classic. Was his Awesome Again Stakes win a fluke or a sign of bigger and better things to come? We will find out.

Career: 4 Starts 3-0-0-1, Win Pct: 75%, Top 3 Pct: 75%, Top 4 Pct: 100%
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: N/A
Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 111 – 2015 Awesome Again Stakes
Career Earnings: $261,810

–Michael

Super Saturday: Awesome Again, FrontRunner and Zenyatta Stakes Previews

Posted on by Michael J. Cox

Zoe Metz/Eclipse Sportswire

This coming Saturday, September 26th, is “Super Saturday” at Santa Anita Park that has five “Win and You’re In” Breeders’ Cup races.

The three really key races Saturday are:

The FrontRunner Stakes (1 1/16 mile) for 2 year-olds that guarantees entry into the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Post Time is 4:32 CST. Remember, last year that American Pharoah won this race–need I say more? Headlining this field is Nyquist, my way too early Kentucky Derby favorite, who has won 3 straight races. I have got to go with the hot horse Nyquist in this one and I forsee another Nyquist-Swipe 1-2 finish like we had in the Del Mar Futurity (shown below). Swipe looked like he could handle the added distance in the Del Mar. But with 2 year-olds, they are unpredictable at this stage.

From the Bob Baffert stable, Mt Veeder, whose sire was Ghostzapper, is undefeated and is ridden by Martin Garcia. He has never raced longer than 6 furlongs but he would be my surprise pick to upset Nyquist.

PP horse/Weight/Jockey/Odds

  1. Go Long (122) Desormeaux – 20/1
  2. On Fire (122) Callaghan – 12/1
  3. Blameitonthelaw (122) Sadler – 5/1
  4. Nyquist (122) Gutierrez – 6/5
  5. Hollywood Don (122) Blance – 5/1
  6. Rare Candy (122) Talamo – 15/1
  7. Swipe (122) Desormeaux 5/1
  8. Mt Veeder (122) Garcia 6/1

The Zenyatta Stakes (1 1/16 mile) for 3 year-old fillies and mares that guarantees entry into the Breeders’ Cup Longines Distaff. Post Time is 5:40 CST. Highlighting the field is Beholder–who I have ranked #1 in my Breeders’ Cup Classic Rankings. Warren’s Veneda is probably the second biggest name horse in this field. I expect My Sweet Addiction’s 8/1 odds to lower come post time. At any rate, Beholder will win this race comfortably.You may want to consider placing a $25 “9 over 6,8” Exacta which would cost $50.

PP horse/Weight/Jockey/Odds

  1. Oscar Party (119) Graham – 30/1
  2. Savings Account (119) Van Dyke – 15/1
  3. My Monet (119) Gonzalez – 15/1
  4. Big Book (116) Desormeaux -15/1
  5. Kyriaki (119) Gutierrez – 20/1
  6. MySweet Addiction (124) Smith – 8/1
  7. Wild in the Saddle (119) Bejarano -12/1
  8. Warren’s Veneda (121) Baze – 6/1
  9. Beholder (124) Stevens – 2/5

The Awesome Again Stakes (1 1/8 mile) for 3 year-olds and up that guarantees entry into the Breeders’ Cup Classic. Post Time is 7:14 CST. Last year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Bayern is entered as well as Hoppertunity and Hard Aces–who are ranked 11th and 13th respectively in my Breeders Cup Classic rankings.

PP horse/Weight/Jockey/Odds

1. Hard Aces (124) Espinoza – 4/1
2. Sammy Mandeville (119) Bejarano – 10/1
3. Point Piper (119) Gutierrez – 8/1
4. Global View (119) Van Dyke 12/1
5. Hoppertunity (121) Smith 3/1
6. Imperative (119) Nakatani 6/1
7. Smooth Roller (119) Baze 6/1
8. Bayern (121) Garcia 5/2

Overall, this is a difficult race to handicap. Bayern has been training well and may be showing signs that he could be getting back on track. Hard Aces had a disappointing 6th place finish in his last start in the TVG Pacific Classic. Hoppertunity is probably the safer pick here with a Place bet. Too many unknowns to make any exotic bets and an 8 horse field probably means that superfectas won’t pay out big unless longshots finish near the top.

SHARED BELIEF

In other news, Shared Belief has begun light workouts and will return to racing in 2016 as will California Chrome.

–Michael

Dortmund highlights Another Big Derby Trail Weekend

Posted on by Michael J. Cox

Tomorrow, March 7th, there are three important races on the Kentucky Derby Trail that will feature 10 of the 23 horses listed in the Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool #3. I have bold fonted these horses in the text below. Also the Swale Stakes at Gulfstream Park will feature the Bob Baffert-trained Daredevil who is coming off a long layoff but this race is non-points paying. For the 4 year-old race fans,  Shared Belief highlights the Santa Anita Handicap and the San Carlos Stakes features the Bob Baffert sprinter Chitu.

1) Swale Stakes – 7 furlongs at Gulfstream Park. Race #6 2 PM CST: Here are the key horses with their Morning Line odds: Daredevil 4/5, X Y Jet 4/1, Ready for Rye 9/2 and Bluegrass Singer 8/1. I think Daredevil is going to wire this field. I would plunk down a $20 Place bet on Daredevil (horse #1) just in case he is rusty coming off a long layoff.

2) Gotham Stakes – 1 1/16th Mile at Aqueduct. Race #9 at 3:50 PM CST: The two morning line favorites are El Kabeir 8/5 and Classy Class 7/2. Todd Pletcher has three horses with 5/1 Odds: Blame Jim, Dontbetwithbruno and Uninfluenced. Blame Jim is probably the best out of these three. The Chad Brown-trained horse Lieutenant Colonel is also 5/1 odds and is coming off a maiden win at Gulfstream Park in February.

Overall, I don’t feel good about betting on this race, too many fresh faces from the Pletcher barn. If I bet anything it would be a Show Bet on El Kabeir. If the Daredevil place bet wins in the Swale, take all the earnings from that race and put it on El Kabeir (horse #4) to Show.

3) Tampa Bay Derby – 1 1/16 Mile at Tampa Bay Downs. Race #11 at 4:23 PM CST: The two key horses in this race with the ML odds are: Carpe Diem 8/5, Ocean Knight 2/1. Danzig Moon starts on the outside post and is 12/1 odds. I like a $10 Boxed Exacta (2-3) on Carpe Diem and Ocean Knight.

4) San Felipe Stakes – 1 1/16th Mile at Santa Anita Park. Race #7 at 4:57 PM CST: This race features five horses who were listed in the Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool #3. These horses with their ML Odds are: Dortmund 8/5, Ocho Ocho Ocho 4/1, Lord Nelson 4/1, Prospect Park 4/1 and Bolo 6/1.

Overall, the only horse I feel that might be capable of beating Dortmund is Ocho Ocho Ocho. However, he is coming off a 105 day layoff so you never know if a horse like this will have improved by leaps and bounds or be rusty. Interesting to note, both Dortmund and Ocho Ocho Ocho are undefeated. Prospect Park is another fast horse with Kent Desormeaux as his rider. This will be Dortmund’s biggest test to date. I like Dortmund again and I would place $50 on him (horse #3) to win. I would also consider placing a $10 Boxed Exacta 3-6 (Dortmund and Prospect Park).

5) San Carlos Stakes – 7 Furlongs at Santa Anita Park. Race #9 at 6:07 PM CST: Chitu (2/1) will battle Conquest Two Step (5/2) and WIld Dude (3/1) and Bob Baffert’s other entry Midnight Hawk (6/1). I think Chitu will wire this field.. So I would place a $20 Win bet on Chitu (horse #1).

6) Santa Anita Handicap – 1 1/4th Mile at Santa Anita Park for 4 Year-Olds & Upwards. Race #11 at 7:17 PM CST: Shared Belief is listed a 3/5 ML Odds and his main competition will come from Moreno who is 6/1 ML Odds. I feel real good about this one and I generally don’t like betting on 4 year-olds. However, I would place a $50 win bet on Shared Belief (horse #5) and I would place it every time so long as Bayern or California Chrome aren’t competing against him. It will probably only pay you back $60 but this is as sure of a 20% ROI you will find this year. If California Chrome couldn’t beat Share Belief back in January, I don’t expect any horse in this field to beat him either.

–Michael