2016 Sentient Jet Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Post-Positions, Odds and Analysis

Posted on November 3, 2016 by Michael J. Cox

November 3rd 2016

Below are the post-positions and morning line odds for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile race, a sneak preview of the 2017 Kentucky Derby Trail contenders. Post time is 4:43 PM CST this Saturday and the race will be televised on NBC Sports.

Overall, this is an extremely talented field and a much better crop of 2 year-olds than last year. I feel that the race could be won by as many as four horses: Not This Time, Classic Empire, Gormley and Klimt. I think Klimt will be challenged by drawing the rail. If he has the stamina, he could end up wiring this field. But I feel that the most likely winner will be either Classic Empire or Not This Time. There should be enough skepticism about both of these two horses since Classic Empire had starting gate issues two races back and Not This Time’s last race was run in muddy conditions. And starting in the 7 hole, Gormley won’t have a ground-saving trip like he had in the FrontRunner Stakes where he wired the field from #1 post I would will probably make a boxed Trifecta bet with 4 horses: 1-5-7-10. A Boxed Superfecta or Boxed Exacta bet will be hard to hit or not pay out very much unless your outlay is large.

2016 Breeders Cup Juvenile Post-Positions and Odds

1) Klimt (6/1) – Owned by Kaleem Shah and trained by Bob Baffert–the same combination that produced Bayern and Dortmund. He lost to Gormley in the FrontRunner Stakes but gained valuable experience sitting off the pace as a stalker. Klimt’s sire Quality Road won the Florida Derby, Met Mile, Donn Handicap, Woodward Stakes. Quality Road suffered two quarter cracks that prevented him from competing in all three legs of the Triple Crown.

Career: 4 Starts 3-0-0-1 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 1
Last 3 starts: 1st–>1st–>1st
Sire: Quality Road
Trainer: Bob Baffert (1997, 1998, 2002, 2015 Kentucky Derby Winning Trainer)
Jockey: Rafael Bejarano
Fastest 1 Mile Time: 1:37.51* – estimated time from 2016 FrontRunner Stakes
Fastest 1 1/16th Mile Time: 1:44.05 (calculated) – 2016 FrontRunner Stakes
Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 94 – 2016 Del Mar Futurity

2) Syndergaard (6/1) – He lost by a nose to Practical Joke in the Champagne. This Todd Pletcher-trainee has an average Beyer Speed Figure of 88 in 3 starts. However, I am concerned that he will like distance. His sire Majesticperfection was a sprinter that didn’t race until he was 4 years old but won 5 out of 6 sprint races.

Career: 3 Starts 2-1-0-0 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 0
Last 3 starts: 1st–>1st–>2nd
Sire: Majesticperfection
Trainer: Todd Pletcher (2010 Kentucky Derby Winning Trainer)
Jockey: John Velazquez (2011 Kentucky Derby Winner)
Fastest 1 Mile Time: 1:34.69 (calculated) – 2016 Champagne Stakes
Fastest 1 1/16th Mile Time: N/A
Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 90 – 2016 Funny Cide Stakes

3) Term of Art (30/1) – The Doug O’Neill-trained 2 year-old will be the 2nd longshot in this race by bettors. His times are pedestrian for this very talented field. However, he is a Tiznow colt so expect him to improve as he stretches out.

Career: 3 Starts 1-1-1-0 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 0
Last 3 starts: 3rd–>2nd–>1st
Sire: Tiznow (Finished 16th in 2012 Kentucky Derby)
Trainer: Doug O’Neil (2012 and 2016 Kentucky Derby Winning Trainer)
Jockey: Joe Talamo
Fastest 1 Mile Time: 1:38.39 (calculated) – Del Mar MSW 8/25/16
Fastest 1 1/16th Mile Time: N/A
Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: Unknown

4) Theory (12/1) – When it comes to the pedigree, trainer and jockey combination, Theory is probably the most attractive 2 year-old colt. Trained by Todd Pletcher who won the 2010 Kentucky Derby with Super Saver. Ridden by jockey John Velazquez who won the 2011 Kentucky Derby on Animal Kingdom. Theory has raced twice at the 6 furlong distance and received 85 Beyer Speed Figures for both races. His sire Gemologist went undefeated in five starts heading into the 2012 Kentucky Derby where he finished 16th.

Career: 2 Starts 2-0-0-0 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 0
Sire: Gemologist (Finished 16th in 2012 Kentucky Derby)
Trainer: Todd Pletcher (2010 Kentucky Derby Winning Trainer)
Jockey: Javier Castellano
Fastest 1 Mile Time: N/A
Fastest 1 1/16th Mile Time: N/A
Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 85 – 2016 Futurity Stakes

5) Classic Empire* (4/1) – American Pharoah’s half-brother. Looks like Blinkers On helped him through his gate issues in the Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity. I have been very high on the Pioneerof the Nile colt and wrote about him back in July (SEE). He is right where I thought he would be after his hiccup in the Hopeful Stakes.

Career: 4 Starts 3-0-0-0 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 1
Last 3 starts: 1st–>DNF–>1st
Sire: Pioneerof the Nile (Finished 2nd in 2009 Kentucky Derby)
Trainer: Mark Casse
Jockey: Julien Leparoux
Fastest 1 Mile Time: 1:36.89* – time from 2016 Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity
Fastest 1 1/16th Mile Time: 1:43.41 – 2016 Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity
Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 88 – 2016 Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity

6) Three Rules (8/1) – He has owned the 2 year-old races at Gulfstream Park thus far and is the current winnings leader for 2 year-old colts at $680,640. His sire Gone Astray never raced further than 9 furlongs and his biggest win was the 2009 Pennsylvania Derby. He appears to be the early favorite for the Florida Derby.

Career: 5 Starts 5-0-0-0 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 0
Last 3 starts: 1st–>1st–>1st
Sire: Gone Astray
Trainer: Jose Pinchin
Jockey: Cornelio Velasquez
Fastest Mile Time: 1:37.81 – 2016 Florida In Reality Stakes
Fastest 1 1/16th Mile Time: 1:44.63 – 2016 Florida In Reality Stakes
Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 94 – 2016 Florida Dr Fagar Stakes

7) Gormley* (5/1) – He comes from the same owner/trainer combination that produced Zenyatta. He earned a 93 Beyer Speed Figure with his win in the 2nd start of his career–the FrontRunner Stakes (shown below)–beating the race favorite Klimt. So far, this is the highest Beyer Speed Figure for a 2 year-old at more than a mile distance. My only concern is, he probably won’t be able to run like he did in FrontrRunner Stakes and win a 10 furlong race. But give him credit, he used the rail post to his advantage and didn’t tire at the end. Expect many more Gormley vs Klimt battles on the west coast in the future.

Career: 2 Starts 2-0-0-0 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 1
Last 3 starts: N/A–>1st–>1st
Sire: Malibu Moon
Trainer: John Sherreffs (2005 Kentucky Derby Winning Trainer)
Jockey: Victor Espinosa (2002, 2014 & 2015 Kentucky Derby Winner)
Fastest Mile Time: 1:36.87* – time from 2016 FrontRunner Stakes
Fastest 1 1/16th Mile Time: 1:43.57 – 2016 FrontRunner Stakes
Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 93 – 2016 FrontRunner Stakes

8) Star Empire (30/1) – The British colt has never raced further than 7 furlongs. He finished 2nd to Theory in the Futurity Stakes shown below. He will be the longshot in this field with live odds greater than 30-1.

Career: 4 Starts 2-1-1-0 Grade 1 Stakes Wins:0
Last 3 starts: 1st–>3rd–>2nd
Sire: Foxwedge
Trainer: Wesley Ward
Jockey: Tyler Gaffalione
Fastest Mile Time: N/A
Fastest 1 1/16th Mile Time: N/A

9) Practical Joke* (6/1) – The Chad Brown-trainee now has two Grade 1 stakes wins. His time of 1:34.68 in the Champagne Stakes was a great time, even considering that this was a one turn race. However, like Syndergaard whom he beat by a nose, neither have competed in a two-turn race thus far. This is why both weren’t ranked higher in my previous rankings. Plus, East Coast colts haven’t fared as well as their West Coast counterparts the past few years on the Derby trail. Practical Joke is the son of Into Mischief. I have some pedigree concerns and especially beyond 9 furlongs.

Career: 3 Starts 3-0-0-0 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 2
Last 3 starts: 1st–>1st–>1st
Sire: Into Mischief
Trainer: Chad Brown
Jockey: Joel Rosario (2013 Kentucky Derby Winner)
Fastest 1 Mile Time: 1:34.68 – 2016 Champagne Stakes
Fastest 1 1/16th Mile Time: N/A
Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 88 – 2016 Champagne Stakes

10) Not This Time* (7/2) – Dale Romans is very high on this Giant’s Causeway colt, calling him “spooky good”. He reminds him of his half-brother Brody’s Cause. He is also Liam’s Map half-brother, the two sharing the same dam (mother) in Miss Macy Sue. He has won his last two starts by nearly 19 lengths and seems to be able to kick it into a higher gear with great acceleration in the final couple of furlongs. We probably won’t get the full understanding of what he can really do until he races against some stiffer competition.

Career: 3 Starts 2-0-0-0 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 0

Last 3 starts: 5th–>1st–>1st

Sire: Giant’s Causeway
Trainer: Dale Romans
Jockey: Robby Albarado
Fastest 1 Mile Time: 1:35.99 – 2016 Ellis Park MSW 8/12/16
Fastest 1 1/16th Mile Time: 1:45.22 (muddy conditions) – 2016 Iroquios Stakes
Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 86 – 2016 Iroquios Stakes

11) Lookin At Lee (20/1) – Steve Asmussen’s best 2 year-old colt thus far. He has finished 2nd in his last two starts to Not This TIme and Classic Empire.

Career: 5 Starts 2-2-0-0 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 0
Last 3 starts: 1st–>2nd–>2nd
Sire: Lookin’ At Lucky
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
Jockey: Ricardo Santana Jr.
Fastest 1 1/16th Mile Time: 1:43.89 (calculated) – 2016 Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity
Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 83- 2016 Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity

–Michael

Looking ahead to the 2016 Breeders’ Cup Sentient Jet Juvenile and early 2017 Kentucky Derby Contenders

Posted on October 18, 2016 by Michael J. Cox

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October 18th 2016

With the Breeders’ Cup Sentient Jet Juvenile race coming up in 18 days on November 5th, it is time to take a closer look at the possible entries for that race which serves as a nice preview of next year’s Kentucky Derby contenders.

As I have maintained in previous blogs, this is a very deep and talented crop. In terms of Beyer Speed Figures and times, the 2017 Kentucky Derby class appears to be much better than last year’s at this stage of the game and it is probably better than California Chrome’s class three years ago.

I will be at the Breeders’ Cup World Championships again this year to view this race as well as all the others. Here are eight 2-year-old colts to keep an eye on. Note: An asterisk indicates horses who have won a “Win and You’re In” race for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.

2016 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Contenders

1) Not This Time* – Dale Romans is very high on this Giant’s Causeway colt, calling him “spooky good”. He reminds him of his half-brother Brody’s Cause. He is also Liam’s Map half-brother, the two sharing the same dam (mother) in Miss Macy Sue. He has won his last two starts by nearly 19 lengths and seems to be able to kick it into a higher gear with great acceleration in the final couple of furlongs. We probably won’t get the full understanding of what he can really do until he races against some stiffer competition.

Career: 3 Starts 2-0-0-0 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 0
Last 3 starts: 5th–>1st–>1st
Sire: Giant’s Causeway
Trainer: Dale Romans
Jockey: Robby Albarado
Fastest 1 Mile Time: 1:35.99 – 2016 Ellis Park MSW 8/12/16
Fastest 1 1/16th Mile Time: 1:45.22 (muddy conditions) – 2016 Iroquios Stakes
Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 86 – 2016 Iroquios Stakes

2) Classic Empire* – American Pharoah’s half-brother. Looks like Blinkers On helped him through his gate issues in the Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity. I have been very high on the Pioneerof the Nile colt and wrote about him back in July (SEE). He is right where I thought he would be after his hiccup in the Hopeful Stakes.

3) Gormley* – He comes from the same owner/trainer combination that produced Zenyatta. He earned a 93 Beyer Speed Figure with his win in the 2nd start of his career–the FrontRunner Stakes (shown below)–beating the race favorite Klimt. So far, this is the highest Beyer Speed Figure for a 2 year-old at more than a mile distance. My only concern is, he probably won’t be able to run like he did in FrontrRunner Stakes and win a 10 furlong race. But give him credit, he used the rail post to his advantage and didn’t tire at the end. Expect many more Gormley vs Klimt battles on the west coast in the future.

Career: 2 Starts 2-0-0-0 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 1
Last 3 starts: N/A–>1st–>1st
Sire: Malibu Moon
Trainer: John Shirreffs (2005 Kentucky Derby Winning Trainer)
Jockey: Victor Espinosa (2002, 2014 & 2015 Kentucky Derby Winner)
Fastest Mile Time: 1:36.87* – time from 2016 FrontRunner Stakes
Fastest 1 1/16th Mile Time: 1:43.57 – 2016 FrontRunner Stakes
Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 93 – 2016 FrontRunner Stakes

4) Klimt – Owned by Kaleem Shah and trained by Bob Baffert–the same combination that produced Bayern and Dortmund. He lost to Gormley in the FrontRunner Stakes but gained valuable experience sitting off the pace as a stalker. Klimt’s sire Quality Road won the Florida Derby, Met Mile, Donn Handicap, Woodward Stakes. Quality Road suffered two quarter cracks that prevented him from competing in all three legs of the Triple Crown.

5) Practical Joke* – The Chad Brown-trainee now has two Grade 1 stakes wins. His time of 1:34.68 in the Champagne Stakes was a great time, even considering that this was a one turn race. However, like Syndergaard whom he beat by a nose, neither have competed in a two-turn race thus far. This is why both aren’t ranked higher. Plus, East Coast colts haven’t fared as well as their West Coast counterparts the past few years on the Derby trail. Practical Joke is the son of Into Mischief. I have some pedigree concerns and especially beyond 9 furlongs.

Career: 3 Starts 3-0-0-0 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 2
Last 3 starts: 1st–>1st–>1st
Sire: Into Mischief
Trainer: Chad Brown
Jockey: Jose Ortiz
Fastest 1 Mile Time: 1:34.68 – 2016 Champagne Stakes
Fastest 1 1/16th Mile Time: N/A
Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 88 – 2016 Champagne Stakes

6) Syndergaard – He lost by a nose to Practical Joke in the Champagne. This Todd Pletcher-trainee has an average Beyer Speed Figure of 88 in 3 starts. However, I am concerned that he will like distance. His sire Majesticperfection was a sprinter that didn’t race until he was 4 years old but won 5 out of 6 sprint races.

7) Three Rules – He has owned the 2 year-old races at Gulfstream Park thus far and is the current winnings leader for 2 year-old colts at $680,640. His sire Gone Astray never raced further than 9 furlongs and his biggest win was the 2009 Pennsylvania Derby. He appears to be the early favorite for the Florida Derby.

8) Theory – When it comes to the pedigree, trainer and jockey combination, Theory is probably the most attractive 2 year-old colt. Trained by Todd Pletcher who won the 2010 Kentucky Derby with Super Saver. Ridden by jockey John Velazquez who won the 2011 Kentucky Derby on Animal Kingdom. Theory has raced twice at the 6 furlong distance and received 85 Beyer Speed Figures for both races. His sire Gemologist went undefeated in five starts heading into the 2012 Kentucky Derby where he finished 16th.

Career: 2 Starts 2-0-0-0 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 0
Sire: Gemologist (Finished 16th in 2012 Kentucky Derby)
Trainer: Todd Pletcher (2010 Kentucky Derby Winning Trainer)
Jockey: John Velazquez (2011 Kentucky Derby Winner)
Fastest 1 Mile Time: N/A
Fastest 1 1/16th Mile Time: N/A
Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 85 – 2016 Futurity Stakes

In addition to the above horses, here are three more talented 2 year-olds that could be entries in the Juvenile race: Royal Copy, Big Gray Rocket and Lookin At Lee.

–Michael

My “way, way too early” 2017 Kentucky Derby favorite

Posted on September 21, 2016 by Michael J. Cox

September 22nd 2016

Judging from times and Beyer Speed Figures, get ready for a great Triple Crown season next year. The 2016 2 year-old class is a very deep and talented one and much better than last year’s class that included Nyquist, Exaggerator and Mohaymen and better than California Chrome and Shared Belief’s class thus far. And this talent extends itself even to turf. So don’t be surprised if North America produces a colt that will finally compete and beat the European turf horses.

This depth of talent has been the primary reason why I have been reluctant to anoint any 2 year-old thus far as my “way too early Kentucky Derby favorite” like I did one year ago this month with Nyquist. So I am going to scale it up one notch and reveal my “way, way too early 2017 Kentucky Derby favorite.”

Before doing so, I am going to give you my way too early favorites for each of the final North American prep races right before the Kentucky Derby.

Louisiana Derby – Straight Fire

Although he finshed 2nd to Klimt in the Del Mar Furity, his average Beyer Speed Figure in 3 starts is 90. This is the highest average Beyer Speed Figure of any 2 year-old thus far. I am not completely sold on his pedigree. His sire Dominus had moderate success , winning only one Grade 1 race (Dwyer Stakes) before switching to turf.

Much like Firing Line had to get separate from Dortmund on the Derby Trail two years ago, I feel after the Robert B. Lewis Stakes at Santa Anita and many losing battles against Klimt, that the Desormeaux brothers will convince Jim Rome’s Jungle Racing (based on the West Coast) to move their talented colt Straight Fire to the Fairgrounds. Although The Fairgrounds doesn’t have a sterling record of producing Kentucky Derby winners, it has a ton of great history and I feel that the track surface and humidity is a great training ground for the Derby. Steve Asmussen’s Gun Runner won the Louisiana Derby this year and finished third in the Kentucky Derby (much better than I expected). And running in the Louisiana Derby, you get an extra week of prep for the Derby. His Next Race: The FrontRunner Stakes at Santa Anita Park on October 1st.

Florida Derby – Three Rules

I am not sure what the Florida-bred “Three Rules” is named for. My best guess is: 1) Enter races at Gulfstream Park, 2) Run fast, 3) Win! The ringer of 2 year-old races at Gulfstream Park, he is undefeated in 4 starts. The 94 Beyer Speed Figure achieved in the Dr Fagar Stakes was his best career Beyer but I believe his best race was the Florida Affirmed Stakes shown below. His Next Race: The Florida Sire In Reality Stakes at Gulfstream Park on October 1st.

Santa Anita Derby – Klimt

It’s hard to beat Bob Baffert at Santa Anita Park. From the same owner-trainer combination that brought you Bayern and Dortmund comes Klimt who is named after a famous, very controversial pseudo erotic Austrian painter Gustav Klimt. Long pause as many Google his artwork. At any rate, Kaleem Shah has another great colt in Klimt whose time of 1:21.80 in the Del Mar Futurity (shown below) was faster than Nyquist’s time of 1:23.28 in the same race last year. And just 0.32 seconds off of American Pharoah’s time of 1:21.48 in the Del Mar Futurity on a faster synthetic surface.

Klimt is a seriously talented colt with a good pedigree. His sire Quality Road won the Florida Derby, Met Mile, Donn Handicap and Woodward Stakes. Concerning is two separate quarter cracks that kept Quality Road out of all three legs of the Triple Crown. Hopefully this won’t be a problem for Klimt. His Next Race: The FrontRunner Stakes at Santa Anita Park on October 1st.

Blue Grass Stakes – Not This Time

Trainer Dale Romans calls Not This Time “spooky good” and he has won his last 2 starts by a combined total of nearly 19 lengths. This Giant’s Causeway colt reminds Romans of his half-brother Brody’s Cause but he is a much faster colt at this stage than Brody’s Cause. Not This Time is also Liam’s Map half-brother, the two sharing the same dam (mother) in Miss Macy Sue. His winning time of 1:45.22 in the muddy Iroquois Stakes race (shown below) was a better time than American Pharoah’s time (1:45.78) in the muddy Rebel Stakes as a 3 year old. May I suggest a name change? How About “Not Even Close” because he has annihilated his competition.” His Next Race: The Breeders Cup Juvenile at Santa Anita Park on November 5th.

The Wood Memorial – Theory

When it comes to the pedigree, trainer and jockey combination, Theory is probably the most attractive 2 year-old colt. Trained by Todd Pletcher who won the 2010 Kentucky Derby with Super Saver. Ridden by jockey John Velazquez who won the 2011 Kentucky Derby on Animal Kingdom. Theory won in his debut at Saratoga and produced an 85 Beyer Speed Figure (see race HERE). His sire Gemologist went undefeated in five starts heading into the 2012 Kentucky Derby where he finished 16th. His Next Race: The Futurity Stakes at Belmont Park on October 15th.

Arkansas Derby – Classic Empire

Despite the fact that he made an about-face coming out of the gate in the Hopeful Stakes, I am still really high on this Mark Casse-trained colt who is American Pharoah’s half-brother. He didn’t want to run that day but when he decides to run, watch out. He’s very talented, just needs maturation. I wrote an article on Classic Empire back in July which you can read by clicking HERE. The Arkansas Derby seems like an ideal final prep race for Classic Empire just like it was for his famous half-brother American Pharoah. His Next Race: The Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland on October 8th.

My way, way too early 2017 Kentucky Derby favorite

At this stage of the 2 year-old campaign, two horses have emerged as the best on the West Coast (Klimt) and the best on the East Coast (Not This Time). Right now, I have to give the nod to Not This Time. Why?

He has proven against his peers that he already likes distance and has won impressively at 1 Mile (by 10 lengths) and also at the 1 1/16th Mile distance (by 8 3/4 lengths).
He has proven that he is fast on a dry, fast track and also fast in the slop.
His final fractions in the Iroquois Stakes are much more impressive than Klimt’s as I will illustrate below.

Final Fractions – Not This Time vs. Klimt

To best illustrate the superiority of Not This Time’s fractions compared to Klimt’s, I will convert their times into miles per hour.

In the Del Mar Futurity, Klimt ran the final furlong (1/8th of a mile) of this 7 furlong race in 12.66 seconds as the battled Straight Fire down the stretch. This works out to be average speed of 35.5 mph.

In the 8 1/2 Furlong Iroquois Stakes, Not This Time was in 5th place (3 lengths) behind the leader at the 3/4 pole and the final 2 1/2 furlongs was run in 30.7 seconds. That is an average speed of 36.6 mph in the slop. Allowing 0.16 second per length, Not This Time ran the final 2 1/2 furlongs in 30.22 seconds. This works out to be a speed of 37.2 mph and please note that Not This Time wasn’t pressured at all for the lead.

In Not This Time’s maiden victory at Ellis Park on August 12th (to see the race, click HERE), he ran the final furlong in 11.82 seconds in this 1 mile race. This works out to be an average speed of 38.0 mph. In the final 2 furlongs, his time was 23.33 seconds. This equates to an even better average speed of 38.5 mph.

So when it is “Go-Time”, Not This Time has some seriously good afterburners. He is going to be difficult to catch down the stretch. This is why I have made him my way, way too early 2017 Kentucky Derby favorite. There is a ton of racing left between now and the Kentucky Derby and horses mature and improve by leaps and bounds during this stage. But any horse who beats Not This Time along the way is probably the new Kentucky Derby favorite.

–Michael

Here are the “Win and You’re In” races for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (Sentient Jet):

FrontRunner Stakes at Santa Anita – October 1st on NBC Sports Network
Champagne Stakes at Belmont – October 8th on TVG
Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland – October 8th on NBC

2017 Kentucky Derby Watch List – Klimt leads the pack

Posted on September 8, 2016 by Michael J. Cox

September 8th 2016

It is that time of year again. In less than two weeks the Kentucky Derby prep season officially kicks off with the points-paying Iroquois Stakes at Churchill Downs on Saturday September 17th. Last year around this same time, I made Nyquist my way too early Kentucky Derby favorite (SEE) and he went on to win the Kentucky Derby.

I am not ready to anoint any 2 year-old colt this title yet. There is no colt that really seems to be the near slam dunk like we had in Nyquist last year. And at this point in time, this year’s crop is better than last year’s when looking at times and Beyer Speed Figures. And it also appears to be better than the 2 year-old class that featured Shared Belief and California Chrome. Shared Belief and Chrome’s class took off more towards the end of that prep season. So there is a lot to look forward to in the future.

Right now, the leader of the pack is Klimt. Klimt’s time of 1.21.80 in the Del Mar Futurity was nearly a second and a half faster than Nyquist’s time (1:23.28) in the same race last year. And Klimt’s time was just 0.32 seconds off American Pharoah’s time of 1:21.48 in the 2014 Del Mat Futurity. That is roughly two lengths slower but the Del Mar track had a faster synthetic surface when American Pharoah raced there in 2014.

While I think Klimt is the best 2 year-old colt thus far, this is a very competitive and talented crop. Klimt has one of the best trainers in the world in Bob Baffert. He looks the part of a First Saturday in May contender but I am not completely sold on his pedigree past 9 furlongs.

Evaluating 2 year-olds at this stage is very difficult. Two year olds are like teenagers and can be very inconsistent. A few are late-bloomers that plod along with mediocre results and then boom, the light turns on and they take off when the race distances start increasing.

Most of these horses have only competed in races 5 to 7 furlongs and they may be dominant at these distances but have issues stretching out past a mile. And some of the best pedigree horses can be big flops or never make it to the racetrack. Sometimes the acorn does fall far away from the tree. Then there are horses like California Chrome who didn’t have an impressive pedigree but turned out to be arguably one of the Top 20 thoroughbreds of all-time.

Historically, odds are that the 2017 Kentucky Derby has already raced somewhere at a North America track. So below is my list of horses to keep an eye on in the coming months leading up to the 2016 Breeders’ Cup Sentient Jet Juvenile race on November 5th.

2017 Kentucky Derby Prospects

Klimt – Owned by Kaleem Shah and trained by Bob Baffert–the same combination that produced Bayern and Dortmund. Klimt’s sire Quality Road won the Florida Derby, Met Mile, Donn Handicap, Woodward Stakes. Quality Road suffered two quarter cracks that prevented him from competing in all three legs of the Triple Crown. Next Start: The FrontRunner Stakes at Santa Anita on October 1st.

Career: 4 Starts 3-0-0-1 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 1
Last 3 starts: 1st–>1st–>1st
Sire: Quality Road
Trainer: Bob Baffert (1997, 1998, 2002, 2015 Kentucky Derby Winning Trainer)
Jockey: Rafael Bejarano
Fastest 6 Furlong Time: N/A
Fastest 7 Furlong Time: 1:21.80 – 2016 Del Mar Futurity
Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 94 – 2016 Del Mar Futurity

Straight Fire – He finished 2nd in the Del Mar Futurity behind Klimt. Owned by Jim Rome’s group, Straight Fire is giving Jungle Racing hope that they may have a horse close to Shared Belief’s talent. Straight Fire’s average Beyer Speed Figure in 3 starts is 90. This is the highest average Beyer Speed Figure of any 2 year-old thus far. I am not completely sold on his pedigree. His sire Dominus had moderate success , winning only one Grade 1 race (Dwyer Stakes) before switching to turf. But you’ve got to like what the Desormeaux brothers have done with him thus far. Next Start: The FrontRunner Stakes at Santa Anita on October 1st.

Career: 3 Starts 1-2-0-0 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 0
Last 3 starts: 2nd–>1st–>2nd
Sire: Dominus
Trainer: Keith Desormeaux
Jockey: Kent Desormeaux (1998, 2000 & 2008 Kentucky Derby Winner)
Fastest 6 Furlong Time: N/A
Fastest 7 Furlong Time: 1:22.48 (calculated) – 2016 Del Mar Futurity
Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 98 – Del Mar MSW 8/6/16

Classic Empire – American Pharoah’s half-brother. He dumped his jockey Irad Ortiz Jr shortly after leaving the gate in the Hopeful Stakes. Both the horse and jockey are OK. It was rumored that he was examined after the race and may have been suffering from a case of mild lameness. Next Race: The Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland on October 8th.

Career: 3 Starts 2-0-0-0 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 0
Last 3 starts: 1st–>1st–>DNF
Sire: Pioneerof the Nile (Finished 2nd in 2009 Kentucky Derby)
Trainer: Mark Casse
Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr & Julien Leparoux
Fastest 6 Furlong Time: 1:09.39 – 2016 Bashford Manor Stakes
Fastest 7 Furlong Time: N/A
Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 87 – 2016 Bashford Manor Stakes

Not This Time – At Ellis Park, he produced a sub 1:36 in a mile race in his last start. So he is way ahead of schedule. Dale Romans is very high on this Giant’s Causeway colt who reminds him of his half-brother Brody’s Cause. He is also Liam’s Map half-brother, the two sharing the same dam (mother) in Miss Macy Sue. Next Start: The Iroquois Stakes at Churchill Downs on September 17th.

Career: 2 Starts 1-0-0-0 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 0
Last 3 starts: N/A–>5th–>1st
Sire: Giant’s Causeway
Trainer: Dale Romans
Jockey: Robby Albarado
Fastest 7 Furlong Time: N/A
Fastest 1 Mile Time: 1:35.99 – 2016 Ellis Park MSW 8/12/16

Syndergaard – This Todd Pletcher-trainee has an average Beyer Speed Figure in 2 starts 0f 88. I am concerned that he will like distance. His sire Majesticperfection was a sprinter that didn’t race until he was 4 years old but won 5 out of 6 sprint races. Next Start: Unknown.

Career: 2 Starts 2-0-0-0 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 2
Last 3 starts: N/A–>1st–>1st
Sire: Majesticperfection
Trainer: Todd Pletcher (2010 Kentucky Derby Winning Trainer)
Jockey: John Velazquez (2011 Kentucky Derby Winner)
Fastest 6 Furlong Time: 1:10.05 –2016 Funny Cide Stakes
Fastest 7 Furlong Time: N/A
Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 90 – 2016 Funny Cide Stakes

Three Rules – He has owned the 2 year-old races at Gulfstream Park thus far. His sire Gone Astray never raced further than 9 furlongs and his biggest win was the 2009 Pennsylvania Derby. Next Start: The Florida Sire in Reality Stakes at Gulfstream Park on October 1st.

Career: 4 Starts 4-0-0-0 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 0
Last 3 starts: 1st–>1st–>1st
Sire: Gone Astray
Trainer: Jose Pinchin
Jockey: Cornelio Velasquez
Fastest 6 Furlong Time: 1:09.49 – 2016 Florida Dr Fagar Stakes
Fastest 7 Furlong Time: 1:23.89 – 2016 Florida Sire Affirmed Stakes
Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 94 – 2016 Florida Dr Fagar Stakes

Practical Joke –The Chad Brown-trained winner of the Hopeful Stakes. The son of Into Mischief, I have some pedigree concerns and especially beyond 9 furlongs. Next Start: The Champagne Stakes at Belmont on October 8th.

Career: 2 Starts 2-0-0-0 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 1
Last 3 starts: N/A–>1st–>1st
Sire: Into Mischief
Trainer: Chad Brown
Jockey: Jose Ortiz
Fastest 6 Furlong Time: 1:10.02 – Saratoga MSW 8/6/16
Fastest 7 Furlong Time: 1:23.39 – 2016 Hopeful Stakes
Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 85 – 2016 Hopeful Stakes

Theory – Another promising Todd Pletcher-trained colt from WinStar Farm. Theory won in his debut at Saratoga and produced an 85 Beyer Speed Figure. His sire Gemologist went undefeated in five starts heading into the 2012 Kentucky Derby where he finished 16th. Next Start: Unknown at this time. His last published workout was at Saratoga August 20th.

Career: 1 Starts 1-0-0-0 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 0
Sire: Gemologist (Finished 16th in 2012 Kentucky Derby)
Trainer: Todd Pletcher (2010 Kentucky Derby Winning Trainer)
Jockey: John Velazquez (2011 Kentucky Derby Winner)
Fastest 6 Furlong Time: 1:09.80 – Saratoga MSW 7/30/16
Fastest 7 Furlong Time: N/A
Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 85 – Saratoga MSW 7/30/16

Royal Copy – He lost the Hopeful Stakes by a neck under a hand ride as his jockey Luis Saez who lost his whip near the start. His sire Bodemeister won the Arkansas Derby and finished 2nd in the 2012 Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes. Next Start: Unknown.

Career: 4 Starts 1-2-0-1 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 0
Last 3 starts: 2nd–>1st–>2nd
Sire: Bodemeister (Finished 2nd in 2012 Kentucky Derby)
Trainer: D. Wayne Lukas (1988, 1995, 1996, 1999 Kentucky Derby Winning Trainer)
Jockey: Luis Saez
Fastest 6 Furlong Time: N/A
Fastest 7 Furlong Time: 1:23.43 (calculated) –2016 Hopeful Stakes
Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 84 – 2016 Hopeful Stakes

Blame Will – Another promising D.Wayne Lukas colt. He earned an 88 Beyer Speed Figure in his last start at Saratoga. Before this, he finished 3rd in a turf race. He is a big ticket horse with expectations. He was purchased as a yearling for $600,000. His sire Blame won the 2010 Breeders’ Cup Classic. Next Start: Unknown.

Career: 3 Starts 1-0-1-1 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 0
Last 3 starts: 4th–>3rd–>1st
Sire: Blame (2010 Breeders’ Cup Classic Winner)
Trainer: D. Wayne Lukas (1988, 1995, 1996, 1999 Kentucky Derby Winning Trainer)
Jockey: Luis Saez
Fastest 6 Furlong Time: 1:09.87 – Saratoga MSW 8/20/16
Fastest 7 Furlong Time: N/A
Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 88 – Saratoga MSW 8/20/16

In addition to the above horses, Bob Baffert always seems to produce a top 3 year old every year. And his barn appears to be loaded again this year with other great prospects such as: Big Gray Rocket (Sire: Tapit), Cairo Healer (Sire: Giant’s Causeway) and another half-brother to American Pharoah Irish Freedom (Sire: Pioneerof the Nile). All three of these colts have broke their maiden.

Especially keep an eye on any 2 year-old that jockey Mike Smith chooses to ride. A Hall of Fame jockey, Mike magically seems to find his way on some of the best horses. If he didn’t make the sign of the cross before entering the starting gate each race, I would think he had sold his soul to the devil to end up on Songbird and Arrogate.

Here are the “Win and You’re In” races for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (Sentient Jet):

Iroquois Stakes at Churchill Downs – September 17th on TVG
FrontRunner Stakes at Santa Anita – October 1st on NBC Sports Network
Champagne Stakes at Belmont – October 8th on TVG
Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland – October 8th on NBC

–Michael

Mike's Derby Picks

The Road to the Kentucky Derby and Breeders' Cup Classic

Theory Horse

2016 Sentient Jet Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Post-Positions, Odds and Analysis

2016 Breeders Cup Juvenile Post-Positions and Odds

Looking ahead to the 2016 Breeders’ Cup Sentient Jet Juvenile and early 2017 Kentucky Derby Contenders

2016 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Contenders

My “way, way too early” 2017 Kentucky Derby favorite

Louisiana Derby – Straight Fire

Florida Derby – Three Rules

Santa Anita Derby – Klimt

Blue Grass Stakes – Not This Time

The Wood Memorial – Theory

Arkansas Derby – Classic Empire

My way, way too early 2017 Kentucky Derby favorite

Final Fractions – Not This Time vs. Klimt

2017 Kentucky Derby Watch List – Klimt leads the pack

2017 Kentucky Derby Prospects