Upstart Horse

Whitney Stakes Preview–Another “Win and You’re In” Breeders Cup Classic race. Plus Updated 2016 Breeders’ Cup Classic Contender Rankings

Posted on by Michael J. Cox

challenge

August 3rd 2016 – Updated August 4th 2016

Below are the post-positions for the upcoming Whitney Stakes (aka Whitney Handicap) this Saturday evening at Saratoga. This is another “Win and You’re In” race for the Breeders’ Cup Classic and it will be televised on Fox Sports 2. Frosted will be the race favorite at 4/5 odds. He is well-deserving race favorite after coming off a track record and 123 Beyer Speed Figure performance in the Met Mile back in June.

Effinex will be the next betting favorite at 7/2 odds. However, note that Effinex did not run very well at Saratoga at this same distance (1 1/8th mile) last year in the Woodward Stakes where he finished 4th.

The Todd Pletcher-trained Comfort is probably the next best bet to hit the board. He has won both of his starts in 2016 at 8 1/2 furlongs (1 1/16th mile) and produced a great time of 1:40.76 and 105 Beyer Speed Figure in his last start in the State Dinner Stakes (shown below).

Noble Bird produced a 110 Beyer Speed Figure back in May in the 1 3/16th mile Pimlico Special but finished a disappointing 6th place in his next start–the Met Mile. He also had a poor performance in last year’s Whitney Handicap where he finished in last place. Upstart has been hit or miss this year in 3 starts: 1st in the Razorback Handicap, 5th in the Oaklawn Handicap and 3rd in the Met Mile.

El Kabeir has been less stellar this year with two 7th place finishes and a 4th place finish in his last start–the Stephen Foster Handicap.

The Whitney Stakes – 1 1/8th Mile – Saturday August 6th – Race #10 at Saratoga – Post-Time: 5:18 PM CST. Televised by Fox Sports 2

Post Position/Horse/Weight/Jockey/Trainer/Odds
1. El Kabeir (117) – Santana/Terranova – 20/1
2. Comfort (117) – Velazquez/Pletcher – 8/1
3. Upstart (119) – Ortiz/Violette – 10/1
4. Frosted (124) – Rosario/McLaughlin – 3/5
5. Noble Bird (124) – Leparoux/Casse – 10/1
6. Effinex (124) – Smith/Jerkens – 7/2

My Prediction: I think Frosted can be beaten, he has a 2nd and 3rd place finish at Saratoga in last year’s Jim Dandy and Travers Stakes respectively. Then he had a subpar 5th place finish earlier in the year at Meydan in the Dubai World Cup. Effinex has proven that he can rise up to the occasion and win some big races. But I just can’t bet against Frosted after that Met Mile performance. I really like Effinex, I just don’t think 1 1/8th mile and the Saratoga track is his best combination.

So here is my predicted order of finish: 1st-Frosted, 2nd-Comfort, 3rd-Effinex, 4th-Upstart, 5th-Noble Bird and 6th-El Kabeir.

Updated Top 12 Breeders’ Cup Classic Contenders

Overall, I don’t think the 2016 Kentucky Derby class has any serious threats yet to pull off a win in “The Classic” as a 3 year-old like American Pharoah did last year and Bayern the year before. An interesting stat: 3 year-olds have won the Breeders Cup Classic 9 times in 32 runnings of the race. That is only 28%. I think an older horse will win it this year. But we have a few months more to go and these young horses can make huge strides as the year goes on. Exaggerator appears to the best of this 2016 3 year-old class.

1)  California Chrome – He’s undefeated in four starts in 2016. With his Dubai World Cup win in March, he became the all-time North American leader in race earnings with $12.5 million dollars. In the San Diego Handicap, California Chrome displayed a fight that we have never seen before since he has usually won with ease. He is expected to be an entry in the Breeders’ Cup Classic and the Pegasus World Cup next January. But his next start appears to be another showdown at Del Mar on August 20th in the Pacific Classic vs Dortmund.

Career: 22 Starts 13-3-1-1   Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 5
Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 5 Starts  3-1-1-0
Last 3 starts: 1st–>1st–>1st
Sire: Lucky Pulpit  
Trainer: Art Sherman 
Jockey: Victor Espinosa (2015 Breeders’ Cup Classic Winner)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 1:59.93 (calculated) – 2014 Breeders’ Cup Classic
Best Beyer in 1 1/4 Mile Race: 113 – 2014 Breeders’ Cup Classic
Career Beyer Speed Figure: 113 – 2014 Breeders’ Cup Classic

2) Frosted – He has set two track records thus far as a 4 year old. The first came at Meydan in the 1900 meter Al Maktoum Challenge in February. His most recent came in the 124th running of the Metropolitan Handicap with a time of 1:32.73 that resulted in the highest Beyer Speed Figure (123) of his career and the highest of any thoroughbred thus far in 2016. So now the question becomes, should he be entered in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile or The Classic? He was always viewed as a horse who liked distance and never a “miler” prior to his stunning performance in the Met Mile. His next start will be in this Satuerday’s Whitney Stakes at Saratoga on August 6th.

Career: 16 Starts 5-6-1-2    Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 2
Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 4 Starts  0-0-1-1
Last 3 starts: 1st–>5th–>1st
Sire: Tapit
Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin (2006 Breeders’ Cup Classic Winning Trainer)
Jockey: William Buick
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:02.05 (calculated) – 2015 Travers Stakes
Best Beyer in 1 1/4 Mile Race: 103 – 2014 Breeders’ Cup Classic
Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 123 – 2016 Metropolitan Handicap

3) Melatonin* – The surprise winner of the 2016 Santa Anita Handicap. He proved his Big ‘Cap performance was no fluke by finishing 2nd behind Effinex in the Oaklawn Handicap and completing the Big ‘Cap-Gold Cup Double. His win in the Gold Cup at Santa Anita assures him a spot in this year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic. He is trained by David Hofmans who won the Breeders’ Cup Classic in 1996 with Alphabet Soup. His next start is undetermined since he has battled a persistent illness but it appears that he is being targeted for the Awesome Again Stakes on October 1st.

Career: 13 Starts 5-3-3-1   Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 2
Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 2 Starts  2-0-0-0
Last 3 starts: 1st–>2nd–>1st
Sire: Kodiak Kowboy
Trainer: David Hofmans (1996 Breeders’ Cup Classic Winning Trainer)
Jockey:  Joe Talamo
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time:  1:59.79 – 2016 Gold Cup at Santa Anita
Best Beyer in 1 1/4 Mile Race: 109 – 2016 Gold Cup at Santa Anita
Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 109 – 2016 Gold Cup at Santa Anita

4) Effinex – He finished 2nd to American Pharoah in the 2015 Breeders’ Cup Classic. For 2016, he has a 3rd place finish in the Santa Anita Derby, a win in the Oaklawn Handicap, a head-scratching 6th place finish in the Stephen Foster but bounced back with a big win in the Suburban Handicap (shown below). His next start will be this Saturday’s Whitney Stakes August 6th.

Career: 24 Starts 9-2-4-3   Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 1

Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 7 Starts  3-1-2-1
Last 3 starts: 1st–>6th–>1st
Sire: Mineshaft
Trainer: Jimmy Jerkens 
Jockey: Mike Smith (1997, 2009, 2011 Breeders’ Cup Classic Winner)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:01.04 – 2016 Suburban Handicap
Best Beyer in 1 1/4 Mile Race: 112 – 2015 Breeders’ Cup Classic
 Career Best Beyer Speed: 112 – 2015 Breeders’ Cup Classic

5) Dortmund – Despite Dortmund’s impressive battle with the #1 ranked horse in the world in the San Diego Handicap, he still needs to prove himself beyond 9 furlongs. He has the pedigree for distance. His sire Big Brown won the 2008 Kentucky Derby. However, Dortmund has only raced once at the Classic distance of a miler and a quarter. That came in the 2015 Kentucky Derby where he finished 3rd behind American Pharoah and Firing Line. His next start may be a rematch vs California Chrome in the Pacific Classic at Del Mar August 20th.

Career: 11 Starts 8-1-1-1   Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 2
Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 1 Starts  0-0-1-0
Last 3 starts: 1st—>1st–>2nd
Sire: Big Brown
Trainer: Bob Baffert (2014 & 2015 Breeders’ Cup Classic Winning Trainer)
Jockey: Gary Stevens (2013 Breeders’ Cup Classic Winner)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:03.50 (calculated) –  2015 Kentucky Derby
Best Beyer in 1 1/4 Mile Race: 101 – 2015 Kentucky Derby
Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 110 –2016 San Diego Handicap

6) Exaggerator* – The Slopmeister! With wins in the Santa Anita Derby, the Preakness Stakes and the Haskell Invitational (shown below), Exaggerator has probably moved ahead of Nyquist as the best 3-year-0ld colt in 2016. His future plans appear to be the Travers Stakes on August 27th and then onto the Breeders’ Cup Classic on November 5th with roughly the same layoff as American Pharoah had. I think this horse’s future is very bright and would love to see him entered into a high profile turf race.

Career: 13 Starts 6-3-1-1   Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 3
Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 1 Start  0-1-0-0
Last 3 starts: 1st–>11th–>1st
Sire: Curlin (2007 Breeders’ Cup Classic Winner)
Trainer: Keith Desormeaux
Jockey: Kent Desormeaux 
Fastest 1 1/4th Mile Time: 2:01.51 (calculated) – 2016 Kentucky Derby
Best Beyer in 1 1/4 Mile Race: 101 – 2016 Kentucky Derby
Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 103 – 2016 Santa Anita Derby

7) Beholder – Her lost to Stellar Wind in the Clement L. Hirsch Stakes was surprising as she hadn’t lost a race since June 2014.  Maybe she has slipped a bit from her 2015 form? Her time and Beyer Speed Figure this year was higher in the Clement L. Hirsch than last year. Then she had the stunning performance in the 2015 TVG Pacific Classic (shown below) that put her #1 in many Breeders’ Cup Classic rankings last year.  Her entry into this year’s TVG Pacific Classic is now questionable according to recent reports.

Career: 23 Starts 17-4-0-2   Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 10

Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 1 Starts  1-0-0-0
Last 3 starts: 1st–>1st–>2nd
Sire: Henny Hughes
Trainer: Richard Mandella (2003 Breeders’ Cup Classic Winning Trainer)
Jockey: Gary Stevens (2013 Breeders’ Cup Classic Winner)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 1:59.77 – 2015 Pacific Classic
Best Beyer in 1 1/4 Mile Race: 114 – 2015 Pacific Classic
Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 114 – 2015 Pacific Classic

8) Win the Space – A third place finish behind California Chrome and Dortmund in the San Diego Handicap was probably par for the course but I thought he ran a better in the Gold Cup race at Santa Anita. No word yet on where his next start will come but I imagine it will be at Santa Anita or Del Mar.

Career: 12 Starts 3-1-3-0   Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 0
Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 1 Starts 0-1-0-0
Last 3 starts: 1st–>2nd–>3rd
Sire: Pulpit
Trainer: George Papaprodromou
Jockey: Gary Stevens (2013 Breeders’ Cup Classic Winner)
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time:  2:00.03 (calculated) – 2016 Gold Cup at Santa Anita
Best Beyer in 1 1/4 Mile Race: 107 – 2016 Gold Cup at Santa Anita
Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 107 – 2016 Gold Cup at Santa Anita 

9) Nyquist  – It should be plain as day after the Haskell Invitational that Nyquist just doesn’t like wet, sloppy tracks. The 2016 Kentucky Derby winner needs a big win down the road if he wants to win the 2016 Eclipse 3 Year Old Male of the Year award. 

Career: 10 Starts 8-0-1-1   Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 5
Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 1 Start  1-0-0-0
Last 3 starts: 1st–>3rd–>4th
Sire: Uncle Mo  
Trainer: Doug O’Neill 
Jockey: Mario Gutierrez 
Fastest 1 1/4th Mile Time: 2:01.31 – 2016 Kentucky Derby
Best Beyer in 1 1/4 Mile Race: 103 – 2016 Kentucky Derby
Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 103 – 2016 Kentucky Derby

10) Hoppertunity – He finished 4th in the Gold Cup at Santa Anita. Bob Baffert admitted before the race that he wasn’t sure that he had him completely ready. Previous to this start, he finished 3rd (and just a neck from 2nd) in the Dubai World Cup. He is extremely consistent and probably would finish in the top 4 in any race no matter the talent in the field because he has never finished below 4th place in a graded stakes race. He was pegged to start in either the San Diego or Cougar II Handicap races at Del Mar a few weekends ago but spiked a fever and was scratched from both races.

Career: 20 Starts 5-6-4-4   Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 1
Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 4 Starts  0-1-1-2
Last 3 starts: 1st—>3rd–>4th
Sire: Any Given Saturday
Trainer: Bob Baffert (2014 & 2015 Breeders’ Cup Classic Winning Trainer)
Jockey: Flavien Prat
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:00.16 (calculated) – 2016 Gold Cup at Santa Anita 
Best Beyer in 1 1/4 Mile Race: 104 – 2016 Gold Cup at Santa Anita
Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 108 – 2016 San Antonio Stakes

11) Bradester* – With his most recent win in the Monmouth Cup, Bradester now has won three races in three starts in 2016. Although he has never raced beyond 1 1/8th mile, Bradester qualified for the Breeders’ Cup Classic with his win in the Stephen Foster Handicap. He competed in the 2015 Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile and had a disappointing 9th place finish. 6 of his career 10 wins have come at the 1 1/16th mile distance. So one wonders if he is better suited to for the 1 1/8th mile Pegasus World Cup than the Breeders’ Cup Classic.

Career: 24 Starts 10-6-2-1  Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 1
Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 0 Starts  0-0-0-0
Last 3 starts: 1st—>1st–>1st
Sire: Lion Heart
Trainer: Eddie Kenneally
Jockey: Joe Bravo
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: N/A 
Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 109 – 2015 Salvator Mile Stakes

12) Hard Aces – Still competitive as a 6 year-old, he won the Cougar II Handicap (shown below) a couple of weekends ago. He finished 6th in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic after qualifying with a win in the Gold Cup at Santa Anita. He is a closer and performs best when the opening fractions are fast. And he is running well this year at Santa Anita–producing a 2nd place finish in both the Santa Anita Handicap and California Stakes to go with his most recent 3rd place finish in the Gold Cup race. The 105 Beyer he received in the Gold Cup was a career best. He will throw a clunker in along the way and is not an early Vegas favorite to win The Classic but he has “hit the board” potential if the race sets up well for his closing style.

Career: 33 Starts 9-6-5-3  Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 1
Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 6 Starts  1-1-1-1
Last 3 starts: 2nd–>3rd–>1st
Sire: Hard Spun
Trainer: John Sadler 
Jockey: Mario Pino
Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:00.15 (calculated) – 2016 Gold Cup at Santa Anita 
Best Beyer in 1 1/4 Mile Race: 105 – 2016 Gold Cup at Santa Anita
Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 105 – 2016 Gold Cup at Santa Anita

Below are the key upcoming races with “Win and You’re In” Breeders’ Cup Classic races in bold font:

August 6th – Whitney Handicap – Saratoga – 1 1/4 Mile – Purse: $1,250,000 – Fox Sports 2
August 20th – Pacific Classic – Del Mar – 1 1/4 Mile – Purse: $1,000,000 – TVG
August 27th – Travers Stakes* – Saratoga – 1 1/4 Mile – Purse: $1,250,000 – NBC
September 3rd – Woodward Stakes – Saratoga – 1 1/8 Mile – Purse: $600,000 – NBCSN
October 1st – Awesome Again Stakes – Santa Anita – 1 1/8 Mile – Purse: $300,000 – NBCSN
October 8th – Jockey Gold Cup – Belmont Park – 1 1/4 Mile – Purse: $1,000,000 – NBC
*****

November 5th – Breeders’ Cup Classic – Santa Anita  – 1 1/4 Mile – Purse: $6,000,000 – NBC

* – 3 year olds only

–Michael

Arkansas Derby and Oaklawn Handicap Previews

Posted on by Michael J. Cox

April 16th 2016

Today will be a very interesting day on several levels at Oaklawn Park. First, the $1,000,000 Arkansas Derby will catapult at least one horse into the Kentucky Derby field. Secondly, the $750,000 Oaklawn Handicap will be be an intriguing race in the older horse division and as a future reference for this year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic contender watch.

The Oaklawn Handicap will be a rematch of the Santa Anita Handicap race winner Melatonin and 3rd place finisher Effinex who was the race favorite for that race. Point Piper is also entered in the Oaklawn Handicap and he finished 5th in the Santa Anita Handicap. Thrown into this mix is the Razorback Stakes winner Upstart and Todd Pletcher’s Gulfstream Park Handicap winner Blofeld.

As for the Arkansas Derby, it is interesting to note that three out of the last four race Arky Derby winners have gone on to finish in the top 3 of the Kentucky Derby (2015 American Pharoah- 1st, 2014 Danza – 3rd, 2012 Bodemeister 2nd).

Bob Baffert’s Cupid is the morning line favorite at 2/1 odds in the Arkansas Derby. However, some background info on the Derby prep races at Oaklawn Park this year–the race favorite has failed to win every race. Here is how the race favorites have fared. In the Smarty Jones Stakes, Toews On Ice finished 6th. In the Southwest Stakes, Collected finished 4th. In the Rebel Stakes, Suddenbreakingnews finished 5th. 

I think both of these races are wide open and will be exciting races to watch. Below are post position draws and morning line odds.

Oaklawn Handicap – 1 1/8th Mile Race #9 at Oaklawn Park – Post-Time: 5:09 PM CST

Post Position/Horse/Weight/Jockey/Trainer/Odds
1. Blofeld (116) – Velazquez/Pletcher 4-1
2. Melatonin (119) – Talamo/Hofmans 7-2
3. Point Piper (113) – Garcia/Hollendorfer 15-1
4. Financial Modeling (113) – Ortiz/Cox 8-1
5. Carve (115) – Bejarano/Asmussen 15-1
6. Upstart (119) – Bravo/Violette 7/2
7. Domain’s Rap (114) – Vazquez/Villafranco 12-1
8. Effinex (121) – Smith/Jerkens 2-1

Commentary: The most compelling story line here is Melatonin, the surprise winner of the Santa Anita Handicap. Was his win in the prestigious Santa Anita Handicap a fluke or is Melatonin the real deal? I have no magic handicapping advice for this one but a Show bet on Effinex should be a safe bet. Blofeld was given 4/1 morning line odds but he has never raced further than 1 mile. I like a 2,6,8 Boxed Trifecta and Upstart for the surprise win.

Upstart was a third place finisher in the 1 1/8th mile Haskell Invitational last year behind American Pharoah and Keen Ice. Jockey Joe Bravo seems to have some magic at this track haven ridden 41-1 odds Danza to a 2014 Arkansas Derby victory. And he is coming off a win on Upstart in the Razorback Handicap.

Arkansas Derby – 1 1/8th Mile Race #11 at Oaklawn Park – Post Time: 6:18 PM CST

Post Position/Horse/Jockey/Trainer/Odds
1. Discreetness – Court/Fires 20-1
2. Cutacorner – Birzer/Van Berg 50-1
3. Creator – Santana Jr./Asmussen 10-1
4. Suddenbreakingnews – Quinonez/Von Hemel 5-1
5. American Pioneer – Bejarano/Catalano 8-1
6. Unbridled Outlaw – Lanerie/Romans 10-1
7. Dazzling Gem – Talamo/Cox 12-1
8. Whitmore – Ortiz Jr./Moquett 9-2
9. Luna de Loco – Bravo/Asmussen 30-1
10. Cupid – Garcia/Baffert 2-1
11. Gray Sky – Vazquez/Lukas 30-1
12. Gettysburg – Velazquez/Pletcher 6-1

Commentary: I like Cupid but if immediate history holds form at Oaklawn as I noted earlier, the race favorite doesn’t win. If anyone is going to beat Cupid it will be one of these three horses: Whitmore, Suddenbreakingnews and Gettysburg. There are no concerns about Gettysburg going the distance as he finished 2nd in the 1 1/8th Sunland Park Festival of Racing back in March. Suddenbreakingnews is a closer. He won the Southwest Stakes but finished a disappointing 5th in the Rebel Stakes. He should finish higher than 5th with an extra furlong to work his closer magic.

Whitmore finished 2nd in the Southwest and Rebel Stakes. He has sort of been the bridesmaid at Oaklawn this year. He did press Cupid for the win in the Rebel. Will it be his turn to visit victory lane? I am not sure. I like a 4-10 (Suddenbreakingnews, Cupid) Exacta Box in this one.

–Michael

Pennsylvania Derby Preview

Posted on by Michael J. Cox

Scott Serio / AP Images

This Saturday September 19th at PARX is the Pennsylvania Derby. This 1 1/8 mile race for 3-year-olds carries a $1,000,000 purse and always attracts some top talent. Last year’s winner Bayern beat California Chrome and went on to win the Breeders’ Cup Classic. The 2013’s winner, Will Take Charge, went on to win American Champion Three-Year-Old honors.

Post time is 4:45 PM CST. Below are post-positions and odds.

Post Position/Weight/Jockey/Odds

1. War Story (117) Parker 20-1
2. Island Town (122) Hernandez Jr. 10-1
3. Frosted (124) Rosario 5-2 
4. Iron Fist (117) Smith 8-1
5. Madefromlucky (122) Velazquez 4-1  
6. Gimme Da Lute (122) Garcia 5-1    Scratched
7. Tommy Macho (117) Castellano 10-1
8. Battle Midway (117) Gryder 20-1
9. Upstart (122) Ortiz 9-2 
10. Mr. Z (119) Saez 10-1

Overall, my feeling was, before Gimmedalute was scratched, that race will come down to a battle between Frosted and Gimme Da Lute. I had previously felt that Frosted was not a great horse at 1 1/8 mile distances and was better suited for races 1 1/4 mile or greater. However, Frosted proved to me in the Travers Stakes that he could hang with American Pharoah through 9 furlongs.

Upstart and Madefromlucky are two very good horses that are capable of winning this race. I have no Superfecta recommendations but I would suggest a $25 Exacta keying Frosted (3) on top to win with two horses (5-Madefromlucky, 9-Upstart) because which Madefromlucky will show up? The one who won the Peter Pan Stakes with a time of 1:48.36? Or the one who won his last race, the West Virginia Derby with a pedestrian time of 1:51.40? Both of these races were 1 1/8 mile. The $25 exacta bet keying Frosted to win with 2 horses would cost $50.

–Michael

2015 Travers Stakes Preview: Should American Pharoah be on upset alert?

Posted on by Michael J. Cox

Today at 4:46 PM CST on NBC, American Pharoah gets a chance to extend his 8 race winning streak in the Travers Stakes at Saratoga. This 1 1/4 mile race has a $1.6 million dollar purse and will be a good gauge for the Breeders’ Cup Classic as it is run at the same 1 1/4 mile distance. Below are post positions, jockey/trainer and morning line odds:

1. Upstart – Ortiz Jr./Violette – 15-1
2. American Pharoah – Espinoza/Baffert – 1-5
3. Mid Ocean – Franco/Weaver – 50-1
4. Texas Red – Desormeaux/Desormeaux – 8-1
5. Frammento – Ortiz/Zito – 30-1
6. Frosted – Rosario/McLaughlin – 6-1
7. Keen Ice – Castellano/Romans – 12-1
8. Tale of Verve – Stevens/Stewart – 30-1
9. King of New York – Leparoux/McPeek – 50-1
10. Smart Transition – Velazquez/Shirreffs – 20-1

Saratoga has a history of producing upsets and many felt Bob Baffert should skip the Travers and run American Pharoah in the Woodward Stakes next weekend. As a result, a few members of the horse racing media (Kevin Cox, Mike Watchmaker and Michelle Yu) are calling for an upset today and predicting Texas Red as the race winner. My opinion? It is not going to happen. American Pharoah will prevail again.

Texas Red was my early Kentucky Derby favorite before his injury back in February. As a 2-year-old, he demonstrated in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile race (shown below) the ability as a closer that would make him a serious threat in a 1 1/4 mile race like the Kentucky Derby and especially with fast opening fractions. But he has had to slowly work his way back from injury and I just don’t think his workout times and two previous post-injury races (Dwyer Stakes and Jim Dandy Stakes) have given me any cause for upset alarm today.

Texas Red beat Frosted in the Jim Dandy Stakes (video click HERE) but this was a 1 1/8 mile race and like Frosted’s long strides to edge out Texas Red in a 1 1/4 mile race.

My predicted finishing order (I think the Saratoga track handicapper has got this one right): 1) American Pharoah, 2) Frosted, 3) Texas Red, 4) Keen Ice, 5) Upstart, 6) Smart Transition, 7) Tale of Verve, 8) Frammento, 9) King of New York, 10) Mid Ocean

–Michael

American Pharoah Returns! The Jim Dandy Stakes and Haskell Invitational Preview

Posted on by Michael J. Cox

This coming weekend, there are two key races on the road to the Breeders’ Cup Classic. Saturday August 1st at Saratoga will be the Jim Dandy Stakes with a handful of familiar names from the Kentucky Derby trail. On Sunday August 2nd, American Pharoah makes his first start since winning the Triple Crown in The William Hill Haskell Invitational at Monmouth Park. Both races are 1 1/8th mile.

The Jim Dandy Stakes carries a $600,000 purse and has three notable entries in Frosted (2/1), Upstart (3/1) and Texas Red (7/2). Also entered are: Competitive Edge (8/1), Frammento (20/1), Tekton (10/1) and a horse on the rise named Japan (10/1). However, please note that Upstart and Competitive Edge are cross-entered in the Haskell Invitational, so the field could have as few as five horses. Post time will be 5:13 PM CST and the race will be televised on TVG.

Overall, this race is wide-open and I don’t feel good enough about this one to give betting advice. Texas Red has been rehabbing from an injury suffered earlier in the year and he is slowly working his way back to form. Upstart hasn’t raced since the Kentucky Derby. Frosted is best suited for distance races. Too many unknowns, so this is a race to watch but not one to bet on. Last year a $2 Superfecta in a 5 horse field only paid out a measly $69.

The Haskell Invitational carries a $1,750,000 dollar purse and is part of the Breeders’ Cup Classic “Win and You’re In” program. The race winner is assured one of the 14 spots in the $5,000,000 Breeders’ Cup Classic. The race will be aired on NBC and will have an approximate post time of 4:42 PM CST.

American Pharoah will have six challengers and here are the post positions and Morning Line Odds:

1. Upstart – Joe Bravo – 6-1
2. Competitive Edge – Mike Smith 8-1
3. Nonna’s Boy – SCRATCHED
4. American Pharoah – Victor Espinoza – 1-5
5. Mr. Jordan – Paco Lopez – 15-1
6. Keen Ice – Kent Desormeaux – 12-1
7. Top Clearance – Javier Castellano – 30-1
8. Dontbetwithbruno – TBA –  30-1

Overall, I expect American Pharoah to wire this field. Todd Pletcher has three horses entered: Competitive Edge, Nonna’s Boy and Dontbetwithbruno. (Update: Nonna’s Boy was scratched). I would recommend placing Superfectas keying American Pharoah to win. So I would recommend placing four 10 cent superfectas keying American Pharoah to win: 4 with ALL, with ALL, with ALL. Each would cost $12. And a $1 Superfecta Part Wheel: 4 with 1,5,6, with 1,2,5,6,8, with ALL. This bet would cost $48. Total bet $96. Put $4 on American Pharoah to Place and there is $100.

–Michael

My Sensational Seven 2015 Kentucky Derby Contenders

Posted on by Michael J. Cox

American Pharoah #4 in the Rebel stakes. Photo: Eclipse Sportswire

Below is an updated ranking on my top seven Kentucky Derby contenders. As you can see, American Pharoah moved up my list due to his Rebel Stakes performance that answered a lot of questions as to how he would fare coming a long layoff. Firing Line returns to my top seven with his landslide victory in the Sunland Derby where he set a track record. He was always a talented colt, just needed to race where didn’t have to beat Dortmund.

Texas Red has been removed from my list as he is officially off the Derby trail. The Desormeaux brothers don’t feel that they have enough lead time to prep for the Kentucky Derby. Materiality is new addition to my list. His jockey has been John Velazquez but Velazquez will likely be Carpe Diem’s rider in the Kentucky Derby. So Materiality could be Kent Desormeaux’s mount in place of Texas Red for the Kentucky Derby. That is, if he can secure the necessary Derby points in the Florida Derby. He is the half brother to Texas Red as they shared the same sire (Afleet Alex).

1) Dortmund (Kentucky Bred- Won in 1st start) – Derby Points: 70
Sire: Big Brown – 2008 Kentucky Derby & Preakness Stakes Winner
Jockey: Martin Garcia

5 Starts, 5 Wins, Win Pct: 100%, Graded Stakes Win Pct: 100%
Last Three Starts: 1st (91 Beyer), 1st (103 Beyer), 1st (104 Beyer)
Average Beyer Speed Figure of Last Two Starts:  103.5
Fastest 1 1/16 Mile Time-: 1:40.86 at Los Alamitos 12/20/14
Next Race: Santa Anita Derby – April 4th
 Dortmund’s Equibase Profile

2) American Pharoah (Kentucky Bred – Won in 2nd start) – Derby Points: 60
Sire: Pioneerof the Nile – Finished 2nd in 2009 Kentucky Derby
Jockey: Victor Espinoza

4 Starts, 3 Wins, Win Pct: 75%, Graded Stakes Win Pct: 100%
Last Three Starts: 1st (101 Beyer), 1st (101 Beyer), 1st (100 Beyer)
Average Beyer Speed Figure of Last Two Starts: 100.5
Fastest 1 1/16th Mile Time: 1:41.95 at Santa Anita Park 9/27/14
Next Race: Arkansas Derby – April 11th
 American Pharoah’s Equibase Profile

3) Firing Line (Kentucky Bred – Won in 2nd start) – Derby Points: 58
Sire: Line of David – Won 2010 Arkansas Derby, finished 18th in 2010 Kentucky Derby
Jockey: Gary Stevens

5 Starts, 2 Wins, Win Pct: 40%, Graded Stakes Win Pct: 33%
Last Three Starts: 2nd (91 Beyer), 2nd (104 Beyer), 1st (97 Beyer)
Average Beyer Speed Figure of Last Two Starts: 100.5
Fastest 1 1/16th Mile Time: 1:40.88 (calculated) at Los Alamitos 12/20/14
Fastest 1 1/8th Mile Time: 1:47.39 (track record) at Sunland Park 3/22/15
Next Race: Kentucky Derby – May 2nd
Firing Line’s Equibase Profile

4) Upstart (New York Bred – Won in 1st start) – Derby Points: 36
Sire: Flatter whose sire was A.P. Indy – 1992 Belmont Stakes & Breeders’ Cup Classic
Jockey: Jose Ortiz

6 Starts, 3 Wins, Win Pct: 50%, Graded Stakes Win Pct: 25%
Last Three Starts: 3rd (93 Beyer), 1st (105* Beyer), 2nd–DQ from 1st (95 Beyer)
Average Beyer Speed Figure of Last Two Starts: 100
Fastest 1 1/16th Mile Time: 1:42.96 (calculated) at Santa Anita Park 11/1/14
Next Race: Florida Derby – March 28th
*Some references list this Beyer Speed figure at 106, I chose the lower
Upstart’s Equibase Profile

5) Carpe Diem (Kentucky Bred – Won in 1st start) – Derby Points: 64
Sire: Giant’s Causeway – Finished 2nd in the 2000 Breeders’ Cup Classic
Jockey: John Velazquez

4 Starts, 3 Wins, Win Pct: 75%, Graded Stakes Win Pct: 67%
Last Three Starts: 1st (91 Beyer), 2nd (93 Beyer), 1st (98 Beyer)
Average Beyer Speed Figure of Last Two Starts: 95.5
Fastest 1 1/16th Mile Time: 1:42.95 (calculated) at Santa Anita Park 11/1/14
Next Race: Blue Grass Stakes – April 11th
Carpe Diem’s Equibase Profile

6) Far From Over (Kentucky Bred – Won in 1st start) – Derby Points: 10
Sire: Blame – 2010 Breeders’ Cup Classic Winner
Jockey: Manuel Franco

2 Starts, 2 Wins, Win Pct: 100%, Graded Stakes Win Pct: 100%
Last Three Starts: 1st (78 Beyer), 1st (96 Beyer)
Average Beyer Speed Figure of Last Two Starts: 82
Fastest 1 1/16th Mile Time: 1:43.93 at Aqueduct 2/7/15
Next Race: Wood Memorial – April 4th
Far From Over’s Equibase Profile

7) Materiality (Kentucky Bred – Won in 1st start) – Derby Points: 0
Sire: Afleet Alex – 2005 Preakness Stakes & Belmont Stakes Winner
Jockey: Kent Desormeaux?

2 Starts, 2 Wins, Win Pct: 100%, Graded Stakes Win Pct: 100%
Last Three Starts: 1st (87 Beyer), 1st (104 Beyer)
Average Beyer Speed Figure of Last Two Starts: 95.5
Fastest 1 1/16th Mile Time: n/a
Fastest 1 1/8th Mile Time: 1:49.32 at Gulfstream Park 3/6/15
Next Race: Florida Derby – March 28th
Materiality’s Equibase Profile

Below is a ranking of the average Beyer Speed Figures of my top seven horses last two starts. Ties are broken by the higher speed in the last start.

Ranking By Average Beyer Speed Figures of Last Two Starts(Last Start):
1) Dortmund 103.5 (104)
2) American Pharoah 100.5 (100)
3) Firing Line 100.5 (97)
4) Upstart 100 (95)
5) Materiality 95.5 (104)
6) Carpe Diem  95.5 (98)
7) Far From Over  82 (96)

–Michael

American Pharoah Back In Action & My Updated Top 6 Kentucky Derby Contenders

Posted on by Michael J. Cox

American Pharoah (Benoit Photo)

The 2014 Eclipse 2 Year-Old Horse of the Year will be back in action this Saturday March 14th at Oaklawn Park in the Rebel Stakes (Race #10). Post Time is 6:06 PM CST. American Pharoah is the Morning Line favorite at 1/2 odds. In this seven horse field, his toughest competition will come from Post #1 The Truth or Else (4/1 Odds) ridden by Calvin Borel, the Steve Asmussen-trained Bold Conquest (8/1 Odds) and Todd Pletcher’s other entry–Madefromlucky (6/1 Odds).

As with any horse coming off a long layoff, I expect bettors to push American Pharoah’s odds higher and closer to 1/1. If I were betting this weekend, I probably would steer clear from betting on this race. However, if you want my recommendation, I would probably place a $10 1-4 Boxed Exacta on American Pharoah-The Truth or Else and hope that Calvin Borel does his rail magic. I would also consider a $1 1-2-4 Boxed Trifecta (The Truth or Elise, Madefromluck and American Pharoah). If American Pharoah’s odds push closer to 2-1, then I might lay down another $20 Win bet on him.

Below is an updated list on my Top Six Kentucky Derby contenders.

1) Dortmund (Kentucky Bred- Won in 1st start) – Derby Points: 70
Sire: Big Brown – 2008 Kentucky Derby & Preakness Stakes Winner

5 Starts, 5 Wins, Win Pct: 100%, Graded Stakes Win Pct: 100%
Last Three Starts: 1st (91 Beyer), 1st (103 Beyer), 1st (104 Beyer)
Average Beyer Speed Figure of Last Two Starts:  103.5
Fastest 1 1/16 Mile Time-: 1:40.86 at Los Alamitos 12/20/14
Next Race: Santa Anita Derby – April 4th
 Dortmund’s Equibase Profile

2) Upstart (New York Bred – Won in 1st start) – Derby Points: 36
Sire: Flatter whose sire was A.P. Indy – 1992 Belmont Stakes & Breeders’ Cup Classic

6 Starts, 3 Wins, Win Pct: 50%, Graded Stakes Win Pct: 25%
Last Three Starts: 3rd (93 Beyer), 1st (105 Beyer), 2nd–DQ from 1st (95 Beyer)
Average Beyer Speed Figure of Last Two Starts: 100
Fastest 1 1/16th Mile Time: 1:42.96 (calculated) at Santa Anita Park 11/1/14
Next Race: Florida Derby – March 28th
Upstart’s Equibase Profile

3) Texas Red  (Kentucky Bred – Won in 3rd start) – Derby Points: 12
Sire: Afleet Alex – 2005 Preakness Stakes & Belmont Stakes Winner

6 Starts, 2 Wins, Win Pct: 33%, Graded Stakes Win Pct: 33%
Last Three Starts:  3rd (93 Beyer), 1st (104 Beyer), 2nd (90 Beyer)
Average Beyer Speed Figure of Last Two Starts: 97
Fastest 1 1/16th Mile Time: 1:41.91 at Santa Anita Park 11/1/14
Next Race: Santa Anita Derby – April 4th or Arkansas Derby – April 11th
 Texas Red’s Equibase Profile

4) American Pharoah (Kentucky Bred – Won in 2nd start) – Derby Points: 10
Sire: Pioneerof the Nile – Finished 2nd in 2009 Kentucky Derby

3 Starts, 2 Wins, Win Pct: 67%, Graded Stakes Win Pct: 100%
Last Three Starts: 5th, 1st (101 Beyer), 1st (101 Beyer)
Average Beyer Speed Figure of Last Two Starts: 101
Fastest 1 1/16th Mile Time: 1:41.95 at Santa Anita Park 9/27/14
Next Race: Rebel Stakes – March 14th
 American Pharoah’s Equibase Profile

5) Carpe Diem (Kentucky Bred – Won in 1st start) – Derby Points: 64
Sire: Giant’s Causeway – Finished 2nd in the 2000 Breeders’ Cup Classic

Kentucky Derby Future Wager Final Odds: Pool #1: 15-1, Pool #2: 12-1
Current Morning Line Odds: 12-1

4 Starts, 3 Wins, Win Pct: 75%, Graded Stakes Win Pct: 67%
Last Three Starts: 1st (91 Beyer), 2nd (93 Beyer), 1st (98 Beyer)
Average Beyer Speed Figure of Last Two Starts: 95.5
Fastest 1 1/16th Mile Time: 1:42.95 (calculated) at Santa Anita Park 11/1/14
Next Race: Blue Grass Stakes – April 11th
Carpe Diem’s Equibase Profile

6) Far From Over (Kentucky Bred – Won in 1st start) – Derby Points: 10
Sire: Blame – 2010 Breeders’ Cup Classic Winner

2 Starts, 2 Wins, Win Pct: 100%, Graded Stakes Win Pct: 100%
Last Three Starts: 1st (78 Beyer), 1st (96 Beyer)
Average Beyer Speed Figure of Last Two Starts: 82
Fastest 1 1/16th Mile Time: 1:43.93 at Aqueduct 2/7/15
Next Race: Wood Memorial – April 4th
Far From Over’s Equibase Profile

And another horse to keep an eye on from the Todd Pletcher stable–Materiality who posted a 104 Beyer Speed Figure in a 1 1/8th mile race at Gulfstream Park on March 6th (shown below).

Materiality (Kentucky Bred – Won in 1st start) – Derby Points: 0
Sire: Afleet Alex – 2005 Preakness Stakes & Belmont Stakes Winner

2 Starts, 2 Wins, Win Pct: 100%, Graded Stakes Win Pct: 100%
Last Three Starts: 1st (87 Beyer), 1st (104 Beyer)
Average Beyer Speed Figure of Last Two Starts: 95.5
Fastest 1 1/16th Mile Time: n/a
Next Race: Unknown
Materiality’s Equibase Profile

Below is a ranking of the average Beyer Speed Figures of my top six horses last two starts. Ties are broken by the higher speed in the last start. Materiality was added to the list for comparison purposes.

Ranking By Average Beyer Speed Figures of Last Two Starts:
1) Dortmund 103.5
2) American Pharoah 101
3) Upstart 100
4) Texas Red  97
5) Materiality 95.5
6) Carpe Diem  95.5
7) Far From Over  82

–Michael

Eight Great Horses To Consider For Your Kentucky Derby Future Wagers Pool #3

Posted on by Michael J. Cox

With the Kentucky Future Wagers Pool #3 coming up February 27th, below are eight horses to consider for your future wager. But first, what does a Kentucky Derby winner usually look like on paper?

Profiling the Kentucky Derby Winner

The profile of a typical Kentucky Derby winner is that 75.7% are Kentucky bred. California Chrome was the exception and not the norm last year being a California bred horse. California has produced only four Kentucky Derby winners with the last (before California Chrome) being Decidedly who won in 1962.  Florida is the next best state at producing Kentucky Derby winners with six.

Another stat to consider is that the roughly 70% of Kentucky Derby winners won their first race in their first or second start–which California Chrome accomplished. As long as a horse wins in his first four starts and gets hot in February and March, I am fine with it. Also, probably a more important stat, thirteen out of the last fifteen Kentucky Derby winners broke their maiden by December 1st of their 2-year-old campaign. All the horses in my top seven won their first race by December 1st except for Far From Over who won on December 12th.

Note: blue bold fonts are linked to race videos or Equibase references

1) Dortmund (Kentucky Bred- Won in 1st start) – Derby Points: 20
Sire: Big Brown – 2008 Kentucky Derby & Preakness Stakes Winner

Kentucky Derby Future Wager Final Odds: Pool #1: 9-1, Pool #2: 10-1
Current Morning Line Odds: 8-1

4 Starts, 4 Wins, Win Pct: 100%, Graded Stakes Win Pct: 100%
Last Three Starts: 1st (97 Beyer), 1st (91 Beyer), 1st (103 Beyer)
Average Beyer Speed Figure of Last Two Starts:  97
Fastest 1 1/16 Mile Time-: 1:40.86 at Los Alamitos 12/20/14
Next Race: San Felipe Stakes – March 7th or Santa Anita Derby – April 4th
 Dortmund’s Equibase Profile

2) Texas Red  (Kentucky Bred – Won in 3rd start) – Derby Points: 12
Sire: Afleet Alex – 2005 Preakness Stakes & Belmont Stakes Winner

Kentucky Derby Future Wager Final Odds: Pool #1: 14-1, Pool #2: 9-1
Current Morning Line Odds: 12-1

6 Starts, 2 Wins, Win Pct: 33%, Graded Stakes Win Pct: 33%
Last Three Starts:  3rd (93 Beyer), 1st (104 Beyer), 2nd (90 Beyer)
Average Beyer Speed Figure of Last Two Starts: 97
Fastest 1 1/16th Mile Time: 1:41.91 at Santa Anita Park 11/1/14
Next Race: Santa Anita Derby – April 4th or Arkansas Derby – April 11th
 Texas Red’s Equibase Profile

3) American Pharoah (Kentucky Bred – Won in 2nd start) – Derby Points: 10
Sire: Pioneerof the Nile – Finished 2nd in 2009 Kentucky Derby

Kentucky Derby Future Wager Final Odds: Pool #1: 12-1, Pool #2: 10-1
Current Morning Line Odds: 8-1

3 Starts, 2 Wins, Win Pct: 67%, Graded Stakes Win Pct: 100%
Last Three Starts: 5th, 1st (101 Beyer), 1st (101 Beyer)
Average Beyer Speed Figure of Last Two Starts: 101
Fastest 1 1/16th Mile Time: 1:41.95 at Santa Anita Park 9/27/14
Next Race: Rebel Stakes – March 14th
 American Pharoah’s Equibase Profile

4) Upstart (New York Bred – Won in 1st start) – Derby Points: 36
Sire: Flatter whose sire was A.P. Indy – 1992 Belmont Stakes & Breeders’ Cup Classic

Kentucky Derby Future Wager Final Odds: Pool #1: 53-1, Pool #2: 12-1
Current Morning Line Odds: 15-1

6 Starts, 3 Wins, Win Pct: 50%, Graded Stakes Win Pct: 25%
Last Three Starts: 3rd (93 Beyer), 1st (105 Beyer), 2nd–DQ from 1st (95 Beyer)
Average Beyer Speed Figure of Last Two Starts: 100
Fastest 1 1/16th Mile Time: 1:42.96 (calculated) at Santa Anita Park 11/1/14
Next Race: Florida Derby – March 28th
Upstart’s Equibase Profile

5) Carpe Diem (Kentucky Bred – Won in 1st start) – Derby Points: 14
Sire: Giant’s Causeway – Finished 2nd in the 2000 Breeders’ Cup Classic

Kentucky Derby Future Wager Final Odds: Pool #1: 15-1, Pool #2: 12-1
Current Morning Line Odds: 12-1

3 Starts, 2 Wins, Win Pct: 67%, Graded Stakes Win Pct: 50%
Last Three Starts: 1st, 1st (91 Beyer), 2nd (93 Beyer)
Average Beyer Speed Figure of Last Two Starts: 92
Fastest 1 1/16th Mile Time: 1:42.95 (calculated) at Santa Anita Park 11/1/14
Next Race: Tampa Bay Derby – March 7th
Carpe Diem’s Equibase Profile

6) Far From Over (Kentucky Bred – Won in 1st start) – Derby Points: 10
Sire: Blame – 2010 Breeders’ Cup Classic Winner

Kentucky Derby Future Wager Final Odds: Unlisted in both Pools
Current Morning Line Odds: 15-1

2 Starts, 2 Wins, Win Pct: 100%, Graded Stakes Win Pct: 100%
Last Three Starts: 1st (78 Beyer), 1st (96 Beyer)
Average Beyer Speed Figure of Last Two Starts: 82
Fastest 1 1/16th Mile Time: 1:43.93 at Aqueduct 2/7/15
Next Race: Gotham Stakes – March 7th
Far From Over’s Equibase Profile

7) International Star (New York Bred – Won in 1st Start) – Derby Points: 71
Sire: Fusaichi Pegasus – 2000 Kentucky Derby Winner

Kentucky Derby Future Wager Final Odds: Pool #1: Unlisted, Pool #2: 40-1
Current Morning Line Odds: 20-1

8 Starts, 4 Wins, Win Pct: 50%, Graded Stakes Win Pct: 50%
Last Three Starts: 4th, 1st (89 Beyer), 1st (93 Beyer)
Average Beyer Speed Figure of Last Two Starts: 91
Fastest 1 1/16th Mile Time: 1:43.82 at The Fairgrounds 2/21/15
Next Race: Louisiana Derby – March 28th
International Star’s Equibase Profile 

8) Ocho Ocho Ocho (Kentucky Bred – Won in 1st Start) – Derby Points: 10
Sire: Street Sense – 2007 Kentucky Derby Winner

Kentucky Derby Future Wager Final Odds: Pool #1: 29-1, Pool #2: 26-1
Current Morning Line Odds: 20-1

3 Starts, 3 Wins, Win Pct: 100%, Graded Stakes Win Pct: 100%
Last Three Starts: 1st (80 Beyer), 1st (83 Beyer), 1st (90 Beyer)
Average Beyer Speed Figure of Last Two Starts: 86.5
Fastest 1 1/16th Mile Time: 1:45.47 at Delta Downs 11/22/14
Next Race: San Felipe Stakes – March 7th
Ocho Ocho Ocho’s Equibase Profile 

Overall, I felt confident that the 2015 Kentucky Derby winner was listed in Pool #2, but I am 100% confident that he is in this pool. I would not recommend placing any bets on horses whose Morning Line Odds are greater than 30-1. This means do not waste your money on these 50-1 horses: Bolo, Danzig Moon, Keen Ice and Mr. Z.

Also, Khozan ended with 25-1 final odds in Pool #2 and he is coming off a win in his last start in a one mile race at Gulfstream. He is listed as 15-1 Morning Line Odds. Don’t buy into the hype. I felt that he was overbet in the last pool for what he had accomplished and I expect the same in this pool. I like horses who have proven that they can win in races longer than one mile (two-turns).

What am I going to do? I already placed a $20 bet on Texas Red in Pool #1 that will payout $302 if he wins. In this pool I am going to place $20 to $40 on Dortmund (horse #6) depending upon his live odds on Saturday morning. If only place $20 on Dortmund I will be looking for value and a price for any of the above horses.

Below is a ranking of the average Beyer Speed Figures of my top eight horses last two starts. Ties are broken by the higher speed in the last start.

Ranking By Average Beyer Speed Figures of Last Two Starts:
1) American Pharoah  101
2) Upstart  100
3) Dortmund  97
4) Texas Red  97
5) Carpe Diem  92
6) International Star  91
7) Ocho Ocho Ocho  86.5
8) Far From Over  82

You can follow the Future Wager Pool #3 Live Odds by clicking HERE.

You can see the full Kentucky Derby point standings by clicking HERE 

2015 Kentucky Oaks Future Wager Pool

For the Kentucky Oaks Future Wager Pool, I would recommend one filly only: Condo Commando. She has already won at the Oaks distance of 1 & 1/8th mile and she demolished that field in the Demoiselle Stakes winning by 11 1/2 lengths (shown below). She is listed as 8-1 Morning Line Odds and also coming off a win in the Busher Stakes. Take Charge Brandi was listed at 6-1 odds. She has a tremendous heart but I feel that Condo Commando is the more proven commodity at this point having won at 1 1/8th mile distance. So I am placing $20 on Condo Commando (horse #4) in  this Pool.

You can follow the live Kentucky Oaks Future Wager Pool Odds by clicking HERE

You can see the full Kentucky Oaks point standings by clicking HERE

Pursuit of The Roses – What to make of the Derby Trail races this past weekend

Posted on by Michael J. Cox

This past weekend (February 21st and 22nd) gave us more useful information for determining this year’s Kentucky Derby field.

Who’s in the Derby?

The following horses have enough points to guarantee their entry into the Kentucky Derby:

1) International Star – 71 points
2) Itsaknockout – 50 points
3) Upstart – 36 points

Due to injuries, performance reasons and schedule conflicts, many horses who have enough points aren’t entered in the Kentucky Derby. The following horses historically have enough points to gain entry due to these reasons

4) El Kabeir – 25 points
5) War Story  – 24 points
6) Far Right – 22 points
7) Dortmund – 20 points

Overall, I wasn’t overly impressed with any horse this past weekend in the point paying Derby races. In the Fountain of Youth shown below, all the horses looked like they were really laboring to the finish line in this 1 & 1/16th mile race. Upstart had his win taken away due to interference and veering out into Itsaknockout’s path. There was a clear violation, but I am not convinced that it would have changed the finishing order. It certainly would have made it a closer race. Even if Upstart’s win was upheld, this race wasn’t as impressive as his last start in the Holy Bull Stakes. So this begs the question, has Upstart peaked? Nevertheless, he should be one of the race favorites for the Florida Derby.

Itsaknockout is now undefeated in three starts. Once highly regarded Frosted finished 4th.

In the Risen Star Stakes, International Star established himself as a serious Kentucky Derby contender with his second consecutive win at the Fairgrounds. I had initial concerns last fall that he was a horse that preferred turf, but all those doubts have been erased now. He should be the race favorite for the Louisiana Derby and has a good pedigree. International Star’s sire Fusaichi Pegasus won the 2000 Kentucky Derby. However, he has yet to dazzle us with  impressive Beyer Speed figures. He earned a 90 Beyer Speed Figure in the Lecomte Stakes and a 93 in the Risen Star.

But he is improving, not regressing and that is the most important element at this time of year. But the big question for him now—is he a rising star that had only been racing to the level of his competition?

Race favorite Imperia has a disappointing 5th place finish,

The Southwest Stakes established Far Right as the early favorite for Arkansas Derby by beating race favorite Mr Z. The wet sloppy track at Oaklawn Park on Sunday should have hindered his closer style. But once again, under jockey Mike Smith, he managed to beat Mr Z to the finish line. Far Right is a very good horse but like International Star, he has yet to dazzle us with eye-popping speed figures. Mr Z is establishing himself as a herd runner who will finish up near the front with the lead pack but not win. A better name for him would be “Close But No Cigar”

I really loved the second-place performance from The Truth Or Else under jockey Calvin Borel. This was his first start in a race longer than 1 mile and he looks like he loved the added distance. So I expect him to be a contender to American Pharoah in the upcoming Rebel Stakes.

In Other Races…

I was really impressed with the Todd Pletcher-trained horse Khozan who absolutely demolished the field in Race #5 at Gulfstream Park this past Sunday. He is a late bloomer braking his maiden in his first start in a 7 furlong race at Gulfstream Park on January 24th.

My next blog coming up this Thursday will focus on the Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool #3 and the first Kentucky Oaks Future Wager Pool.

Who do I think will be dropped from Pool #2 in Pool #3? Lord Nelson, J S Bach, Gorgeous Bird and Possibly Mr Z due to the expected lack of interest from bettors.

Here is who I think will be added in their place: Far From Over, Metaboss, Divining Rod and The Truth Or Else

–Michael