Holy Bull Horse | Mike's Derby Picks

The Crazy Money In Horse Racing

Posted on October 30, 2019 by Michael J. Cox

Reviewing my Facebook memories yesterday, I stumbled upon some pictures I took of my son Anthony and I’s trip to Lexington, Kentucky in 2015 for the Breeders’ Cup World Championships. We were there to see American Pharoah win the very first Grand Slam of Thoroughbred racing.

As a part of this trip, we took horse farm tours that I highly recommend to anyone visiting Lexington. I was saddened when I saw this picture of Holy Bull (shown below) that I took on my tour. Holy Bull passed away in 2017 at the ripe old age of 26. He loved visitors to his stable and he seemed to know that he was still sort of a big deal.

Now onto the mian point of this article, the crazy money in horse racing. As many of my readers already know from some of my previous blogs and articles on US Racing, I have been real critical of the foolish money thrown around for unproven yearlings and 2 year-olds. Millions of dollars are spent every year in these auctions.

Everyone thinks they have done their homework and are bidding on the next Kentucky Derby winner based on its pedigree, physical characteristics and demeanor during auction presentation.

I am used to seeing classic cars sold for hundreds of thousands of dollars and I understand that mostly. But some of these young horses fetch over seven figures in auctions. Yes that is right. One million dollars for totally unproven yearlings. Perhaps the best example of this is the American Pharoah filly who went for $8.2 million dollars last month in the Keeneland September Sale last month. See: https://www.wave3.com/2019/09/11/american-pharoah-filly-sells-record-million/

Here is a good story. One of the tours took us to the same farm and horse stable where Zenyatta was born and raised. At this stable, the opportunistic photographer in me took the picture below of one of the stalls that housed a weanling. From memory, this was the same stall where Zenyatta was born. I had hoped to potentially capture greatness in its infancy.

When reviewing this picture, I decided to research and see what became of this unnamed weanling, born 3/19/2015, whose sire was Bernardini and whose dam was Zardana.

This weanling from Bernadini and Zardana was sold for $520,000 under the name Dominant Strategy in the same 2016 Keeneland Yearling September Sale as Justify. Justify was sold for $20,000 less at an even $500,000 See Hip 149 and Hip 50 in the auction results linked here: https://www.bloodhorse.com/…/keeneland-2016-september-yearl…

Justify was the 13th Triple Crown Champion.

Dominant Strategy won two turf claiming races at Saratoga for trainer Chad Brown http://www.equibase.com/profiles/Results.cfm…

This is why I cringe when I see a million dollars spent on a yearling or a 2 year-old. It’s always a crapshoot.

Here is what recent Kentucky Derby winners sold for in auctions. I excluded this year’s Derby winner because it was debacle:

2015 – American Pharoah – $300,000 as a yearling
2016 – Nyquist – $230,000 as a yearling, $400,000 as a 2 year-old
2017 – Always Dreaming – $350,000 as a yearling
2018 – Justify – $500,000 as a yearling

I have always felt that one of my most untapped talents would be budget racehorse buying in auctions. I can’t save you hundreds of dollars on your auto insurance. But I feel that I could justify (no pun intended) a six figure salary identifying bargains.

With all the foolish dollars spent in horse racing, why don’t they have capologists like they do in professional sports? The capologist’s job is to maintain a budget and not overpay for free agents. And how long will it be before someone develops a software program and database used for prospective horse buyers that analyzes the future earning potential of every horse up for auction?

With all the crazy money spent in horse racing, if they don’t already have some of these concepts already, it won’t be long.

–Michael

2017 Belmont Stakes Preview

Posted on June 7, 2017 by Michael J. Cox

belmont

June 7th 2017 – Updated June 10th 2017 5:00 PM CST

Below are the post-positions, jockey assignments and morning line odds for the 2017 Belmont Stakes. The race will be shown live on NBC between 5 and 6 PM CST.

Epicharis was treated for lameness on his right front leg on Wednesday and was scratched this morning, Senior Investment was treated for a muscle spasm with acupuncture and Vitamin B12.

Race Analysis: This could be a jockey race. But they will still need to have a horse underneath them that will have enough stamina to challenge at the finish. The starting gate is situated to enable every jockey enough time and room to get into the position that they desire entering the first turn. When the horses come out of the last turn, they will have traveled the Kentucky Derby distance of 1 1/4 mile. So the stretch run is where many horses start fading away and where the real race begins.

In my opinion, this race is such a toss-up that no horse should have odds lower than 5/1. Every horse has question marks:

Twisted Tom – His career best Beyer Speed Figure is 78.
Tapwrit – He never really challenged in either the Blue Grass Stakes or Kentucky Derby
Gormley – His Beyer Speed Figures have declined in every start as a 3-year-old.
J Boys Echo – Big win in the Gotham Stakes but he regressed in his next two starts.
Hollywood Handsome – His only nice win as a 3-year-old came in an allowance race.
Lookin At Lee – Extremely consistent but hasn’t won since August of last year.
Irish War Cry – Which Irish War Cry will show up? He faded badly in the Derby
Senior Investment – Only Graded Stakes win came in a talent depleted Lexington Stakes
Meantime -Last 2 starts came in the slop, has never raced on a dry track beyond 1 mile.
Multiplier – He didn’t dazzle in the Preakness with a 6th place finish
Patch – Pedigree suggests he’ll like the distance but will he have the turn of foot to win?

The pace of this race and who gets out in the early lead is the key in determining a winner of this race. However, this is uncertain. I don’t expect to see Meantime will be out in the early lead as he did in his last two starts. I expect Irish War Cry will be near the front of the pack in the early going but question whether he has the stamina to hang on in a 12 furlong race.

I question if this race will have enough early speed at all to aid a deep closer. If not, this will hurt Lookin At Lee and Senior Investment’s chances. There are a lot of unknowns.

Irish War Cry is the best horse in this field but he extremely hit-or-miss. He could win or finish dead last.

I think I am going to wait to see the live odds to find a price. I think there are about 6 horses that I could see winning this under the right scenarios: Irish War Cry, Lookin At Lee, Gormley, Tapwrit, Meantime and Patch.

I am leaning towards Meantime and Patch.

2017 Belmont Stakes – Post-Time 5:37 PM CST

1) Twisted Tom (20/1) – The 3-year-old gelding trained by Chad Brown is coming off a nice win in the Federico Tesio Stakes (shown below). He has won three straight races in a row and has had seven weeks off since his last race.

Career: 6 Starts 4-0-0-1 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 0
Last 3 starts: 1st–>1st–>1st
Sire: Creative Cause
Trainer: Chad Brown
Jockey: Javier Castellano
Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 78 – Federico Tesio Stakes

2) Tapwrit (6/1) – The Tampa Bay Derby winner. He finished 5th in Blue Grass Stakes and 6th in the Kentucky Derby. He is well rested and has a pedigree that suggests that he will take to the added distance like his paternal half-brother Tonalist did in the 2014 Belmont Stakes.

Career: 7 Starts 3-1-0-0 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 0
Last 3 starts: 1st–>5th–>6th
Sire: Tapit
Trainer: Todd Pletcher (2007 & 2013 Belmont Stakes Winning Trainer)
Jockey: Jose Ortiz
Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 96 – 2017 Tampa Bay Derby

3) Gormley (8/1) – The Santa Anita Derby winner. Same owner/trainer combination (Moss/Shirreffs) as Zenyatta, 2006 Kentucky Derby winner Giacomo and Royal Mo. He has been training well of late.

Career: 7 Starts 4-0-0-1 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 0
Last 3 starts: 4th–>1st–>9th
Sire: Malibu Moon
Trainer: John Shirreffs
Jockey: Victor Espinoza (2015 Belmont Stakes Winner)
Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 94 – 2017 Sham Stakes

4) J Boys Echo (15/1) – The Dale Romans-trained Gotham Stakes winner. His 102 Beyer Speed Figure that he received for the Gotham Stakes win still ranks near the top of the best Beyers for this class. He has regressed some since that race, finishing 4th in the Blue Grass Stakes and 15th in the Kentucky Derby. However, he has the talent and pedigree to win this race. Although his sire Mineshaft didn’t compete in the Belmont Stakes, his grandsire, A.P. Indy, won the race in 1992.

Career: 7 Starts 2-1-1-2 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 0
Last 3 starts: 1st–>4th–>15th
Sire: Mineshaft
Trainer: Dale Romans
Jockey: Robby Albarado
Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 102 – 2017 Gotham Stakes

5) Hollywood Handsome (30/1) – He finished 4th in the Louisiana Derby and 5th in the Illinois Derby. His sire Tapizar was a “miler”, so his 30/1 morning line odds are deserved.

Career: 9 Starts 2-0-3-2 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 0
Last 3 starts: 4th–>5th–>1st
Sire: Tapizar
Trainer: Dallas Stewart
Jockey: Florent Geroux
Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 88 – Churchill Downs 5/20/17

6) Lookin At Lee (5/1) – The Steve Asmussen trained colt is a consistent horse having finished in the Top 4 in the Arkansas Derby, Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes. He a deep closer racing style that worked well for Asmussen’s Creator in last year’s Belmont Stakes. However, deep closers don’t win the Belmont Stakes very often. I wrote an article on his longshot chances in the Kentucky Derby for US Racing (SEE). I don’t see a win here but he is too consistent not to include in your exotic bets.

Career: 11 Starts 2-3-2-2 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 0
Last 3 starts: 3rd–>2nd–>4th
Sire: Lookin at Lucky
Trainer: Steve Asmussen (2016 Belmont Stakes Winning Trainer)
Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr (2016 Belmont Stakes Winner)
Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 98 – 2017 Kentucky Derby

7) Irish War Cry (7/2) – The son of Curlin and winner of the Wood Memorial. He should be one of the top favorites on the tote board. His sire Curlin lost the 2007 Belmont Stakes by a head to Rags to Riches.

Career: 6 Starts 4-0-0-0 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 0
Last 3 starts: 7th–>1st–>10th
Sire: Curlin (Finished 2nd in the 2007 Belmont Stakes)
Trainer: Graham Motion
Jockey: Rajiv Maragh
Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 101 – 2017 Wood Memorial

8) Senior Investment (12/1) – The Lexington Stakes winner. He followed up this effort with a surprising third place finish in Preakness Stakes. I don’t like Preakness Stakes runners as a potential Belmont Stakes winner.

Career: 9 Starts 3-0-2-1 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 0
Last 3 starts: 6th–>1st–>3rd
Sire: Discreetly Mine
Trainer: Ken McPeek (2002 Belmont Stakes Winning Trainer)
Jockey: Channing Hill
Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 89 – 2017 Lexington Stakes

9) Meantime (15/1) – Finished 2nd in the Peter Pan Stakes at Belmont Park. That was run on sloppy sealed track conditions at Belmont Park. With jockey Mike Smith aboard, you’ve got to like his chances of pulling a mild upset.

Career: 4 Starts 1-2-1-0 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 0
Last 3 starts: 3rd–>1st–>2nd
Sire: Shackleford (Finished 5th in the 2011 Belmont Stakes)
Trainer: Brian Lynch
Jockey: Mike Smith (2010 & 2013 Belmont Stakes Winner)
Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 91 – 2017 Peter Pan Stakes

10) Multiplier (15/1) – The Illinois Derby winner, he finished 6th in the Preakness Stakes and received 94 Beyer Speed Figures for both performances. He will have 2014 Belmont Stakes winning jockey Joel Rosario on board so he should be more of a factor than he was in the Preakness. However, I don’t like the chances of a win for any of the Preakness Stakes runners.

Career: 5 Starts 2-1-1-0 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 0
Last 3 starts: 1st–>1st–>6th
Sire: The Factor
Trainer: Brandon Walsh
Jockey: Joel Rosario (2014 Belmont Stakes Winner)
Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 94 – 2017 Preakness Stakes

11) ~~Epicharis (Scratched)~~ – The Japanese horse finished 2nd in the UAE Derby, getting nipped at the finish line by Thunder Snow. I think this is a talented horse with “hit the board” potential but I just don’t see him shipping in and winning a 12 furlong endurance race.

Career: 5 Starts 4-1-0-0 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 0
Last 3 starts: 1st–>1st–>2nd
Sire: Gold Allure
Trainer: Kiyoshi Hagiwara
Jockey: Christophe Lemaire
Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: N/A

12) Patch (12/1) – The one-eyed Pletcher-trained colt was the sentimental favorite on Derby Day. I wrote an article on him that can be accessed by clicking HERE. He has the needed rest, the pedigree, trainer and jockey to win the Belmont Stakes.

Career: 4 Starts 2-1-0-0 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 0
Last 3 starts: 1st–>2nd–>14th
Sire: Union Rags (Won the 2012 Belmont Stakes)
Trainer: Todd Pletcher (2007 & 2013 Belmont Stakes Winning Trainer)
Jockey: John Velazquez (2007 & 2012 Belmont Stakes Winner)
Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 89 – 2017 Louisiana Derby

RIP HOLY BULL

Sad news…one of the great racehorses in the last century, Holy Bull, had to be euthanized Wednesday June 7th. I saw him in a horse farm tour in October of 2015 and he still seemed feisty and full of life.

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–Michael